Grand National 2019
Comments
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Rock the Kasbah is well weighted and has won over a variety of distances .. might have Johnson on board who is well overdue a G N win0
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PaddyP17 said:So is Abolitionist the only one you have marked out thus far, PM?
I can't make head nor tail of it this year, bar an "obvious" Tiger Roll argument, and I suspect the flu rules are making it a tad more difficult.
Hmm, have to confess I've decided to play a waiting game this year @PaddyP17
The usual moving parts but the added big one of Bristol De Mai's participation or not. That's huge for a number of (though not all) runners (certainly according to my model) but looks like we'll have to wait 3+ weeks for the GC aftermath for T-D's decision. Especially now without Blaklion, as well as being handed the 5lb incentive, he'll surely be tempted.
Added to which, the 2 runners I would potentially back right now (both can withstand a weight-rise and go on any ground), to add to Abolitionist, are both possible/probable but not certain runners and the only bookies now NRNB are uncompetitive on price and/or e/w terms. Very frustrating but that could change anytime (first scratching is next Tuesday, so maybe then).
Watch this space.1 -
Personally i hate Cheltenham. It causes so many problems with Grand National selections. I wish they would move it to after the National. I know racing people prefer Cheltenham but for me the National is the only race that matters.0
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Shame that no GN entries line up tomorrow in the (old Racing Post) 888 Chase at Kempton (once a popular GN trial, won by Rhyme n Reason and Rough Quest before their 1988 and 1996 GN wins) and only 1, top-weight Daklondike, in the Eider at Newcastle (Comply Or Die's winning prep, also with top-weight, prior to his 2008 GN victory).
Quite a contrast across the puddle where 6 of the 7 runners in the Bobbyjo Chase (Hedgehunter's winning prep in 2005) have GN entries, including Rathvinden making his seasonal debut, the in-form mare Magic Of Light, Thyestes runner-up Alpha Des Obeaux and GN runner-up Pleasant Company - 3 of which are most certainly flashing away on the GN radar screen. Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi and Oscar Time all went well in the Bobbyjo as a prep before going very close at Aintree.
One to watch closely.1 -
I love love love Alpha des Obeaux - he's a wonderful horse - but I have my suspicions he wouldn't truly stay a National. His Thyestes run was prominent until Invitation Only breezed past him, and I get the feeling that anything past 3m5f or thereabouts and he'll flag.PeanutsMolloy said:Shame that no GN entries line up tomorrow in the (old Racing Post) 888 Chase at Kempton (once a popular GN trial, won by Rhyme n Reason and Rough Quest before their 1988 and 1996 GN wins) and only 1, top-weight Daklondike, in the Eider at Newcastle (Comply Or Die's winning prep, also with top-weight, prior to his 2008 GN victory).
Quite a contrast across the puddle where 6 of the 7 runners in the Bobbyjo Chase (Hedgehunter's winning prep in 2005) have GN entries, including Rathvinden making his seasonal debut, the in-form mare Magic Of Light, Thyestes runner-up Alpha Des Obeaux and GN runner-up Pleasant Company - 3 of which are most certainly flashing away on the GN radar screen. Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi and Oscar Time all went well in the Bobbyjo as a prep before going very close at Aintree.
One to watch closely.
Will likely have an interest on him on GN day given his price will be, I assume and hope, at least 20s...1 -
I'm ashamed to admit it but I wish Bristol De Mai would develop a very, very minor but season-ending niggle. It would greatly simply life for me.......
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Be rude not to avail oneself of 7 e/w places offered by Hills in the Eider, albeit at 1/5 the odds.
Harry The Viking tickles my fancy at 25s e/w
Ran well in it 2 years ago on Soft (4th off 1lb higher OR than today's 125) and won a competitive Borders National last time out, on GS as today off 6lbs lower mark - form of that race looking reasonable.
The old boy would do very well to get his head in front but could easily run a big one.0 -
Impressive win for Rathvinden in the Bobbyjo on seasonal bow, hauling in Alpha Des Obeaux in the home straight.
