Afternoon Folks,
I appreciate this is an early start for the thread this year, since entries don’t close for a few weeks yet, but it is an unusual situation with Tiger Roll aiming for an unprecedented hat trick.
Importantly from my perspective, making the (pretty safe) assumption that he’ll carry top weight if he runs (regardless of possible weights compression and competition), even with the best possible prep under his belt having recovered from his setback, my model rates Tiger Roll, carrying 11.10, at best as “strong run but no cigar”.
That’s the first time in 3 years that the model I’ve used has not given him a winning chance. Having painfully passed him by in the last 2 GNs I’m aiming to use his strength in the ante-post market this time to an advantage by (hopefully) exploiting a little value elsewhere - value that could disappear at any moment, of course, should the Tiger’s return from injury be derailed (or ultimately should O’Leary take exception to the GN weights).
With that in mind, based on assessments of probable GN stat-ratings at the Off, my main ante-post wager is on:
ELEGANT ESCAPE each-way at 28/1 (Bet365 – 5 places ¼ odds)
While his stat-rating may be relatively stronger or weaker when all moving parts come to rest, its winning calibre is robust to key variables: Tiger Roll’s participation, weights, going and (barring a serious mishap) his prep.
Naturally I’m making an assumption about EE’s participation but the GN would seem his natural target and, having given him a GN entry last year and later concluding that he’s “just a gear short” of being a Gold Cup contender, one would think it's very much in connections' minds - that’s not to say he won’t have a GC entry again of course as one prep option but, for me, his perfect (sole) prep race would be the (post-GN weights) Denman Chase.
I’ll write up his stat-profile in due course but he’s currently top of the pile for me and sure to be on my betting slip if lining up on 4 April. Most unlikely to be as long as 28s then, regardless of whether the Tiger also lines up.
Comments
good stuff Peanuts
Evening folks - a quick update, a heads up re tomorrow’s big race at Warwick and, if you’re an insomniac, a little something to send you off blissfully to the land of nod – an explanation of the “pedigree factor”, introduced to my model prior to last year’s GN.
As anticipated, Elegant Escape is one of 31 entered for the Gold Cup. Tizzard’s confirmed he’ll go straight to Cheltenham and that the GC “will be his prep race for Aintree." Just a safe spin round would do nicely stats-wise and he’ll head to the GN (22 days later) after 4 runs in the season (his lightest campaign to date).
Earlier in the week, Gordon Elliott reported Tiger Roll is “in great nick and will definitely make Cheltenham”. He could easily roar again in the Festival XC at level weights but, as already noted, loaded with the maximum, my model predicts that The Tiger will finally be tamed at Aintree.
Tomorrow’s Classic Chase at Warwick
Much further down the weights something interesting could be brewing at Warwick tomorrow, in the 29f Classic Chase at 3pm, though caution is advised. Runners include several which could have GN entries and the race does have some recent form as a GN prep, with winners in 2017 (One For Arthur) and 2018 (Milansbar) winning and placing in the subsequent GN.
Le Breuil (6/1) heads Saturday’s weights and has been tipped by many for the GN (33/1) since his win in the controversial 4m novice chase at the last Festival (Tiger Roll and Rathvinden both former winners). He handled the GN fences well enough in December’s Becher Chase (20L 7th) though he did fold a bit tamely. In any event, according to my model, even a win tomorrow would leave his stat-profile short of GN winning calibre.
It’s the top 2 in the market tomorrow that I’m keeping a very close eye on (though favourites have a pretty lousy record in this race). Both are currently 50/1 for the GN (courtesy of Bobs’ mob but it's antepost, not NRNB - SkyBet are not quoting). In either case a win would guarantee the rating required to line up at Aintree, should connections so wish. Moreover, a win or near-miss would turbo-charge either’s stat-profile to GN winning calibre. They are:
Pedigree – the “X” factor
In case anyone's interested, I’m briefly going to explain a new stat that, after much research, I incorporated into my “new model”, used for the first time for the last GN and, with minor tweaks, in use for this one - that is “pedigree”.
It was this factor that in hindsight explained what had been a “black swan” for my old model – the very near miss by Pleasant Company in 2018.
There are a couple of aspects to this new factor but the most significant is the presence on a runner’s dam-side (the dam’s family being considered the principal source of stamina for a racehorse) of a specific genetic-line – that of the French staying hurdler and leading sire of the mid-20th C, Wild Risk.
