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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • Great post Chizz - I wish the Remain campaign would have used these strong economic (and common sense) arguments for immigration.

    Sadly so many people have an entrenched negative view of immigration despite its obvious benefits and are happy to just be fed misinformation and hysteria about it by the tabloid press.

    I think some people did - Brexiters just chose to ignore them and get their information from the side of a bus instead.

    Anyway - I am increasingly getting the idea that golfie and his reasons for desperately wanting to get out of the EU are tied in with his job and the EU's clamping down on shady offshore financial dealing. Or he would be coming back with something (anything?) to counter his ripped-to-shreds claims about immigration, among other things, surely?
  • edited July 2018
    I also think that more and more the only two options are:

    No deal - disaster for the economy and the nation.

    Reverse Brexit with some sort of referendum - disaster for democracy and the nation.


    On balance, I'd rather we just say bollocks to democracy, have another referendum (give 16 year olds the vote to guarantee it swings) and tell everyone that voted Brexit they are ignorant and misinformed and that this is proper democracy etc.

    It's through gritted teeth though.
  • Huskaris said:

    I also think that more and more the only two options are:

    No deal - disaster for the economy and the nation.

    Reverse Brexit with some sort of referendum - disaster for democracy and the nation.


    On balance, I'd rather we just aay bollocks to democracy, have another referendum (give 16 year olds the vote to guarantee it swings) and tell everyone that voted Brexit they are ignorant and misinformed and that this is proper democracy etc.

    It's through gritted teeth though.

    Impressed at the quality of your ventriloquism, almost perfect enunciation, getting the "l"s right was bloody good.

    I have a nasty feeling that, unless there is some dramatic change in Westminster, the UK will leave without any deal before any further vote could be arranged - but then, I've though that a no deal scenario was almost inevitable for quite a while. I'd like to be proved wrong, just as I'd like to be proved wrong in my belief that Brexit will be bad for the UK.
    Sorry. Typing on a phone and had just corrected the word "say"

    But then even a no deal is basically unworkable because of border issues.

    So what has to happen now is some mental gymnastics to undermine the referendum and democracy (which has already started) in order to save the economy and the country.

    I previously believed the referendum result should be respected, but I don't think any government, regardless of rosette could deliver a Brexit that Brexiters are happy with. They are going to be upset anyway, might as well have an outcome that 48% of the population are happy with (arguably more now, arguably less).

    This is the problem though, the appetite for calling it all off is now higher than ever I would say, but so is the appetite for sticking two fingers up and going full Brexit.

    Things are becoming more polarised not less..
  • Huskaris said:

    I also think that more and more the only two options are:

    No deal - disaster for the economy and the nation.

    Reverse Brexit with some sort of referendum - disaster for democracy and the nation.


    On balance, I'd rather we just aay bollocks to democracy, have another referendum (give 16 year olds the vote to guarantee it swings) and tell everyone that voted Brexit they are ignorant and misinformed and that this is proper democracy etc.

    It's through gritted teeth though.

    Impressed at the quality of your ventriloquism, almost perfect enunciation, getting the "l"s right was bloody good.

    I have a nasty feeling that, unless there is some dramatic change in Westminster, the UK will leave without any deal before any further vote could be arranged - but then, I've though that a no deal scenario was almost inevitable for quite a while. I'd like to be proved wrong, just as I'd like to be proved wrong in my belief that Brexit will be bad for the UK.
    I took some comfort watching last night's Newsnight. Dominic Greive was on and he suggested that a no Deal Brexit simply would not happen because there are enough sane people in Parliament who know what a catastrophe it would be for the country and so would bring the government down.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1019340425138565121/video/1
  • edited July 2018
    bobmunro said:

    se9addick said:

    The problem now is that both sides of the conservative party are joining their battle lines. May scraped through a vote yesterday thanks to a few Labour MPs. She has to now negotiate a minefield every day! What she has been told by a number of Tories who supported her yesterday is that they will not allow a hard Brexit. A Hard Brexit is not achievable with the numbers as they are. Remainers should be happy.

