Looks extremely likely that it will be NZ v Costa Rica (if NZ as expected beat Solomon Islands).
Mexico will need to lose at home to El Salvador and at the same time, Costa Rica need to beat USA. A four goal difference as well between Mexico and Costa Rica.
Yes CONCACAF is effectively settled after this evening.
1 Canada 28pts (Q) 2 USA 25pts +13 3 Mexico 25pts +7 - 4 Costa Rica 22pts +3 - 5 Panama 18pts (E)
Costa Rica v USA Mexico v El Salvador
Costa Rica must beat the US by six goals for the US to not automatically qualify. Five goals would have them level on goal difference but US have more goals scored.
The only other way Costa Rica get in automatically is if Mexico lose at home to El Salvador (by a goal at best) while they beat the US by four.
They could do it with a win by three if Mexico lost 0-1 and they won 5-2 for example but 3-0 and 4-1 would not be enough.
One thing I didn’t realise is that the draw is only five days away.
We have 20 qualified teams: Qatar, Germany, Denmark, Brazil, France, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Argentina, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Uruguay & Canada.
You can add the USA and Mexico in a few days for twenty two. Portugal should make it 23 unless there is North Macedonia drama part 2. Team 24 will be Poland or Sweden.
Plus the five African nations makes 29. The favourites are Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.
The final three places will be decided by play off in June so we will have a few “OR”s appearing in the draw like the FA Cup. :-)
- Wales OR Scotland OR Ukraine - Costa Rica OR New Zealand OR Solomon Islands - Peru OR Colombia OR Chile OR Australia OR UAE OR Iraq
One thing I didn’t realise is that the draw is only five days away.
We have 20 qualified teams: Qatar, Germany, Denmark, Brazil, France, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Argentina, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Uruguay & Canada.
You can add the USA and Mexico in a few days for twenty two. Portugal should make it 23 unless there is North Macedonia drama part 2. Team 24 will be Poland or Sweden.
Plus the five African nations makes 29. The favourites are Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.
The final three places will be decided by play off in June so we will have a few “OR”s appearing in the draw like the FA Cup. :-)
- Wales OR Scotland OR Ukraine - Costa Rica OR New Zealand OR Solomon Islands - Peru OR Colombia OR Chile OR Australia OR UAE OR Iraq
Don't they usually do the draw with the name of the team on a piece of paper?? lol that's gonna be a long bit of paper
Notice from Wiki that the draw will be determined by the FIFA World Rankings at the end of March... Thankfully we're 5th at the moment, with Italy not qualifying I cant see how we wont be one of the top seed.
Qatar | Belgium | Brazil | France | Argentina | England | Spain | Portugal OR Denmark
This is all then guess work, but based on the last World Cup the next Pot should be:
P2: Portugal OR Denmark | Netherlands | Germany | Mexico | United States | Switzerland | Croatia
Wales | Scotland | Ukraine, along with the two InterContinental Play-Off winners will go into Pot Four
One thing I didn’t realise is that the draw is only five days away.
We have 20 qualified teams: Qatar, Germany, Denmark, Brazil, France, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Argentina, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Uruguay & Canada.
You can add the USA and Mexico in a few days for twenty two. Portugal should make it 23 unless there is North Macedonia drama part 2. Team 24 will be Poland or Sweden.
Plus the five African nations makes 29. The favourites are Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.
The final three places will be decided by play off in June so we will have a few “OR”s appearing in the draw like the FA Cup. :-)
- Wales OR Scotland OR Ukraine - Costa Rica OR New Zealand OR Solomon Islands - Peru OR Colombia OR Chile OR Australia OR UAE OR Iraq
Don't they usually do the draw with the name of the team on a piece of paper?? lol that's gonna be a long bit of paper
One thing I didn’t realise is that the draw is only five days away.
We have 20 qualified teams: Qatar, Germany, Denmark, Brazil, France, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Argentina, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Uruguay & Canada.
