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The Takeover Thread - Duchatelet Finally Sells (Jan 2020)

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Comments

  • All gone very very quite
  • Beardface said:

    I think the Aussie rumour is accurate, because it is so obscure that I doubt it would make the press unless there was something to it.

    But remember that in that rumour was the statement that they were trying to find £20M in funding. Which is a really bad sign for our future should they get the club.

    It means the debt would stay "as is" and RD would be skimming £2M per year in interest off the top. Also, if the Aussies are struggling just to find £20M, then where are they going to find money to offset steep losses? Or transfers?


    RD is dreadful but at least he is not broke.

    So many people keep going on and on about the "finding £20mil" and assuming this means they don't have the money to fund us. That's likely not the case. They're a consortium of investors - raising capital from different investors reduces the risk exposed to each individual (think crowdfunding as a retail example). What it means is they have a limited appetite for losses - not a lack of funds to invest. It's how every consortium of investors works where they want a return on their money.
    If I purely wanted to invest to make a financial return...I wouldn't be investing in a 3rd division football club
  • Beardface said:

    I think the Aussie rumour is accurate, because it is so obscure that I doubt it would make the press unless there was something to it.

    But remember that in that rumour was the statement that they were trying to find £20M in funding. Which is a really bad sign for our future should they get the club.

    It means the debt would stay "as is" and RD would be skimming £2M per year in interest off the top. Also, if the Aussies are struggling just to find £20M, then where are they going to find money to offset steep losses? Or transfers?


    RD is dreadful but at least he is not broke.

    So many people keep going on and on about the "finding £20mil" and assuming this means they don't have the money to fund us. That's likely not the case. They're a consortium of investors - raising capital from different investors reduces the risk exposed to each individual (think crowdfunding as a retail example). What it means is they have a limited appetite for losses - not a lack of funds to invest. It's how every consortium of investors works where they want a return on their money.
    If I purely wanted to invest to make a financial return...I wouldn't be investing in a 3rd division football club
    It's about risk and reward. Your risk appetite is different to theirs. Their website clearly says that they're looking for an underperforming English club to get promoted to the Premiership in 5 years and then realise their investment though a sale (IPO). That is clearly looking for a return on investment. It may be unlikely - and we all may think they'll not make their money back - but that's not for us to determine their appetite for risk. If their consortium can afford to risk their capital for a c.5 fold+ return on their investment then that's their call. So long as they go into it with their eyes open on the ongoing funding requirements and the level of risk involved then good luck to them.
  • Being owned by venture capitalists has not gone so well for Coventry.
  • Being owned by venture capitalists has not gone so well for Coventry.

    Sisu is a hedge fund / are hedge fund managers - not venture capitalists.

    I'm not saying the Australian consortium bid is the right one for us - but if we're going to pass judgement on it then it should be for the right reasons with an understanding of the approach based on the information we have - there's been too much scaremongering and not enough acknowledgement that we simply don't have enough information to make an informed opinion on the strength of the alleged bid yet.
  • Surely a far more attractive proposition is to buy a team on the up with a bigger ground and a less disenchanted fanbase, in the championship.
  • I think I am right in saying Brighton have just got promoted after the owner spent £250M on them. They are seen as being well run but if he now IPO'd them would they be worth more than that - I doubt it and certainly not at multiples worth having taken on all that risk.
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  • Beardface said:

    Beardface said:

    I think the Aussie rumour is accurate, because it is so obscure that I doubt it would make the press unless there was something to it.

    But remember that in that rumour was the statement that they were trying to find £20M in funding. Which is a really bad sign for our future should they get the club.

    It means the debt would stay "as is" and RD would be skimming £2M per year in interest off the top. Also, if the Aussies are struggling just to find £20M, then where are they going to find money to offset steep losses? Or transfers?


    RD is dreadful but at least he is not broke.