Wild Risk’s genotype, when conveyed via certain sons and daughters, is unusual and tends to bestow stamina at speed (if you're a real saddo like me, it's described in Ken McLean’s 2006 seminal study of racehorse breeding “Designing Speed in the Racehorse”).
McLean’s work covers many other genetic lines important to the breeding of top racehorses on the flat (it's not remotely concerned with the GN) but there are 2 very interesting stats regarding specifically Wild Risk’s presence on the dam-side of GN runners in recent years.
1. It has increased from being present in 24% of GN runners (2005-12) to 49% (2013-2019).
2. Whereas from 2005-12, these runners contributed 31% of GN winners and runners-up (broadly in line with representation), since the GN course changes post-2012, they have contributed all 7 winners (though it's 6 really, given the Tiger’s feat) and 5 of the 7 runners up, all of which finished <5L as it happens (that’s 86% of first 2 home from 49% of fields) – a material outperformance in anyone's book.
Why there's been an increasing presence of runners with the “Wild Risk Factor” is anybody’s guess – it's most likely simply the coincidental result of evolving breeding patterns.
That there's been since 2012 a marked outperformance (as regards GN winners and runners up) by runners with the Wild Risk Factor would seem most likely to be the result of the GN now being a stamina test with more emphasis on cruising speed and (relatively) less on jumping prowess - perhaps markedly so, judging by Magic Of Light’s exploits when close 2nd last time.
Clearly, given current c.50% representation in GN fields, it’s not sufficient to have Wild Risk in your pedigree (a lot more is needed on a CV) but it’s looking like a significant ingredient in the recipe for success in a “modern day” Grand National.
You may not be surprised to learn that Elegant Escape has the Wild Risk "X Factor" (but plenty more to boot), as does The Conditional and Kimberlite Candy. Sweet!
Still awake?
Capt. Chaos took no prisoners setting the pace and, though he travelled well, The Conditional clearly didn't see out the trip.
Soft (GS places).
He will likely need an awful lot of horses to come out, but I would be intrigued to see how Cogry would perform in the GN. A very, very game horse who has won beyond three miles on various occasions, while the evident change in the nature of the fences (for safety) could well be to his advantage, as he hasn't always jumped too fluently. 50s are available with bookies, while the exchanges are in the small triple figures. Powder still very much dry for now though.
Walk in the Mill would give a good account of himself but at 20s, that's a bit skinny. Based on odds offered vs exchanges and other bookies, if you can get more than £3.65 on with Bob's lot, then there appears to be some value in Le Breuil at 50/1. One other bookie offers 40s, no others offer more than 25s or 33s. He won the 4-miler at last year's Cheltenham Festival, and today's run - in the race won by Kimberlite Candy - can be excused after being hampered and left with no chance. Trip could be a bit long for now though, as he's only 8.
Agree with your ruminations re Cogry. He's had such a weird career - so near yet so far in many ways but he's never been in better form and is not too old to figure as an 11 yo. 11 runners aged 11~13 have made the first 5 home (2 as winners) since 2013. Running style, with the pace, suits of course.
For what it's worth, he has the "X" Factor on his dam-side and that 3m2f chase he won at Cheltenham in Dec (for 2nd year running) was the same race won by Mon Mome in his 2009 GN-winning season.
Obviously had his issues jumping but wouldn’t be specifically worried he departed early on only sighting of the fences to date (2016 Becher) - Pineau De Re did likewise before his 2014 win.
NT-D's confirmed the GN as the target (not surprisingly) and you'd be disappointed not to get in with OR144 (OR143 guaranteed it last 2 years but 145 was needed in 2016). If Tiger Roll runs that would surely mean just 10-00 on his back, even with compression. In theory he could be 4lbs O/H, but I can't believe the handicapper won't knock 2 or 3lbs off Tiger (and some off Bristol De Mai and Native River if they're entered) to avoid O'Leary being an even bigger arse than he is every day of the week.
From my model's perspective, enough on his CV at 28-32f such that he just needs a safe prep somewhere to complete a nice stat-profile with definite place potential (strong if it's a win or near-miss but not raising his mark) but likely to be the bridesmaid once again.
One to keep an eye on for sure from an e/w value perspective.
So, unsurprisingly, the handicapper has hiked Kimberlite Candy 10lbs for his romp home on Saturday, to OR150. That assures a run on 4 April if connections so wish.
