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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    The DUP are going to be aaaangry....
    I like this proposal. It seems to me it means the UK remains almost a full member of the EU until 2021. It means the UK economy does not go over a cliff, UK buseinesses do not have to make panic large investment commitments that would cause severe damage to the UK economy for decades, and best of all, it gives the growing anti Brexit movement more time to mobilise and stop Brexit altogether.
    Completely agree - could see the DUP end their confidence and supply arrangement which could be the end of the government doing the negotiating though.
    Unlikely that they would want to lose any of the leverage they have. A change of government wouldn’t help the DUP cause one bit.

  • The DUP are opposed to a hard border between NI and GB. Nothing in the Times report suggests that one would be imposed so would have thought they would be happy with the deal.
  • edited November 2017
    Jints said:

    The DUP are opposed to a hard border between NI and GB. Nothing in the Times report suggests that one would be imposed so would have thought they would be happy with the deal.

    Aren’t the DUP opposed to any special arrangement for NI as opposed to the rest of the UK ? Don’t they see that as being tantamount to a United Ireland ? Or at least a move towards that happening.

  • edited November 2017
    Surely how poorly the Brexit negotiations are going is proof enough that a single market is superior to the alternative. You think the squabbling between the UK and the EU is bad, a bilateral discussion between two parties, imagine the squabbling between 28 nations at the same time, effectively 378 different sets of negotiations happening concurrently. Anyone who thinks that would be anywhere more efficient or beneficial than a single market governed by robust democratic principals cannot really be taken seriously.
  • Jints said:

    The DUP are opposed to a hard border between NI and GB. Nothing in the Times report suggests that one would be imposed so would have thought they would be happy with the deal.

    Aren’t the DUP opposed to any special arrangement for NI as opposed to the rest of the UK ? Don’t they see that as being tantamount to a United Ireland ? Or at least a move towards that happening.

    I can't pretend that I've been following all of their pronouncements but Foster's state the position below. I understand that they simply refuse (quite reasonably) to have a border with the UK. The proposals mentioned in the Times devolves responsibility on the NI Executive (if one can be formed) to make arrangements with ROI.


    "Her Majesty's Government have a clear understanding that the DUP will not countenance any arrangement that could lead to a new border being created in the Irish Sea.

    Indeed, the Prime Minister has been categorical on this matter in the House of Commons.

    We reiterated that United Kingdom-Republic of Ireland arrangements may be necessary as we exit the EU but there can be no arrangements agreed that compromise the integrity of the UK single market and place barriers, real or perceived, to the free movement of goods, services and capital between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom".

  • se9addick said:

    The DUP are going to be aaaangry....
    I like this proposal. It seems to me it means the UK remains almost a full member of the EU until 2021. It means the UK economy does not go over a cliff, UK buseinesses do not have to make panic large investment commitments that would cause severe damage to the UK economy for decades, and best of all, it gives the growing anti Brexit movement more time to mobilise and stop Brexit altogether.
    You may be right as the anti-Brexit elite is in control of most important parts of society.
    However, the transition period still means we leave the EU in March 2019-no more MEPs for example and exclusion from all the main bodies.
    At that stage it will need a campaign to rejoin to get back in.
  • Jints said:

    The DUP are opposed to a hard border between NI and GB. Nothing in the Times report suggests that one would be imposed so would have thought they would be happy with the deal.

    I think that's exactly what the Times article is saying. If there is harmonisation of customs etc across the island of Ireland but not with the UK mainland then there will have to be a border of sorts between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
  • McBobbin said:

    The latest immigration figured make interesting reading

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2017

    Net immigration is falling due to higher emigration and lower immigration, and has called over 100,000 in the last year. But, it is still 230,000 and is a drop from all time high figures. The devil is in the detail... Similar number of EU migrants who have a job, big drop in those looking for work. Be interesting if this is just an adjustment from all time high figures, or is part of a long term trend

    Only back to 2014 level - I read somewhere today.
    I believe that is correct. The question is whether the trend down will continue, for how long and how far... And also who the immigrants coming and going are etc.
  • se9addick said:

    Jints said:

    The DUP are opposed to a hard border between NI and GB. Nothing in the Times report suggests that one would be imposed so would have thought they would be happy with the deal.