    But of course this can't end well. Whatever happens nobody is going to be happy. We need another referendum - I don't know what the outcome of it will be, but it needs to be correctly worded to instruct politicians. At least then nobody can argue and hopefully get together to make the best of whatever we do! The country needs it - Anybody who can't see that hasn't been paying attention.

    I can’t see it, I am paying attention.

    I found nothing to celebrate from yesterday’s votes other than our continued membership of the EMA. Having continued membership of the Customs Union whilst we continue to negotiate in the event of no deal seems logical to me, but as I’ve said logic seems to have gone out the window.

    I actually think a no deal “hard” Brexit is by far the most likely outcome now.
    This is where I am with it all too tbh.

    There was a massive trade deal signed yesterday which will benefit EU members hugely. It merited two lines on the news and as far as I can see none of the Leavers on here responded to the news. In little over half a year or so we will be walking away from that benefit on the premise that somehow we can get a better deal on our own.

    It's an utterly illogical position but people don't seem to care. Whatever is driving their views it isn't the economic well being of the UK imo and as long as that continues there will be enough public support for a no deal, cliff edge Brexit and that is where we are heading.
    Japanese car exports to the EU will see the current 10% tariffs reduce to zero over the next 8 years. Japanese cars made in the UK and exported to the EU will continue to carry the 10% tariff if a hard Brexit materialises.

    Good news for Swindon, Cowley, Sunderland and Burnaston.

    If eventually the Japanese car manufacturers are selling more cars in the 27 than in the UK which is a given. They will switch production to one of the lower cost EU member states.

    Therefore reducing the price of its product to twenty seven countries by 10% at a stroke.



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  • bobmunro said:

    se9addick said:

    The problem now is that both sides of the conservative party are joining their battle lines. May scraped through a vote yesterday thanks to a few Labour MPs. She has to now negotiate a minefield every day! What she has been told by a number of Tories who supported her yesterday is that they will not allow a hard Brexit. A Hard Brexit is not achievable with the numbers as they are. Remainers should be happy.

    But of course this can't end well. Whatever happens nobody is going to be happy. We need another referendum - I don't know what the outcome of it will be, but it needs to be correctly worded to instruct politicians. At least then nobody can argue and hopefully get together to make the best of whatever we do! The country needs it - Anybody who can't see that hasn't been paying attention.

    I can’t see it, I am paying attention.

    I found nothing to celebrate from yesterday’s votes other than our continued membership of the EMA. Having continued membership of the Customs Union whilst we continue to negotiate in the event of no deal seems logical to me, but as I’ve said logic seems to have gone out the window.

    I actually think a no deal “hard” Brexit is by far the most likely outcome now.
    This is where I am with it all too tbh.

    There was a massive trade deal signed yesterday which will benefit EU members hugely. It merited two lines on the news and as far as I can see none of the Leavers on here responded to the news. In little over half a year or so we will be walking away from that benefit on the premise that somehow we can get a better deal on our own.

    It's an utterly illogical position but people don't seem to care. Whatever is driving their views it isn't the economic well being of the UK imo and as long as that continues there will be enough public support for a no deal, cliff edge Brexit and that is where we are heading.
    Japanese car exports to the EU will see the current 10% tariffs reduce to zero over the next 8 years. Japanese cars made in the UK and exported to the EU will continue to carry the 10% tariff if a hard Brexit materialises.

    Good news for Swindon, Cowley, Sunderland and Burnaston.

    If eventually the Japanese car manufacturers are selling more cars in the 27 than in the UK which is a given. They will switch production to one of the lower cost EU member states.

    Therefore reducing the price of its product to twenty seven countries by 10% at a stroke.



    Precisely.

    I was being facetious when I said 'Good news' :)
  • Superb post @Chizz.

