I’ve come to realise that I’m out of touch. So on Saturday I’m no longer too bothered about winning the game, as long as we can improve our xg ratings.
We are very unlikely to stay near the top end of the league unless we start creating more chances (more xG). You don’t need xG to realise that, just watching the games would tell you it. But xG is a way of quantifying that into a number
Agreed. Just watching the games tells you all you need to know.
What if you can’t remember how many corners, goal kicks, shots on target, shots off target, forward passes, short passes, long passes, interceptions, tackles off the top of your head, do you think it might be useful for someone to write it all down?
When Godden scored at Cambridge when given the ball on a plate by Kanu my expected goal thinking at that moment was 100% he should score, but if he missed it would be bad. When Savage had the ball way away from our area at Reading my expected goal thinking at that moment was 95% he shouldn't score, if he scored a goal then, it would be good. However if Mannion had turned his back on play to get a drink, and Savage had tried a speculative lob from that distance, my expected goal thinking at that moment would be 100% he should score. But he didn't! I think I might be getting the hang of this expecting goals thing.
I’ve come to realise that I’m out of touch. So on Saturday I’m no longer too bothered about winning the game, as long as we can improve our xg ratings.
We are very unlikely to stay near the top end of the league unless we start creating more chances (more xG). You don’t need xG to realise that, just watching the games would tell you it. But xG is a way of quantifying that into a number
Agreed. Just watching the games tells you all you need to know.
It does to be honest, what we can see is backed up by the xG stats. We'd be lucky to remain in the top 6 all season unless we start creating more chances.
I have no idea why the dinosaurs are in denial about all this and just keep saying "I only care about the league table". We all do, and we'd like to be playing in a way that's likely more sustainable to staying near the top.
I’ve come to realise that I’m out of touch. So on Saturday I’m no longer too bothered about winning the game, as long as we can improve our xg ratings.
We are very unlikely to stay near the top end of the league unless we start creating more chances (more xG). You don’t need xG to realise that, just watching the games would tell you it. But xG is a way of quantifying that into a number
Agreed. Just watching the games tells you all you need to know.
What if you can’t remember how many corners, goal kicks, shots on target, shots off target, forward passes, short passes, long passes, interceptions, tackles off the top of your head, do you think it might be useful for someone to write it all down?
No. Just enjoy a game of football. It's about where you come from, entertainment, passion, tribal, it's not about statistics or it shouldn't be. Well for me anyway, I like getting carried away, getting excited, getting passionate. Christ do some people sit down at half time talking to their mates that we're currently on 1.2 xg and Blackpool are only on 1.0 xg. Christ alive how £$%£$%£ boring.
I think Stig is onto something here. Instead of calling it xg let's call it my nan could have scored that etc. This would definitely make it more interesting.
So, for Smalls shot the other week, it would be - My springer would've done better and he went over rainbow bridge 2 years ago, bless him
I’ve come to realise that I’m out of touch. So on Saturday I’m no longer too bothered about winning the game, as long as we can improve our xg ratings.
We are very unlikely to stay near the top end of the league unless we start creating more chances (more xG). You don’t need xG to realise that, just watching the games would tell you it. But xG is a way of quantifying that into a number
Agreed. Just watching the games tells you all you need to know.
What if you can’t remember how many corners, goal kicks, shots on target, shots off target, forward passes, short passes, long passes, interceptions, tackles off the top of your head, do you think it might be useful for someone to write it all down?
No. Just enjoy a game of football. It's about where you come from, entertainment, passion, tribal, it's not about statistics or it shouldn't be. Well for me anyway, I like getting carried away, getting excited, getting passionate. Christ do some people sit down at half time talking to their mates that we're currently on 1.2 xg and Blackpool are only on 1.0 xg. Christ alive how £$%£$%£ boring.
For me, it doesn’t detract, it adds.
I still experience the passionate, the excitement and the high and lows. Then the next day I can have a look at the stats and find enjoyment out of the game in another way.
It’s not an either or situation in my experience but if it’s not for you that’s obviously not a problem.
Quite funny really because our xG was much better than Blackpool’s on Saturday.
Game state will play a part in that of course but it’s somewhat typical that we’ve won games that maybe we shouldn’t early and then lost a game that we created the better chances in.
The fact we are fourth in the real table and sixth in overall xG difference suggests we are right about where we should be after seven games played.
I’ve come to realise that I’m out of touch. So on Saturday I’m no longer too bothered about winning the game, as long as we can improve our xg ratings.
We are very unlikely to stay near the top end of the league unless we start creating more chances (more xG). You don’t need xG to realise that, just watching the games would tell you it. But xG is a way of quantifying that into a number
Agreed. Just watching the games tells you all you need to know.
What if you can’t remember how many corners, goal kicks, shots on target, shots off target, forward passes, short passes, long passes, interceptions, tackles off the top of your head, do you think it might be useful for someone to write it all down?
No. Just enjoy a game of football. It's about where you come from, entertainment, passion, tribal, it's not about statistics or it shouldn't be. Well for me anyway, I like getting carried away, getting excited, getting passionate. Christ do some people sit down at half time talking to their mates that we're currently on 1.2 xg and Blackpool are only on 1.0 xg. Christ alive how £$%£$%£ boring.
I’ve come to realise that I’m out of touch. So on Saturday I’m no longer too bothered about winning the game, as long as we can improve our xg ratings.
We are very unlikely to stay near the top end of the league unless we start creating more chances (more xG). You don’t need xG to realise that, just watching the games would tell you it. But xG is a way of quantifying that into a number
Agreed. Just watching the games tells you all you need to know.
What if you can’t remember how many corners, goal kicks, shots on target, shots off target, forward passes, short passes, long passes, interceptions, tackles off the top of your head, do you think it might be useful for someone to write it all down?