Magic Of Light UR'd. Pleasant Company NR (ground).
Rathvinden will head to Aintree if coming out of the race OK, Mullins stays post-race.
Pleasant Company may have his prep at Naas in the Leinster National on 12 March (Rare Bob 2013 and Goonyella 2016 ran well in that, prior to placing 5th at Aintree).0 -
Missed Approach scratched because of injury - should be back for next season.
Shame - had a squeak.0 -
Just announced yesterday's scratchings from the GN.
Following are out:- Acapella Bourgeois
- Allysson Monterg
- Auvergnat
- Ballyarthur
- Callet Mad
- Jarob
- Lieutenant Colonel
- Missed Approach
- Rogue Angel
- Skipthecuddles
- The Dutchman
- Westerner Point
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Bristol De Mai still in, as expected, so a big variable as regards the weights (and thus chances, as assessed by my new stat-model) for a number of contenders remains.
Among those whose stat-ratings are consistent with a winning profile regardless of BDM's particiption (so, relatively, their chances could improve if BDM were to come out and weights rise 4+lbs to the greater disadvantage of others) is last year's winner TIGER ROLL and the runner I've already highlighted (and backed ante-post at 50s) ABOLITIONIST - both of whom are definitely intended to line up (subject to the latter's qualifying chase run).
To give you the skinny on these 2 from my and my model's perspective:ABOLITIONIST - 33/1 ante-post 5 places (1/4), 25/1 NRNB 5 places (1/5)
- 10-01 a very appealing weight and no worries about a possible rise. Now 55~56 in the list means he’s 90% probable to make the cut.
- Made the frame 100% of 9 chases at 3m+: 1st or 2nd (<5L) in 8 of them
- Best win was a competitive Leinster National in 2017 on Soft/Hvy, which followed a good 2nd in the 2016 Troytown on Y/Sft.
- Last chase run was 3rd (15L) in a good quality renewal of the Irish GN in 2017 on decent ground, won by the high-class but sadly-departed Our Duke. Same mark (OR145) for Aintree.
- Yet to face the GN fences but, other than SU on a bend in his 2nd chase, 100% completion in 18 others.
- Good chase record in the spring and, though handles any ground, given a trip is probably most effective on a decent surface.
- Stamina evident in pedigree – from the family of quality 3-miler Merry Gale, sired by Flemensfirth (Tidal Bay and The Last Samuri among his progeny), his dam-sire was Roselier (sired 2 GN winners and countless top stayers)
- 11 y-o, bought for the 2018 GN by Dr Richard Newland (trained Pineau de Re to win 2014 GN), had to abort last year’s plan due to injury. Comfortable 3m hurdle win on racetrack return last November showed him to be in good order and trainer reports all well and ready for his qualifying chase (next Saturday in the Grimthorpe or a Veterans chase at Newbury).
- 2 runs in the season, the last 35 days prior is fine - naturally, we're relying on Newland to have him fully tuned-up by 6 April. He knows his onions and is having another good season: 29% wins (53% making frame) from 173 NH runs (ahead of his 5-year average: 23% & 48%).
TIGER ROLL - 12/1 ante-post 5 places (1/4), 11/1 NRNB 5 places (1/5)
- Nowt to say about this fella that hasn’t been said a thousand times but can he do a Red Rum and win it back-to-back, when all attempts in 45 years have failed (only 4 back-to-back winners in 180 yrs and 1 other last century)?
- At the weights, he is certainly capable of doing a Rummy. Consider these stats for handicap mark, absolute weight and form:
- Official Rating and Weight:
- Since Papillon’s win (2000), when the practice of compressing the handicap (and artificially raising the GN OR for course performers) commenced, 8 of the 12 GN winners to attempt back-to-back victories have made the first 6 home. 2 of them were 2nd. It's not "if" but "when" one will come home in front.
- Both runners-up (Hedgehunter in 2006 and Comply or Die in 2009) carried 11lbs more absolute weight (11.12 and 11.06 respectively) than when winning the prior year at OR +12 and +15.
