Not long to go to the big one stick tips, fancies on here will do the betfair and ganleys in Morden preview nights this year will stick up what is said on here. anyone heading down I’m there the weds and Thursday stopping overnight in brum.
For a variety of reasons, I've not got as extensive an antepost Cheltenham book this year as I did last year. I've found many, many races to be quite difficult to untangle and I think I'd rather seek value nearer the time. But I have a few:
- Shishkin: Supreme, 33s (welcome @palarsehater - hopefully we're all rolling in it) - Fly Smart: Supreme, 25s (not seen him yet which has been very annoying, unknown quantity) - Don Poli: Foxhunters, 20s (possibly, if not probably, a back-to-lay venture) - Paisley Park: Stayers' @ 9/4 (now odds-on so I like this) - Kemboy: Gold Cup @ 13/2 (keeping faith from last year where was very unlucky to fall at the first) - Bumper: Power of Pause @ 25s (came 2nd in rules debut after a comfortable P2P victory, no idea what to make of it - 50s now with 365 but 25s/33s everywhere else) - Arkle: Annamix @ 33/1 (very speculative, accordingly small stakes, barely half a pt for me)
I don't really think there's too much else from which I can extract value ahead of time. The likes of the Brown, Coral Cup, Ultima, Kim Muir, Close Brothers and probably everything else Grade 3/Listed/Ungraded (except XC and maybe Foxhunters, and even then one can hunt value) will all be races to follow trends (will dig up a great list of them from last year) and decide nearer the time once entries are confirmed.
Still, if anything catches the eye, I'll put it out there.
Thought I’d start the Festival thread up instead of losing this on the Sport Of Kings thread.I have my own horse racing tipping service on a well known platform and last weekend they had a get together of there tipsters to share information and ideas and mainly to go through early thoughts on this years Festival,this is the first time I’ve attended and found it really enjoyable..So I thought I’d share all the thoughts on here and hopefully come March there would of been some nice winners and good information given?
Defu Du Seuil - Ryanair Chase,JLT Chase or Champion Chase Thyme Hill - All Novice Hurdle events Garretstown - Close Brothers Handicap Chase Delta Work - Gold Cup Bright Forecast - RSA Chase,JLT Chase Paisley Park - Stayers Hurdle,take the 6/4 now as it will be odds on on the day Canardier - Coral Cup A Plus Tard - RSA Chase Traffic Fluide - Kim Muir Chase,Ultima Chase Harambe - County Hurdle Gumball - County Hurdle Highway One O One - Brown Advisory Chanrty House - Novice Hurdles Mister Fisher - JLT Chase Berlan D’As - Has all the hallmarks of a handicap plot come Cheltenham Bravemansgame - No entries yet but keep an eye out for this horse now and at the Festival Sam Lee - Jockey and back all his mounts in the Amateur Only races
For what it’s worth my early thoughts are I completely agree as regards Paisley Park as the Stayers looks a poor race apart from the Favourite and I have already backed Thyme Hill and Defu Du Seuil ante post.
Two ante post dabbles........ Gold Cup-Presenting Percy 10/1. (could look a good or bad bet after today’s race at Leopardstown) Albert Bartlett-Ramses De Teillee 25/1
Shishkin's just mullered his rivals in a Listed contest. Not really come off the bridle there - moved in to 5/2 for the Supreme at BV (7/1 Ballymore); Betway 3/1 from 4/1; PP 8s from 12s for the Ballymore and 9/2 from 5s for Supreme.
Probably justified, but was left in front for a bit after heading a rival two out, and they weren't going overly quickly on the first circuit. Easy win though.
Not long to go to the big one stick tips, fancies on here will do the betfair and ganleys in Morden preview nights this year will stick up what is said on here. anyone heading down I’m there the weds and Thursday stopping overnight in brum.
How busy does the Ganleys preview night get @palarsehater ? I see you don't need to buy tickets but is there a chance of getting turned away if they hit capacity? Also is it murders getting a beer in etc?
