Grand National 2020

PaddyP17 said:

@PeanutsMolloy - where do you envisage the cut-off being? 145/144 is about what it was in recent years, yes?

ELEGANT ESCAPE (8yo) – currently 28/1

#1 selection on going better than Soft and carrying < 11.07

·         EE’s mark for the GN, as expected, is OR162 and, if Tiger Roll runs on 4 April, he’ll carry 11.02 (4 of the last 10 GN winners have carried more). If not, EE could well be top-weight with 11.10 and, though dropping from #1 selection of the model, he’d still have a winning calibre stat-rating, assuming a safe prep.

·         His profile’s comparable to that of Many Clouds (won 2015 GN, also as an 8yo, with 11.09). Both notched career-high RPRs (166 for MC, 167 for EE) over 26f earlier in the campaign leading to Aintree.

·         EE is proven over further, winning 29f 2018 Welsh GN on Soft with 11.08 (OR151) - since 1991, only Native River has carried more to win the Chepstow showpiece – and in this season’s Welsh GN, with topweight of 11.12 (OR160), EE was a creditable, plugging on 6th (11.5L) over the new, extended trip of 30.5f on Heavy.

·         Based on that run, at the GN weights, he’s effectively on level terms with Potters Corner but concedes a 9lb pull to Yala Enki. However, his record on quicker ground and pedigree just give EE the edge for the GN.  

·         Versatile as to going but likely best suited by genuine GS - his highest RPR (twice 167 - with and without newly-donned blinkers) coming over 26f on GS. Most recent of those was his fast-finishing close 3rd in November’s Hennessy, again as 11.12 topweight (OR160). Though the form of that race has been questioned, it was run in a decent time (3.6s fast of standard) and the strength of EE’s finish bodes well for a mile further on comparable ground. 

·         Yet to face the GN fences but EE has 100% completion in 16 chases, with wins or near-misses over stiff jumping tracks of differing characteristics (Cheltenham, Newbury, Chepstow, Wetherby and Sandown). No doubt he’ll be schooled over GN lookalikees. Won a 20-runner chase (2018 Welsh GN) to tick the “large-field” box.

·         Made the frame 81% (13) of those 16 chases – his 2 widest-margin misses coming in Grade 1 company at the end of a busy campaign last season. After 1 prep, he’ll head to Aintree on the back of his lightest campaign to date (4 runs - in the sweet spot for GN winners’ stats).

·         That prep is likely to be as topweight in GN Trial at Haydock next Saturday – 49 days prior (fine for GN stats) and a far better choice than the GC, given that EE goes well fresh (won or near-missed on all 4 returns from 50+ day breaks). Safe spin round will suffice.

·         Pedigree

Ticks the dam-side pedigree box with the presence of quality-progeny of Wild Risk (Worden-Devon-Le Bavard) – same line as on damside of Numbersixvalverde (won 2006), McKelvey (agonisingly close 2nd 2007) and, yes you’ve guessed it, Many Clouds (2015).

And second of the Must-Haves (IMHO):

KIMBERLITE CANDY (8 yo) – currently 20/1

#1 selection on Soft

·         In contrast to EE, who was winning a Welsh GN as a 6yo, KC has taken (and been given, by astute connections) time to mature into a steeplechaser of the old-fashioned variety. He’s come of age this season, his third over fences.

·         Impressive on his seasonal bow over the GN fences in December’s 26f Becher Chase on Soft (18 runners), when a staying-on 2nd (2.5L) off OR137 to Walk In The Mill, and followed up with an emphatic win off OR140 in the 29f Warwick Classic under 11.04, also on Soft, in January. Set a new career-high RPR of 157 that day and the handicapper upped him to OR150 – his mark for the GN.

·         He’s following exactly in One For Arthur’s hoof-steps prior to his 2017 GN win (and off similar handicap marks and also an 8 yo) and, like him, will head straight to Aintree after an 84 day break – One For Arthur’s the only GN winner for 30+ years without a post-weights prep but he’s set the precedent and both Durham Edition (1990, 102 days) and Mely Moss (2000, 345 days) came within 1.25L of winning with a longer break. Importantly KC goes well fresh - won or near-missed on return from 3 of last 4 breaks of 50+ days.

·         Soft ground would improve his chances but, though he had 2 “failures” at the end of last season at 29f+ on quicker, after a sticky start in the Eider, he hung in there to come home 14.5L 5th on quickish GS. He’s a better, stronger chaser this term but the more cut the better for him, for sure.

·         2 prior runs in the season is a tad light as a GN stat - Miinnehoma (1994) the last winner with less than 3 but a number have come home 2nd since then with as light a campaign (Suny Bay, Mely Moss [none]), Clan Royal, Black Apalachi, Cappa Bleu and Pleasant Company).

·         He’ll carry 10.04 in the GN if Tiger runs, up to a probable 10.12 if not – either way, a very winnable-with burden, despite a career high OR150. One For Arthur won with 10.11 (OR148).

·         15 chases – 10 at 3m+, in which he has a 50% win or near-miss record.

·         Pedigree - not a guarantee of success, obviously, but KC’s got stayer and Grand National stamped all over his:

From the family of high-class stayer Beau and half-brother to Hawkes Point (close 2nd in Welsh GN)

Sire - Flemensfirth (sire of 3 GN runners-up – King John’s Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light)

Dam-sire - Be My Native (dam-sire of GN runner-up Black Apalachi [and Native River come to that]).