- Tiger Roll’s OR is +9 on last year and if BDM runs as 11.10 topweight (since BDM’s OR168 will be the highest in a GN since Suny Bay’s OR169, carrying 11.13, in 1999), TR will carry 11.01, only 2lbs more absolute weight than last year. Even if BDM doesn’t run, he’d probably carry 11.05, just 6lbs higher.
- 11.05 is a big weight, especially for a small “rat of a horse”, but there have been 3 GN winners with 11.05+ since 2010 and a rise in the weights will, according to my model, disadvantage him much less than a number of notable rivals, while still leaving him with a winning stat-profile.
- Form:
- Hedgehunter had been in great form in 05/06 season – 2nd (2.5L) in the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup, 22 days prior to his gallant 2nd to Numbersixvalverde at Aintree. But Tiger Roll is only the 2nd GN winner since 2000 to return with another victory under his belt – a surprise but impressive win in a Grade 2 hurdle (said to be only 75% fit and looking like a mare in foal in the paddock). Many Clouds was the other to do so in 2016 but his failure could well, sadly, have reflected physical issues.
- Of course, Tiger Roll still has the Cheltenham XC ahead, which he won last year. A safe spin round would be fine for his GN stats but the strength of that run may decide whether he lines up as favourite or not on 6 April. In the meantime, he’s a worthy 12/1 favourite.
Will Tiger Roll be on my betting slip? Well, my not so trusty nose caused me to give him the swerve last year even though my then-model rated him as a potential winner. 12/1 as a scaled e/w bet among a "team" of interests is simply not an economic proposition for my GN betting strategy. But I wouldn't rule out altogether taking an interest in him nearer the day. That will depend on how things look when the many and significant moving parts come close to rest and how many other contenders are flashing away on the radar screen (and how appealingly).
More anon.
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Phenomenal work Peanuts. Glad to see just invoking the name Tiger Roll set you off on one!
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PaddyP17 said:Phenomenal work Peanuts. Glad to see just invoking the name Tiger Roll set you off on one!
Off on one? What this space - you ain't seen nuffin yet Chief
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Hahaha! Also - may I have your permission to paraphrase this and use it elsewhere with due credit attached?PeanutsMolloy said:PaddyP17 said:Phenomenal work Peanuts. Glad to see just invoking the name Tiger Roll set you off on one! Off on one? What this space - you ain't seen nuffin yet Chief
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Can't imagine a vote for Tiger Roll is gonna raise too many eyebrows down the boozer @PaddyP17 but be my guest. Don't worry about a credit ......I'm aiming to be incommunicado on a yacht in the Med not long after 6 April ................sans Mrs MPaddyP17 said:
Hahaha! Also - may I have your permission to paraphrase this and use it elsewhere with due credit attached?PeanutsMolloy said:PaddyP17 said:Phenomenal work Peanuts. Glad to see just invoking the name Tiger Roll set you off on one! Off on one? What this space - you ain't seen nuffin yet Chief
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Paddy giving credit to others when it comes to racing... lol!PeanutsMolloy said:
Can't imagine a vote for Tiger Roll is gonna raise too many eyebrows down the boozer @PaddyP17 but be my guest. Don't worry about a credit ......I'm aiming to be incommunicado on a yacht in the Med not long after 6 April ................sans Mrs MPaddyP17 said:
Hahaha! Also - may I have your permission to paraphrase this and use it elsewhere with due credit attached?PeanutsMolloy said:PaddyP17 said:Phenomenal work Peanuts. Glad to see just invoking the name Tiger Roll set you off on one! Off on one? What this space - you ain't seen nuffin yet Chief
I've heard it all now... :-)2 -
So a fair bit of action from GN hopefuls this weekend:
- Kelso - 3m (listed) Premier Chase (2.45) first brought to prominence as a GN prep by Ballabriggs: Black Corton, One For Arthur and Captain Redbeard compete with 2 other runners.