    I think that's exactly what the Times article is saying. If there is harmonisation of customs etc across the island of Ireland but not with the UK mainland then there will have to be a border of sorts between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
    Yep you are right. A DUP MP is pretty much saying that

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  • McBobbin said:

    McBobbin said:

    The latest immigration figured make interesting reading

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2017

    Net immigration is falling due to higher emigration and lower immigration, and has called over 100,000 in the last year. But, it is still 230,000 and is a drop from all time high figures. The devil is in the detail... Similar number of EU migrants who have a job, big drop in those looking for work. Be interesting if this is just an adjustment from all time high figures, or is part of a long term trend

    Only back to 2014 level - I read somewhere today.
    I believe that is correct. The question is whether the trend down will continue, for how long and how far... And also who the immigrants coming and going are etc.
    The figures today show roughly the same amount of EU and Non-EU long term net immigration.
    We obviously have full control over non-EU immigration and the net figure I saw was 120,000, (and 110,000 from the EU.)

    So if the figures are correct, in the time since the referendum an EU citizen has decided to come to UK (long-term), about every 5 minutes.
    A country that is heading over the cliff of Brexit where there is almost zero unemployment and a supposedly "nasty" atmosphere towards foreigners.
  • McBobbin said:

    McBobbin said:

    The latest immigration figured make interesting reading

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2017

    Net immigration is falling due to higher emigration and lower immigration, and has called over 100,000 in the last year. But, it is still 230,000 and is a drop from all time high figures. The devil is in the detail... Similar number of EU migrants who have a job, big drop in those looking for work. Be interesting if this is just an adjustment from all time high figures, or is part of a long term trend

    Only back to 2014 level - I read somewhere today.
    I believe that is correct. The question is whether the trend down will continue, for how long and how far... And also who the immigrants coming and going are etc.
    The figures today show roughly the same amount of EU and Non-EU long term net immigration.
    We obviously have full control over non-EU immigration and the net figure I saw was 120,000, (and 110,000 from the EU.)

    So if the figures are correct, in the time since the referendum an EU citizen has decided to come to UK (long-term), about every 5 minutes.
    A country that is heading over the cliff of Brexit where there is almost zero unemployment and a supposedly "nasty" atmosphere towards foreigners.
    I guess things will become clear in the coming months and years. The weaker pound probably has a lot to do with it. Moving to another country is a big and complicated decision.
  • A few bits and pieces for those that are interested (was distressed to read the Brendan Simms piece linked by @stonemuse yesterday, but purely out of bitterness and spite, I used to meet him occasionally when we were both undergraduates, and he was back in Dublin).

    An article from the Financial Times, via the Irish Times, on why the argument that it can have no border controls won't work for the UK: https://irishtimes.com/opinion/talk-of-an-open-border-after-brexit-is-delusional-1.3307245.

    And, from the Irish Times, the related views of a German MEP: https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/eu-parliament-will-seek-to-protect-single-market-in-brexit-talks-german-mep-says-1.3307448.

    And, finally, an SNP view, from the Irish (but really Cork) Examiner: irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/tory-response-to-irish-position-on-brexit-based-on-out-dated-imperialistic-thinking-scottish-mp-816028.html.

    Just spoke to a pal of mine (a big remainer) and asked for his solution ideas for the NI/ROI question.

    He said, "Ireland is an Island, it's time we stopped trying to cling on to the past and let it go"
    I asked, "what about NI's previous contribution to UK taxes/infrastructure/military etc?"
    He said " Nth. Ire. costs the UK a chunk, and it's time to let it go"

    I didn't really have a response to that.
    Any thoughts?
    It makes logical sense, but is also madness - I'm sure that someone into these things would point out that it's probably the kind of solution that a psycopathic mind (in managerial terms) would recommend.

    It's about as likely that there could be a clean break from Northern Ireland as there could be a "Clean Brexit" that retains all the UK's current trading advantages.

    The problem for the UK is that it cannot simply wash its hands of Northern Ireland and walk away. If that was possible, it would have done it long ago.