You can add the USA and Mexico in a few days for twenty two. Portugal should make it 23 unless there is North Macedonia drama part 2. Team 24 will be Poland or Sweden.
Plus the five African nations makes 29. The favourites are Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.
The final three places will be decided by play off in June so we will have a few “OR”s appearing in the draw like the FA Cup. :-)
- Wales OR Scotland OR Ukraine - Costa Rica OR New Zealand OR Solomon Islands - Peru OR Colombia OR Chile OR Australia OR UAE OR Iraq
Don't they usually do the draw with the name of the team on a piece of paper?? lol that's gonna be a long bit of paper
Haha yes but by the time the draw rolls around on Friday, those six names will be cut down to three (one CONMEBOL and two AFC) so you’re going to see something like
Peru OR Australia OR Iraq
as an example.
Six names on a piece of paper would be fun no doubt. :-)
Notice from Wiki that the draw will be determined by the FIFA World Rankings at the end of March... Thankfully we're 5th at the moment, with Italy not qualifying I cant see how we wont be one of the top seed.
Qatar | Belgium | Brazil | France | Argentina | England | Spain | Portugal OR Denmark
This is all then guess work, but based on the last World Cup the next Pot should be:
P2: Portugal OR Denmark | Netherlands | Germany | Mexico | United States | Switzerland | Croatia
Wales | Scotland | Ukraine, along with the two InterContinental Play-Off winners will go into Pot Four
Let's assume all the highest ranked teams left to qualify do so... this would be the pots based on current world rankings from https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings
Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal
Pot 2: Netherlands, Mexico, USA, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Uruguay, Croatia
Pot 3: Sweden, Senegal, Japan, Iran, Serbia, Morocco, South Korea, Nigeria
Pot 4: Tunisia, Canada, Algeria, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, PO1 (Colombia), PO2 (Wales), PO3 (Costa Rica)
Bolded are the teams who haven't officially qualified yet so teams ranked below them can still move up into better pots if we see some shock results.
Notice from Wiki that the draw will be determined by the FIFA World Rankings at the end of March... Thankfully we're 5th at the moment, with Italy not qualifying I cant see how we wont be one of the top seed.
Qatar | Belgium | Brazil | France | Argentina | England | Spain | Portugal OR Denmark
This is all then guess work, but based on the last World Cup the next Pot should be:
P2: Portugal OR Denmark | Netherlands | Germany | Mexico | United States | Switzerland | Croatia
Wales | Scotland | Ukraine, along with the two InterContinental Play-Off winners will go into Pot Four
Let's assume all the highest ranked teams left to qualify do so... this would be the pots based on current world rankings from https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings
Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal
Pot 2: Netherlands, Mexico, USA, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Uruguay, Croatia
Pot 3: Sweden, Colombia, Wales, Senegal, Japan, Iran, Serbia, Morocco
Pot 4: South Korea, Nigeria, Tunisia, Canada, Costa Rica, Algeria, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia
Bolded are the teams who haven't officially qualified yet so teams ranked below them can still move up into better pots if we see some shock results.
Wales cant end up in Pot Three, neither would Colombia if they're the side going through the Play-Offs
I would be shocked if Portugal, Mexico and the US do not confirm their places within the next couple of days & that would settle Pots 1 and 2. From there, pots 3 and 4 are still a bit messy but the outline is taking shape.
Notice from Wiki that the draw will be determined by the FIFA World Rankings at the end of March... Thankfully we're 5th at the moment, with Italy not qualifying I cant see how we wont be one of the top seed.
Qatar | Belgium | Brazil | France | Argentina | England | Spain | Portugal OR Denmark
This is all then guess work, but based on the last World Cup the next Pot should be:
P2: Portugal OR Denmark | Netherlands | Germany | Mexico | United States | Switzerland | Croatia
Wales | Scotland | Ukraine, along with the two InterContinental Play-Off winners will go into Pot Four
Let's assume all the highest ranked teams left to qualify do so... this would be the pots based on current world rankings from https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings
Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal
Pot 2: Netherlands, Mexico, USA, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Uruguay, Croatia
Pot 3: Sweden, Colombia, Wales, Senegal, Japan, Iran, Serbia, Morocco
Pot 4: South Korea, Nigeria, Tunisia, Canada, Costa Rica, Algeria, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia
Bolded are the teams who haven't officially qualified yet so teams ranked below them can still move up into better pots if we see some shock results.
