Hmm, it's well known that some horses come alive and outperform over the GN fences. Given that we're likely to have (to some degree) testing ground tomorrow (currently "Heavy" but a mix of Heavy & Soft, Going Stick 4.4 and possibly heavy showers again overnight) it's interesting that Paddy Power is paying 6 places (1/5). A maximum of 18 to line up. The last 3 Becher Chases run on Heavy had the following number of finishers: 8 from 17 runners 7 from 16 6 from 14 More to the point, PP is currently offering the best price in the market for HIGHLAND LODGE at 18/1, whose Becher record reads 8123 and has 82% completion record in 22 chases (he meets Blaklion on 8lbs better terms than when 3rd behind him last time on desperate ground). Similarly PP is joint best price of 33/1 for FEDERICI, former Ulster National winner, who's run twice over the fences - a respectable 6th at shorter and 4th in last year's Becher. He was 4lbs O/H then, as he will be again tomorrow. He has a 90% completion record in 30 chases. Money for jumping round?
Good call for Federici Peanuts .. soft to heavy ground, bottom weight, Hughes up and McCain gradually coming back to form .. Blaklion will have far too much weight tomorrow
Good call and bad luck @alan dugdale What might have been? Break even for me but a funny old race. Got to hand it to @PolzeathNick who had Walk In The Mill early at a massive price for the GN in April (sadly went lame on the morning of the race). Impressive win today. Chepstow next. Fond memories.
Nice one Peanuts, Federici ran well and snuck into 5th at 33/1. Backed him ew first 5 with VC at 33/1.
Cheers @smudge7946 and @Valiantphil Hope you left at least one of my other 2 off your slips and did better than breakeven.
I had Ew on Highland lodge and federici. I doubled my money.
What's your favourite charity peanuts?
Nice one smudge. I'll continue to tip plenty of losers so I'd suggest you bank all of it. If you absolutely insist, any local dog or animal rescue charity or phil's suggestion if you prefer. Cheers for your confidence..... to Chepstow!
Keeping a close eye on the bookies quotes for the Welsh GN, now just 8 days away.
Very keen on DAWSON CITY, who ticks all of my stat-boxes (more about those in due course) and is widely available at 50/1 but, as he needs about 16 to come out to get a run, it’s essential to wait for NRNB and, preferably, 5+ places.
• Stamina is his forte: - not-stopping close 2nd (2L) in 29f Sussex National in 2017, under 11.09 on soft - close 3rd (4L) in the 27f Somerset National last January, lumping 11.10 on heavy - strong-staying win in the 30f Devon National a month later on soft, carrying 11.06 around Exeter (similarly undulating and stiff).
• 6lb lower mark then but has run creditably twice since off his current OR133, one of those runs (at Newbury over 26f) puts him very well-in (via Thomas Patrick) with current favourite Elegant Escape (7/1) - but, unlike the Hennessy runner-up, he’s proven over the trip.
• Last run 18 days prior. Was outpaced at Kelso but stayed on well and was a never-nearer 5th (10L) in the 4m Borders National on GS. Soft ground (as looks likely) and the more testing track for the Welsh marathon should be perfect for him.
• Handled Chepstow’s fences nicely on only attempt (leading and going well when hampered by a loose horse 3 out and UR) – over 3m on heavy.
• Should carry around 10.04 – comfortably in the “sweet spot” for Welsh GN stats, even if the weights rise.
How long before the race do bookies normally go NRNB, I mostly use Skybet and Bet Victor.
@bobmunro can correct me but it varies, it seems to me, according to how competitive they're feeling. Could be any time but Confirmation stage is (I think) this Friday so should be shortly after that at the latest.
How long before the race do bookies normally go NRNB, I mostly use Skybet and Bet Victor.
@bobmunro can correct me but it varies, it seems to me, according to how competitive they're feeling. Could be any time but Confirmation stage is (I think) this Friday so should be shortly after that at the latest.
Yes I would expect us to be NRNB on Friday/Saturday - most of the others likely to be also.
Keeping a close eye on the bookies quotes for the Welsh GN, now just 8 days away.
Very keen on DAWSON CITY, who ticks all of my stat-boxes (more about those in due course) and is widely available at 50/1 but, as he needs about 16 to come out to get a run, it’s essential to wait for NRNB and, preferably, 5+ places.