    You can add to the list the road haulage industry. If all the migrant drivers currently driving lorries in this country were to leave then the goods being transported around the country will effectively stop.
  • Huskaris said:

    I also think that more and more the only two options are:

    No deal - disaster for the economy and the nation.

    Reverse Brexit with some sort of referendum - disaster for democracy and the nation.


    On balance, I'd rather we just say bollocks to democracy, have another referendum (give 16 year olds the vote to guarantee it swings) and tell everyone that voted Brexit they are ignorant and misinformed and that this is proper democracy etc.

    It's through gritted teeth though.

    You have used the word democracy a few times there.......
  • It's not undermining democracy though. As many of have been saying since day one, democracy is a process, not a single event. It would be undemocratic to take a single vote and stick with it despite the changing environment and the changes wishes of the electorate. We don't have a general election and then that party gets to stay in for ever, and we don't call the next election "going against the will of the people", so I just don't understand why any future votes on the EU could possibly be deemed undemocratic. It is a con, propagated from those who don't want the electorate to change its mind, that are invested (financially, politically or emotionally) to that single result in that single moment in time.

    If those shouting "will of the people" the loudest actually believed in that concept then they would welcome the people being able to express their will.

    I disagree, it is a complete democratic fudge. It is absolutely necessary though. Either that or not bothering with a second referendum at all as it is just "advisory"

    Your argument above about not taking a single vote, and representing a changing environment etc is actually an argument for why having the 2016 referendum was correct, as it's different to what people voted for in the 1970s.

    General elections are very different from referendums too. A manifesto is very different from yes/no.

    I actually think the best way to get round it (as a second referendum so soon after the first will be hard to get away with on the "democracy" line, when leavers had to wait 31 years from 1975, is through a general election.

    Get rid of May, bring in (someone like) Soubry, I think Corbyn would probably have to go as he is a leaver in all but name, get (someone like) Ummuna in. Both run on a manifesto of overturning referendum. Farage comes back to UKIP and loses the election obviously.
  • edited July 2018
    But they don't. What we have now is a scenario that if we don't have a Brexit, we will have millions of angry bitter people. If we do, we will have some Brexiters not being happy with the terms and using it as an excuse why the economy is suffering and the anger of millions of remainers for stitching the country up. We have to have another referendum because it gives us a chance to fix this mess. Not a guarantee, but possibly our best chance. And after the referendum nobody can complain about democracy from either side.
  • Two of the major Brexiteers have Brazilian wives (origin not style choices). How did they, sundry Yanks, South Africans, Argie polo guys, Aussies, Kiwis, Russians, Japanese and others get immigrant status? On top of Middle East refugees here due to us bombing their country flat. At least the EU workers have a right to be here. Those above don't.

    How did you come to The conclusion that those people have no right to be in England? Would you say the same about @seth plum s wife?

    Do you have any idea how hard the process is to move to The UK, the hoops you have to go to in order to prove you will be a benefit to the nation? That's before you even consider The c.20k it's going to cost, without ever being sure it will be a success.

    My wife is a Fantastic teacher, she got her qualifications in The US and is a fluent English speaker, with The UKs lack of teachers, the perfect immigrant, some might say, but you think because she's Chinese, not European, she has no right to be in the UK? Ridiculous.
    Hmm. Well I don't know if we are talking equivalents but here is the situation re my brother. He is a rabid (and I choose the word carefully) Brexiteer. He has married a Brazilian lady. (something my sister and I find hilariously ironic, given the anti-immigrant shit he comes out with). In order to get married he certainly had to do a lot of paperwork, but the max he paid was 3k I believe. When he met her she was child-minding, and she has no professional qualifications we are aware of. Her family in Brazil are of an agricultural background.She seems like a very nice person, but we can't see that she is of any benefit to the nation, beyond being a calming influence on my brother. The Polish family next door to my sister on the other hand..the guy works in IT, successful enough to afford a mortgage on a 500k house, two kids who will grow up here, and hopefully all will want to stay, certainly with that mortgage they have made the commitment.

