We also need a run of good luck, both during matches and with injuries.
Are we a lucky club?
There’s no such thing as luck. It genuinely doesn’t exist.
Always surprises me how easily and unquestioningly people believe in some sort of unseen force determining the outcome of events even whilst religious belief is declining.
It really does I think. Anyone who likes a bet will tell you that. And football is one of the sports most affected by luck. Of course it evens out over the course of a season, but within the course of that season there will be matches where you dominate, but lose to a deflected goal after a rare attack by the opposition.
And games that you win because of something similar. Tennis, because of its scoring system, is less affected by luck, although luck affects individual points e.g. the total mishit that loops over the opponent’s head and lands on the line. With tennis, luck only plays a part very rarely, eg when a match is massively close and comes down to a tie breaker (non grand slam tournaments only), and there’s a lucky net cord at a decisive point, or something similar. But you won’t find a match where one player dominates, but the other player wins, as happens in football.
It’s not ‘an unseen force’ it’s just something that happens, as events have proven in football time and time again. You won’t win the league or get promoted by being lucky, but you might win the odd match.
None of the things you have described are “luck”. A deflected goal is simply the outcome of physics, not fortune or fate.
For the record I enjoy a bet, but even where the ball lands on the roulette wheel is down to the velocity the croupier spins the wheel at, the placement of the ball and myriad atmospheric conditions in the casino. None of this is really luck, it’s just science.
We’re conditioned to believe in luck against our better judgement, but it’s just superstitious nonsense.
I think we’re at cross purposes here, although it’s an interesting debate.
Of course a crazy deflection of a misfit shot obeys the laws of physics, and no one is claiming it doesn't, or that a weird force or supernatural power is involved. And I never even mentioned fate. You may be mixing up the belief in good luck charms etc, which of course is nonsense, with statistical outcomes & statistical anomalies, which are actual things
If a footballer kicks the ball in the wrong direction, and it ends up in the net, it’s of course because of physics, that goes without saying. But statistically it’s much more likely that a shot on target will result in a goal than an off target one. And if you rely on deflections rather than accuracy you won’t win many matches. Shooting on target increases the odds of both scoring and of winning matches, Being rubbish at shooting has the opposite effect, and you’ll need statistical anomalies to win matches, and some people call that relying on luck, as a shorthand.
In the casino, if a punter puts their only chip on 17, and the ball lends on 17, then a statistically unlikely outcome has occurred because of physics, and they get 35 chips back. People call that being “lucky”, because it’s simpler than saying the person “benefitted from the laws of physics, and a statistically unlikely outcome occurred”. If someone claims it’s “really spooky”, or that “fate intervened”, or that they won the chips because they were wearing their lucky socks, then that’s of course just “superstitious nonsense”, as you described. Although it’s perfectly harmless nonsense in that situation, and it gives some people pleasure. It’s not so harmless if they rely on the same method when choosing a surgeon to perform a heart operation on them.
So against Burton the laws of physics will definitely not be broken, but I hope we are not the victims of a statistical anomaly or two. And if a bird cr*ps on my head on the way to the match I’ll still be cursing my luck, even though I know it’s just physics and statistics combining.
Five years ago I placed one of my my last (£50) chips on 17 as that happens to be my wife's birthday.
It came up!
And so I returned to the house the following morning gifting members of the family £50 notes on Christmas Eve 😉
Wind forward and we're all at Wembley... we all see a takeover, then Covid etc. Etc.
Ultimately life, like football is a game of chance where the illusion of choice is incredibly nuanced - whether we win at the tables or not there's still the draw of something familiar!
One wonders if Juvenal foresaw that the plethora of circuses would sink to a level that victory vs Burton becomes such a triumph that we're happy... happy to abdicate our responsibility elsewhere?
Always find it baffling that Bolton aren’t top and running away with the league. Every time we play them they look amazing. Comfortably the best side I’ve seen at The Valley for the past 2 seasons
The league has well organised limited sides in it. The officiating allows a more robust approach which helps them. We are probably 10-15% overall off where we need to be. This could be met with one or two signings of the right pedigree. Of course for whatever reason, poor decisions certainly, we have not bridged that gap since 2019. We shouldn't believe it is impossible though. Indeed with the limitations within the squad, Appleton has only lost two league games since joining us. We have drawn too many, granted, but the leap required isn't over a giant chasm.
Of course what you hear and what you see is completely different and that is why for Appleton and indeed Scott and the owners, actions will speak louder than words.
Consistent style/method of play while retaining flexibility
Better balance in the squad
Cautious use of academy players
More experienced senior but not over the hill players
More leadership on the pitch
Improved management of fitness and injury
Long term realistic squad planning
Investment in players who can potentially play above league one
Better use of the incoming loan market
Better pitches and facilities at Sparrows Lane such as pitch drainage and indoor training facilities
Better, bigger and broader scouting of opponents and potential signings.
Better use of outgoing loans so young players go to higher level clubs where they can develop
I think it's more than just "sign better players". Those better players need to come into a functional, not the often in recent times dysfunctional, set up so they have the best chance to impact on performances.