Unfortunately for Walk In The Mill, he's copped an extra 3lbs (also to OR150) as a "collateral" rise, owing to KC's win and their proximity in the Becher. Still puts him theoretically 7lbs well in with KC at 26f but, over the the extra mile, that advantage may prove illusory.
Anything is possible when it comes to the handicapper and the GN but, given that O'Leary could withdraw him if his mark's not reduced ("compressed") and that all those with OR147 or less would run from out of the handicap, I think it's highly likely that Tiger Roll's mark will be dropped when the GN weights are announced in Feb.
Bristol De Mai was entered last year also with a prevailing OR172 and he was dropped 4lbs to OR168, but he wasn't proven around the GN course so I can't see he how a drop to less than OR168 could be justified. Assuming that 4lbs is the most that Tiger's OR is likely to drop, that would mean WITM and KC would be due to carry 10.06 - less if the handicapper were less generous to Tiger and probably more if Tiger doesn't run.
WITM carried 10.04 (OR144) last time when 16L 4th and, while his stats indicate he should go well and (if avoiding misfortune) could make the frame again, it's difficult to see why he should fare materially better this time.
OR150 won't dent KC's winning-calibre GN stat-profile - the one issue being that he would much prefer soft ground. Whether GN-style Good to Soft would disadvantage him critically is the big unknown. He didn't look comfortable last season in the 4m Eider (14.5L 5th) on quicker ground but he's only 8 and has clearly progressed this season.
Others:
Le Breuil -3lbs to OR145 (should make the cut)
Crosspark -2lbs to OR142 (touch and go - unlikely)
The Conditional -2lbs to OR140 (no chance)
Further update on another ante-post dabble shortly.
Having cashed out at a loss (a bit less than expected – cheers Bob. I guess, ominously, that means you welcome my custom
) on The Conditional after Saturday’s race, my AP ticket for
the GN was looking thus (e/w with Bet365, 5 places ¼ odds):
There is certainly value to be had elsewhere with Tiger heading the market but, as we’re still waiting on entries (later this month) let alone weights (mid-Feb), acting on my model's first cut at the race is obviously based on some key assumptions. So I’m only going to add a 3rd now if (in my view) there's a seriously appealing risk-reward.
EE’s winning-calibre stat-profile is robust as regards ground (and weight-rise, though a tad weaker if he carried more than 11.06 [should now be 11.00~11.04 depending on whether Tiger's OR is compressed]), KC’s is appreciably stronger on soft but still viable on GS, according to my model. Despite also much preferring soft ground, there’s one more that IMO stands out as being too tasty to resist taking a nibble ....... so I've added:
Not even a quote on Betfair, which is surprising given Nicholls’ comments after YE’s fine close 3rd, lumping 11-07 but staying on in the (now 30.5f) Welsh National on Heavy last time out:
“Giving all that weight away he ran well. I’ve got to persuade the owner to let me run him in the Grand National. He is just like Neptune Collonges – he stays and stayed on strongly. To me he would be ace around Aintree and they make sure it is soft around there. He doesn’t have to have a bog and Aintree always has plenty of cut in it now.”
Unlike Neptune Collonges (who won with 11-06 in 2012), if Tiger Roll lines up, even with 4lbs weight compression, YE would carry <11 stone at Aintree (assuming he retains his current OR157, +2lbs for Chepstow). By the way, at current ratings, that would put him 9lbs “well-in” with Potters Corner (also GN-targeted - best-price 33/1). Assuming a safe prep (he's entered for a 28f chase at Taunton on Saturday) and that he’s sub-11.00 on 4 April, my model gives him a winning chance on Soft and strong place potential on GS, though the strength of his chance would be slightly impaired if 11.00+.
Obviously, at 66/1 there are risks attached.
Will his owners let him take his chance? Who knows but, personally, I can’t see why you’d move a 10 yo staying chaser (who's already done well for you) to Nicholls if you’re not prepared to shoot for the biggest prize of all, given that Grade 1's out of reach (no GC entry this time).
As regards GN ground specifically, I don’t agree with Nicholls' comment. “GN Good-to-Soft” may be appreciably slower than typical pre-2013 GNs but it can still be on the quick side, as the RP’s time-based assessments of the ground (as “Good” for 4 of the 5 GNs since 2013 run on officially Good to Soft) indicate.