My Festival betting is very much done around stats and trends and I know they are there to be broken.I agree Shishkin looks impressive but the last ten winners of the Supreme have all won a graded race,Shishkin hasn’t even ran in a graded race.
My Festival betting is very much done around stats and trends and I know they are there to be broken.I agree Shishkin looks impressive but the last ten winners of the Supreme have all won a graded race,Shishkin hasn’t even ran in a graded race.
Absolutely fair enough. I'm very glad I've got the price though, because the Supreme is a really difficult race to get right. I could possibly arb, or dutch, or back-to-lay depending on whether I feel a better horse could be the play on the day.
But if you were on 33/1 and it's now 3/1, that'll do!
Not long to go to the big one stick tips, fancies on here will do the betfair and ganleys in Morden preview nights this year will stick up what is said on here. anyone heading down I’m there the weds and Thursday stopping overnight in brum.
How busy does the Ganleys preview night get @palarsehater ? I see you don't need to buy tickets but is there a chance of getting turned away if they hit capacity? Also is it murders getting a beer in etc?
It’s a lot better than many others I’ve been to, as you can actually hear the people, last year my Mrs was sat next to me and got chatting to one of the horsey crowd turned out to be luke Harvey’s assistant and she was driving him back to Surrey after the event so we ended up having a few pints with Mick Fitzgerald ( probably one of the nicest blokes I’ve ever met genuinely loves the sport and is happy to talk about it for hours, also for a decent bit of goss on a few of the trainers but not for here.
The bar doesn’t get too busy - and no prats really as people are genuinely interested in hearing what the panel has to say. i got there around 6.30/45 last year and it started around 8.30 through till 10.30.
Not long to go to the big one stick tips, fancies on here will do the betfair and ganleys in Morden preview nights this year will stick up what is said on here. anyone heading down I’m there the weds and Thursday stopping overnight in brum.
How busy does the Ganleys preview night get @palarsehater ? I see you don't need to buy tickets but is there a chance of getting turned away if they hit capacity? Also is it murders getting a beer in etc?
It’s a lot better than many others I’ve been to, as you can actually hear the people, last year my Mrs was sat next to me and got chatting to one of the horsey crowd turned out to be luke Harvey’s assistant and she was driving him back to Surrey after the event so we ended up having a few pints with Mick Fitzgerald ( probably one of the nicest blokes I’ve ever met genuinely loves the sport and is happy to talk about it for hours, also for a decent bit of goss on a few of the trainers but not for here.
The bar doesn’t get too busy - and no prats really as people are genuinely interested in hearing what the panel has to say. i got there around 6.30/45 last year and it started around 8.30 through till 10.30.
Thanks for the response mate. Done a few in the City before (Betbright etc) but people just treat them like a piss up. This sounds much more like it so will give it a go
Been a slow day today, and I think at the head of the market for the Brown Advisory, I'd be inclined to take 16/1 about Cepage now, each way. I think it'll be where he goes, and Venetia Williams from 2008-2019 has had two winners (2009, 2013), one losing favourite, and two places from 20 runners. (On the day, Brown tends to become a 5/6 place offering, which make Williams runners slightly more profitable to back e.g. Didero Vallis in 2019.) So that's not a half-bad record.
Was on course for this race last year until an injury setback, and with the race likely to be run to suit given the size of the field (i.e. not having to front-run but able to be prominent), I think the price will get shorter closer to the day. Has won at Cheltenham this year, too, which helps immensely.
At current prices, I may also have a look at Chantry House for the Supreme at 11/1, rather than the Ballymore, despite Nicky Henderson's comments about him/AP McCoy saying he could do with another half mile after Saturday's success. That's because Nicky has a tendency to avoid confrontation outside his stable, and I reckon he'll be a bit scared of putting much up against Envoi Allen who looks a banker for the Ballymore (well done @palarsehater for that - great bet). He also won with, I suspect, an awful lot more left in the tank. Took his hurdles with quite a lot of air, but his natural engine (Geraghty was practically motionless until inside the final furlong!) seems to be a powerful one.