It's a team game and we need to build a "team" not just a group of talented individuals.
I repeat.
We need a lot lot more than "just sign better players" because the "culture" those players will come into isn't right.
And despite contradicting my first point I'm thinking that we may need a change of coach too.
However, I can only see MA being sacked if the beneficial owners push for it because I can't see the management team saying that they made a second poor coaching selection in under a year; that would undermine their credibility with the money men.
Personally I think we get to judge the owners and Appleton in about eleven months from now. Both the money and the manager will have had two proper windows by then and we need to be top six in November. I’m not expecting anything. We just have to wait and see. If we haven’t significantly improved by that point I think we might see us just carry on drifting into third level mediocrity.
I've sent enough from Appleton to know he won't get us promoted, doesn't matter how much money you give him. The owners will be judged properly after January's window
The new ownership group claimed to be starting the hard work when they took over. Charlie said so. I'd suggest some of these should be held accountable over the coming weeks or months, or at least a discussion about whether this is the right structure and personnel:
" we.. want to place on record at this point that GFP’s ambition is to build a football club noted for its professionalism, integrity and intense focus on success. To that end, we are appointing and empowering a Senior Management Team (SMT) that we believe has the relevant experiences and energy to drive the club forward.”
Our two best signings of the summer happened before they took over officially, they cannot have credit for those but also use the excuse of not having had a full transfer window.
The new owners should only be judged on what happens between now and the end of next season. They inherited a mess and a club in rapid decline. I don’t think it’s possible to turn something like that around in only a few months. Personally I think it unreasonable to judge them on one season. January should give us an insight and I’d expect at least some improvement over the last two seasons of mid table stagnation. Top six is gone but I’m hopeful the January window gives us something to build on in the summer. If that assessment is wide of the mark then the future is looking as bleak as the last ten years.
Our two best signings of the summer happened before they took over officially, they cannot have credit for those but also use the excuse of not having had a full transfer window.
That’s a good point, imagine how bad we’d be if they did get the full window!
The only answer I can see now is by getting relegated to league 2. Then we’d probably get top 6
I remember that sort of thinking when we dropped out of the prem. "At least we'll win some games" some said. Wouldn't even be confident we'd make top 6 a league lower at the moment.
Just to be clear, I am not anti the new owners or writing them off, I just laugh at the often twisted logic defence by the rosier members of the fanbase.
If they had nothing to do with last January or the summer until they officially took over then fine but then praise for the signing Alfie May must go elsewhere, not to them.
Just to be clear, I am not anti the new owners or writing them off, I just laugh at the often twisted logic defence by the rosier members of the fanbase.
If they had nothing to do with last January or the summer until they officially took over then fine but then praise for the signing Alfie May must go elsewhere, not to them.
Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan
I think, not for the first time that Airman has the handle on this. The owners ( the money men ) will at some point realise that the vision sold to them isn’t materialising and will cost more than they were promised. What happens at that point is anyone’s guess. I think some of the smaller ones will want out and perhaps one of the bigger players will step forward and become the big cheese. How that will affect our current SMT is also anyone’s guess.
I feel as if we're stuck in this division for ever.... The moment when we got promoted to the Championship under Bowyer seems like ages ago..... It's so distant that my memories of it are even starting to get blurry.
Only way out for our club us to find an owner woman afford to spend tens of million pounds over next 2 or 3 years to get us into rge championship, and not miss it. For us a London based club, this is the only sure way.
Only way out for our club us to find an owner woman afford to spend tens of million pounds over next 2 or 3 years to get us into rge championship, and not miss it. For us a London based club, this is the only sure way.
Our two best signings of the summer happened before they took over officially, they cannot have credit for those but also use the excuse of not having had a full transfer window.
That’s a good point, imagine how bad we’d be if they did get the full window!
Unless things turnaround rapidly by tonight the only way this lot will break into the Top 6 is if one of them has some musical talent and the team gets a decent song
We also need a run of good luck, both during matches and with injuries.
Are we a lucky club?
There’s no such thing as luck. It genuinely doesn’t exist.
Always surprises me how easily and unquestioningly people believe in some sort of unseen force determining the outcome of events even whilst religious belief is declining.
It’s not that people believe in an unseen force. Luck is often in clear evidence. How else do you explain for example winning a holiday in a draw (happened to me) or someone who dies in the Lewisham train disaster having never previously taken that train (happened to my Dad’s friend). I think you’ve got this muddled up. Believing in luck is one thing that prevents me believing in religion. If I thought luck didn’t exist, how else but the existence of a god would explain random events?
if there is one trait I think we need to have in all the players we bring in - almost as important as a new physical striker or 2 - it’s bollox - hard men like when we added youds and mills in 98 - a minimum of one in each department through the spine of the team
And players that hate losing. Ratty bastards who pull shirts and kick at heels and moan at the ref when things aren't going our way. People who hate losing more than they enjoy winning. We haven't had anyone like that in ages.
The club generally recruits what the fans want.
Let's not forget the outcry on here because Bowyer allegedly shouted at Johnny Williams and upset him.