• Stamina is his forte: - not-stopping close 2nd (2L) in 29f Sussex National in 2017, under 11.09 on soft - close 3rd (4L) in the 27f Somerset National last January, lumping 11.10 on heavy - strong-staying win in the 30f Devon National a month later on soft, carrying 11.06 around Exeter (similarly undulating and stiff).
• 6lb lower mark then but has run creditably twice since off his current OR133, one of those runs (at Newbury over 26f) puts him very well-in (via Thomas Patrick) with current favourite Elegant Escape (7/1) - but, unlike the Hennessy runner-up, he’s proven over the trip.
• Last run 18 days prior. Was outpaced at Kelso but stayed on well and was a never-nearer 5th (10L) in the 4m Borders National on GS. Soft ground (as looks likely) and the more testing track for the Welsh marathon should be perfect for him.
• Handled Chepstow’s fences nicely on only attempt (leading and going well when hampered by a loose horse 3 out and UR) – over 3m on heavy.
• Should carry around 10.04 – comfortably in the “sweet spot” for Welsh GN stats, even if the weights rise.
Keeping a close eye on the bookies quotes for the Welsh GN, now just 8 days away.
Very keen on DAWSON CITY, who ticks all of my stat-boxes (more about those in due course) and is widely available at 50/1 but, as he needs about 16 to come out to get a run, it’s essential to wait for NRNB and, preferably, 5+ places.
• Stamina is his forte: - not-stopping close 2nd (2L) in 29f Sussex National in 2017, under 11.09 on soft - close 3rd (4L) in the 27f Somerset National last January, lumping 11.10 on heavy - strong-staying win in the 30f Devon National a month later on soft, carrying 11.06 around Exeter (similarly undulating and stiff).
• 6lb lower mark then but has run creditably twice since off his current OR133, one of those runs (at Newbury over 26f) puts him very well-in (via Thomas Patrick) with current favourite Elegant Escape (7/1) - but, unlike the Hennessy runner-up, he’s proven over the trip.
• Last run 18 days prior. Was outpaced at Kelso but stayed on well and was a never-nearer 5th (10L) in the 4m Borders National on GS. Soft ground (as looks likely) and the more testing track for the Welsh marathon should be perfect for him.
• Handled Chepstow’s fences nicely on only attempt (leading and going well when hampered by a loose horse 3 out and UR) – over 3m on heavy.
• Should carry around 10.04 – comfortably in the “sweet spot” for Welsh GN stats, even if the weights rise.
Keeping a close eye on the bookies quotes for the Welsh GN, now just 8 days away.
Very keen on DAWSON CITY, who ticks all of my stat-boxes (more about those in due course) and is widely available at 50/1 but, as he needs about 16 to come out to get a run, it’s essential to wait for NRNB and, preferably, 5+ places.
• Stamina is his forte: - not-stopping close 2nd (2L) in 29f Sussex National in 2017, under 11.09 on soft - close 3rd (4L) in the 27f Somerset National last January, lumping 11.10 on heavy - strong-staying win in the 30f Devon National a month later on soft, carrying 11.06 around Exeter (similarly undulating and stiff).
• 6lb lower mark then but has run creditably twice since off his current OR133, one of those runs (at Newbury over 26f) puts him very well-in (via Thomas Patrick) with current favourite Elegant Escape (7/1) - but, unlike the Hennessy runner-up, he’s proven over the trip.
• Last run 18 days prior. Was outpaced at Kelso but stayed on well and was a never-nearer 5th (10L) in the 4m Borders National on GS. Soft ground (as looks likely) and the more testing track for the Welsh marathon should be perfect for him.
• Handled Chepstow’s fences nicely on only attempt (leading and going well when hampered by a loose horse 3 out and UR) – over 3m on heavy.
• Should carry around 10.04 – comfortably in the “sweet spot” for Welsh GN stats, even if the weights rise.
• 9yo – age irrelevant stats-wise
• Trainer (Polly Gundry) in decent form
More to come anon.
Dawson City now 40s on Bet365
Still 50s at Laddies.
(just to show I'm objective!!)
Now suspended on Ladbrokes. So,the 40/1 Bet365 an Betfred is best available.
Keeping a close eye on the bookies quotes for the Welsh GN, now just 8 days away.