However, I do have sympathy with his view that YE doesn’t need a bog to perform. He’s never won on Good ground (and struggled on it in the 28f GNTrial at Haydock last year) but, in his first run this season, he travelled and jumped the stiff Newbury fences well at a decent clip (with the pace, carrying 11-07) over the first 2¼ miles of a Hennessy run on GS, but in a time fast of standard. He got outpaced and swallowed up by younger and speedier steeds approaching the home bend but there’s another mile to run in a GN and, providing he takes to the fences, it's not unreasonable to figure he could be competitive with any reasonable juice in the ground (i.e. proper GS).
There's only upside if it's softer and, for what it's worth, the long-range forecast for Liverpool from Accuweather (obviously a sizeable margin of error applies) shows a consistently wet end to March and a consistently wet start to April. Maybe connections would scratch him if it were quick ground but what’s for sure is that he’d be going off at a fraction of 66s if it were to come up soft (as it did in 2016 and 2018).
Elegant Escape has had a 2lb (collateral - The Conditional) drop to OR162.
oops yes you can
He's now 20s with Bob's mob (25-33 with others). Soft ground would be preferred for YE (though I strongly suspect genuine GS would be fine), so I certainly wouldn't add him this far out at current prices. Yet to confirm he'll even be entered, though Nicholls is very keen on a GN tilt and he was given an entry last year by Venetia Williams.
Elsewhere on Saturday, Magic Of Light won nicely on testing ground over hurdles. Seems like this genuine mare's stamina is bottomless and she's now 16-20s to go one better than last year in the GN. She'll take in 2 more preps beforehand, including the Mares hurdle at the Festival. Trainer and jockey believe the 9 yo's improved this season and they may well be right but she'll need to have done, given the probable weights.
At Haydock, Vintage Clouds managed to stay upright and ran out a convincing winner of the 26f Peter Marsh at Haydock (heavily eased at the line). He's not taken to the GN fences in 2 attempts and won't be lining up there. Definitly Red stayed on to be 2nd (slightly flattered by the 7L margin). He was badly hampered and put out of the race early in his only GN run 3 years ago and has been attracting money since his 4th (15L) in December's Becher Chase - now generally 25/1. A former Charlie Hall and Cotswold Chase winner and twice winner of the Many Clouds Chase round Aintree's Mildmay course, he's now OR156, down 11lbs from his peak in the handicap 2 years ago (which matched his RPR high of 167). Despite that and a win at 26f on his CV, his stat-profile's not currently strong enough to suggest he'll be in the mix at the business end on 4 April.
Another northern-trained runner, Takingrisks (last year's Scottish National winner, who took the Rehearsal Chase nicely at Newcastle last run over fences, despite a +8lb OR hike) had a reasonable spin over hurdles at Haydock, protecting his OR147 chase mark (+12lbs since the Ayr marathon) for the GN, which is his definite target. That rating should assure him a run and around 10-00 for the GN and the 11 y-o will certainly appreciate the Spring ground at Aintree but his stats aren't strong enough as yet to merit support. He was pushed out to 50s by Bob after Saturday.
More anon.
105 entries for the GN published today.
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/aintree/media/press-releases/2020/01/105-entries/
Happy to see my main 3 antepost wagers present, naturally. At the top of the handicap, Delta Work, Native River and Bristol De Mai have entries, as well as the Tiger of course.
Weights will be unveiled in a couple of weeks but, aside from the 7/1 best price for Tiger, there's already been a fair bit of support in the market for Magic of Light (20/1 - 2nd last time and in good form again this season) and Walk In the Mill (20/1 - 4th last time and recording back to back Becher Chase win in December).
However, anticipating the handicapper's verdict, of those that finished 1~6 last time, the one that's flashing away most prominently on my radar screen and scoring best according to my stat-model, is ANIBALE FLY (currently 33/1 with Bet365 5 places, ¼ odds - antepost not NRNB).
Why?
He's the only 1 of the first 5 home last April to have a lower mark now (and likely to translate to a meaningfully lower one in the GN). 5th in the GN and two 60L+ defeats this season explain that but, for purposes of studying form for this April, in my opinion you can disregard both runs (in Grade 1 company) this term - the first was over an inadequate 20f, the second when December's Savills Chase at Leopardstown turned into a sprint off the final bend and a near-blanket finish. AF lacked the extra gears on ground quicker than he'd prefer (3m on yielding too sharp for him these days) but he was only 10L down before the final fence when Geraghty stopped riding so as to look after him. It's wasn't the stinker of a run that it looks on paper.
