Here are some stats to help you with horses not to back and these are all inclusive 2000-2019 Festivals. No horse rated below 151 has won either the Champion Hurdle,Champion Chase,Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup.....0 wins from 175 horses and only 19 placed No horse rated below 113 has won any race......0 wins from 142 horses and only 6 placed. No horse with its last race at Huntingdon has won......0 wins from 128 horses and only 16 placed. David Pipe runners on the Friday 0 wins from 60 horses and only 4 placed plus his Fathers race (Martin Pipe Hurdle) 0 wins from 19 horses and only 1 placed.
Another couple stats for the Grand Annual on the Friday Last 9 winners all ran at the previous years Festival and no horse who won a handicap chase the same National Hunt season has won this race either 0 wins from 106 horses.
Also had a catch up with a couple guys who run tipping services and well known websites and these were the following five bankers of the meeting Benie Des Dieux Mares hudle Envoi Allen Ballymore hurdle Tiger Roll Cross Country chase Appreciate It Bumper Paisley Park Stayers hurdle Also these were the five best outsiders Big River Ultima chase Dallas De Pictons Novice Handicap chase Rowlands Ward Boodles hurdle Robin Des Florets Plate Handicap chase Remiluc County hurdle
So far my ante posts are looking well 25/1 Shishkin supreme 10/1 envoi Allen any race
These have come in a lot, just checked. 9/4 for Shish now, 1/1 for Envoi any race. Nice bet, one would presume.
New to this thread as I got lost... I go on the Tuesday, go to Bristol Monday, stay up there and get the train on Tuesday. First timer, hopefully the weather doesn't affect it too much.
Had a few bets but don't tend to get too involved antepost these days with so many mad place terms come the day.
A WAVE OF THE SEA (Triumph Hurdle) - was really impresses with him earlier in the season but then went off boil a bit (maybe plot for Fred Winter tbf) but came back last time out. Think Triumph will really suit over the new course.
ARAMON (County) - had been chipping away at him at three fig prices for the Champion but seems likely to go for the County now. Thought he'd get a mark in the 150s but gets in on 149 which underestimates him by about a stone.
SHARJAH (Champion) - put up best performance of season at Xmas but blew out last time (maybe feeling affects of previous run?) needs to bounce back but feel he is the best hurdler around.
MONALEE (Gold Cup) - this to me at prices right now is the bet of the meeting. Has quite a similar profile to Don Cossack going RSA, Ryanair then here. Was so unlucky at Xmas and can be marked up for that run having gone really hard mid race and then Rachael losing her irons after the last. Form franked next time out with Delta Work winning and beating the same horses again. I like the straight to Cheltenham prep from Xmas, and whilst there is a question mark on stamina, in his pedigree he should love it being by Milan out of a half sister to a Thyestes winner. He's beaten Al Boum Photo before, and was all the rage in his novice season. 25/1 is an absolutely crazy price.
MISTER FISHER (Arkle) - seems like he'll go for JLT, which as a 50/1 backer for the Arkle will be a sickener!
Mad what the bookies will price up... 4/6 seems like buying money to me but what do I know?
Too many panicked people jumping on the other side because “if it’s not going ahead, at least I’ll make a bit of money”.
I've heard a lot of the people betting it won't go ahead are local business owners hedging their bets in case it's cancelled and they lose all that revenue.
Then again, none of us exactly have experience pricing up Coronavirus disruption...
one thing i think people haven't considered when backing the NO market is it being on behind closed doors would still mean it is on just with no spectators.
one thing i think people haven't considered when backing the NO market is it being on behind closed doors would still mean it is on just with no spectators.
Yeah, it'll be on. The other thing to also consider is potential storm impact.
I don't think people are considering all that much when it comes to the 'No' market - it's hysteria and hedging one's bets I think. But I highly doubt we see a cancellation unless there are an incredible amount of new cases tonight/tomorrow.