    So many people keep going on and on about the "finding £20mil" and assuming this means they don't have the money to fund us. That's likely not the case. They're a consortium of investors - raising capital from different investors reduces the risk exposed to each individual (think crowdfunding as a retail example). What it means is they have a limited appetite for losses - not a lack of funds to invest. It's how every consortium of investors works where they want a return on their money.
    If I purely wanted to invest to make a financial return...I wouldn't be investing in a 3rd division football club
    It's about risk and reward. Your risk appetite is different to theirs. Their website clearly says that they're looking for an underperforming English club to get promoted to the Premiership in 5 years and then realise their investment though a sale (IPO). That is clearly looking for a return on investment. It may be unlikely - and we all may think they'll not make their money back - but that's not for us to determine their appetite for risk. If their consortium can afford to risk their capital for a c.5 fold+ return on their investment then that's their call. So long as they go into it with their eyes open on the ongoing funding requirements and the level of risk involved then good luck to them.
    some investors don't mind losing some money - they can offset gains made elsewhere against any loss made on this investment. Also , £3m to you may seem like a lot of money, to them it may be nothing.
  • another false dawn
  • We continue to be 'NOT' for sale
  • Grumpyaddick is joking guys. These things in reality can take a long time.
  • Can we read anything into the fact that no contract extensions have been announced yet?

    We haven't even had the much anticipated Jacko as coach announcement. Surely if he was retiring they'd want to give it as much notice as possible so people can come to give him a send off.
  • No I don't think that grumpy there not even that smart.
  • Maybe they are just inept and incompetent tossers ?

    You are giving them too much credit there grumpy :)
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  • Beardface said:

    Beardface said:

    I think the Aussie rumour is accurate, because it is so obscure that I doubt it would make the press unless there was something to it.

    But remember that in that rumour was the statement that they were trying to find £20M in funding. Which is a really bad sign for our future should they get the club.

    It means the debt would stay "as is" and RD would be skimming £2M per year in interest off the top. Also, if the Aussies are struggling just to find £20M, then where are they going to find money to offset steep losses? Or transfers?


    RD is dreadful but at least he is not broke.

    So many people keep going on and on about the "finding £20mil" and assuming this means they don't have the money to fund us. That's likely not the case. They're a consortium of investors - raising capital from different investors reduces the risk exposed to each individual (think crowdfunding as a retail example). What it means is they have a limited appetite for losses - not a lack of funds to invest. It's how every consortium of investors works where they want a return on their money.
    If I purely wanted to invest to make a financial return...I wouldn't be investing in a 3rd division football club
    It's about risk and reward. Your risk appetite is different to theirs. Their website clearly says that they're looking for an underperforming English club to get promoted to the Premiership in 5 years and then realise their investment though a sale (IPO). That is clearly looking for a return on investment. It may be unlikely - and we all may think they'll not make their money back - but that's not for us to determine their appetite for risk. If their consortium can afford to risk their capital for a c.5 fold+ return on their investment then that's their call. So long as they go into it with their eyes open on the ongoing funding requirements and the level of risk involved then good luck to them.
    The Championship is full of clubs also desperate to get to the pot of gold. The only way for such a scheme would be to get to the PL and sell out to some rich Middle Eastern/Chinese owner, and by the time we might ever get there, maybe there won't be so potential many owners left.

    The TV money may have gone up, but it's not as if PL clubs are all making tons of money, the level of returns that would justify spending £100m plus in getting promotion.
  • I've been of the opinion from the beginning that the Aussie deal wouldn't happen but it would at least open the door to others.

    Roland seems very likely to be with us next season but, as you say, we are stilll closer to the day they go.
  • Beardface said:

    Beardface said:

    I think the Aussie rumour is accurate, because it is so obscure that I doubt it would make the press unless there was something to it.

    But remember that in that rumour was the statement that they were trying to find £20M in funding. Which is a really bad sign for our future should they get the club.

    It means the debt would stay "as is" and RD would be skimming £2M per year in interest off the top. Also, if the Aussies are struggling just to find £20M, then where are they going to find money to offset steep losses? Or transfers?


    RD is dreadful but at least he is not broke.