Very keen on DAWSON CITY, who ticks all of my stat-boxes (more about those in due course) and is widely available at 50/1 but, as he needs about 16 to come out to get a run, it’s essential to wait for NRNB and, preferably, 5+ places.
• Stamina is his forte: - not-stopping close 2nd (2L) in 29f Sussex National in 2017, under 11.09 on soft - close 3rd (4L) in the 27f Somerset National last January, lumping 11.10 on heavy - strong-staying win in the 30f Devon National a month later on soft, carrying 11.06 around Exeter (similarly undulating and stiff).
• 6lb lower mark then but has run creditably twice since off his current OR133, one of those runs (at Newbury over 26f) puts him very well-in (via Thomas Patrick) with current favourite Elegant Escape (7/1) - but, unlike the Hennessy runner-up, he’s proven over the trip.
• Last run 18 days prior. Was outpaced at Kelso but stayed on well and was a never-nearer 5th (10L) in the 4m Borders National on GS. Soft ground (as looks likely) and the more testing track for the Welsh marathon should be perfect for him.
• Handled Chepstow’s fences nicely on only attempt (leading and going well when hampered by a loose horse 3 out and UR) – over 3m on heavy.
• Should carry around 10.04 – comfortably in the “sweet spot” for Welsh GN stats, even if the weights rise.
• 9yo – age irrelevant stats-wise
• Trainer (Polly Gundry) in decent form
More to come anon.
Dawson City now 40s on Bet365
Still 50s at Laddies.
(just to show I'm objective!!)
Now suspended on Ladbrokes. So,the 40/1 Bet365 an Betfred is best available.
Sorry that was me - I had 37p each way on Ladbrokes...
Only 31 entries remaining for the Welsh GN (max. field 20) after yesterday’s Confirmations. I was hoping the bookies would have entered into the festive spirit by now (going NRNB and offering 5+ places) but they’re sadly still in Scrooge-mode. I’ve succumbed regarding DAWSON CITY, as he's my No. 1 pick. Now 40s with only a couple of bookies, I’ve taken the price (4 places ¼) as he should make the cut – needs 1 to come out (and Otago Trail will surely come out at decs, with a run today). Kicking myself for waiting and missing 50s but hey-ho. He’ll be piloted by James Best (partnered him well last run), who skilfully steered Walk In The Mill to Becher Chase victory recently. Still some jockey bookings to be announced that might make a difference as to which will join Dawson City on my betting slip. More shortly. COYR
Pantomime villain Bob’s now cut Dawson City to 25s – 40s still with Fred but still no 5th place or NRNB from anyone........boo-hiss.
What am I going to add to my slip when the Ugly Sisters finally get in party-mode?
For the sane ones here you might want to cut to the conclusion, but if anyone’s sad enough to be curious about my current stat system for the Welsh GN, it’s derived from the profiles of the 41 winners and near-missers (<6L) since 1997 and is elimination-style. The key trends:
• 3m+ chase win (41/41) [Eliminate: Lieutenant Colonel] • Last run: 16-59 days (41/41) [E: Otago Trail, Final Nudge, Kansas City Chief, Holly Bush Henry, Tanit River, Two Smokin Barrels] • Last result: In first 6 home (39/41) (both exceptions had form at 29f+ at similar or higher OR and were in first 3 home on penultimate start) [E: Ballyoptic, Raz De Maree (sorry old fella, get round safe), Regal Flow, Mysteree, Mustmeetalady, Ballycross] • Stamina: Form in 26f+ chase (37/41) (3 of 4 exceptions carried <10.06 and made frame in 50%+ of 24f+ chases) [E: Rons Dream, Pobbles Bay, Back To The Thatch] • Chase Course: Form at Chepstow (28/41) (11 of 13 exceptions had never or only once run at Chepstow but had 3m+ chase form at similarly undulating British or Irish track [E: Yala Enki, Vieux Lion Rouge, Bishops Road]
What about the much-ballyhooed Age & Weight factors?
Age: forget it A bias to youth in the Welsh GN has long been a received wisdom and, from 1997 to 2012, age-adjusted for postponements to Jan, 5~9yo runners did outperform (97% of w/n-m from 77% of runners). But, remarkably, that trend has sharply reversed over the last 5 renewals: from just 18% of runners, 10yo+ accounted for 50% of the 12 w/n-m. It could be a statistical blip that will mean-revert but it would be wise to ignore Age altogether.