    The above does not mean I disagree with your post, Stu. I greatly sympathise with the frustration you have re your wife. I guess I am saying that our approach to immigration, both government and people, is confused and haphazard.

  • se9addick said:

    As I mentioned yesterday I feel like there needs to be a progressive voice in this country that is able to articulate that immigration is a good thing.

    If we know that immigrants are a net economic contributor then the fact that public services are stretched (and they are) must be because we are not spending the additional tax revenue generated by our larger population efficiently. No government would admit that of course, because it is much easier to blame immigrants than to admit that you aren’t collecting and spending taxes properly. So they peddle the line that immigration is bad and lots of people will accept that immigrants are to blame for overcrowded hospitals/schools/housing because “more people = overcrowding” sounds logical, but it doesn’t hold up to any sort of scrutiny.

    The average bigot doesn't really do scrutiny - racism is generally the refuge of the stupid and the ignorant. A large part of the selling of Brexit was in its appeal to those who want a return to the past when Britain ruled the waves and everyone was in awe of us - reality doesn't really enter into it. Some are in favour of Brexit regardless of the consequences just to piss the 'elite' off - seems to mirror the Trump vote.

    There won't be a grown up debate on this as it seems have to descended into a them against us division. Posturing idiots such as Bojo, Farage and Rees-Mogg are just playing a game and don't give a ?uck about the outcome.

    If we are to leave Europe we're ?ucked unless our politicians stop playing games.
  • se9addick said:

    As I mentioned yesterday I feel like there needs to be a progressive voice in this country that is able to articulate that immigration is a good thing.

    If we know that immigrants are a net economic contributor then the fact that public services are stretched (and they are) must be because we are not spending the additional tax revenue generated by our larger population efficiently. No government would admit that of course, because it is much easier to blame immigrants than to admit that you aren’t collecting and spending taxes properly. So they peddle the line that immigration is bad and lots of people will accept that immigrants are to blame for overcrowded hospitals/schools/housing because “more people = overcrowding” sounds logical, but it doesn’t hold up to any sort of scrutiny.

    The average bigot doesn't really do scrutiny - racism is generally the refuge of the stupid and the ignorant. A large part of the selling of Brexit was in its appeal to those who want a return to the past when Britain ruled the waves and everyone was in awe of us - reality doesn't really enter into it. Some are in favour of Brexit regardless of the consequences just to piss the 'elite' off - seems to mirror the Trump vote.

    There won't be a grown up debate on this as it seems have to descended into a them against us division. Posturing idiots such as Bojo, Farage and Rees-Mogg are just playing a game and don't give a ?uck about the outcome.

    If we are to leave Europe we're ?ucked unless our politicians stop playing games.
    But I don’t necessarily think people who believe that immigrants are the reason our public services are under great pressure are racists or bigots, they are just believing a message that has been reinforced by successive governments and is currently supported by both main parties. Someone needs to present the contrary message that, infact, struggling public services and infrastructure isn’t really anything to do with the number of immigrants in this country and immigrants are just being used as convenient bogeymen as countless other demographics have been blamed for the ills of a nation through history.
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  • se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    As I mentioned yesterday I feel like there needs to be a progressive voice in this country that is able to articulate that immigration is a good thing.

    If we know that immigrants are a net economic contributor then the fact that public services are stretched (and they are) must be because we are not spending the additional tax revenue generated by our larger population efficiently. No government would admit that of course, because it is much easier to blame immigrants than to admit that you aren’t collecting and spending taxes properly. So they peddle the line that immigration is bad and lots of people will accept that immigrants are to blame for overcrowded hospitals/schools/housing because “more people = overcrowding” sounds logical, but it doesn’t hold up to any sort of scrutiny.