- Newbury - 2.5m Greatwood Gold Cup (2.40): Master Dee and Warriors Tale take on 14 others
- Newbury - 3.25m Veterans Chase (2.05): Abolitionist is one of 7 GN entries (including The Last Samuri and Joe Farrell) in the 12-strong field. He's favourite but he'll surely not be wound up to be 100%. If he does win or go very close, obviously he'll likely attract interest for the Big One but a safe spin round would do nice-enough for his stats.
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Quick update after yesterday:
- Abolitionist needed the run at Newbury (both to qualify and for fitness). A little ponderous at his fencing early-on (first chase for almost 2 years) but warmed up and was looking the business at 3m before tiring (18L 5th) - assuming all's well, a nice enough spin but clearly still work to do and wouldn't be surprised at another outing.
- The Last Samuri (PU, never going), seems likely something amiss.
- One For Arthur scratched from Premier Chase run at Kelso (unsuitable ground). Said to be heading straight to Aintree - I suspect more likely straight to retirement.
Tempus fugit, 5 weeks to the Big One...... what next?.......
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“True Believers” of GN trend-following adhere to an article of faith so strong it was surely inscribed on Moses’ tablets, ………shortly after “Thou Shalt Not Kill” but, naturally, well ahead of “Thou Shalt Not Covet Thy Neighbour’s Wife”.
Yet, on 6 April 2019, the unthinkable could happen - yes, you better believe it …… for the first time in 79 years a 7 year-old could win The Grand National.
To explain this heresy, a few points about my brand new GN stat-model (feel free to skip or use as a sleep-aid):
a) Like its predecessor, it is NOT elimination-style, so doesn’t rule out a runner based solely on 1 offending stat – no matter how robust that stat appears. Rather, it uses a Formula (designed by the fruitcake that is yours truly) to evaluate each runner’s stats (+ and -) against a range of factors to establish an overall Rating for that runner.
b) Nowt unique about that but less conventional is that, as before, the Formula is derived from the career-to-date stats not only of GN winners but of the first 6 home and it makes no distinction between a winner and a “near-misser” (<5L). Referencing near-missers has been the key to it anticipating apparent “trend-breakers”, e.g. Mon Mome in 2009 (the first French-bred winner) and Don’t Push It in 2010 with 11.05 (the biggest winning weight for 28 years) and it’s why it rates Tiger Roll, despite +9lb OR, a strong contender to defy a 45 year-old trend and win back-to-back GNs.
c) My old model (given its first spin for the 2007 GN and using a database from 1988) had been re-tuned annually after each race to reconcile better- and worse-than expected performances. But until last year, there had never been a complete “outlier” near-missing (Pleasant Company, by just a Head). Time to bow to the inevitable - either my model was knackered or changes to the GN course and distance (after 2012), and to the complexion of a typical field, had materially altered the test that is the GN and, thus, the profile of potential GN winners. Either way, tune-ups no longer cutting it - time for a tearful adieu to Mark I and a rebuild from scratch.
d) Ideally, we’d now use a database just from 2013 but a sample of 6 races is too small. We’ll get there eventually but, for the time-being, the new model is based on the 14 GNs from 2005 – when compression of the weights produced the first entire field “in the handicap” for years and which saw the first winner with 11-00+ since 1988 (Hedgehunter). New factors have been unearthed, some jettisoned and the Formula completely rewritten and subjected to back-testing - all 36 winners and <10L since 2005, including Pleasant Company, are now fully reconciled.
So, with no little trepidation (and a loud wealth-warning) I’m giving Mark II its first spin, though the 2019 renewal could hardly make for a trickier debut.
The Big Question
…… is will Bristol De Mai line up or will the weights rise by 4+lbs?
If he runs, BDM will be off the (5lb compressed) handicap mark of OR168 – the highest of any GN runner since SunyBay, off (uncompressed) OR169, carried 11.13 in Bobbyjo’s1999 GN. That year, 17 of the 32 runners ran from “out of the handicap” and the first 2 home were 14 and 16lbs “wrong” at the weights. It’s a stark illustration of how markedly the complexion of a GN field has changed in 20 years that it’s unlikely that there will be any runners out of the handicap if BDM runs this year, despite the lower top-weight of 11.10.
