No membership of The Customs Union or The Single Market yet the government are till saying we want comprehensive access to the single market and a frictionless border.
It’s just nonsensical and is not possible and Barnier has said as much. Do May and Davis still actually believe in this mantra or are they just deluded ?
I’m not sure which one I find most worrying.
As I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more.
The political class desperately wants to REMAIN and in my opinion are deliberately trying to mess things up. The consequence of that will be either that we will never actually LEAVE at all or we will leave but go crawling back to the 'Heseltine' scenario of entering the Euro and full integration as a condition of being let back in. You can bet your sweet ass (sorry @Curb_It ) that we won't get a referendum on that!
The only reason some Tories purport to want to leave with a 'hard Brexit' is that they think they can make a swift buck out of it via their business connections. They have no interest in the country or democracy.
You don't have to be mensa material to realise that 45 years of 'ever closer union' economic and political union under another name cannot be unravelled 'at a stroke.'
The only way to genuinely leave the EU politically without creating economic armageddon is via the interim step of EFTA.
Stephen Kinnock is the only politician that I know of honest enough to accept and promote that. A cynic might say that's because he knows it won't happen but, whilst I am not naturally inclined towards Labour primarily because of the hypocrisy endemic within it, I do think Kinnock genuinely respects the democratically expressed wish of the people and is seeking to deliver it.
Shame about the rest of the freeloading bastards.
You are deluding yourself if you seriously believe it is only the political class that want to remain. All recent opinion polls show at least 50% of the UK population want to remain.
No membership of The Customs Union or The Single Market yet the government are till saying we want comprehensive access to the single market and a frictionless border.
It’s just nonsensical and is not possible and Barnier has said as much. Do May and Davis still actually believe in this mantra or are they just deluded ?
I’m not sure which one I find most worrying.
As I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more.
The political class desperately wants to REMAIN and in my opinion are deliberately trying to mess things up. The consequence of that will be either that we will never actually LEAVE at all or we will leave but go crawling back to the 'Heseltine' scenario of entering the Euro and full integration as a condition of being let back in. You can bet your sweet ass (sorry @Curb_It ) that we won't get a referendum on that!
The only reason some Tories purport to want to leave with a 'hard Brexit' is that they think they can make a swift buck out of it via their business connections. They have no interest in the country or democracy.
You don't have to be mensa material to realise that 45 years of 'ever closer union' economic and political union under another name cannot be unravelled 'at a stroke.'
The only way to genuinely leave the EU politically without creating economic armageddon is via the interim step of EFTA.
Stephen Kinnock is the only politician that I know of honest enough to accept and promote that. A cynic might say that's because he knows it won't happen but, whilst I am not naturally inclined towards Labour primarily because of the hypocrisy endemic within it, I do think Kinnock genuinely respects the democratically expressed wish of the people and is seeking to deliver it.
Shame about the rest of the freeloading bastards.
You are deluding yourself if you seriously believe it is only the political class that want to remain. All recent opinion polls show at least 50% of the UK population want to remain.
I don't think Len said it was 'only' the political class.
No membership of The Customs Union or The Single Market yet the government are till saying we want comprehensive access to the single market and a frictionless border.
It’s just nonsensical and is not possible and Barnier has said as much. Do May and Davis still actually believe in this mantra or are they just deluded ?
I’m not sure which one I find most worrying.
As I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more.
The political class desperately wants to REMAIN and in my opinion are deliberately trying to mess things up. The consequence of that will be either that we will never actually LEAVE at all or we will leave but go crawling back to the 'Heseltine' scenario of entering the Euro and full integration as a condition of being let back in. You can bet your sweet ass (sorry @Curb_It ) that we won't get a referendum on that!
The only reason some Tories purport to want to leave with a 'hard Brexit' is that they think they can make a swift buck out of it via their business connections. They have no interest in the country or democracy.
You don't have to be mensa material to realise that 45 years of 'ever closer union' economic and political union under another name cannot be unravelled 'at a stroke.'
The only way to genuinely leave the EU politically without creating economic armageddon is via the interim step of EFTA.