Any updates, assuming all is ok now? I am going next week, hopefully it all goes ahead regardless of weather. Don't really think the Coronavirus will be an issue, should hope not.
Stat for the RSA Chase..... The last 22 winners have all finished in the first three in there last race.... Champ who is the current favourite didn't.
minella indo for me.
Backed him at long odds in last year's Albert Bartlett with Betfair, so have a soft spot for the horse. Hasn't set the World alight yet over fences but I'll definitely be backing him too.
Comments
No horse rated below 151 has won either the Champion Hurdle,Champion Chase,Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup.....0 wins from 175 horses and only 19 placed
No horse rated below 113 has won any race......0 wins from 142 horses and only 6 placed.
No horse with its last race at Huntingdon has won......0 wins from 128 horses and only 16 placed.
David Pipe runners on the Friday 0 wins from 60 horses and only 4 placed plus his Fathers race (Martin Pipe Hurdle) 0 wins from 19 horses and only 1 placed.
Last 9 winners all ran at the previous years Festival and no horse who won a handicap chase the same National Hunt season has won this race either 0 wins from 106 horses.
Benie Des Dieux Mares hudle
Envoi Allen Ballymore hurdle
Tiger Roll Cross Country chase
Appreciate It Bumper
Paisley Park Stayers hurdle
Also these were the five best outsiders
Big River Ultima chase
Dallas De Pictons Novice Handicap chase
Rowlands Ward Boodles hurdle
Robin Des Florets Plate Handicap chase
Remiluc County hurdle
4/11 that it does
So still odds on that it does go ahead but still crazy that its only 4/11 chance of going ahead
Bloody Coronavirus
These have come in a lot, just checked. 9/4 for Shish now, 1/1 for Envoi any race. Nice bet, one would presume.
New to this thread as I got lost... I go on the Tuesday, go to Bristol Monday, stay up there and get the train on Tuesday. First timer, hopefully the weather doesn't affect it too much.
Not that I have much experience pricing up Coronavirus disruption - but then no one does lol
A WAVE OF THE SEA (Triumph Hurdle) - was really impresses with him earlier in the season but then went off boil a bit (maybe plot for Fred Winter tbf) but came back last time out. Think Triumph will really suit over the new course.
ARAMON (County) - had been chipping away at him at three fig prices for the Champion but seems likely to go for the County now. Thought he'd get a mark in the 150s but gets in on 149 which underestimates him by about a stone.
SHARJAH (Champion) - put up best performance of season at Xmas but blew out last time (maybe feeling affects of previous run?) needs to bounce back but feel he is the best hurdler around.
MONALEE (Gold Cup) - this to me at prices right now is the bet of the meeting. Has quite a similar profile to Don Cossack going RSA, Ryanair then here. Was so unlucky at Xmas and can be marked up for that run having gone really hard mid race and then Rachael losing her irons after the last. Form franked next time out with Delta Work winning and beating the same horses again. I like the straight to Cheltenham prep from Xmas, and whilst there is a question mark on stamina, in his pedigree he should love it being by Milan out of a half sister to a Thyestes winner. He's beaten Al Boum Photo before, and was all the rage in his novice season. 25/1 is an absolutely crazy price.
MISTER FISHER (Arkle) - seems like he'll go for JLT, which as a 50/1 backer for the Arkle will be a sickener!
Its now
7/5 that it doesnt go ahead
4/6 that it does
Big movement in 48 hours from 4/11 to 4/6
Too many panicked people jumping on the other side because “if it’s not going ahead, at least I’ll make a bit of money”.
Then again, none of us exactly have experience pricing up Coronavirus disruption...
one thing i think people haven't considered when backing the NO market is it being on behind closed doors would still mean it is on just with no spectators.
I don't think people are considering all that much when it comes to the 'No' market - it's hysteria and hedging one's bets I think. But I highly doubt we see a cancellation unless there are an incredible amount of new cases tonight/tomorrow.
Hasn't set the World alight yet over fences but I'll definitely be backing him too.