The Masters 2020 Thread
Sky Bet is paying 1/5 odds for the TOP 11. I will take a look at other offers and post up also by the end of today.
Early thoughts - Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Tyrell Hatton all finished this weekend strongly and Bryson DeChambeau played a practise round at August over the weekend and had nothing longer than an EIGHT IRON in to any hole. He MIGHT brutalise the course and particulary the par 5s.
Anyway, thoughts to come and good luck all!
Comments
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Watched Tyrrell Hatton quite a bit recently.
Think his game will suit.
That's Where my money's going.1 -
Koepka and Adam Scott both e/w0
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Dustin Johnson for me .0
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Scott would have been a choice for me up until Saturday back nine where he fell apart and then yesterday he was very average.Elthamaddick said:Koepka and Adam Scott both e/w0 -
DJ,Koepka and an e/w on Rory. McIlroy has the game to win at Augusta but i think he's so desperate to that it just stops him from doing so if that makes sense? I think its a mental thing from when he blew up in the final round all those years ago and maybe that was,in his mind,his biggest chance of winning,who knows. Hope im wrong as i would love him to do it.0
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I fancy Jon Rahm, but it seems like there's a lot of very good players with very good chances this year. Expecting to see Hatton, Schauffele, Thomas, Cantlay all there or thereabouts come Sunday. Would love to add Rory to that list as well but is not playing well since the return.
DJ is in a seriously good run of form, but I just don't fancy him at Majors. He'll no doubt prove that wrong at some point soon though.
As much as Bryson is fascinating, I really hope he doesn't manage to completely overpower it and run away with it.1 -
Matsuyama, Finau and Fleetwood all E/W
DJ to win it I reckon0 -
So, outside of the general research of The Masters and Augusta, it has to be said that three golfers this weekend improved their expected fortunes before Augusta : -
Dustin Johnson. Finishing second this weekend he looked very, very good. A number of putts shaved the hole and he sank some outrageously good long putts. He is the world number one again and with the par 5s key to scoring on, he just looks very, very solid.
Tyrell Hatton. Having won at Wentworth a few weeks ago, he jumped immediately on a plane and has contented in each of the next 3 events in the US. Each time he had one sketchy round which cost him higher placing, however he has placed in each event and yesterday he had a fabulous finishing round and I think he is in the best form of his life.
Brooks Koepka. Two great rounds this weekend – two 65s and he looks to have overcome his injury problems. He used a new driver on Thursday and Friday and decided to switch back to his old driver for the weekend and reaped the rewards. Back to form – is there a better golfer in recent majors’ history?
Bryson DeChambeau. I must consider him. His weekend practice round at Augusta was remarkable. Nothing more than an 8 iron into any par 4….. that is frightening. If his driving is on, he’s going to go low at some point.
I am not particularly leaning towards any other Europeans right now. Their form has been too patchy. Justin Rose has shown some signs of returning to a little bit of form, Tommy Fleetwood got into positions during the UK swing to win only to fall away in the 4th round each time. Two stick out. John Rahm. Fighting with DJ and Justin Thomas for World Number 1 he has been very solid without taking any tournament by the scruff of the neck and spanking the field. And Ian Poulter. Despite concerns of a niggly back injury (he missed this weekend’s event to rest it) he has been very impressive in both the US and Europe over the last couple of months. I also think there is no better putter or short game player in the world consistently and he’s added length to his game. He also owes Augusta one as he threw away his chances at the infamous par 3 a few years back…..
THINGS TO CONSIDER
Despite it being Autumn, the weather looks good. 27 – 28 degrees. Recent form in previous years has been an indicator with players sharpening their game to be peaking first week of April, whereas this year it is coming to the end of what would be a season, but we are into a new season already and this will be new to all. All but Adam Scott in previous years had a recent top 20 finish for nearly every year of the last 20 years. Regular winners from the top 29 in the world, are not in the top 29 in the betting rankings. Nobody outside the top 70 of the PGA field of distance to Apex ratings since 2009 (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02406.html)
Rookies are traditionally not good to back (outside of Jordan Spieth winning), however I think somebody like Matt Wolff is better than your usual Rookie. He has hit the ground running as a PGA pro and could be the next superstar.