Stephen Kinnock is the only politician that I know of honest enough to accept and promote that. A cynic might say that's because he knows it won't happen but, whilst I am not naturally inclined towards Labour primarily because of the hypocrisy endemic within it, I do think Kinnock genuinely respects the democratically expressed wish of the people and is seeking to deliver it.
@Chippycafc enough is enough mate. I can’t see how any of what you’ve been posting over the last few pages as constructive and contributing to the wider debate. I get that this thread is now probably largely constituent of remainers talking about how much of a car crash brexit is or is going to be. And I’ve tried to balance this given that I voted remain and I don’t want to be seen as favouring remainers, but if you take someone like southbank or stonemuse, they come on here and argue their points and it doesn’t descend into some sort of detritus and brandishing terms like traitor. I just think it’s gone too far mate.
I appreciate you might feel you get provoked and I’ve honestly tried to hold off on mentioning anything up until now, but it’s just getting a little tedious now. It’s not just you, I know some of the points from some of the prominent remainers can be considered a little too provocative as well, and I know brexiters might feel like they’re in the minority here, but we’ve got to think about the wider enjoyment of the forum for all. This is just turning into a bit of a shambles now
It’s nothing personal, just don’t think much of what you’ve given the thread over the last few pages is what we want this place to be about
Agreed mate.....hopefully the classy and hounerable also take heed.
This is all very entertaining stuff as highlighted by @cobbles and perhaps it's symptomatic of the real tension building within the Government and the Conservative Party. For if we make the quite rational assumption that the combined economic expertise of the civil service has indeed predicted various degrees of lost GDP over the next 15 years (depending upon the Canada / Norway scenarios) then the Cabinet really are in a difficult place.
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
I know they are experts in their field and therefore cannot be trusted to know what they are doing but if we take them at their word is it worth, hypothetically, benefiting consumers whilst also, again hypothetically, destroying lower-tech manufacturing?
This is all very entertaining stuff as highlighted by @cobbles and perhaps it's symptomatic of the real tension building within the Government and the Conservative Party. For if we make the quite rational assumption that the combined economic expertise of the civil service has indeed predicted various degrees of lost GDP over the next 15 years (depending upon the Canada / Norway scenarios) then the Cabinet really are in a difficult place.
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
Its difficult to see how a Norway type agreement would be acceptable as the Norwegians are part of the Schengen free movement area and have to pay more per. capita than the U.K. to have access to the single market.
This is all very entertaining stuff as highlighted by @cobbles and perhaps it's symptomatic of the real tension building within the Government and the Conservative Party. For if we make the quite rational assumption that the combined economic expertise of the civil service has indeed predicted various degrees of lost GDP over the next 15 years (depending upon the Canada / Norway scenarios) then the Cabinet really are in a difficult place.
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
Its difficult to see how a Norway type agreement would be acceptable as the Norwegians are part of the Schengen free movement area and have to pay more per. capita than the U.K. to have access to the single market.
Makes you wonder why Farage, Hannan, Gove, Boris etc. went around promising a Norway-style deal.
This is all very entertaining stuff as highlighted by @cobbles and perhaps it's symptomatic of the real tension building within the Government and the Conservative Party. For if we make the quite rational assumption that the combined economic expertise of the civil service has indeed predicted various degrees of lost GDP over the next 15 years (depending upon the Canada / Norway scenarios) then the Cabinet really are in a difficult place.
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
Its difficult to see how a Norway type agreement would be acceptable as the Norwegians are part of the Schengen free movement area and have to pay more per. capita than the U.K. to have access to the single market.
Makes you wonder why Farage, Hannan, Gove, Boris etc. went around promising a Norway-style deal.
The vision of Brexit at any cost that is now being sold by these chancers and anyone not on board is a traitor, isn't anything like what the majority bought in to two years ago
This is all very entertaining stuff as highlighted by @cobbles and perhaps it's symptomatic of the real tension building within the Government and the Conservative Party. For if we make the quite rational assumption that the combined economic expertise of the civil service has indeed predicted various degrees of lost GDP over the next 15 years (depending upon the Canada / Norway scenarios) then the Cabinet really are in a difficult place.
