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Sport of Kings discussion thread
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As you were.
A shed load of defections at confirmation stage today sees the original 20 (including Vicente, once again top-weight, Raz de Maree and Milansbar) less Splash Of Ginge and Sir Mangan, looking like lining up.
So, prior to final decs, the bottom two are Rathlin Rose and Alfie Spinner (interesting e/w at 33/1), both set to carry 10-07.
Going's currently heavy, of course. Not too much rain in the forecast so fingers crossed this time.
More anon.2 -
Even if there are more defections at decs, none of the 5 that could come in, albeit at <10-07, appeal or would materially impact the overall complexion of Saturday's Welsh GN from a weights-perspective.
Rathlin Rose doesn't tick the boxes either but ALFIE SPINNER (13-10-07) at the price most certainly does, at least as place potential, and I've had a nibble each-way at 33/1. Reasons:
Trip - Placed in 2 minor Nationals over 28f+ (one on heavy) as an 8 y-o. Failed to fulfil potential with Nick Williams but since move to Kerry Lee in 2016, despite advancing years, he's showing best and most consistent form since placing in both Badger Ales and Becher Chases 3 years ago. Cut out the running for a long way in the 33f Midlands National last March, eventually 23L 9th. 3 of Saturday's rivals (Chase The Spud, Mysteree and Houblon Des Obeaux) finished ahead that day but, to differing degrees, he's better off against each (and Final Nudge) at the weights and there are more chinks in their armour (IMHO) in the Chepstow marathon.
Form - dropped 3lbs since Uttoxeter and last run a strong-finishing 2nd (2L) to Wild West Wind in 3m Welsh GN Trial over the course in November on heavy (same OR132 on Saturday and so neck and neck at the weights with 3rd Milansbar, 7lbs better off vs WWW).
Course - goes well at Chepstow (a win and two near-misses from 5 chases) despite a tendency to shape a little right at obstacles (Chepstow's long straights more forgiving of that than twisty Uttoxeter). Will love the ground.
So my final team for Saturday (all each way):
VICENTE 16/1
RAZ DE MAREE 25/1
MILANSBSAR - original bet at 20s voided, reloaded at 25/1
ALFIE SPINNER 33/1
All the best everyone.5 -
on chase the spud for the welsh gn.
had a good double of yanworth and wholestone yesterday1 -
Rock The Kasbah, Houblon Des Obeaux and Folsom Blue all scratched this morning at decs.
On The Road, former runner-up Firebird Flyer and former winner Emperors Choice all run.
The last ran only 7 days ago (winning in the mud at Haydock after a handicap de-rating 2-year barren spell) but in conditions tomorrow is a real threat (carries only 10 stone after the jockey's 3lb claim).
Still happy with my 4. Alfie Spinner will have 5lbs taken off and carry 10-02 with a decent conditional jock on board.
Complexion of the race not materially changed weights-wise. Only 5 of the 20 will carry <10-09 and, while a young 'un can certainly win, as 4 of the 6 at the bottom of the weights were 10y-o+ at original race-date, the Age stat favouring 6~8y-o can be set-aside for this one.0 -
Seems to be a rumour that, with the Rock withdrawn, Dickie Johnson's going to ride Alfie Spinner. Gave him a peach of a ride last time out in the Welsh GN Trial.
Worth the extra 5lbs if so methinks.0 -
Dickie is going to Sandown peanuts
I've changed my two for the national: gone for MYSTEREE & BUCKHORN TIMOTHY.1 -
No sweat, I'll take the 5lbsBig_Bob said:Dickie is going to Sandown peanuts
I've changed my two for the national: gone for MYSTEREE & BUCKHORN TIMOTHY.
Best of luck Bob.0 -
Chase The Spud for me0
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I’m here at Chepstow. It’s bloody freezing.0
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Best of luck to you too peanuts. The only one I can't have is yours is Vicente- lugging top weight around Chepstow on bottomless ground. Ps I know native river did it last year but not in the same class imo!
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Enjoy your day mate.WelshAddick said:I’m here at Chepstow. It’s bloody freezing.
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You may well be proved right Bob though, if you include near-misses, the record of top-weights in the Welsh GN over the years isn't as shabby as one might think.Big_Bob said:Best of luck to you too peanuts. The only one I can't have is yours is Vicente- lugging top weight around Chepstow on bottomless ground. Ps I know native river did it last year but not in the same class imo!
3/4 of the field today, incl most of the fancies are carrying weights that look a lot by historic standards for the race.
We'll see.
Biggest threats for me are Emperors Choice (might have a win saver) and Mysteree.
All the best.
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So many of the horses look like they've been laid out for the race, which is making it extremely difficult to call.
MYSTEREE's record first time out in NY is amazing, coupled with enjoying the ground.1 -
Can't see the race as out - mrs Molloy's birthday - so radio silence from me till I get to see it recorded later.
TTFN2 -
Peanuts you’re ridiculous lol4
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Genius.4
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Peanuts is our hero.4
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@PeanutsMolloy you beauty.2
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Absolutely outrageous...3
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Cheers Peanuts you beauty!!!!3
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Brilliant @PeanutsMolloy3
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Well done Peanuts3
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Peanuts!!!!!! Well done, utter ledge1
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Winner, second and the forecast.
I know you’re off air till later, Peanuts - but where was the tricast ?!
Legend.2 -
Top man Peanuts.1
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If only old Buywise had a different jockey throughout his career, he’d have won a couple more.1
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Holy s&&t. You're too kind chaps (and ladies - sincere apologies Len\'s_little_girl)
It's so nice when the old fellas have their day......my horses done OK aswell 6 -
Following Peanuts tips is like buying bitcoin... you know you should've done it.4