Weight: significant but only when 3m+ chase record considered Another “given” is that light-weights hold sway and, over the last 4 renewals, they have: runners with <10.09 produced 67% of w/n-m from 34% of fields. Yet, from 1997 to 2013, performance simply matched representation (69% from 67% for <10.09). Indeed, notably, top-weights have also performed “to par” over the long-term (7% from 6%) and contributed the winner just 2 years ago. So a simple “light weight good, big weight bad” rule doesn’t help. But a more nuanced test of weight versus staying-chase record perhaps can:
• 11.00+: 10/10 winners/near-missers since 1997 that carried 11.00+ had a 60%+ frame-making record in 24f+ chases [Eliminate: Vyta Du Roc, Folsom Blue] • 11.05+: 4/4 that carried 11.05+ had a chase win or near-miss (<4L) in a Class 1 at 29f+ or Class 2 at 32f+ [E: Elegant Escape] • 10.09~11.04: 7/9 had either done likewise or had made the frame in one of the 4 “national” GNs (both exceptions unraced beyond 26f but made frame in Class 1 25f+ chase) [E: Ramses De Teillee, Looksnowtlikebrian]
Current Shortlist: Applying the 8 stat-tests above to all 31 entries leaves me with a shortlist of 7. It’s possible that claimers could re-qualify one or two of those previously eliminated but, having considered them individually, I still prefer the 2 I'm going to add (below).
• Vintage Clouds (10/1) • Baie Des Iles (10/1) • Shanroe Santos (40/1) [a rise in weights would eliminate unless a claimer rides] • JENNYS SURPRISE (50/1 BetVictor and others) • DAWSON CITY (40/1 BetFred, generally 33/1) - needs 1 to come out • ALFIE SPINNER (40/1 WH, generally 33/1) - needs 4 to come out • Looks Like Power (50/1) - needs 9 to come out
You pays ya money you takes ya choice and here's where it can go pear-shaped for me.
Given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune oft witnessed in staying handicaps, I prefer to assemble each-way interests at prices such that a single place will deliver a modest profit (at least breakeven). It naturally inclines me towards outsiders, which is the point and fun of the exercise, of course, but it can mean having to pass on a respected serious contender. That applies this time to both:
VINTAGE CLOUDS – Certainly has the stamina to land a major staying chase one day. This could be that day but, despite his consistency at a trip and definite progression, at 10/1 he won’t be carrying my shillings. There’s a reason he’s been a bridesmaid to date – his jumping. He would have been a lot closer than 16L 4th last year (+5lbs higher mark this time, carrying 11.03) but for, yes, some bad luck but also his less than fluent fencing. Though he negotiated Haydock’s particularly stiff obstacles to a 24f win last time out, to my eye it wasn’t with total aplomb and it turned into a weak-ish contest. Nonetheless, GOOD PLACE POTENTIAL.
and BAIE DES ILES – Of the Irish contingent, Folsom Blue is clearly a major threat (like Raz DM last time, had a nice prep in a hurdle over here) and he surely would have won the Irish GN but for extreme misfortune at the last. But BDI has more consistency at the trip and form in the Welsh GN when a mere lass (staying on 23L 5th as a 5yo 2 years ago). Runs off just 1lb higher OR this time (11.01) and is likely to be there or thereabouts. But she’s only got her head in front once in 7 chases at 28f+ and 10/1 is, again, too short to make my team. GOOD PLACE POTENTIAL.
I’m also passing on SHANROE SANTOS. Winner of last month’s 28f Southern National at Fontwell with 11.10, but raised 5lbs for that to a career-high mark that looked high enough when he was beaten favourite last time out, in the London National. Never run at Chepstow but has done well at both Carlisle and Cheltenham (similarly undulating and stiff tracks). Aside from being vulnerable (stats-wise) to any weight rise, he was separately well behind Dawson City and beaten by Jennys Surprise last season, both over 26f.