No. Just enjoy a game of football. It's about where you come from, entertainment, passion, tribal, it's not about statistics or it shouldn't be. Well for me anyway, I like getting carried away, getting excited, getting passionate. Christ do some people sit down at half time talking to their mates that we're currently on 1.2 xg and Blackpool are only on 1.0 xg. Christ alive how £$%£$%£ boring.
I do want to just enjoy the game.
That’s why I think it’s a good idea if we have a few stattos on the books trying to analyse the data so we can win more games.
You’ve gone from “we don’t need it” to “it’s boring”. Two different arguments, the topic shouldn’t bother you this much mate, relax.
As if. Not sure what model that is as I believe there are different ones, but no way we can be 6th IMO. Also how have we gone from 21st 2 weeks ago(as per Cawleys data) to 6th now after a game at Shrewsbury where we created sweet FA and Saturday where we also created absolutely zero for the first 50 minutes of the match.
As if. Not sure what model that is as I believe there are different ones, but no way we can be 6th IMO. Also how have we gone from 21st 2 weeks ago(as per Cawleys data) to 6th now after a game at Shrewsbury where we created sweet FA and Saturday where we also created absolutely zero for the first 50 minutes of the match.
Totally different stats, Cawley's was straight xG and this compares your xG for and xG against to create an aggregate totally, this also discounts penalties. I can't find our xG against after a quick search but we're 14th for xG for
As if. Not sure what model that is as I believe there are different ones, but no way we can be 6th IMO. Also how have we gone from 21st 2 weeks ago(as per Cawleys data) to 6th now after a game at Shrewsbury where we created sweet FA and Saturday where we also created absolutely zero for the first 50 minutes of the match.
Totally different stats, Cawley's was straight xG and this compares your xG for and xG against to create an aggregate totally, this also discounts penalties. I can't find our xG against after a quick search but we're 14th for xG for
We are 5th for total xG conceded. When you equate that to xG conceded per 90 minutes, we are 2nd only to Birmingham.
So it’s hardly surprising with the 2nd best defence by chances conceded and 14th best attack by chances created that it would average out somewhere around 6th.
We've let 2 goals in this season (league games) from shots outside the box. I bet the XG on those were pretty low. But they went in. So the stats are meaningless. Only thing that matters is goals scored & goals conceded.
We've let 2 goals in this season (league games) from shots outside the box. I bet the XG on those were pretty low. But they went in. So the stats are meaningless. Only thing that matters is goals scored & goals conceded.
That just demonstrably isn’t true, if anything it shows there’s a weakness somewhere in our defence making it easier for those goals to go in. Sure you can see that by eye too but the stats help
We've let 2 goals in this season (league games) from shots outside the box. I bet the XG on those were pretty low. But they went in. So the stats are meaningless. Only thing that matters is goals scored & goals conceded.
The stats are to help with what might happen, not what has just happened.
I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
I don’t take too much notice of it, but the fact that clubs analytics departments use it keenly, shows it means something.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
Ask Brentford and Brighton who were ahead of the curve and using this stuff 10-15 years ago.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?
Comments
When Savage had the ball way away from our area at Reading my expected goal thinking at that moment was 95% he shouldn't score, if he scored a goal then, it would be good.
However if Mannion had turned his back on play to get a drink, and Savage had tried a speculative lob from that distance, my expected goal thinking at that moment would be 100% he should score.
But he didn't!
I think I might be getting the hang of this expecting goals thing.
I have no idea why the dinosaurs are in denial about all this and just keep saying "I only care about the league table". We all do, and we'd like to be playing in a way that's likely more sustainable to staying near the top.
Just enjoy a game of football.
It's about where you come from, entertainment, passion, tribal, it's not about statistics or it shouldn't be.
Well for me anyway, I like getting carried away, getting excited, getting passionate.
Christ do some people sit down at half time talking to their mates that we're currently on 1.2 xg and Blackpool are only on 1.0 xg. Christ alive how £$%£$%£ boring.
Nerds/Geeks = Those that love diving into the numbers/data after a 1-0 charlton win/loss even though we won/lost fair & square.
It’s just utterly utterly boring.
I still experience the passionate, the excitement and the high and lows. Then the next day I can have a look at the stats and find enjoyment out of the game in another way.
It’s not an either or situation in my experience but if it’s not for you that’s obviously not a problem.
Game state will play a part in that of course but it’s somewhat typical that we’ve won games that maybe we shouldn’t early and then lost a game that we created the better chances in.
The fact we are fourth in the real table and sixth in overall xG difference suggests we are right about where we should be after seven games played.
Rotherham on the other hand, are clearly much better than their current 21st place. Indeed I'd still expect them to finish above Wrexham.
Bad news for Salop fans, the graph confirms that they are terrible
That’s why I think it’s a good idea if we have a few stattos on the books trying to analyse the data so we can win more games.
So it’s hardly surprising with the 2nd best defence by chances conceded and 14th best attack by chances created that it would average out somewhere around 6th.
We've let 2 goals in this season (league games) from shots outside the box. I bet the XG on those were pretty low. But they went in. So the stats are meaningless. Only thing that matters is goals scored & goals conceded.
I agree with that, but how meaningful and successful it is would be an interesting question to coaches and managers.
They’ve both no doubt moved on to even more advanced metrics these days to stay ahead of the game - and the same discussions will be had in 2040 about whatever they’re using today.
Two 1-0 wins. One in which the winning team has 2 shots, 1 on target. The second in which the winning team has 25 shots, 11 on target.
The same scoreline but very different performances.
And there are clubs using this stuff that get relegated, so where does that leave XG?
Okay daddy.