    The average bigot doesn't really do scrutiny - racism is generally the refuge of the stupid and the ignorant. A large part of the selling of Brexit was in its appeal to those who want a return to the past when Britain ruled the waves and everyone was in awe of us - reality doesn't really enter into it. Some are in favour of Brexit regardless of the consequences just to piss the 'elite' off - seems to mirror the Trump vote.

    There won't be a grown up debate on this as it seems have to descended into a them against us division. Posturing idiots such as Bojo, Farage and Rees-Mogg are just playing a game and don't give a ?uck about the outcome.

    If we are to leave Europe we're ?ucked unless our politicians stop playing games.
    But I don’t necessarily think people who believe that immigrants are the reason our public services are under great pressure are racists or bigots, they are just believing a message that has been reinforced by successive governments and is currently supported by both main parties. Someone needs to present the contrary message that, infact, struggling public services and infrastructure isn’t really anything to do with the number of immigrants in this country and immigrants are just being used as convenient bogeymen as countless other demographics have been blamed for the ills of a nation through history.
    There has been some reasoned debate on immigration and some is just poor bigotry - I've heard plenty of people express some pretty nasty views. It's a choice to some extent to only see the negative side of immigration if it supports your views.

    Some people don't want to listen - they only want to see the problems associated with immigration.
  • Two of the major Brexiteers have Brazilian wives (origin not style choices). How did they, sundry Yanks, South Africans, Argie polo guys, Aussies, Kiwis, Russians, Japanese and others get immigrant status? On top of Middle East refugees here due to us bombing their country flat. At least the EU workers have a right to be here. Those above don't.

    How did you come to The conclusion that those people have no right to be in England? Would you say the same about @seth plum s wife?

    Do you have any idea how hard the process is to move to The UK, the hoops you have to go to in order to prove you will be a benefit to the nation? That's before you even consider The c.20k it's going to cost, without ever being sure it will be a success.

    My wife is a Fantastic teacher, she got her qualifications in The US and is a fluent English speaker, with The UKs lack of teachers, the perfect immigrant, some might say, but you think because she's Chinese, not European, she has no right to be in the UK? Ridiculous.
    Hmm. Well I don't know if we are talking equivalents but here is the situation re my brother. He is a rabid (and I choose the word carefully) Brexiteer. He has married a Brazilian lady. (something my sister and I find hilariously ironic, given the anti-immigrant shit he comes out with). In order to get married he certainly had to do a lot of paperwork, but the max he paid was 3k I believe. When he met her she was child-minding, and she has no professional qualifications we are aware of. Her family in Brazil are of an agricultural background. She seems like a very nice person, but we can't see that she is of any benefit to the nation, beyond being a calming influence on my brother. The Polish family next door to my sister on the other hand..the guy works in IT, successful enough to afford a mortgage on a 500k house, two kids who will grow up here, and hopefully all will want to stay, certainly with that mortgage they have made the commitment.

    The above does not mean I disagree with your post, Stu. I greatly sympathise with the frustration you have re your wife. I guess I am saying that our approach to immigration, both government and people, is confused and haphazard.

    Just to be clear, there is little to no personal frustration from me, I'm far happier here than I would be at home, I'm in no rush to move back, until my child is ready for Primary school, I'd imagine, as I disagree with far too much of the education system here, but I have one friend who flies home, with his family, on the 24th of July, for good and another who is in the middle of the ordeal right now. I know from their experience, it's a bloody expensive nightmare. Could the difference she already lived in the UK when they got married? Obviously, my two friends both got married here, with their wives having never lived in the UK!

    Getting married here is actually relatively easy, we only needed one trip to the British Consulate in Chongqing to fill out some pretty straightforward paperwork, although, they did manage to f that up by putting my DOB as 10th September 20018, I'm from the future, dontchaknow!



  • Greece is bankrupt. If they opened up to unlimited immigration they would be rolling in money pretty soon.
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