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Grand National 2019
PeanutsMolloy
Posts: 6,737
So, assuming he's fit to run on 6 April, then-11 y-o ABOLITIONIST should line up with his current chase rating of 145. That mark would have given him 10-08 last April had injury not intervened.
Comfy hurdles win over 3m on his seasonal debut a month ago - off a low mark but pleasing return from his injury lay-off nonetheless - he by-passes the Becher Chase and will not have his qualifying chase run until after the GN weights are published.
• Never out of the frame in 9 chases at 3m+ (3 wins and 5 <5L), on a variety of going
• 3rd to the sadly-departed Our Duke in the 2017 Irish GN
• No F or UR in 19 chases
• Bucketloads of stamina in his pedigree
Many a slip twixt cup and lip but WH's 50/1 ante post (4 places 1/4) tickles my fancy.
Comfy hurdles win over 3m on his seasonal debut a month ago - off a low mark but pleasing return from his injury lay-off nonetheless - he by-passes the Becher Chase and will not have his qualifying chase run until after the GN weights are published.
• Never out of the frame in 9 chases at 3m+ (3 wins and 5 <5L), on a variety of going
• 3rd to the sadly-departed Our Duke in the 2017 Irish GN
• No F or UR in 19 chases
• Bucketloads of stamina in his pedigree
Many a slip twixt cup and lip but WH's 50/1 ante post (4 places 1/4) tickles my fancy.
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Comments
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Peanuts is back
Peanuts is back
Allo
Allo8 -
Boom !
And so it begins.1 -
Peanuts welcome. A thread we all look forward to and follow with interest.
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Forget the FA Cup nonsense this is the thread we've all been waiting for.
A big welcome as always Peanuts.
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Oh yes, here we go. Welcome back Peanuts.2
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Many thanks folks but, frankly, Peanuts (and especially Mrs M), wishes he'd stayed away until after the friggin' Hennessy
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BTW, an entirely new model being debuted this time. More anon.5
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Welcome back Peanuts.
My annual bonus thread!
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Great thread already
Look forward to your insights as ever! 1 -
We can't win em all! Great to see you emerge by starting the GN thread this far in advance. Lovely.PeanutsMolloy said:Many thanks folks but, frankly, Peanuts (and especially Mrs M), wishes he'd stayed away until after the friggin' Hennessy
Abolitionist is on the watchlist after last year's injury, and another I'll be considering is Baie des Iles, who was hampered pretty badly last year to finish weakly. A lot went against her statistically and in terms of trends then, too - at 40/1 I'm quite happy to have a small piece, but I don't know if that'll move very much any time soon, and there is unlikely to be a sea change from that sort of price to 12s like there was last year.2 -
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Cheers Paddy and many congrats on your wins on Sat.PaddyP17 said:
We can't win em all! Great to see you emerge by starting the GN thread this far in advance. Lovely.PeanutsMolloy said:Many thanks folks but, frankly, Peanuts (and especially Mrs M), wishes he'd stayed away until after the friggin' Hennessy
Abolitionist is on the watchlist after last year's injury, and another I'll be considering is Baie des Iles, who was hampered pretty badly last year to finish weakly. A lot went against her statistically and in terms of trends then, too - at 40/1 I'm quite happy to have a small piece, but I don't know if that'll move very much any time soon, and there is unlikely to be a sea change from that sort of price to 12s like there was last year.
Very rare for me to take a price this early but WH a clear outlier on Abolitionist and, with the race the definite target, ground pretty much irrelevant, weight guaranteed to be very appealing, assuming he makes the cut (would have, just about, in every GN in living memory), obviously the main issue will be his well-being and fitness. Newland knows how to get them race-ready - fingers crossed his steed stays sound.
Edit - Cut to 40s2 -
Peanuts you gave them running scared already........................welcome back1
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Ah, my favorite thread bar the Labour and Brexit ones!!!
You are the nuts Peanuts. Will be avidly reading.
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Starting this early makes me believe we are in for a real treat of a thread - not that previous years haven't been.
Welcome back Mr Peanuts - the return of the Aintree King 4 -
On Abolishonist we are! Look forward to this thread every year. You are a genius1
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Also the Power of Peanuts has takenbit in to 33s-40s already!1
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£10 to win outright straight away
Welcome back peanuts1 -
Cabbles:cabbles said:£10 to win outright straight away
Welcome back peanuts
I put it all on Abolitionist - £10 to win.
Peanuts:
To win? I said place! "Place it on Abolitionist-" That horse is gonna run second!
Cabbles:
[runs horrified to the betting booth] There's been a mistake! I want my money back!
(for lovers of The Sting!)
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Haha - I think I was a bit too overexcited the man is back. Got a bit carried away0
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Peanuts - will this thread also cover this week’s Becher Chase ?0
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Sounds like a good idea alan. Got any tips?alan dugdale said:Peanuts - will this thread also cover this week’s Becher Chase ?
Have to caution all who very kindly place so much faith in my Aintree musings that I don't have a model for the Becher but I'll certainly have a nibble as usual. Some very interesting possible debutants over the fences going against some Becher stalwarts.
Can't see it live - at the panto, believe it or not................... she who must be obeyed!1 -
I always find this interesting. @bobmunro how many AP bets this far in advance would it take for a change in the market? I'd say probably 5-10 of us would have all had a small tickle on Abolitionist in a window of a few hours - surely this wouldn't be enough?CAFCsayer said:Also the Power of Peanuts has takenbit in to 33s-40s already!