Generally speaking, more often than not, Millwall sign tough players and Charlton sign weak players.
I remember the outcry from some when we signed Ben Thatcher.
We reap what we sew.
Nail on head. Too nice, too soft, no winning mentality or a determination to get over the line at any cost. A culture that runs throughout the club and now much of the fan base it seems. Ryan Innis was never admired for his tough nasty streak on the pitch, he was instead admired for his "community work". That says it all about our club. Get shafted by other clubs who happily flog us their crocks. Get shafted by referees most weeks, get bullied by the opposition most weeks, yet we somehow still end up with all the bookings and rarely even complain anything.
We just bend over and take it, then say "thank you very much".
The new mob have come in and it's just more of the same, when a complete change of culture was required. We needed a hard nut disciplinarian manager and ended up with Popeye the Sailor Man.
The training ground appears to be more like a Butlins Holiday Camp than a serious place of work. Lovely Bacon & eggs though!
A sensible approach would be to come in, have a deep detailed looked at all the departments in their working guise and then, with tangible evidence put a plan together of what to change, how to change and in what order that will be required.
Unfortunately July - December isn’t enough time to do that as well as implement all that is required.
It is really poor on the pitch right now but look at it from a different perspective. Zoom out from watching us pass throw in returns off the pitch or watching defenders walk off with backs turned, while quick free kicks are taken in the 94th min. We’ve been in free fall since 2007, 16 years of decline with a couple of bright moments. All downward graphs have some upward activity.
I thought at the time and still consider Cheltenham at home, 30th Anniversary of Back to the Valley game as the day we hit the bottom. A celebration of an incredible moment in our history and legends from that time were paraded on the pitch in-front of maybe 5,500 fans. It was depressing.
From what I’ve heard (I’ll hold my hands up if the information is incorrect) but there is a hell of a lot that has already got its wheels in motion but it is going to take time. Unfortunately for our long suffering fans not all progress is instantly visible. What we need as supporters is on pitch evidence, which is very, very hard to find right now. If January goes as is planned, we should start to see those wheels in motion on the pitch too.
From that zoomed out perspective we may be moving upwards on the first few points already. Day to day reality is those first few points are still around the bottom of a 16 year slide! It was never going to be pretty.
Comments
It came up!
And so I returned to the house the following morning gifting members of the family £50 notes on Christmas Eve 😉
Wind forward and we're all at Wembley... we all see a takeover, then Covid etc. Etc.
Ultimately life, like football is a game of chance where the illusion of choice is incredibly nuanced - whether we win at the tables or not there's still the draw of something familiar!
One wonders if Juvenal foresaw that the plethora of circuses would sink to a level that victory vs Burton becomes such a triumph that we're happy... happy to abdicate our responsibility elsewhere?
Of course what you hear and what you see is completely different and that is why for Appleton and indeed Scott and the owners, actions will speak louder than words.
We need a lot lot more than "just sign better players" because the "culture" those players will come into isn't right.
And despite contradicting my first point I'm thinking that we may need a change of coach too.
However, I can only see MA being sacked if the beneficial owners push for it because I can't see the management team saying that they made a second poor coaching selection in under a year; that would undermine their credibility with the money men.
https://fcbusiness.co.uk/news/global-football-partners-completes-charlton-athletic-takeover/
" we.. want to place on record at this point that GFP’s ambition is to build a football club noted for its professionalism, integrity and intense focus on success. To that end, we are appointing and empowering a Senior Management Team (SMT) that we believe has the relevant experiences and energy to drive the club forward.”
If they had nothing to do with last January or the summer until they officially took over then fine but then praise for the signing Alfie May must go elsewhere, not to them.
For us a London based club, this is the only sure way.
I think you’ve got this muddled up. Believing in luck is one thing that prevents me believing in religion. If I thought luck didn’t exist, how else but the existence of a god would explain random events?
A culture that runs throughout the club and now much of the fan base it seems.
Ryan Innis was never admired for his tough nasty streak on the pitch, he was instead admired for his "community work". That says it all about our club.
Get shafted by other clubs who happily flog us their crocks. Get shafted by referees most weeks, get bullied by the opposition most weeks, yet we somehow still end up with all the bookings and rarely even complain anything.
We just bend over and take it, then say "thank you very much".
The new mob have come in and it's just more of the same, when a complete change of culture was required.
We needed a hard nut disciplinarian manager and ended up with Popeye the Sailor Man.
The training ground appears to be more like a Butlins Holiday Camp than a serious place of work. Lovely Bacon & eggs though!
I thought at the time and still consider Cheltenham at home, 30th Anniversary of Back to the Valley game as the day we hit the bottom. A celebration of an incredible moment in our history and legends from that time were paraded on the pitch in-front of maybe 5,500 fans. It was depressing.
From what I’ve heard (I’ll hold my hands up if the information is incorrect) but there is a hell of a lot that has already got its wheels in motion but it is going to take time. Unfortunately for our long suffering fans not all progress is instantly visible. What we need as supporters is on pitch evidence, which is very, very hard to find right now. If January goes as is planned, we should start to see those wheels in motion on the pitch too.