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
Its difficult to see how a Norway type agreement would be acceptable as the Norwegians are part of the Schengen free movement area and have to pay more per. capita than the U.K. to have access to the single market.
Makes you wonder why Farage, Hannan, Gove, Boris etc. went around promising a Norway-style deal.
The vision of Brexit at any cost that is now being sold by these chancers and anyone not on board is a traitor, isn't anything like what the majority bought in to two years ago
It's quite funny*, Vote Leave have been removing pledges and promises from their website as they are abandoned by leading Brexiters. There was a section on why Norway and Switzerland has a great deal that has mysteriously disappeared.
Can you imagine if a political party broke several key manifesto promises and edited their website to make it look they never promised them in the first place? It's very reminiscent of the Soviet rewriting of history to suit their agenda.
* and by funny I mean completely fraudulent and further evidence of a campaign that won on a platform of lies knowing electoral law did not apply to the advisory non-binding referendum.
No membership of The Customs Union or The Single Market yet the government are till saying we want comprehensive access to the single market and a frictionless border.
It’s just nonsensical and is not possible and Barnier has said as much. Do May and Davis still actually believe in this mantra or are they just deluded ?
I’m not sure which one I find most worrying.
As I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more.
The political class desperately wants to REMAIN and in my opinion are deliberately trying to mess things up. The consequence of that will be either that we will never actually LEAVE at all or we will leave but go crawling back to the 'Heseltine' scenario of entering the Euro and full integration as a condition of being let back in. You can bet your sweet ass (sorry @Curb_It ) that we won't get a referendum on that!
The only reason some Tories purport to want to leave with a 'hard Brexit' is that they think they can make a swift buck out of it via their business connections. They have no interest in the country or democracy.
You don't have to be mensa material to realise that 45 years of 'ever closer union' economic and political union under another name cannot be unravelled 'at a stroke.'
The only way to genuinely leave the EU politically without creating economic armageddon is via the interim step of EFTA.
Stephen Kinnock is the only politician that I know of honest enough to accept and promote that. A cynic might say that's because he knows it won't happen but, whilst I am not naturally inclined towards Labour primarily because of the hypocrisy endemic within it, I do think Kinnock genuinely respects the democratically expressed wish of the people and is seeking to deliver it.
Shame about the rest of the freeloading bastards.
It is debatable whether EFTA would allow itself be used as some kind of temporary home, to the extent that its members might refuse to agree UK membership if that was the intention.
The real benefit of EFTA membership would be that it would allow membership of the EEA, but, again, there is the problem of persuading its signatories to allow the UK some form of temporary arrangement.
And Stephen Kinnock, with his background, should know that achieving a temporary membership of EFTA and the EEA is fraught with difficulties.
No membership of The Customs Union or The Single Market yet the government are till saying we want comprehensive access to the single market and a frictionless border.
It’s just nonsensical and is not possible and Barnier has said as much. Do May and Davis still actually believe in this mantra or are they just deluded ?
I’m not sure which one I find most worrying.
As I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more.
The political class desperately wants to REMAIN and in my opinion are deliberately trying to mess things up. The consequence of that will be either that we will never actually LEAVE at all or we will leave but go crawling back to the 'Heseltine' scenario of entering the Euro and full integration as a condition of being let back in. You can bet your sweet ass (sorry @Curb_It ) that we won't get a referendum on that!
The only reason some Tories purport to want to leave with a 'hard Brexit' is that they think they can make a swift buck out of it via their business connections. They have no interest in the country or democracy.
You don't have to be mensa material to realise that 45 years of 'ever closer union' economic and political union under another name cannot be unravelled 'at a stroke.'
The only way to genuinely leave the EU politically without creating economic armageddon is via the interim step of EFTA.