Wales cant end up in Pot Three, neither would Colombia if they're the side going through the Play-Offs
Yeah sorry that was a mistake on my part. I had already made a couple of them that I had to fix! This is tricky business apparently.
why can’t wales be a pot 2/3 team if it’s based on current world rankings ?
The draw is taking place on Friday before their playoff place is finalised. They are being put into pot 4 by default alongside the intercontinental playoff teams who also play in June.
If they had played Scotland/Ukraine tomorrow and won, they would likely be in pot 3.
Colombia/Peru/Chile will also be at a disadvantage from this rule as they could expect to be in pot 3 if they had played their play off game before the draw takes place.
Are there rules regarding the draw so that you can't get (for example) 4 Euro sides in one group?
England, Germany, Sweden, Wales for example i guess can't happen?
Yeah can only be two European teams per Group
I presume it’s the same for South American teams? Which makes it difficult if they don’t get know the winner of the interncontinental playoff yet.
Nope just the European teams
Its because there are 14 (?) European teams so its mathematically impossible to avoid having a minimum of two per most Groups - The other continents have five spots at most, so its easier to keep them apart.
Guess that Inter-Continental winner will just be kept apart from Brazil | Argentina | Qatar
Are there rules regarding the draw so that you can't get (for example) 4 Euro sides in one group?
England, Germany, Sweden, Wales for example i guess can't happen?
Yeah can only be two European teams per Group
I presume it’s the same for South American teams? Which makes it difficult if they don’t get know the winner of the interncontinental playoff yet.
Nope just the European teams
Its because there are 14 (?) European teams so its mathematically impossible to avoid having a minimum of two per most Groups - The other continents have five spots at most, so its easier to keep them apart.
Guess that Inter-Continental winner will just be kept apart from Brazil | Argentina | Qatar
Sorry I meant you can’t have two teams from the same continent outside Europe in a group, which I thought might make the draw difficult if you don’t know the teams. But as you mention, it’s fairly simple.
Qatar | Netherlands | Sweden | Tunisia Brazil | Mexico | Senegal | Costa Rica Belgium | Croatia | Japan | Ecuador France | Denmark | Iran | Canada Argentina | Germany | Morocco | Saudi Arabia England | Switzerland | South Korea | Colombia Spain | Uruguay | Nigeria | Wales Portugal | United States | Serbia | Algeria
I think the rule is no more than two from Europe, no more than one from any other continent and the international play-off winners are also kept apart from the teams from the continent they beat in the playoff final, as well as their own. There are also some individual countries which get kept apart, but that's usually only an issue in qualifiers. Russia and Ukraine were kept apart in the playoffs. I don't know if they would have been kept apart in the event that they both qualified, but that's not relevant now anyway.
If I've understood the rules right (which is a very big if), Colombia can't be in a group with an Asian team.
Lots to be decided tomorrow… here are the games with something to play for with U.K. kick off times.
Syria v Iraq 2:45pm UAE v South Korea 2:45pm
Nigeria v Ghana 6pm Senegal v Egypt 6pm
Poland v Sweden 7:45pm Portugal v North Macedonia 7:45pm
Algeria v Cameroon 8:30pm Morocco v DR Congo 8:30pm Tunisia v Mali 8:30pm
Chile v Uruguay 12:30am Peru v Paraguay 12:30am Venezuela v Colombia 12:30am
Big day today.
Seven more qualifiers will be confirmed including the five African participants plus two European.
That will take us to 27 qualified teams with the US and Mexico set to confirm their places (barring catastrophe) tomorrow for the final 29.