    The formation of Northern Ireland was the direct result of a fairly obvious threat on the part of a significant element of Irish Unionism (as it then was) to spark civil war.

    Just as with the Dissident Republicans, the overall numbers of those Loyalists willing, at the moment, to engage in violence are probably fairly limited, but these sort of things have a habit of spiralling out of control fairly quickly.

    Loyalists have a very conditional loyalty to the state, and I would not wish to take for granted any outcome, but would be surprised if they would accept such a proposal.

    It may be worth pointing out that at least one poster (@cafcfan?) made very clear in advance of the Brexit referendum that Northern Ireland costs the UK an awful lot more than EU membership, without any of the financial benefits that are provided by EU membership - so that, on purely economic terms it makes far more sense for the UK to depart the island of Ireland than it does the EU.

    I very much doubt that there is any way to avoid chaos in exiting Ireland, particularly if the UK Government determined that it wanted to break up the UK to meet any current Brexit timescales.

    And, for what it's worth, I'm assuming that the decision-making and negotiations would not be being conducted by the current Brain's Trust (I certainly trust that they only have the one brain between them).
    Northern Ireland leaving the UK and rejoining the rest of the Island is an inevitability at this point. But it won't happen soon. The majority of the population of Great Britain care little for NI, which was evidenced in the reaction in the media to the DUP joining the Government, as well as how little thought NI and the border were given in the run up to Brexit. While giving up a part of the UK would hurt, and would be a financial burden for Ireland, it would be beneficial to the UK, NI and Ireland in the long run But there are too many entrenched Unionists still to this day, as you can see from every word that comes out of the DUP. That population is shrinking (as are the staunch republicans) but as it shrinks the remaining group hold on to their traditions tighter. It will happen eventually, and in many of our lifetimes, but it needs to happen naturally of its own accord, and only when the people of Northern Ireland want it.
    An independent Scotland would move this along massively as the Unionist community are far more closely tied to Scotland than to England and Wales both historically and culturally. If the rest of the Union is just England and Wales, Northern Ireland will be a little lost.
  • I spent an amount of time reading the Select Committee on Leaving the European Union's report on the negotiations with the EU: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmexeu/372/37202.htm.

    Whatever one's opinion, I would recommend reading it including where the votes taken on the wording are recorded (the Select Committee did split, with poor Sammy Wilson being on the losing side, I know I, for one, shed a tear).
  • Fiiish said:

    David Davis now threatening to resign over Damian Green scandal.

    Considering how pivotal his role is currently, the issue of Green stepping down amidst a fairly disgusting sleaze scandal seems very trivial.

    Looks very much like the flimiest pretext possible to washing his hands of this Brexit business because he realises how utterly impossible his job is and he doesn't want to forever be marked with the shitstain that is Brexit.

    I have to say my sympathies are with Damian Green and Davis here. The idea that a cabinet minister should lose his job because some judgemental prissy prig of an ex police officer thought he had the right to copy and keep confidential and legal information found on a computer during an investigation is outrageous. The ex policeman who made made those copies and made them public should be prosecuted with the full force of the law.
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  • Fiiish said:

    David Davis now threatening to resign over Damian Green scandal.

    Considering how pivotal his role is currently, the issue of Green stepping down amidst a fairly disgusting sleaze scandal seems very trivial.

    Looks very much like the flimiest pretext possible to washing his hands of this Brexit business because he realises how utterly impossible his job is and he doesn't want to forever be marked with the shitstain that is Brexit.

    I have to say my sympathies are with Damian Green and Davis here. The idea that a cabinet minister should lose his job because some judgemental prissy prig of an ex police officer thought he had the right to copy and keep confidential and legal information found on a computer during an investigation is outrageous. The ex policeman who made made those copies and made them public should be prosecuted with the full force of the law.
    I have some sympathy with this view but...... it’s not now only the fact that he has allegedly downloaded porn on his computer...so what. The problem now is that should it be proven that he has or at least beyond reasonable doubt, that he has then you must question the mans integrity in categorically denying it. I don’t believe you can have a Minister a proven liar.