Stephen Kinnock is the only politician that I know of honest enough to accept and promote that. A cynic might say that's because he knows it won't happen but, whilst I am not naturally inclined towards Labour primarily because of the hypocrisy endemic within it, I do think Kinnock genuinely respects the democratically expressed wish of the people and is seeking to deliver it.
Shame about the rest of the freeloading bastards.
It is debatable whether EFTA would allow itself be used as some kind of temporary home, to the extent that its members might refuse to agree UK membership if that was the intention.
The real benefit of EFTA membership would be that it would allow membership of the EEA, but, again, there is the problem of persuading its signatories to allow the UK some form of temporary arrangement.
And Stephen Kinnock, with his background, should know that achieving a temporary membership of EFTA and the EEA is fraught with difficulties.
Agreed. It's not like a gym membership where you can sign up whilst looking for a better deal. It is underpinned by certain principles that countries need to prove they will uphold in the long term, otherwise the whole institution will lack integrity and gravitas.
And I imagine the EFTA members will look on at our leading Brexit politicians, who change their mind like the weather and have no regard for principles or pragmatism whatsoever, and judge them accordingly.
Not as sorry as I am @LenGlover Just for the sake of not putting in one letter in a word, correctly, I am now getting notified every time someone quotes your post. I had about 4,000 unread posts on this thread!
Not as sorry as I am @LenGlover For just for the sake of not putting in one letter in a word, correctly, I am now getting notified every time someone quotes your post. I had about 4,000 unread posts on this thread!
This is all very entertaining stuff as highlighted by @cobbles and perhaps it's symptomatic of the real tension building within the Government and the Conservative Party. For if we make the quite rational assumption that the combined economic expertise of the civil service has indeed predicted various degrees of lost GDP over the next 15 years (depending upon the Canada / Norway scenarios) then the Cabinet really are in a difficult place.
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
Its difficult to see how a Norway type agreement would be acceptable as the Norwegians are part of the Schengen free movement area and have to pay more per. capita than the U.K. to have access to the single market.
Makes you wonder why Farage, Hannan, Gove, Boris etc. went around promising a Norway-style deal.
It's almost as if people like Farage, Hannan, Johnson, and others seem not to have been telling all of the truth.
Unfortunately a Norway style deal is the best we can hope for unless we decide not to leave at all. Memories are definitely selective as many prominent leavers who were suggesting a Norway style deal as a viable Brexit option seem to have changed their tune. Indeed, many of the same people are telling us the voters did not vote for this type of Brexit even though they seemed to support it as an option when it suited them.
I wonder if the official forecasts which were released today which show all of the UK being negatively impacted financially, areas that voted leave especially, will act as a wakeup call for some. Not the Brexiteers that post here, I literally don't think there's any sort of analysis that could change their minds, but maybe some that are closer to the fence might start to realise that a Brexit that doesn't deliver full single market access is going to be very damaging?
I wonder if the official forecasts which were released today which show all of the UK being negatively impacted financially, areas that voted leave especially, will act as a wakeup call for some. Not the Brexiteers that post here, I literally don't think there's any sort of analysis that could change their minds, but maybe some that are closer to the fence might start to realise that a Brexit that doesn't deliver full single market access is going to be very damaging?
Not as sorry as I am @LenGlover Just for the sake of not putting in one letter in a word, correctly, I am now getting notified every time someone quotes your post. I had about 4,000 unread posts on this thread!
From the start of all this I said I would bang on about the Irish border ad infiboredom. To me it encompasses all that is brexit. It is about control of borders, but also about UK/EU citizens status. The sheer practicalities and attendant costs. The willingness of the UK to honour an International Treaty. The politics of it all, surprisingly increased in strength by the Tory deal with the DUP. The notion that brexiters knew what they were voting for, and the lack of practical solutions to brexit that the brexiters can muster. The idea of free trade verses tariffs...probably a host of other things as well. So far no brexiters have suggested a practical solution to the Irish border.
There are a number of stories in the news today (for those occasions when I can tear myself away from checking the takeover thread every 30 seconds), that are, I believe a cause for worry.
There seems to be a lot less common ground between the UK and EU27 than might have been expected following the agreement on sufficient progress.