But I will be adding these 2, once NRNB and 5+ places are available:
ALFIE SPINNER 40/1 (needs 4 to come out so must be backed NRNB) • Good record at Chepstow (1st or 2nd in 4 of 7 chases), including 6L runner-up in last year’s race with 10.02 (same OR132). Was piloted by claimer Richard Patrick, with whom he’s struck up a good partnership and who hopefully will be aboard again. If so he’ll take 3lbs off (and Alfie would carry 10.00 assuming Ballyoptic runs). • No doubt unfancied because of age (13yo but forget it) and tailing off (under Brendan Powell) in the Welsh GN Trial 2 weeks ago (close 2nd in it last year). It was his first run after a wind op but, more to the point, his seasonal debut. First outing last season saw a PU before his two excellent Chepstow runs. • Next week has been his stated target so, assuming nothing’s amiss, his yard (excellent record in the race: 3 wins and a runner-up since 2011) should have him spot on.
JENNYS SURPRISE 50/1 • Despite a 4lb penalty for a winning seasonal debut (guaranteeing a run), on paper she’s well-in at the weights with Pricewise selection Rons Dream, now 20/1 (1L between them at level weights over 3m on soft last April). They’re both tough mares but Jennys Surprise also has form in the book at 28f – a not-stopping close 2nd in the West Wales National at Ffos Las on heavy, also last April. Now a 5lb higher mark but will carry a very workable 10.05. • 10yo, she’s got more consistent with the years and maintained career-best RPRs through 2018 with Paddy Brennan doing the steering – hopefully to do so again next Thursday. • At her best on testing ground, she handled Chepstow nicely on her only run there as a novice. • Trained just across the Severn by Fergal O’Brien, who’s in decent form (7 winners/near-missers from last 16 runners).
Comments
Given that we're likely to have (to some degree) testing ground tomorrow (currently "Heavy" but a mix of Heavy & Soft, Going Stick 4.4 and possibly heavy showers again overnight) it's interesting that Paddy Power is paying 6 places (1/5). A maximum of 18 to line up.
The last 3 Becher Chases run on Heavy had the following number of finishers:
8 from 17 runners
7 from 16
6 from 14
More to the point, PP is currently offering the best price in the market for HIGHLAND LODGE at 18/1, whose Becher record reads 8123 and has 82% completion record in 22 chases (he meets Blaklion on 8lbs better terms than when 3rd behind him last time on desperate ground).
Similarly PP is joint best price of 33/1 for FEDERICI, former Ulster National winner, who's run twice over the fences - a respectable 6th at shorter and 4th in last year's Becher. He was 4lbs O/H then, as he will be again tomorrow. He has a 90% completion record in 30 chases.
Money for jumping round?
What might have been?
Break even for me but a funny old race.
Got to hand it to @PolzeathNick who had Walk In The Mill early at a massive price for the GN in April (sadly went lame on the morning of the race). Impressive win today.
Chepstow next. Fond memories.
Hope you left at least one of my other 2 off your slips and did better than breakeven.
I'll continue to tip plenty of losers so I'd suggest you bank all of it. If you absolutely insist, any local dog or animal rescue charity or phil's suggestion if you prefer.
Cheers for your confidence..... to Chepstow!
Very keen on DAWSON CITY, who ticks all of my stat-boxes (more about those in due course) and is widely available at 50/1 but, as he needs about 16 to come out to get a run, it’s essential to wait for NRNB and, preferably, 5+ places.
• Stamina is his forte:
- not-stopping close 2nd (2L) in 29f Sussex National in 2017, under 11.09 on soft
- close 3rd (4L) in the 27f Somerset National last January, lumping 11.10 on heavy
- strong-staying win in the 30f Devon National a month later on soft, carrying 11.06 around Exeter (similarly undulating and stiff).
• 6lb lower mark then but has run creditably twice since off his current OR133, one of those runs (at Newbury over 26f) puts him very well-in (via Thomas Patrick) with current favourite Elegant Escape (7/1) - but, unlike the Hennessy runner-up, he’s proven over the trip.
• Last run 18 days prior. Was outpaced at Kelso but stayed on well and was a never-nearer 5th (10L) in the 4m Borders National on GS. Soft ground (as looks likely) and the more testing track for the Welsh marathon should be perfect for him.
• Handled Chepstow’s fences nicely on only attempt (leading and going well when hampered by a loose horse 3 out and UR) – over 3m on heavy.
• Should carry around 10.04 – comfortably in the “sweet spot” for Welsh GN stats, even if the weights rise.
• 9yo – age irrelevant stats-wise
• Trainer (Polly Gundry) in decent form
More to come anon.