In addition, we will be finding out the make-up of the CONMEBOL v AFC intercontinental play-off. Australia are confirmed to be involved and they will be joined by UAE or Iraq from AFC plus one of Colombia, Peru or Chile from CONMEBOL.
Tomorrow also sees the confirmation of the CONCACAF v OFC intercontinental playoff. Highly likely to be Costa Rica v New Zealand but both have matches to play tomorrow to confirm that.
I think the rule is no more than two from Europe, no more than one from any other continent and the international play-off winners are also kept apart from the teams from the continent they beat in the playoff final, as well as their own. There are also some individual countries which get kept apart, but that's usually only an issue in qualifiers. Russia and Ukraine were kept apart in the playoffs. I don't know if they would have been kept apart in the event that they both qualified, but that's not relevant now anyway.
If I've understood the rules right (which is a very big if), Colombia can't be in a group with an Asian team.
Yes, you can’t have teams from the same confederation drawn against each other. There is an exception for Europe who have 13 teams to fit into 8 groups - every group must have at least one European country and no more than two to ensure an even spread of UEFA participation.
Another consequence that comes out of this rule with yet to be played play-offs is for example, if we assume the intercontinental playoff is Australia v Colombia, Australia could not be drawn into a group with a South American side as their ‘ball’ in the draw will be tied to both the Asian and South American confederation. No Brazil or Argentina for the Aussies.
Similarly, if New Zealand made it past Costa Rica, they can’t end up in a group with Mexico or the US.
Wales/Scotland/Ukraine will be uneffected by this rule as they all play under the same confederation and will be subject to the same rules as every other UEFA participant.
Qatar | Netherlands | Sweden | Tunisia Brazil | Mexico | Senegal | Costa Rica Belgium | Croatia | Japan | Ecuador France | Denmark | Iran | Canada Argentina | Germany | Morocco | Saudi Arabia England | Switzerland | South Korea | Colombia Spain | Uruguay | Nigeria | Wales Portugal | United States | Serbia | Algeria
The groups in bold wouldn’t be allowed to exist under the current rules. Every group requires at least one UEFA participant whilst Mexico and Costa Rica are both from the same confederation so will be kept apart.
You could fix theoretical Group B by swapping Costa Rica and Wales from your theoretical Group G.
B: Brazil, Mexico, Senegal, Wales G: Spain, Uruguay, Nigeria, Costa Rica
In theoretical Group F, Colombia cannot be drawn with South Korea due to the intercontinental play-off rule. Swap them with Algeria from H to fix that one. Or swapping South Korea and Senegal from Group B achieves the same goal.
F: England, Switzerland, South Korea, Algeria H: Portugal, US, Serbia, Colombia or F: England. Switzerland, Senegal, Colombia B: Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Wales
Comments
USA 4-0 up at half time over Panama. That would eliminate Panama and all but confirm the qualification of the US.
Mexico goalless with Honduras.
1 Canada 28pts (Q)
2 USA 25pts +13
3 Mexico 25pts +7
-
4 Costa Rica 22pts +3
-
5 Panama 18pts (E)
Costa Rica v USA
Mexico v El Salvador
Costa Rica must beat the US by six goals for the US to not automatically qualify. Five goals would have them level on goal difference but US have more goals scored.
The only other way Costa Rica get in automatically is if Mexico lose at home to El Salvador (by a goal at best) while they beat the US by four.
We have 20 qualified teams: Qatar, Germany, Denmark, Brazil, France, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Argentina, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Uruguay & Canada.
You can add the USA and Mexico in a few days for twenty two. Portugal should make it 23 unless there is North Macedonia drama part 2. Team 24 will be Poland or Sweden.