Greens In Regulation is usually a good indicator from current form as well (previous 10 weeks tracker), with only Patrick Reed being outside the top 10 recent greens in regulation stats for recent wins – including Woods (2nd), Willet (6th), Garcia (2nd) . The current tracker (outside of the Houston Open) for the last 8 weeks we have : -
1) Bubba Watson
2) John Rahm
3) Tony Finau
4) Sung Jae Im
5) Erik Van Rooyen and Zack Johnson
6) Dustin Johnson
7) Lee Westwood
8) Matt Wallace
Par 4 birdie or better is also a very good indicator (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.113.html)
CONCLUSIONSTaking all of this into consideration and what I have said regarding form horses, my choices come from
Bryson DeChambeau
Matt Wolff (DESPITE BEING A ROOKIE THIS YEAR)
Brooks Koepka
Tyrell Hatton
Ian Poulter
Bubba Watson
Dustin Johnson
John Rahm
EW “stats say” but I just don’t know if they can win
Tony Finau
Lee Westwood
I think Westwood will be solid and if his odds are long enough, 1/5th top 11 with Sky Bet could just be giving money, but he can’t and won’t win however he could be a very solid returning ew bet. Tony Finau – I just can’t back him – always avoid him – in my opinion, he just won’t get the job done and again though if his odds are long enough and you can get 1/5th top 11 with Sky Bet (he is currently 25/1 or 30/1 with the HOTSHOTS* promotion) it could well just be giving you some returns on your money. His stats show he is a very good golfer, he just doesn’t win. An acceptable price at 1/5th top 11 at 25/1 could be some value, but I think I am going to say no and kick myself is he does place as it will be like a 5/2 win…..
I would think there is more chance of Finau placing than McIlroy and at much better price, but there is more chance of McIlroy winning than Finau. If you get my drift.
· NOTE SKY BET ARE RUNNING THEIR “HOTSHOTS” OFFER – WHICH IS IF YOU OPT IN AND BET £5+ ON A GOLFER, YOU GET £1 FOR EACH BIRDIE THAT GOLFER GETS IN THE FIRST ROUND OF THE MASTERS. THEIR ODDS ARE ALSO IMPROVED ON THE HOTSHOTS PRICE LIST. I am not sponsored by Sky Bet, by the way – I usually use Paddy Power :-)
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Will be interesting to see how the course is set up & if the greens & fairways are the same in November as they are in early April. It would be different it it was a UK course - playing a links course in July is completely different to one in November, but I have no idea if that is the same for Georgia.
Reed looked good last month when he was over here & you can never look past Dustin Johnson or Woods. DeChambeau may be able to blast it 330 yards off the tee but playing Augusta you have to be cute on the greens & if you miss on the wrong side you are looking at bogeys galore.0 -
Always too much hype around DJ and Brooks ahead of a major, you can probably lump Bryson in that group too after the way he performed at Winged Foot. Can’t see the bookies offering any value in their prices. They are automatically off my shortlist.Rory, JT or Xander either not in form or getting a reputation for coming close but not being able to seal the win. Won’t be following them either.
Only golfer from the top group I’m struggling to build a case against is Rahm. 11/1 with nine places e/w at William Hill.
Other prices that are interesting to me:
Matsuyama 28/1 8 places at Betfred
Simpson 33/1 10 places at Paddy/Betfair
Scheffler 60/1 8 places at Betfred/Bet365
Fitzpatrick 66/1 8 places at Betfred/Bet365
Munoz 150/1 11 places at Sky
Hun-An 225/1 8 places at Bet365 / 200/1 11 places at Sky
With less than 100 golfers and a handful of amateurs/retired ex-winners, I don’t fancy following all seven of them but will do a bit more reading on the above players before I cement a final four/five.1 - Sponsored links:
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I have backed for the win, main bet-Matt Woolf, also Koepka and Morikawa0
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Seen a few fair mentions for Hatton so will back him.
Have backed Cantlay so far.0 -
Sergio Garcia not playing, Corona virus0
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A lot of people mentioning Hatton but I just can't see it. Dustin looked impressive the weekend and perfect warm up for him. Rahm is solid and will be there or thereabouts but just not sure if he will win. Bryson I can see either tearing the course up or a complete blow out because of Augusta's tricks on and around the greens. Xander is a player I like and think Augusta will suit him.Will go through the field tomorrow and decide where my money is going. Did hear they expect the greens to play as fast as they do in April, will be interesting to see if the course does play differently.0
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do a comp at work where you pick 1 golfer from
uk & ireland
europe
rest of world
america
£20 buy in pot is around 4k minus 150 for 2nd 100 for 3rd and 50 for 4th and 5th
my picks are
hatton
molinari
matuyama
reed
my bets are
fowler ew - 55/1 - just always back him
wallace ew - 150/1
hatton ew - 22/1
cantlay ew - 18/1
all 11 places 1/5 odds with skybet0 -
I only really bet majors, dip in and out of golf so not really that clued up.