    So many people keep going on and on about the "finding £20mil" and assuming this means they don't have the money to fund us. That's likely not the case. They're a consortium of investors - raising capital from different investors reduces the risk exposed to each individual (think crowdfunding as a retail example). What it means is they have a limited appetite for losses - not a lack of funds to invest. It's how every consortium of investors works where they want a return on their money.
    If I purely wanted to invest to make a financial return...I wouldn't be investing in a 3rd division football club
    It's about risk and reward. Your risk appetite is different to theirs. Their website clearly says that they're looking for an underperforming English club to get promoted to the Premiership in 5 years and then realise their investment though a sale (IPO). That is clearly looking for a return on investment. It may be unlikely - and we all may think they'll not make their money back - but that's not for us to determine their appetite for risk. If their consortium can afford to risk their capital for a c.5 fold+ return on their investment then that's their call. So long as they go into it with their eyes open on the ongoing funding requirements and the level of risk involved then good luck to them.
    The Championship is full of clubs also desperate to get to the pot of gold. The only way for such a scheme would be to get to the PL and sell out to some rich Middle Eastern/Chinese owner, and by the time we might ever get there, maybe there won't be so potential many owners left.

    The TV money may have gone up, but it's not as if PL clubs are all making tons of money, the level of returns that would justify spending £100m plus in getting promotion.
    You're right that the championship is full of clubs trying to reach that pot of gold. The Aussie's stated business model is to get to the PL and sell via an IPO meaning the club will likely be a public company as we were for a long time and (I think) Swansea were until more recently. This is not disimmilar to your scenario with a rich foreign owner buying the club and that may well be their preferred option but can't be stated in public given its fanciful nature.

    If they got the club for £20mil with a further £10mil on reaching the premiership for the ground (which I dobt advocate splitting) - plus £1Mil per year for five years in ground rent - they'd have paid £35Mil for a club with (presumably) no inherited debt. Add even your figure of £100m to get to the premiership and they've got a premiership club for £135 Mil. They'd likely keep for a year or two and, if still in the premiership - sell for c. £250mil (best guess - who really knows). They'd have also creamed a chunk of profit each year - raising their profit to over £150mil given the additional sponsorship etc.

    This is in part wishful thinking on anyone who wants to invest in a league 1 football club, but ultimately it's what a lot of investors do. It's what Cash, Slater and co seemingly tried to do before pulling out after the first 18 months.

    There is logic behind a consortium bid - but it comes down to their risk appetite and whether they're willing to bet big to get to the Premiership. It doesn't have to be a massively wealthy owner - what we should be challenging at this stage is whether they've got the ability to run a successful football club, pockets deep enough to last the time it'll take to get back to the premiership and the stomach to stick it out and fix it when things invariably don't go quite accordingly to plan.
  • The bid is supposed to include the training ground. Money will be needed to complete this so any consortium would need finance for this.
  • stonemuse said:

    I've been of the opinion from the beginning that the Aussie deal wouldn't happen but it would at least open the door to others.

    Roland seems very likely to be with us next season but, as you say, we are stilll closer to the day they go.

    Pretty much this. The report in the Mail always felt like it was one side using it as an advert. Which way round I wasn't sure but looks more and more like it was the Aussie group appealing for investors.
  • After we win on Saturday and finish the season top of the current form table !

    We will have KR and this squad minus 2or3 who can get a move, being replaced with some more shit third raters who can't get a game elsewhere, but are free.

    That's folks is our future !
  • Beardface said:

    Beardface said:

    Beardface said:

    I think the Aussie rumour is accurate, because it is so obscure that I doubt it would make the press unless there was something to it.

    But remember that in that rumour was the statement that they were trying to find £20M in funding. Which is a really bad sign for our future should they get the club.

    It means the debt would stay "as is" and RD would be skimming £2M per year in interest off the top. Also, if the Aussies are struggling just to find £20M, then where are they going to find money to offset steep losses? Or transfers?


    RD is dreadful but at least he is not broke.

    So many people keep going on and on about the "finding £20mil" and assuming this means they don't have the money to fund us. That's likely not the case. They're a consortium of investors - raising capital from different investors reduces the risk exposed to each individual (think crowdfunding as a retail example). What it means is they have a limited appetite for losses - not a lack of funds to invest. It's how every consortium of investors works where they want a return on their money.
    If I purely wanted to invest to make a financial return...I wouldn't be investing in a 3rd division football club
    It's about risk and reward. Your risk appetite is different to theirs. Their website clearly says that they're looking for an underperforming English club to get promoted to the Premiership in 5 years and then realise their investment though a sale (IPO). That is clearly looking for a return on investment. It may be unlikely - and we all may think they'll not make their money back - but that's not for us to determine their appetite for risk. If their consortium can afford to risk their capital for a c.5 fold+ return on their investment then that's their call. So long as they go into it with their eyes open on the ongoing funding requirements and the level of risk involved then good luck to them.
    The Championship is full of clubs also desperate to get to the pot of gold. The only way for such a scheme would be to get to the PL and sell out to some rich Middle Eastern/Chinese owner, and by the time we might ever get there, maybe there won't be so potential many owners left.