His mark as topweight last April was OR164 but his Irish mark is now OR158 - identical to Magic Of Light’s (+7 on the GN) and Rathvinden’s (+4). It would be logical for the handicapper to mirror this parity for the GN, as the changes reflect the distances last April. Indeed, even if he compresses Tiger Roll’s mark from 172 to say 169, it would mean AF lining up effectively on level terms with all 3 of the them, compared to the last GN.
Incidentally, at OR158, he’d likely be around 12lbs “well-in” with GN4th Walk In The Mill.
OK but why's he "the pick" of the returning front 5 when he's simply on level terms with most of them?
Due to run in Sunday’s Irish GC at Leopardstown (again, 3m on Yielding and can’t argue with him being a rank outsider) but, most notably, he's swerving the Cheltenham Gold Cup, indicating that Tony Martin's and JP’s "planning" is entirely focused on Aintree, unlike in previous years, when he's made the frame in both GCs and subsequent GNs.
Last year, AF was a close 2nd (all out, staying on strongly) behind Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup, notching a new RPR high of 174 (+5 on previous high, recorded in the 2018 GC, prior to his 4th place in the GN with 11.08 on heavy). 22 days later he lumped topweight of 11.10 (under a deputising Mark Walsh) to finish a very creditable 5th (16.5L) at Aintree, behind a winner who'd also run at Cheltenham but had cruised to victory, barely off the bridle, and 3 others who'd been prepped specifically for the GN.
Still only a 10yo, he should have a lot more in the tank this time.
As we know, it’s possible to win a “modern day GN” with a big weight but as Ruby Walsh commented last year, “over 11st, every pound becomes harder to carry…..Ideally, you would be looking for a horse with 11st, or just below, to ride in the Grand National.”
If every 1lb above 11 stone is exponentially harder to carry in a GN, all other things being equal, it works just as powerfully in reverse and, if Tiger Roll lines up on 4 April, even with weight compression, AF is likely to be carrying around 11 stone - possibly even a little under. That's a materially lighter burden.
While it’s not unknown for GN winners to have had a "sighter" in the race previously (of course, it's more common for debutants to win), it’s almost unheard of for a “Pilgarlic” to lift the prize (in this context, that's a perennial placer in the GN, not a bald geezer). However, if Anibale Fly does carry around 11 stone on 4 April, according to my model, he’ll have a stat-profile with (at the very least) strong place potential and possibly with the calibre to get his nose in front. While there are GN debutants with the same or a superior stat-profile, in my view, at 33s he represents the pick off the returning runners in terms of e/w value.
Based on the market's view of his chances on Sunday, he could be at an even bigger price afterwards and, if he is, I'll be adding him to my team for sure.
More anon.
EDIT - Rathvinden's not entered
PM your knowledge is astounding, some of this it is hard to understand but you sound like you know what you are talking about when it comes to horses. I have always followed your threads on here too, both a good read and potential tips.
I don't really understand the handicapping, also the horse weights impact on OR. I don't want you to educate me or put in layman terms but keep up the good work. I am going to Cheltenham this year first time ever and I cant wait, drink/betting what's not to like.
The handicap isn't as complicated as I made it sound - apologies. You'll get the hang of it down at the Festival - some races there are handicaps (horses carry different weights according to their Official Rating, or "mark", like in the GN) but the "top-drawer" racing (Grade 1, eg Gold Cup) is at level weights. Enjoy!!
EDIT - interesting aspect to Delta Work’s win today is that, though he probably won’t run, he’ll now most likely relegate Tiger Roll as the highest rated GN entry.
Defeating 177 rated Kemboy, he is very likely to be re-rated above 172.
Framing the GN weights on 11 Feb with Delta Work as top weight sets the debate about TR’s weight compression in a somewhat different context.
Tiger Roll is also 171 in Ireland but was rated 172 here after the last GN. Adds a new angle to the GN weights' announcement next Tuesday 11 Feb but the Handicapper will cop it whatever he does with TR's mark.
Absolutely spot on. Will he have the balls to face down the O’Drearys?
Grand National weights: this is what the handicapper should do with Tiger Roll
The situation in which BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood finds himself came to mind last week, when large parts of Soho were evacuated after a half-tonne World War II bomb was discovered during building work. The leaden, heavy ordnance had not served its intended purpose and lain undiscovered for nearly 80 years.
There was a relatively happy ending in Soho, where there was a successful deactivation. Greenwood has not been so lucky. The bomb that was left under his chair has gone off.