I have gone for the following:
Bryan Dechambeau 8/1 Hotshots £10 outright, Hotshots you get £1 every birdie on the first round
Patrik Reed 28/1 , £5 first round leader, personally i think it will favour a long hitter just a punt really looks reasonable price
Tony Finau, £2.50 ew 30/1 first round leader, course should suit him and usually starts majors quite well (no facts), used to bet him EW alot before he was more fancied and did ok
For now, always have half an eye on in play market if i feel someone is due to hit form and good value.1 -
I’ve gone for Brooks, DJ, Bryson and Hatton. Bet365 as they had slightly better odds when I made the bet than Skybet did.0
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Ok i have just added 3
£2.50 ew on rose outright @ 55
£2 ew on Schneideker @ 125
50p ew on Nate Lashley @ 500 - I simply just choose one long odds where i didnt really know much, looked him up looks reasonable. yep a punt but its £1 stake
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Hatton's last few starts ....killer kish said:A lot of people mentioning Hatton but I just can't see it. Dustin looked impressive the weekend and perfect warm up for him. Rahm is solid and will be there or thereabouts but just not sure if he will win. Bryson I can see either tearing the course up or a complete blow out because of Augusta's tricks on and around the greens. Xander is a player I like and think Augusta will suit him.Will go through the field tomorrow and decide where my money is going. Did hear they expect the greens to play as fast as they do in April, will be interesting to see if the course does play differently.
WENTWORTH (BMW PGA - Flagship European Tour Event) WON
CJ CUP 3RD (straight off the plane after BMW)
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP 28th (3rd week in a row of playing golf and straight from UK to US the week before)
HOUSTON (after a week's break) 7th
Most in form European golfer in the world, who's been in the US for three weeks now to acclimatise and is NOW NUMBER NINE IN THE WORLD.....
And you can't see it... oh well.... don't say I didn't say he has a chance....2 -
I know the form he is in and it's all about opinions. I just don't believe he has what it takes at the top level. Bit like Monty won many tournaments World wide but not a major.1
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28/1 1/5th price Top 11. I didn't believe he had it in him until he won at Wentworth last month.killer kish said:I know the form he is in and it's all about opinions. I just don't believe he has what it takes at the top level. Bit like Monty won many tournaments World wide but not a major.2 -
Can this be the Masters thread? Betting and non betting? Want somewhere to put this...4
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I showed that to Golfie Jnr last night. Amazing shot.Callumcafc said:Can this be the Masters thread? Betting and non betting? Want somewhere to put this...1 -
It might aswell, no reason to have another thread and more interest. That was ridiculous, never seen anything like it. I thought at first it might be his bunker shot he did on sky before when he was doing it with a 4 iron to get out of a massive bunker, so much talent!golfaddick said:
I showed that to Golfie Jnr last night. Amazing shot.Callumcafc said:Can this be the Masters thread? Betting and non betting? Want somewhere to put this...0 -
Looked like he thinned it a bit to me 😉4
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I've done Schauffele to win and Casey, Fowler & Kokrak e/w. Going to be interesting to see how a November Masters plays out especially with some rain expected. Good luck to all.0
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Day and Koepka to win. I've been struggling to find much value.
So Mickelson, Schwartzel, Glover, Leishman, Walker, Weir, Olazabel, Mize all to miss the cut is 37/1.
Finau & Kokrak for first round leader.
Bryson to beat Xander and DJ in separate forecasts.
Sounds like a lot of rain is coming tomorrow so there may be some delays.
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I’m going to be really boring and say I can see the winner coming from this group of players and can’t see any outsiders that have a chance of winning.DeChambeau,Johnson,Rahm,Thomas,McLlroy,Schauffele,Koepka and Matsuyama.But the only three from the above I can’t find any negatives are Johnson,Rahm and Koepka so these are the three I have backed.
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No Hatton? ;-)killer kish said:I’m going to be really boring and say I can see the winner coming from this group of players and can’t see any outsiders that have a chance of winning.DeChambeau,Johnson,Rahm,Thomas,McLlroy,Schauffele,Koepka and Matsuyama.But the only three from the above I can’t find any negatives are Johnson,Rahm and Koepka so these are the three I have backed.1 -
Rain is forecast for all 4 days so may suit the European players more as they are more used to such conditions0