How long before the race do bookies normally go NRNB, I mostly use Skybet and Bet Victor.
Could be any time but Confirmation stage is (I think) this Friday so should be shortly after that at the latest.
(just to show I'm objective!!)
I was hoping the bookies would have entered into the festive spirit by now (going NRNB and offering 5+ places) but they’re sadly still in Scrooge-mode.
I’ve succumbed regarding DAWSON CITY, as he's my No. 1 pick. Now 40s with only a couple of bookies, I’ve taken the price (4 places ¼) as he should make the cut – needs 1 to come out (and Otago Trail will surely come out at decs, with a run today). Kicking myself for waiting and missing 50s but hey-ho.
He’ll be piloted by James Best (partnered him well last run), who skilfully steered Walk In The Mill to Becher Chase victory recently.
Still some jockey bookings to be announced that might make a difference as to which will join Dawson City on my betting slip. More shortly.
COYR
I managed to get 40s yesterday.
Pantomime villain Bob’s now cut Dawson City to 25s – 40s still with Fred but still no 5th place or NRNB from anyone........boo-hiss.
What am I going to add to my slip when the Ugly Sisters finally get in party-mode?
For the sane ones here you might want to cut to the conclusion, but if anyone’s sad enough to be curious about my current stat system for the Welsh GN, it’s derived from the profiles of the 41 winners and near-missers (<6L) since 1997 and is elimination-style. The key trends:
• 3m+ chase win (41/41) [Eliminate: Lieutenant Colonel]
• Last run: 16-59 days (41/41) [E: Otago Trail, Final Nudge, Kansas City Chief, Holly Bush Henry, Tanit River, Two Smokin Barrels]
• Last result: In first 6 home (39/41) (both exceptions had form at 29f+ at similar or higher OR and were in first 3 home on penultimate start) [E: Ballyoptic, Raz De Maree (sorry old fella, get round safe), Regal Flow, Mysteree, Mustmeetalady, Ballycross]
• Stamina: Form in 26f+ chase (37/41) (3 of 4 exceptions carried <10.06 and made frame in 50%+ of 24f+ chases) [E: Rons Dream, Pobbles Bay, Back To The Thatch]
• Chase Course: Form at Chepstow (28/41) (11 of 13 exceptions had never or only once run at Chepstow but had 3m+ chase form at similarly undulating British or Irish track [E: Yala Enki, Vieux Lion Rouge, Bishops Road]
To Be Continued...........
Age: forget it
A bias to youth in the Welsh GN has long been a received wisdom and, from 1997 to 2012, age-adjusted for postponements to Jan, 5~9yo runners did outperform (97% of w/n-m from 77% of runners). But, remarkably, that trend has sharply reversed over the last 5 renewals: from just 18% of runners, 10yo+ accounted for 50% of the 12 w/n-m.
It could be a statistical blip that will mean-revert but it would be wise to ignore Age altogether.
Weight: significant but only when 3m+ chase record considered
Another “given” is that light-weights hold sway and, over the last 4 renewals, they have: runners with <10.09 produced 67% of w/n-m from 34% of fields. Yet, from 1997 to 2013, performance simply matched representation (69% from 67% for <10.09). Indeed, notably, top-weights have also performed “to par” over the long-term (7% from 6%) and contributed the winner just 2 years ago.
So a simple “light weight good, big weight bad” rule doesn’t help. But a more nuanced test of weight versus staying-chase record perhaps can:
• 11.00+: 10/10 winners/near-missers since 1997 that carried 11.00+ had a 60%+ frame-making record in 24f+ chases [Eliminate: Vyta Du Roc, Folsom Blue]
• 11.05+: 4/4 that carried 11.05+ had a chase win or near-miss (<4L) in a Class 1 at 29f+ or Class 2 at 32f+ [E: Elegant Escape]
• 10.09~11.04: 7/9 had either done likewise or had made the frame in one of the 4 “national” GNs (both exceptions unraced beyond 26f but made frame in Class 1 25f+ chase) [E: Ramses De Teillee, Looksnowtlikebrian]
To Be Continued.........
Applying the 8 stat-tests above to all 31 entries leaves me with a shortlist of 7. It’s possible that claimers could re-qualify one or two of those previously eliminated but, having considered them individually, I still prefer the 2 I'm going to add (below).