5lbs well-in is a big incentive to run but it will depend on BDM’s Gold Cup run and recovery, 22 days prior to the GN. So, we still have at least a 2-week wait for a decision that's crucial to my model’s Ratings of several runners.
And, of course, there’s also the other usual moving parts: final preps and the going.
Current Top Rated Runners
However, there are a handful of (definite or probable) runners that have winning stat-profiles irrespective of a weight-rise, the going and (barring catastrophe) their final preps.
Abolitionist (backed) and Tiger Roll, both with definite intentions to run, already flagged but there's another that I've decided to add to my betting slip, despite being a probable, rather than 100% definite runner. Betting strategy is a personal thing and, as always, if you have a punt, please bet only what you can afford to never see again.
And so...... the proof, beyond all reasonable doubt, that I’ve finally lost my marbles. To my betting slip, I've added …………….
[To be continued ……]
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[continued]
RAMSES DE TEILLEE (ante-post 33/1, 5 places [40/1, 4 places], NRNB 25/1) – probable runner (subject to going)
This needs some explanation because, to put it in its unexpurgated context, not only has no 7 y-o won the GN since WWII but none has made the first 5 home and none has finished within 20L of any GN winner for at least 31 years.
In 14 GNs from 2005 onwards, a total of 31 runners were 7 y-o. Of these, only 1 made the first 6 home (Big Fella Thanks, 6th in 2009). In other words, 7 y-o representation has been 5.6% of total runners but just 1.2% of those filling the first 6 places. That’s stark under-performance.
So, how should we (or even can we) assess the chances of a 7 y-o in the GN? Surely we should just put a line through them all.
Well, this is why I believe we shouldn’t do that:
- There is logic to why a young horse might underperform in a GN, given the unique atmosphere of the prelims and ensuing test (even Aintree-stalwart and 2016 runner-up The Last Samuri was noticeably unsettled before running poorly in both subsequent GNs, as a 9 and 10 y-o). “Immaturity” probably makes for greater risk of being unsettled and so is a credible reason to apply a “penalty” in a GN algorithm specifically to a 7 y-o. But to eliminate every 7 y-o would imply that, but for their immaturity, this 31-strong phalanx of 7 y-o failures had lined up with stat-profiles proportionately representative of those of any other age group.
- Back-testing my model (with no “age penalty”) shows that’s patently not the case. Of these 31:
- Only 1 had a winning stat-profile - Double Honour (2005). Actually, he ran conspicuously well for a long way (prominent from the off and 2nd when unseating at the 21st fence).
- 4 others had stat-ratings consistent with minor place potential (10~30L behind the winner). Of these, 2 broadly ran to expectations: BFT 6th (23L) in 2009 and Cause of Causes 8th (27L) in 2015. The other 2 (Tricky Trickster 2010 and Baie Des Iles 2018) still seemingly had the chance to do so before being badly hampered and put out of the race (20th and 23rd fences respectively).
- So, 3% of 7 y-o runners from 2005 had a winning stat-profile (vs. typically c. 10% of a GN field), 0% had strong place potential (vs typically c. 10%) and 13% had a 10~30L stat-profile (typically 30~40% of a GN field). Put the other way around: 84% of 7 y-o runners from 2005, irrespective of their age, had zero chance of figuring, according to their stats (vs 40~50% of a typical field).
- While 7 y-os have certainly under-performed in terms of their representation it’s far from proven that they’ve materially underperformed in terms of their actual potential, stats-wise.
An age (immaturity) penalty is probably appropriate for a stat-model and, though it’s a ludicrously tiny sample, the fact that both BFT and Cause of Causes had unimpeded runs and were about 8~15L behind “par” for their (unpenalised) stat-ratings, gives me a crude steer to the degree of penalty to apply to a 7 y-o in my model.
So, to business: what’s so compelling about RAMSES DE TEILLEE?