The Irish Times (republishing a Financial Times article), highlights something which does not provide much comfort to those of us who would hope for minimal economic disruption beyond March 2019 (it very much looks as if the UK's position regarding international trade agreements is going to be uncertain for some time): https://irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/britain-to-world-please-pretend-we-are-not-leaving-eu-1.3386401.
Frankly, I'm very concerned. At a time when, should anyone wish to achieve both acceptable Withdrawal and Free Trade agreements that will benefit both sides, when the UK and EU27 should have a significant degree of clarity on what both sides want, and be moving together towards some kind of compromise, the actual position appears to be going in the other direction.
Don't get me wrong, I have always believed that the UK's stated position on what a post-Brexit relationship would be to be impossibly contradictory and unrealistic - but, I have held on to the slender hope that I might be proved wrong.
The words of David Davies this week, berating the EU27 position, have not gone down well, as far as I can see, in the EU27 - and there were comments along the lines of pot and kettle, given the almost immediate repudiation by Mr Davies of what the Phase 1 sufficient progress agreement amounted to. I'm really not a conspiracy theorist, but I am beginning to onder whether his intent is to have no agreement with the EU27 and have what is often described as a disorderly Brexit.
I have a feeling that my sense of dread will increase dramatically.
I have given less consideration for effectively a United Ireland as a result of brexit. One because I can't see the powers that be accepting a break up of the UK with knock on for Scotland, but as a sweeping uncomplicated solution to the border problem it has appeal. Except of course the Tories now depend on the DUP to sustain power. Maybe the choice is either a United Ireland or no brexit at all.
I have given less consideration for effectively a United Ireland as a result of brexit. One because I can't see the powers that be accepting a break up of the UK with knock on for Scotland, but as a sweeping uncomplicated solution to the border problem it has appeal. Except of course the Tories now depend on the DUP to sustain power. Maybe the choice is either a United Ireland or no brexit at all.
The DUP won’t countenance any deviation on the NI/ROI border than to any other border the U.K. has post Brexit. That will be a red line. No idea how it will be resolved and more worryingly nor does the government.
Comments
No wonder Rees Mogg is stirring up against said civil servants, and no wonder that the most strong minded hard Brexit supporters are going over the top. I don't play Twitter nor Facebook so I'm not aware of what's going down on social media. We can be sure that the comments posted on The Daily Telegraph articles are full of in depth analysis of how to deliver Brexit - Not!
Centre stage, May is coming under a lot of pressure to actually lead the Cabinet and put a position together. One that doesn't feature unicorns as that won't fly anymore. That members of the Brexiteer fringe think nothing of traducing the civil service suggests that May has an historic decision to make. She is still blathering on about a deep and special relationship but without being in the single market or customs union and not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. It's all meaningless rhethoric.
And if she caves to these loons then my theory posted here for the best part of a year is that remain Tories might well walk away and buddy up to Corbyn and McDonnell! Not to stop Brexit for that is just a pivot being leveraged by the alt-right. No, they will cross the floor in defence of our Parliamentary democracy, our civil service and our judiciary. Take back control if you will! Last night Anna Soubry has spelt out this position on Newsnight and this has been widely reported today. The question is how many Tory remain MPs will threaten to follow her line?
May and her cabinet will know full well how the numbers stack up - for both the economy and their party. It they get this wrong then we could have an election sooner than we think. It all comes down to a simple choice Norway or Canada. Nobody voted for Canada as it wasn't on the ballot paper. When the economic models go public, it would be somewhat bizarre if the Government chose the one which hammers GDP and tax revenues the hardest. As @LenGlover states, EFTA is the answer. And we can expect certain non-Euro nations might also join over time for the EU will nearly equate to the Eurozone once we leave.