  • Fiiish said:

    David Davis now threatening to resign over Damian Green scandal.

    Considering how pivotal his role is currently, the issue of Green stepping down amidst a fairly disgusting sleaze scandal seems very trivial.

    Looks very much like the flimiest pretext possible to washing his hands of this Brexit business because he realises how utterly impossible his job is and he doesn't want to forever be marked with the shitstain that is Brexit.

    I have to say my sympathies are with Damian Green and Davis here. The idea that a cabinet minister should lose his job because some judgemental prissy prig of an ex police officer thought he had the right to copy and keep confidential and legal information found on a computer during an investigation is outrageous. The ex policeman who made made those copies and made them public should be prosecuted with the full force of the law.
    I have some sympathy with this view but...... it’s not now only the fact that he has allegedly downloaded porn on his computer...so what. The problem now is that should it be proven that he has or at least beyond reasonable doubt, that he has then you must question the mans integrity in categorically denying it. I don’t believe you can have a Minister a proven liar.

    Disagree. He is the victim here. Even if he did download the images no law was broken and it is therefore a waste of police time trying to prove he did. He has stated he did not download the legal images. No law was broken and it is not the police's job to pursue the matter just to prove he is lying. They should drop the case immediately and prosecute the only criminal in this case, the ex police officer who made the copies and made them public.
    We don’t often agree on this thread, but on this occasion I totally agree.
  • True as that might be, Green's position is hardly tenable. Where else could you still keep your job regardless of how the incriminating evidence came to light?
  • Fiiish said:

    True as that might be, Green's position is hardly tenable. Where else could you still keep your job regardless of how the incriminating evidence came to light?

    First Minister in Northern Ireland is generally a good place to look, or, failing that, FIFA have exceptional standards of probity...
  • Fiiish said:

    True as that might be, Green's position is hardly tenable. Where else could you still keep your job regardless of how the incriminating evidence came to light?

    What incriminating evidence?
  • Fiiish said:

    David Davis now threatening to resign over Damian Green scandal.

    Considering how pivotal his role is currently, the issue of Green stepping down amidst a fairly disgusting sleaze scandal seems very trivial.

    Looks very much like the flimiest pretext possible to washing his hands of this Brexit business because he realises how utterly impossible his job is and he doesn't want to forever be marked with the shitstain that is Brexit.

    I have to say my sympathies are with Damian Green and Davis here. The idea that a cabinet minister should lose his job because some judgemental prissy prig of an ex police officer thought he had the right to copy and keep confidential and legal information found on a computer during an investigation is outrageous. The ex policeman who made made those copies and made them public should be prosecuted with the full force of the law.
    I have some sympathy with this view but...... it’s not now only the fact that he has allegedly downloaded porn on his computer...so what. The problem now is that should it be proven that he has or at least beyond reasonable doubt, that he has then you must question the mans integrity in categorically denying it. I don’t believe you can have a Minister a proven liar.

    Disagree. He is the victim here. Even if he did download the images no law was broken and it is therefore a waste of police time trying to prove he did. He has stated he did not download the legal images. No law was broken and it is not the police's job to pursue the matter just to prove he is lying. They should drop the case immediately and prosecute the only criminal in this case, the ex police officer who made the copies and made them public.
    I do agree. I really do. However. You can’t put a genie back in the bottle. The rights and wrongs of the spurious investigation notwithstanding, We now have information however acquired that shows that a senior minister has broken HOC rules. ( big deal) but importantly has vehemently denied the allegations. If those allegations are true he has to go. If he’s prepared to lie about that what else has he or would he be prepared to lie about.

    Yes he’s a victim but he’s also a minister where his character has to be unblemished in terms of his integrity.

  • Fiiish said:

    Fiiish said:

    True as that might be, Green's position is hardly tenable. Where else could you still keep your job regardless of how the incriminating evidence came to light?

    What incriminating evidence?
    Watching blue movies on a work laptop. Not a criminal offence but in any other line of work certainly a sackable offence.
    Even if it’s only a disciplinary offence. If it’s true and he has denied it. He has to go.

This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!