Am not turning this into a Shiskin bashing thread............but another stat/trend 88 horses whose last run before the Festival was at Huntingdon have all lost in fact only 1 finished in the first three! Good luck to all that have backed Shishkin especially at the prices you have got.Ive just placed the following ante post bets Supreme- Asterion Forlonge 6/1 Bumper - Appreciate It 3/1 Then them two with Paisley Park in doubles and treble
A Plus Tard looks handy too. Agree with Gold Cup, Native River back in the reckoning after Saturday. Now where will Frodon go, defend or attack so to speak.
Comments
Here are our split train tickets.
envoi Allen any race 10/1
Shishkin supreme 25/1 cheers @PaddyP17
Call me Lord Champion hurdle 25/1
Benie des dieux mares
paisley park stayers
Defi de seuil champion
treble 12/1
Lostintranslation gold cup 10/1
- Shishkin: Supreme, 33s (welcome @palarsehater - hopefully we're all rolling in it)
- Fly Smart: Supreme, 25s (not seen him yet which has been very annoying, unknown quantity)
- Don Poli: Foxhunters, 20s (possibly, if not probably, a back-to-lay venture)
- Paisley Park: Stayers' @ 9/4 (now odds-on so I like this)
- Kemboy: Gold Cup @ 13/2 (keeping faith from last year where was very unlucky to fall at the first)
- Bumper: Power of Pause @ 25s (came 2nd in rules debut after a comfortable P2P victory, no idea what to make of it - 50s now with 365 but 25s/33s everywhere else)
- Arkle: Annamix @ 33/1 (very speculative, accordingly small stakes, barely half a pt for me)
I don't really think there's too much else from which I can extract value ahead of time. The likes of the Brown, Coral Cup, Ultima, Kim Muir, Close Brothers and probably everything else Grade 3/Listed/Ungraded (except XC and maybe Foxhunters, and even then one can hunt value) will all be races to follow trends (will dig up a great list of them from last year) and decide nearer the time once entries are confirmed.
Still, if anything catches the eye, I'll put it out there.
obviously not a tip but been following and looks nailed on at 11/4
Nothing antepost for me. Wish I’d jumped on Shishkin when Paddy mentioned it!
Gold Cup-Presenting Percy 10/1. (could look a good or bad bet after today’s race at Leopardstown)
Albert Bartlett-Ramses De Teillee 25/1
the fun and games are starting with where horses will go - benie to the ch is being banded around at the moment.
Probably justified, but was left in front for a bit after heading a rival two out, and they weren't going overly quickly on the first circuit. Easy win though.
But if you were on 33/1 and it's now 3/1, that'll do!
i got there around 6.30/45 last year and it started around 8.30 through till 10.30.
25/1 Shishkin supreme
10/1 envoi Allen any race
Was on course for this race last year until an injury setback, and with the race likely to be run to suit given the size of the field (i.e. not having to front-run but able to be prominent), I think the price will get shorter closer to the day. Has won at Cheltenham this year, too, which helps immensely.
At current prices, I may also have a look at Chantry House for the Supreme at 11/1, rather than the Ballymore, despite Nicky Henderson's comments about him/AP McCoy saying he could do with another half mile after Saturday's success. That's because Nicky has a tendency to avoid confrontation outside his stable, and I reckon he'll be a bit scared of putting much up against Envoi Allen who looks a banker for the Ballymore (well done @palarsehater for that - great bet). He also won with, I suspect, an awful lot more left in the tank. Took his hurdles with quite a lot of air, but his natural engine (Geraghty was practically motionless until inside the final furlong!) seems to be a powerful one.
Supreme- Asterion Forlonge 6/1
Bumper - Appreciate It 3/1
Then them two with Paisley Park in doubles and treble