Compression of the Grand National weights was brought in by Greenwood's predecessor in charge of staying chasers, Phil Smith. The aim was to attract more high-class horses to run in the race, by giving them lower ratings than they would be allotted in any other handicap.
The practice has been controversial and is generally seen in handicapping circles as a means for Smith to carve the Grand National in his own image. In fairness, he would be able to legitimately claim that compression has been a success. The desired correlation has been observed, although the causation is harder to prove.
Over the same period, the race's purse has swelled, while the fences have shrunk. Look at the Ebor, which draws increasingly smart types based on a hefty prize fund and an established route to the Melbourne Cup. It is hard to put the two races side by side and confidently claim that compression alone has brought the big names to Aintree.
The strong feeling is that Greenwood, who handicapped the National for the first time in 2019 and is understood not to share Smith's fondness of compression, would have quietly defused the issue within a few years. Unfortunately for him, Tiger Roll is the wrong horse – with, frankly, the wrong connections – to let the practice go out quietly. Ka-boom.
Gigginstown House Stud is owned by Ryanair chief Michael O'Leary, so it comes as no surprise that they are leveraging any perceived advantage to its full extent. It should also be familiar to note that they are ploughing on with the campaign, despite the sense that public opinion is against them. It is only the figures that matter to them. Not, in this case, counted in millions, but just a few pounds.
Naturally, they have framed their case in the most weighted terms. The campaign started straight after last year's Grand National and it is difficult not to see even the recent skirmish over Dallas Des Pictons' mark for Cheltenham – "we wouldn't cross the road with a mark like that", according to Eddie O'Leary – as a proxy war given that the same horse has since been entered at Aintree.
Racing Post handicapper Sam Walker dealt with the strict numbers a couple of weeks ago. Basically, if Tiger Roll were to be treated like a given Grand National topweight from recent history, his connections might expect up to 4lb of compression.
Of course, he is not just any topweight. He is the first multiple winner since Red Rum. Smith, when he handicapped the National, had two favourite tools: compression, and what he liked to call the Aintree factor. What he gave with one hand to top weights, he would take away from those who had previously excelled over the National fences.
Therefore, the important horse when weighing up Tiger Roll is not Bristol De Mai, nor Exotic Dancer. It is Many Clouds. He is the only Grand National topweight in recent years whose rating was based on a performance over Aintree's Grand National course, specifically his 2015 success. The extent of his compression? 1lb.
This goes for other returning winners. Ballabriggs had no compression from his mark of 160 the year after he won the National, even though the only horse with a higher rating (Synchronised) was given 6lb. In the case of Mon Mome, who was not a topweight but still carried 11st 7lb when defending his title, the Aintree factor actually held sway. He was raised 2lb.
A handicapping case for compression does exist. Most Grand National runners get their ratings from races over significantly shorter and it would be reasonable to expect a difference in the pound-per-length scale given that disparity. However, compression is a blunt instrument to address the purported issue and its days are hopefully numbered.
This year Greenwood does not need to play Gigginstown's game. Even Phil Smith, who seemed to feel an almost romantic sense of duty to the Grand National, would probably have done no more than knock off a token pound or two. If the O'Learys get even that, they should consider themselves to have been treated in line with recent history. It is predicted with confidence that will not be the case.
Now copied and pasted above.
- ELEGANT ESCAPE (now 28/1) (likely to be #1 selection on GS, assuming he carries <11-07) - 1 prep, seemingly Saturday’s GNTrial at Haydock (much better choice than the GC)
- KIMBERLITE CANDY (now 20/1) (likely to be #1 selection on Soft) - straight to Aintree
Currently next best (still evolving of course):- NATIVE RIVER (comments this evening from owners cast considerable doubt over him running in the GN unless his GC tilt is derailed)
- YALA ENKI (now 33/1) - following in Neptune Collonges’ hoof steps with a prep in Saturday’s GNTrial
I also had a speculative shilling ante-post on Ramses De Teillee at 66/1, before his recent hurdle win. He too is due to run in the GNTrial and needs to put in a competitive run there to make the team - just a safe spin’s fine for EE and Yala Enki.Neptune Collonges (age 19) .........gizza carrot
My old fella's still going at 23 - still the apple of his former trainer's eye ..... and mine
This was his moment of glory (winning the HOYS Retraining of Racehorses comp, a fair few years ago), his racing career sadly cut short by a tendon injury. Agh, what might have been.