Put simply, despite applying this age penalty, he has by far the strongest GN stat-profile of any 7 y-o runner for at least 14 years (my old model says at least 31 years) and a winning one on any surface to boot:
- Last run, close 2nd with 11.05 in the 29f GN Trial at Haydock on GS - significantly, just 10 secs slower than standard, dispelling fears that RDT needs a soft surface (or the undulations of Chepstow) to be effective. When last run on decent ground, the first 2 home in the 2017 GNT (Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion) came in 6th and 4th at Aintree. Neither stayed the GN trip but, unlike either of them, RDT ticks a stiffer stamina box.
- Close 2nd with 11.01 to Elegant Escape in December’s Welsh GN on Soft (5lbs pull at the weights vs EE for the GN). The correlation of strong runs in Welsh and Aintree GNs is long-established and (especially with those lumping 11.00+ at Chepstow) still evident post-2012 GN race and course changes:
- Cappa Bleu (3rd at Chepstow with 11.03) = 2nd in 2013 GN with 10.11
- Teaforthree (2nd with 11.03) = 3rd in 2013 (same season) with 11.03
- Monbeg Dude (winner and 9L 4th with 11.09) = 3rd in 2015 (same season) with 10.07
- Carries just 10.05 at Aintree if BDM runs (a 4lb weight-rise won’t materially damage his rating) off OR149 - 5lbs “well-in” after his fine Haydock run, which also notched a career-high RPR158.
- 56% win and near-miss record in 9 chases at 3m+ (including those at 23.5f)
- Yet to face the GN fences but 100% completion (1st or 2nd in 70%) in 10 chases.
- 4 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior - fine
- Will he line up? Now 41st in the list effectively guarantees the opportunity and, despite original plans to wait until 2020, David Pipe’s most recent comments (“it will be hard to not go there as long as there is enough cut in the ground”) and no other entries suggest he’s Aintree-bound, assuming weather or watering keeps it no quicker than GS.
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Peanuts... How does the result of your mark 2 model compare with mark 1? Does it suggest the same horses or does it give a completely different answer? BTW I think Bristol De Mai is unlikely to run in the National. The Gold Cup is his first choice and with such a big weight he would have to be in the same league as Red Rum to win.1
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Thanks Peanuts, love reading your posts1
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Thanks Peanuts. Abolitionist & Ramses backed on Skybet nrnb.1
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Could go either way with BDM I think @len90 . Won the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chase last season only 3 weeks apart but a GC is different again certainly.len90 said:Peanuts... How does the result of your mark 2 model compare with mark 1? Does it suggest the same horses or does it give a completely different answer? BTW I think Bristol De Mai is unlikely to run in the National. The Gold Cup is his first choice and with such a big weight he would have to be in the same league as Red Rum to win.
I'd estimate a likely 80% overlap of those identified as winning potential by my old and new models but I haven't put my old slide-rule over this year's runners. Would take a while but will make the comparison when the moving parts are settled.
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RDT is a grey of course, whose last run was close 2nd in the Haydock GNT with 11.05.Covered End said:Thanks Peanuts. Abolitionist & Ramses backed on Skybet nrnb.
The last grey to win the GN was Neptune Collonges in 2012. His prior run?
Close 2nd in the GNT at Haydock carrying 11.05........ spooky!!!3 -
The Last Samuri retired - good decision. Enjoy and long and happy one old fella
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Afternoon all.
A quick update on the first 2 days racing ahead at The Festival as it may effect my GN model’s stat-ratings. Those declared to run that could meaningfully boost their ratings are:
Ultima Handicap (Tuesday):
- Vintage Clouds (win or near miss needed – GN 25/1, Ultima 25/1) [first run after wind op]
- Singlefarmpayment (win or near-miss needed – GN 50/1, Ultima 16/1)
- Royal Vacation (win or near-miss needed – GN 40/1, Ultima 33/1)
- *Noble Endeavor (win or near-miss needed - GN 50/1, Ultima 20/1)
X-Country (Wednesday):
- Ultragold (win or near-miss needed but would turbo-charge GN rating – GN 40/1, XC 10/1)
- *Bless The Wings (competitive run needed – GN 100/1, XC 33/1)
(* GN rating potentially significantly impaired if weights rise)
However, also declared for Tuesday’s Ultima is another GN entry that I've been hoping wouldn't run until the bookies offer 5+ places and ¼ odds with NRNB (alas still ante-post for those e/w terms, though a cash-out facility can come in handy).
