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League One xG table
Comments
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Using data effectively is one of many things clubs need to get right. Brighton and Brentford also made the right appointments and invested well in other areas of their clubs.ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?2 -
I remember after we had just beat Brentford in our championship season and they had made an awful start, the only reason they didn’t sack Thomas Franck (fans clamouring for) was because Brentford’s Xg was so much better than all their opponents and should have, in theory, led to much better results- so they stuck with him on that basis and over the long term, he’s been an incredible manager for them as they sit happily in the prem- so the stats do help aye?Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.I was at that Brentford game and we scored and then camped in our box and on another day could have been thrashed by a very good Brentford side - I imagine the other games were similar and they were just hugely unfortunate and the stats proved this - they knew that over the long term that the results would come and they did!2 -
Scoham said:
Using data effectively is one of many things clubs need to get right. Brighton and Brentford also made the right appointments and invested well in other areas of their clubs.ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?
Which is where the latter part of your post is nail on head.
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Using data well could be the difference between success and failure though. Same with managerial appointments, coaching staff, recruitment, budgets, training facilities, quality of your pitch, physiotherapy/medical/sports science etc.ElfsborgAddick said:Scoham said:
Using data effectively is one of many things clubs need to get right. Brighton and Brentford also made the right appointments and invested well in other areas of their clubs.ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?
Which is where the latter part of your post is nail on head.
It would be mad to ignore data or put too much trust in it.6 -
Think Liverpool hiring Arne Slot is a really good example of this. Well publicised that they used data to figure out which managers played a style similar to Klopp that would be easy for the squad to adapt to. There were bigger names available but he seems to have done a good job. The data was the jumping off point before character references, interviews etc.Scoham said:
Using data well could be the difference between success and failure though. Same with managerial appointments, coaching staff, recruitment, budgets, training facilities, quality of your pitch, physiotherapy/medical/sports science etc.ElfsborgAddick said:Scoham said:
Using data effectively is one of many things clubs need to get right. Brighton and Brentford also made the right appointments and invested well in other areas of their clubs.ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?
Which is where the latter part of your post is nail on head.
It would be mad to ignore data or put too much trust in it.4 -
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?1 -
The debate doesn’t need to be complicated, it’s a straight choice between:
a) having lots of information.
b) not having lots of information.And before anyone says “too much information is bad!” That’s what analysts are for.
If you’re somehow yelling for option b) in 2024 you need to adjust your watch.5 -
Maybe XG will save me
And after all it's my wonderwall.0 -
BR7_addick said:
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?Maybe that football is a simple game and that you pass the ball to a team mate, and move towards the opponents goal.That is my humble opinion rather than being difficult and argumentative.0 -
Cor never thought of that! Maybe you should email it over NJ, might find it helpfulElfsborgAddick said:BR7_addick said:
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?Maybe that football is a simple game and that you pass the ball to a team mate, and move towards the opponents goal.That is my humble opinion rather than being difficult and argumentative.4 -
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fenaddick said:
Cor never thought of that! Maybe you should email it over NJ, might find it helpfulElfsborgAddick said:BR7_addick said:
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?Maybe that football is a simple game and that you pass the ball to a team mate, and move towards the opponents goal.That is my humble opinion rather than being difficult and argumentative.
Yes daddy.
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Karel Fraeye levels of analysis!3
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Yeah I’m sure that’s how Pep’s team talk each game usually goes.ElfsborgAddick said:BR7_addick said:
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?Maybe that football is a simple game and that you pass the ball to a team mate, and move towards the opponents goal.That is my humble opinion rather than being difficult and argumentative.0 -
BR7_addick said:
Yeah I’m sure that’s how Pep’s team talk each game usually goes.ElfsborgAddick said:BR7_addick said:
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?Maybe that football is a simple game and that you pass the ball to a team mate, and move towards the opponents goal.That is my humble opinion rather than being difficult and argumentative.
Well I'm glad that you now agree with me.
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Liverpool are very smartly run, using data very well. There’s a reason their recruitment has such a high success rate compared to clubs like Man Utd and Chelsea that spend way more moneyfenaddick said:
Think Liverpool hiring Arne Slot is a really good example of this. Well publicised that they used data to figure out which managers played a style similar to Klopp that would be easy for the squad to adapt to. There were bigger names available but he seems to have done a good job. The data was the jumping off point before character references, interviews etc.Scoham said:
Using data well could be the difference between success and failure though. Same with managerial appointments, coaching staff, recruitment, budgets, training facilities, quality of your pitch, physiotherapy/medical/sports science etc.ElfsborgAddick said:Scoham said:
Using data effectively is one of many things clubs need to get right. Brighton and Brentford also made the right appointments and invested well in other areas of their clubs.ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?
Which is where the latter part of your post is nail on head.
It would be mad to ignore data or put too much trust in it.1 -
?????BR7_addick said:
The stats are to help with what might happen, not what has just happened.golfaddick said:Still a load of bollox.