Where I don't agree with Len is where he states "I've said all along these negotiations are just a con trick or theatre for an ignorant media and no more". They simply are not negotiations. For the EU will not offer anything except Norway/EFTA or Canada. Not in their interests to offer bespoke deals nor do they wish to empower the alt-right who took the UK to this place. They do not wish to risk contagion, especially with Italian elections coming up. It's actually a time for the UK government to work out the angles and come up with an answer. Such a shame that they haven't used the time very well.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/07/brexit-manufacturing-exports-leave
Can you imagine if a political party broke several key manifesto promises and edited their website to make it look they never promised them in the first place? It's very reminiscent of the Soviet rewriting of history to suit their agenda.
* and by funny I mean completely fraudulent and further evidence of a campaign that won on a platform of lies knowing electoral law did not apply to the advisory non-binding referendum.
The real benefit of EFTA membership would be that it would allow membership of the EEA, but, again, there is the problem of persuading its signatories to allow the UK some form of temporary arrangement.
And Stephen Kinnock, with his background, should know that achieving a temporary membership of EFTA and the EEA is fraught with difficulties.
And I imagine the EFTA members will look on at our leading Brexit politicians, who change their mind like the weather and have no regard for principles or pragmatism whatsoever, and judge them accordingly.
Thanks pal.
I didn't anticipate being quoted so often.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-nhs-brexit-free-trade-deal-donald-trump-2018-2
There's an eerily similar concern.
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/07/n-ireland-police-chief-says-hard-brexit-border-posts-would-be-paramilitary-target
To me it encompasses all that is brexit. It is about control of borders, but also about UK/EU citizens status. The sheer practicalities and attendant costs. The willingness of the UK to honour an International Treaty. The politics of it all, surprisingly increased in strength by the Tory deal with the DUP. The notion that brexiters knew what they were voting for, and the lack of practical solutions to brexit that the brexiters can muster. The idea of free trade verses tariffs...probably a host of other things as well.
So far no brexiters have suggested a practical solution to the Irish border.
There seems to be a lot less common ground between the UK and EU27 than might have been expected following the agreement on sufficient progress.
The widely reported words of Michel Barnier today: https://theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/09/brexit-uk-demands-putting-transition-deal-in-doubt-says-barnier.
The EU27 view on how the UK Government's stated desire for the border in Ireland can be achieved (which is unlikely to prove too popular with the hard Brexit DUP): https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says.
The Irish Times (republishing a Financial Times article), highlights something which does not provide much comfort to those of us who would hope for minimal economic disruption beyond March 2019 (it very much looks as if the UK's position regarding international trade agreements is going to be uncertain for some time): https://irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/britain-to-world-please-pretend-we-are-not-leaving-eu-1.3386401.
Other Irish Times articles are no more reassuring, it's clear that the expectation from this, the most pro-UK, news organisation in the most pro-UK EU27 country, is that Brexit cannot be delivered as has been promised: https://irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/facts-of-brexit-become-more-insistent-by-the-week-1.3385576 and interestingly, for questions of both the Good Friday Agreement and the UK desire to remove itself from the influence of the ECJ: https://irishtimes.com/opinion/noel-whelan-eu-rights-of-irish-citizens-in-north-a-brexit-dilemma-1.3385131.
Frankly, I'm very concerned. At a time when, should anyone wish to achieve both acceptable Withdrawal and Free Trade agreements that will benefit both sides, when the UK and EU27 should have a significant degree of clarity on what both sides want, and be moving together towards some kind of compromise, the actual position appears to be going in the other direction.
Don't get me wrong, I have always believed that the UK's stated position on what a post-Brexit relationship would be to be impossibly contradictory and unrealistic - but, I have held on to the slender hope that I might be proved wrong.
The words of David Davies this week, berating the EU27 position, have not gone down well, as far as I can see, in the EU27 - and there were comments along the lines of pot and kettle, given the almost immediate repudiation by Mr Davies of what the Phase 1 sufficient progress agreement amounted to. I'm really not a conspiracy theorist, but I am beginning to onder whether his intent is to have no agreement with the EU27 and have what is often described as a disorderly Brexit.
I have a feeling that my sense of dread will increase dramatically.
Except of course the Tories now depend on the DUP to sustain power.
Maybe the choice is either a United Ireland or no brexit at all.