He needs only a safe spin round to confirm his existing winning GN stat-rating (a rating that’s also resilient to a possible weight-rise and the going). Though a 20/1 shot for the Ultima, rain-softened ground will suit him and I don’t want to risk a really strong show and his GN price collapsing. So, I’ve taken the 25/1 e/w (5 places ¼, ante-post) for the GN.
Thus, alongside Abolitionist (50/1) and Ramses De Teillee (33/1), on my GN betting slip is now:
GENERAL PRINCIPLE (25/1)
- Stamina his forte (evident in breeding and chase form), making the frame in all 3 attempts at 28f+, all highly competitive and on a range of surfaces:
- 5th (17.5L) in Our Duke’s 2017 Irish GN (OR140) on Gd/Y
- Won Irish GN last year (OR139) on desperate ground (Folsom Blue would probably have won if not hampered at the last but GP would still have been a close 2nd)
- 3rd (5L) in the recent Irish GN Trial at Punchestown off OR142 on Gd/Y (his last outing, notably achieving a career-high RPR149)
- Penultimate run was a creditable 5th in January’s quality renewal of the Thyestes - moving into contention nicely until unable to match the finishing burst of classier rivals.
- Set to carry just 10-00 in the GN (in the handicap) or 10-04 at (probable) worst. OR144, up 2lbs for Punchestown but that’s no issue over the extra 6f of the GN, for which he now has a decent chance of making the cut (58~62 - though that may ultimately lie in his trainers’ hands)
- Best hurdle and chase form in April (made-frame in 83% [5 of 6 runs and in all 4 chases] – 44% at other times of the season) - the Irish GN trip twice played to his strength of course but 2 other April chase wins were over 20f and 24f, albeit on heavy and soft.
- Yet to face the GN fences but 1 F (as a Beginner) in 18 chases, otherwise 100% completion.
- A safe spin round on Tuesday would suffice for his GN stats, making 5 runs this season, the last 25 days prior – in the sweet spot.
- One of Elliott’s legion of entries (Gigginstown) but said to be Aintree-targeted.
Watching the others very closely this week and may well take a tactical (cash out-able) position on one or two.
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Hmm, purely from a stats-perspective, that run in the Pertemps (PU) doesn't alter Abolitionist's profile for the GN but the way he raced, similar to his recent chase at Newbury (i.e. travelling well until fading more than one would expect at the business end) bore the hallmarks, to my eye, of a possible breathing issue.
I have to confess I've cashed out the portion of my interest in him that's cash-outable (at break-even) in case he's scratched, as it's ante-post not NRNB. I don't expect the odds to be heading away from me if I reload.
A fair bit to digest from this week (and tomorrow's big one could see parts moving again). Above all, awaiting T-D's decision on whether BDM participates at Aintree.1 -
Hopefully it’s more that the Doctor’s stable is woefully out of form rather than a breathing problem ?PeanutsMolloy said:Hmm, purely from a stats-perspective, that run in the Pertemps (PU) doesn't alter Abolitionist's profile for the GN but the way he raced, similar to his recent chase at Newbury (i.e. travelling well until fading more than one would expect at the business end) bore the hallmarks, to my eye, of a possible breathing issue.
I have to confess I've cashed out the portion of my interest in him that's cash-outable (at break-even) in case he's scratched, as it's ante-post not NRNB. I don't expect the odds to be heading away from me if I reload.
A fair bit to digest from this week (and tomorrow's big one could see parts moving again). Above all, awaiting T-D's decision on whether BDM participates at Aintree.0 -
"He’s run a fantastic race and there’s a strong possibility he’ll head to the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree now." According to Daryl Jacob about Bristol De Mai.
You'd imagine a retained jockey would be in the know about intentions but let's see if NT-D offers any thoughts.4