We've let 2 goals in this season (league games) from shots outside the box. I bet the XG on those were pretty low. But they went in. So the stats are meaningless. Only thing that matters is goals scored & goals conceded.1 -
Thing is just looking at those stats you would say that the second team obviously has better attacking intent & over a season will do much better than team 1. Again, 1 particular match tells you nothing but certainly better than XG.killerandflash said:Stats don't replace the scoreline, but they do give an indication of how a team is playing.
Two 1-0 wins. One in which the winning team has 2 shots, 1 on target. The second in which the winning team has 25 shots, 11 on target.
The same scoreline but very different performances.0 -
golfaddick said:
Thing is just looking at those stats you would say that the second team obviously has better attacking intent & over a season will do much better than team 1. Again, 1 particular match tells you nothing but certainly better than XG.killerandflash said:Stats don't replace the scoreline, but they do give an indication of how a team is playing.
Two 1-0 wins. One in which the winning team has 2 shots, 1 on target. The second in which the winning team has 25 shots, 11 on target.
The same scoreline but very different performances.
When we lost 5-0 to Watford in the Luzon days I looked at the XG stats and thought we were unlucky.
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You’ve just described xG…golfaddick said:
Thing is just looking at those stats you would say that the second team obviously has better attacking intent & over a season will do much better than team 1. Again, 1 particular match tells you nothing but certainly better than XG.killerandflash said:Stats don't replace the scoreline, but they do give an indication of how a team is playing.
Two 1-0 wins. One in which the winning team has 2 shots, 1 on target. The second in which the winning team has 25 shots, 11 on target.
The same scoreline but very different performances.2 -
can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread0 -
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This is the Opta table ranked by XGD. Numbers down the left are actual league position0 -
Both opta analyst and footballxg.com calculate a table based upon expected points. They also offer a prediction for 46 games. However, we haven't played nearly enough games for that prediction to stand up to scrutiny.MrOneLung said:can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread
The point about xG is that it takes 25-30 data points per game, and not just the goals. It can therefore be useful to judge over ten games and compare vs:
- the competition
- previous seasons
- changes when there's a change in management, or players in/out due to transfers or injury
There will always be outliers, but most clubs will revert to their mean. If a club is outperforming xG then the choice is to ride out their luck, change approach, accept a downturn, or acquire / rehabilitate players.
In our case, Leaburn and Edwards are now available, and we require a win away to Stevenage or Bristol Rovers so as to stay in the frame. Should we win one plus our performances and xG improve then the bookies will perhaps place us back as one of the six favourites for a top six finish?
The point being that the bookies and xG are both independent of any Charlton bias, thus giving us a view which isn't distorted by our own views and emotions when watching the games.
What matters is that Nathan Jones needs to find away to create more, decent chances without compromising the serious progress made in defence. We've made some inroads with set pieces - whether one uses anecdotes or xG our attacking threat is roughly half our competition!5 -
Here's the link if you want to sort by any different metric: https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-one/table0
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It's really useful that xG has identified this.seriously_red said:
Both opta analyst and footballxg.com calculate a table based upon expected points. They also offer a prediction for 46 games. However, we haven't played nearly enough games for that prediction to stand up to scrutiny.MrOneLung said:can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread
The point about xG is that it takes 25-30 data points per game, and not just the goals. It can therefore be useful to judge over ten games and compare vs:
- the competition
- previous seasons
- changes when there's a change in management, or players in/out due to transfers or injury
There will always be outliers, but most clubs will revert to their mean. If a club is outperforming xG then the choice is to ride out their luck, change approach, accept a downturn, or acquire / rehabilitate players.
In our case, Leaburn and Edwards are now available, and we require a win away to Stevenage or Bristol Rovers so as to stay in the frame. Should we win one plus our performances and xG improve then the bookies will perhaps place us back as one of the six favourites for a top six finish?
The point being that the bookies and xG are both independent of any Charlton bias, thus giving us a view which isn't distorted by our own views and emotions when watching the games.
What matters is that Nathan Jones needs to find away to create more, decent chances without compromising the serious progress made in defence. We've made some inroads with set pieces - whether one uses anecdotes or xG our attacking threat is roughly half our competition!
No one else had noticed.3 -
I imagine it’s more useful for identifying and prioritising players and teams we might want to scout.Covered End said:
It's really useful that xG has identified this.seriously_red said:
Both opta analyst and footballxg.com calculate a table based upon expected points. They also offer a prediction for 46 games. However, we haven't played nearly enough games for that prediction to stand up to scrutiny.MrOneLung said:can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread
The point about xG is that it takes 25-30 data points per game, and not just the goals. It can therefore be useful to judge over ten games and compare vs:
- the competition
- previous seasons
- changes when there's a change in management, or players in/out due to transfers or injury
There will always be outliers, but most clubs will revert to their mean. If a club is outperforming xG then the choice is to ride out their luck, change approach, accept a downturn, or acquire / rehabilitate players.
In our case, Leaburn and Edwards are now available, and we require a win away to Stevenage or Bristol Rovers so as to stay in the frame. Should we win one plus our performances and xG improve then the bookies will perhaps place us back as one of the six favourites for a top six finish?
The point being that the bookies and xG are both independent of any Charlton bias, thus giving us a view which isn't distorted by our own views and emotions when watching the games.