Or, more conspiratorially*, are there "marked" accounts deemed reliable/in the know that when a bet is put on, flags are raised? (Sort of similar to how Hugh Taylor's prices evaporate immediately)0 -
Conversely, is this why when I have a punt the horse seems to drift... :-)PaddyP17 said:
I always find this interesting. @bobmunro how many AP bets this far in advance would it take for a change in the market? I'd say probably 5-10 of us would have all had a small tickle on Abolitionist in a window of a few hours - surely this wouldn't be enough?CAFCsayer said:Also the Power of Peanuts has takenbit in to 33s-40s already!
Or, more conspiratorially*, are there "marked" accounts deemed reliable/in the know that when a bet is put on, flags are raised? (Sort of similar to how Hugh Taylor's prices evaporate immediately)5 -
The AP market this far out is pretty weak so any 'significant cluster of bets might bring about a drop in price - but it's really not that sensitive. If a known marker wants something that might be different - but again there will be very few markers playing this far out. That said, if Peanuts has a bet we slash the price immediately.PaddyP17 said:
I always find this interesting. @bobmunro how many AP bets this far in advance would it take for a change in the market? I'd say probably 5-10 of us would have all had a small tickle on Abolitionist in a window of a few hours - surely this wouldn't be enough?CAFCsayer said:Also the Power of Peanuts has takenbit in to 33s-40s already!
Or, more conspiratorially*, are there "marked" accounts deemed reliable/in the know that when a bet is put on, flags are raised? (Sort of similar to how Hugh Taylor's prices evaporate immediately)
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That's the only sure fire way of moving prices. When you bet we slash everything else ;-)Addickted2TheReds said:
Conversely, is this why when I have a punt the horse seems to drift... :-)PaddyP17 said:
I always find this interesting. @bobmunro how many AP bets this far in advance would it take for a change in the market? I'd say probably 5-10 of us would have all had a small tickle on Abolitionist in a window of a few hours - surely this wouldn't be enough?CAFCsayer said:Also the Power of Peanuts has takenbit in to 33s-40s already!
Or, more conspiratorially*, are there "marked" accounts deemed reliable/in the know that when a bet is put on, flags are raised? (Sort of similar to how Hugh Taylor's prices evaporate immediately)1 -
Welcome back @PeanutsMolloy
I've taken 40-1 (5 places E/W 1/4) with @bobmunro 's lot on Abolitionist.1 -
18 decs for the Becher and a highly competitive race in prospect.
The 2 Twiston-Davies runners certainly merit being at the head of the market but there's some serious opposition from some who outperform over these fences and other quality staying chasers making their Aintree debut. 9 of the 18-runners declared at 12/1 or shorter reflects the competitiveness of the race.
As ever, it's a search for e/w value for me and, given the likely Soft ground, 33/1 for REGAL FLOW (Bet365 4 places 1/4 NRNB) ticks my box.
3m+ on Soft or softer are his conditions (4 wins, 2 close-2nds and a UR when about to win from 8 such chases since 2016) and it will be the first time he's had them since his very impressive Midlands National win last March (if memory serves, I think you had him that day @PaddyP17). He has a 5lb higher mark on Saturday (OR 140) but he ran respectably off 143 on GS last time out and he wasn't stopping after 4 miles at Uttoxeter.
Weight isn't a stopper in this but the balance of winners' stats since 2010 tends to favour runners with <11.00 and he'll carry just 10.06.
Will he handle the fences? We'll find out of course but in 22 chases he's failed to complete only twice (a soft F early in his chasing career and a UR from a stumble, leading and going well late on).
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Regal flow also 33/1 with bet victor paying 5 places @1/5 odds but don’t think NRNB.1
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Cheers PBS. If I'm gonna lose I'd rather it were Bob's pocket.paulbaconsarnie said:Regal flow also 33/1 with bet victor paying 5 places @1/5 odds but don’t think NRNB.
Same in reverse of course
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You would be correct. A heavy night ensued.PeanutsMolloy said:18 decs for the Becher and a highly competitive race in prospect.
The 2 Twiston-Davies runners certainly merit being at the head of the market but there's some serious opposition from some who outperform over these fences and other quality staying chasers making their Aintree debut. 9 of the 18-runners declared at 12/1 or shorter reflects the competitiveness of the race.
As ever, it's a search for e/w value for me and, given the likely Soft ground, 33/1 for REGAL FLOW (Bet365 4 places 1/4 NRNB) ticks my box.
3m+ on Soft or softer are his conditions (4 wins, 2 close-2nds and a UR when about to win from 8 such chases since 2016) and it will be the first time he's had them since his very impressive Midlands National win last March (if memory serves, I think you had him that day @PaddyP17). He has a 5lb higher mark on Saturday (OR 140) but he ran respectably off 143 on GS last time out and he wasn't stopping after 4 miles at Uttoxeter.
Weight isn't a stopper in this but the balance of winners' stats since 2010 tends to favour runners with
Lumping on now, having just had a four-timer on the first four races today, including Adjali. He's now 8/1 for the Triumph at Cheltenham, and I'm sitting very prettily on 20s!
I've had an unbelievably hot streak lately and will give a few thoughts on the Becher on race day.2