The final three places will be decided by play off in June so we will have a few “OR”s appearing in the draw like the FA Cup. :-)
- Wales OR Scotland OR Ukraine
- Costa Rica OR New Zealand OR Solomon Islands
- Peru OR Colombia OR Chile OR Australia OR UAE OR Iraq
Qatar | Belgium | Brazil | France | Argentina | England | Spain | Portugal OR Denmark
This is all then guess work, but based on the last World Cup the next Pot should be:
P2: Portugal OR Denmark | Netherlands | Germany | Mexico | United States | Switzerland | Croatia
Wales | Scotland | Ukraine, along with the two InterContinental Play-Off winners will go into Pot Four
Peru OR Australia OR Iraq
as an example.
Six names on a piece of paper would be fun no doubt. :-)
Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal
Pot 2: Netherlands, Mexico, USA, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Uruguay, Croatia
Pot 3: Sweden, Senegal, Japan, Iran, Serbia, Morocco, South Korea, Nigeria
Pot 4: Tunisia, Canada, Algeria, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, PO1 (Colombia), PO2 (Wales), PO3 (Costa Rica)
Bolded are the teams who haven't officially qualified yet so teams ranked below them can still move up into better pots if we see some shock results.
Ok it should be finally fixed now.
The post has been updated now. :-)
Syria v Iraq 2:45pm
UAE v South Korea 2:45pm
Nigeria v Ghana 6pm
Senegal v Egypt 6pm
Poland v Sweden 7:45pm
Portugal v North Macedonia 7:45pm
Algeria v Cameroon 8:30pm
Morocco v DR Congo 8:30pm
Tunisia v Mali 8:30pm
Chile v Uruguay 12:30am
Peru v Paraguay 12:30am
Venezuela v Colombia 12:30am
If they had played Scotland/Ukraine tomorrow and won, they would likely be in pot 3.
Colombia/Peru/Chile will also be at a disadvantage from this rule as they could expect to be in pot 3 if they had played their play off game before the draw takes place.
England, Germany, Sweden, Wales for example i guess can't happen?
Its because there are 14 (?) European teams so its mathematically impossible to avoid having a minimum of two per most Groups - The other continents have five spots at most, so its easier to keep them apart.
Guess that Inter-Continental winner will just be kept apart from Brazil | Argentina | Qatar
Qatar | Netherlands | Sweden | Tunisia
Brazil | Mexico | Senegal | Costa Rica
Belgium | Croatia | Japan | Ecuador
France | Denmark | Iran | Canada
Argentina | Germany | Morocco | Saudi Arabia
England | Switzerland | South Korea | Colombia
Spain | Uruguay | Nigeria | Wales
Portugal | United States | Serbia | Algeria
If I've understood the rules right (which is a very big if), Colombia can't be in a group with an Asian team.
Seven more qualifiers will be confirmed including the five African participants plus two European.
Another consequence that comes out of this rule with yet to be played play-offs is for example, if we assume the intercontinental playoff is Australia v Colombia, Australia could not be drawn into a group with a South American side as their ‘ball’ in the draw will be tied to both the Asian and South American confederation. No Brazil or Argentina for the Aussies.
Similarly, if New Zealand made it past Costa Rica, they can’t end up in a group with Mexico or the US.
Wales/Scotland/Ukraine will be uneffected by this rule as they all play under the same confederation and will be subject to the same rules as every other UEFA participant.
You could fix theoretical Group B by swapping Costa Rica and Wales from your theoretical Group G.
B: Brazil, Mexico, Senegal, Wales
G: Spain, Uruguay, Nigeria, Costa Rica
In theoretical Group F, Colombia cannot be drawn with South Korea due to the intercontinental play-off rule. Swap them with Algeria from H to fix that one. Or swapping South Korea and Senegal from Group B achieves the same goal.
F: England, Switzerland, South Korea, Algeria
H: Portugal, US, Serbia, Colombia
or
F: England. Switzerland, Senegal, Colombia
B: Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Wales
Other two games are firmly in the balance at Half-Time.
Syria 1-1 Iraq and United Arab Emirates 0-0 South Korea
Iraq need to win and hope UAE dont, for the former to end up against Australia.
The match is live on the OneFootball app in the UK if you want to watch.
https://onefootball.com/en/match/2232118
https://onefootball.com/en/match/2232119