What matters is that Nathan Jones needs to find away to create more, decent chances without compromising the serious progress made in defence. We've made some inroads with set pieces - whether one uses anecdotes or xG our attacking threat is roughly half our competition!
No one else had noticed.
For your own team it adds evidence or challenges your own views, just as any stats do.1 -
I think we should go one further and do away with all stats including possession, shots and corners.Covered End said:
It's really useful that xG has identified this.seriously_red said:
Both opta analyst and footballxg.com calculate a table based upon expected points. They also offer a prediction for 46 games. However, we haven't played nearly enough games for that prediction to stand up to scrutiny.MrOneLung said:can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread
The point about xG is that it takes 25-30 data points per game, and not just the goals. It can therefore be useful to judge over ten games and compare vs:
- the competition
- previous seasons
- changes when there's a change in management, or players in/out due to transfers or injury
There will always be outliers, but most clubs will revert to their mean. If a club is outperforming xG then the choice is to ride out their luck, change approach, accept a downturn, or acquire / rehabilitate players.
In our case, Leaburn and Edwards are now available, and we require a win away to Stevenage or Bristol Rovers so as to stay in the frame. Should we win one plus our performances and xG improve then the bookies will perhaps place us back as one of the six favourites for a top six finish?
The point being that the bookies and xG are both independent of any Charlton bias, thus giving us a view which isn't distorted by our own views and emotions when watching the games.
What matters is that Nathan Jones needs to find away to create more, decent chances without compromising the serious progress made in defence. We've made some inroads with set pieces - whether one uses anecdotes or xG our attacking threat is roughly half our competition!
No one else had noticed.
Let's just go back to the early 1900s and focus on the final score and vibes only.3 -
I often bring up XG at half-time when debating things.Covered End said:
It's really useful that xG has identified this.seriously_red said:
Both opta analyst and footballxg.com calculate a table based upon expected points. They also offer a prediction for 46 games. However, we haven't played nearly enough games for that prediction to stand up to scrutiny.MrOneLung said:can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread
The point about xG is that it takes 25-30 data points per game, and not just the goals. It can therefore be useful to judge over ten games and compare vs:
- the competition
- previous seasons
- changes when there's a change in management, or players in/out due to transfers or injury
There will always be outliers, but most clubs will revert to their mean. If a club is outperforming xG then the choice is to ride out their luck, change approach, accept a downturn, or acquire / rehabilitate players.
In our case, Leaburn and Edwards are now available, and we require a win away to Stevenage or Bristol Rovers so as to stay in the frame. Should we win one plus our performances and xG improve then the bookies will perhaps place us back as one of the six favourites for a top six finish?
The point being that the bookies and xG are both independent of any Charlton bias, thus giving us a view which isn't distorted by our own views and emotions when watching the games.
What matters is that Nathan Jones needs to find away to create more, decent chances without compromising the serious progress made in defence. We've made some inroads with set pieces - whether one uses anecdotes or xG our attacking threat is roughly half our competition!
No one else had noticed.4 -
Early 2000s perhaps.Callumcafc said:
I think we should go one further and do away with all stats including possession, shots and corners.Covered End said:
It's really useful that xG has identified this.seriously_red said:
Both opta analyst and footballxg.com calculate a table based upon expected points. They also offer a prediction for 46 games. However, we haven't played nearly enough games for that prediction to stand up to scrutiny.MrOneLung said:can someone actually post the league table based on xG ?
That is, after all the point of the thread
The point about xG is that it takes 25-30 data points per game, and not just the goals. It can therefore be useful to judge over ten games and compare vs:
- the competition
- previous seasons
- changes when there's a change in management, or players in/out due to transfers or injury
There will always be outliers, but most clubs will revert to their mean. If a club is outperforming xG then the choice is to ride out their luck, change approach, accept a downturn, or acquire / rehabilitate players.
In our case, Leaburn and Edwards are now available, and we require a win away to Stevenage or Bristol Rovers so as to stay in the frame. Should we win one plus our performances and xG improve then the bookies will perhaps place us back as one of the six favourites for a top six finish?
The point being that the bookies and xG are both independent of any Charlton bias, thus giving us a view which isn't distorted by our own views and emotions when watching the games.
What matters is that Nathan Jones needs to find away to create more, decent chances without compromising the serious progress made in defence. We've made some inroads with set pieces - whether one uses anecdotes or xG our attacking threat is roughly half our competition!
No one else had noticed.
Let's just go back to the early 1900s and focus on the final score and vibes only.2 -
This explains your long and successful career as a football manager. Certainly a step ahead of Appleton.ElfsborgAddick said:BR7_addick said:
Maybe they didn’t use the data, or maybe they did but didn’t make appropriate changes, maybe they spent less on analytics than the rest, or maybe they didn’t but went down anyway. What’s the point you’re making here, that if someone gets relegated despite using statistical information that all other clubs should stop using it?ElfsborgAddick said:Callumcafc said:
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.ElfsborgAddick said:ValleyGary said:I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?Maybe that football is a simple game and that you pass the ball to a team mate, and move towards the opponents goal.That is my humble opinion rather than being difficult and argumentative.2