• Vintage Clouds (10/1)
• Baie Des Iles (10/1)
• Shanroe Santos (40/1) [a rise in weights would eliminate unless a claimer rides]
• JENNYS SURPRISE (50/1 BetVictor and others)
• DAWSON CITY (40/1 BetFred, generally 33/1) - needs 1 to come out
• ALFIE SPINNER (40/1 WH, generally 33/1) - needs 4 to come out
• Looks Like Power (50/1) - needs 9 to come out
You pays ya money you takes ya choice and here's where it can go pear-shaped for me.
Given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune oft witnessed in staying handicaps, I prefer to assemble each-way interests at prices such that a single place will deliver a modest profit (at least breakeven). It naturally inclines me towards outsiders, which is the point and fun of the exercise, of course, but it can mean having to pass on a respected serious contender. That applies this time to both:
VINTAGE CLOUDS – Certainly has the stamina to land a major staying chase one day. This could be that day but, despite his consistency at a trip and definite progression, at 10/1 he won’t be carrying my shillings. There’s a reason he’s been a bridesmaid to date – his jumping. He would have been a lot closer than 16L 4th last year (+5lbs higher mark this time, carrying 11.03) but for, yes, some bad luck but also his less than fluent fencing. Though he negotiated Haydock’s particularly stiff obstacles to a 24f win last time out, to my eye it wasn’t with total aplomb and it turned into a weak-ish contest. Nonetheless, GOOD PLACE POTENTIAL.
and BAIE DES ILES – Of the Irish contingent, Folsom Blue is clearly a major threat (like Raz DM last time, had a nice prep in a hurdle over here) and he surely would have won the Irish GN but for extreme misfortune at the last. But BDI has more consistency at the trip and form in the Welsh GN when a mere lass (staying on 23L 5th as a 5yo 2 years ago). Runs off just 1lb higher OR this time (11.01) and is likely to be there or thereabouts. But she’s only got her head in front once in 7 chases at 28f+ and 10/1 is, again, too short to make my team. GOOD PLACE POTENTIAL.
I’m also passing on SHANROE SANTOS. Winner of last month’s 28f Southern National at Fontwell with 11.10, but raised 5lbs for that to a career-high mark that looked high enough when he was beaten favourite last time out, in the London National. Never run at Chepstow but has done well at both Carlisle and Cheltenham (similarly undulating and stiff tracks). Aside from being vulnerable (stats-wise) to any weight rise, he was separately well behind Dawson City and beaten by Jennys Surprise last season, both over 26f.
But I will be adding these 2, once NRNB and 5+ places are available:
ALFIE SPINNER 40/1 (needs 4 to come out so must be backed NRNB)
• Good record at Chepstow (1st or 2nd in 4 of 7 chases), including 6L runner-up in last year’s race with 10.02 (same OR132). Was piloted by claimer Richard Patrick, with whom he’s struck up a good partnership and who hopefully will be aboard again. If so he’ll take 3lbs off (and Alfie would carry 10.00 assuming Ballyoptic runs).
• No doubt unfancied because of age (13yo but forget it) and tailing off (under Brendan Powell) in the Welsh GN Trial 2 weeks ago (close 2nd in it last year). It was his first run after a wind op but, more to the point, his seasonal debut. First outing last season saw a PU before his two excellent Chepstow runs.
• Next week has been his stated target so, assuming nothing’s amiss, his yard (excellent record in the race: 3 wins and a runner-up since 2011) should have him spot on.
JENNYS SURPRISE 50/1
• Despite a 4lb penalty for a winning seasonal debut (guaranteeing a run), on paper she’s well-in at the weights with Pricewise selection Rons Dream, now 20/1 (1L between them at level weights over 3m on soft last April). They’re both tough mares but Jennys Surprise also has form in the book at 28f – a not-stopping close 2nd in the West Wales National at Ffos Las on heavy, also last April. Now a 5lb higher mark but will carry a very workable 10.05.
• 10yo, she’s got more consistent with the years and maintained career-best RPRs through 2018 with Paddy Brennan doing the steering – hopefully to do so again next Thursday.
• At her best on testing ground, she handled Chepstow nicely on her only run there as a novice.
• Trained just across the Severn by Fergal O’Brien, who’s in decent form (7 winners/near-missers from last 16 runners).
Fingers crossed. Some more rain would be nice.
Have a great Christmas.