    The TV money may have gone up, but it's not as if PL clubs are all making tons of money, the level of returns that would justify spending £100m plus in getting promotion.
    You're right that the championship is full of clubs trying to reach that pot of gold. The Aussie's stated business model is to get to the PL and sell via an IPO meaning the club will likely be a public company as we were for a long time and (I think) Swansea were until more recently. This is not disimmilar to your scenario with a rich foreign owner buying the club and that may well be their preferred option but can't be stated in public given its fanciful nature.

    If they got the club for £20mil with a further £10mil on reaching the premiership for the ground (which I dobt advocate splitting) - plus £1Mil per year for five years in ground rent - they'd have paid £35Mil for a club with (presumably) no inherited debt. Add even your figure of £100m to get to the premiership and they've got a premiership club for £135 Mil. They'd likely keep for a year or two and, if still in the premiership - sell for c. £250mil (best guess - who really knows). They'd have also creamed a chunk of profit each year - raising their profit to over £150mil given the additional sponsorship etc.

    This is in part wishful thinking on anyone who wants to invest in a league 1 football club, but ultimately it's what a lot of investors do. It's what Cash, Slater and co seemingly tried to do before pulling out after the first 18 months.

    There is logic behind a consortium bid - but it comes down to their risk appetite and whether they're willing to bet big to get to the Premiership. It doesn't have to be a massively wealthy owner - what we should be challenging at this stage is whether they've got the ability to run a successful football club, pockets deep enough to last the time it'll take to get back to the premiership and the stomach to stick it out and fix it when things invariably don't go quite accordingly to plan.
    Even if we went up, there's good chance of immediate relegation. All 3 of last season's relegated clubs are in the bottom 5 at the moment.

    Survive the first season and you have a chance of getting a big investor. I think the IPO model is most unlikely (I still have my worthless Charlton Athletic share certificate on the wall)
  • Stig said:

    It's looking increasingly likely from my perspective* that there won't be an immediate take over and that any Aussie interest was either wildly overhyped or put-off by Duchatelet's insistence on keeping control of the ground.

    It is disappointing to think that they could be here next season, but it's no reason to feel totally despondent. The idea that that they could sell for £20m and still retain the ground is both appalling and at the same time ridiculously fanciful. Roly may still harbour hopes of getting his money back (just as Silly Uncle Dick did before him), but the truth of the matter is that £20m is absolutely pushing the boundaries of what the club would worth in its entirety. With its main infrastructure retained by someone else, it's ridiculous to imagine anyone would pay a fraction of that.

    We are closer to the day they go, though. They can't hang on for ever, at some point Roly will have to swallow his pride and cut his losses. The fact that we even got the Aussie rumour suggests that they'd sell for a price, they just need to realise that you can't wreck something and then sell it for the price you paid. I suspect the he might fancy having a punt at getting us promoted next season. That being the case, he'll fail as ever and will likely lose another £12m in the process.

    We need to be there on Sunday to help him get the message that selling, and selling early, is in his best interests.


    *My perspective is based on having no insider information at all, and me reading only what the internet's finest vinegar-pissers have to say.

    Does that mean they are good at pissing vinegar, or that they piss balsamic? The devil is in the detail of these things
  • If, as looks likely, the deal has fallen through or was not that serious in the first place then I'll be looking forward to RD spending a few million £££ in the summer, buying the best players in this league (and some from the championship) so that we have a decent squad at last. KM & KR are on record saying that they will (and we know that the pair are always true to their word) so by the time we play Welling in mid-July I'm expecting to see at least half a dozen new faces. If not, then there will be hell to pay..........
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!