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The Takeover Thread - Duchatelet Finally Sells (Jan 2020)

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Comments

  • razil said:

    having a billionaire owner hasn't helped us so far, I want an owner who knows the business and has enough money to help but not so much that money isn't an object, who respects our history and wants to work with the fans.

    Don't we all - if you find one please tell Roland.

  • razil said:

    Could it have been avoided with this owner? Not sure I agree, and we were able to look at his track record, which wasn't great was it.

    He could have avoided it if he wanted to, up until the appointment of Fraye he could have done.

    Also the club could perhaps break even with an enlightened owner and fan collaboration filling the ground.

    We couldn't fill the ground every week in the premier league. Target 10 thousand took years, in the championship. Every year we stagnant the harder it will get.

    I do agree a new owner isn't necessarily going to be better than the current one, not going to stop me wishing for a decent owner..

    Unfortunately I find it very unlikely that we will found an owner that is both wealthy enough and decent enough to please everyone.

  • FAVADDICK said:

    Come on shootershill enlighten us please??

    Ok. Don’t shoot the messenger.

    I was unable to log on here earlier and payed a visit to another forum. Being said there that the Mysterious 5th interested party have made their move. If I’m reading it correctly it kind of hints at Arabs and Qatar in particular. Racing connection.

    No idea if this is bollocks or not.

    But it's pigeon racing !
  • We’d be a lot closer with a fuller ground. Aren’t current losses £6m per year?


  • I could bring my rattle.
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  • razil said:

    @Cafc43v3r we 'filled' the ground in the Premier League the only limit as I recall was the way the Away section was configured, so not relevant

    OK it was not relevant as you are not selling Rooney, Ronaldo and Henry. In their place you are selling Scunthorpe, Burton and Fleetwood.

    If for a play of semi last year we have 14k max fans, where are you going to find the other 10k fans to "fill the ground"?
  • Let’s not take the mick out of the financial calculations of @razil
    After all it’s nearly Christmas, when he’ll be having a tantrum if nobody pays him to attend their ruddy Christmas lunch...
  • razil said:

    We’d be a lot closer with a fuller ground. Aren’t current losses £6m per year?


    Um no, I think I made this argument about 3/4 months ago and @Airman Brown shot me down, with a brilliant break down of the numbers.
  • edited November 2018
    razil said:

    We’d be a lot closer with a fuller ground. Aren’t current losses £6m per year?


    No, they are twice that. Of course it would be better to have more revenue but no realistic increase in gates will make a meaningful change.

    Obviously Duchatelet’s pitiful management is a factor in that - losses have ballooned on his watch because of silly decisions - but, for example, a 4,000 increase in average attendances at current prices might yield about £1.5m a year at best - probably less.

  • edited November 2018
    hmm I must be getting confused then because LdT said monthly losses were £0.5m at I think two recent FFs now, and its not like we've earned £6m in player sales and sell on fees, although we may have reduced the wage bill a fair bit.

    Referring to the point above, I would argue with enlightened ownership which could involve a number of measures including fan engagement, possibly part ownership, established some years back we wouldn't have the gates we have today. The evidence for that is the gates last time we were in League 1 under ownership that was far from radical.

    I take the point that it isn't a magic wand we can suddenly wave but I do think under a different ownership model we could bring crowds back to the Valley incrementally over time, assuming its not too late.
  • Davo55 said:

    razil said:

    hmm I must be getting confused then because LdT said monthly losses were £0.5m at I think two recent FFs now, and its not like we've earned £6m in player sales and sell on fees, although we may have reduced the wage bill a fair bit.

    Referring to the point above, I would argue with enlightened ownership which could involve a number of measures including fan engagement, possibly part ownership, established some years back we wouldn't have the gates we have today. The evidence for that is the gates last time we were in League 1 which wasn't even that radical.

    I take the point that it isn't a magic wand we can suddenly wave but I do think under a different ownership model we could bring crowds back to the Valley incrementally over time, assuming its not too late.

    Is anyone seriously still believing a word this bloke says? If so, wake up and smell the coffee guys.
    Mmmmmmmm Coffee smells good but LDT smells better 😸
  • edited November 2018
    I think its a mistake to think the FF believe everything they are told. I've been quite impressed with the general discerning nature of the group, not just the excellent Mr Wallis. I will though seek a clarification on the numbers.



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  • razil said:

    I think its a mistake to think the FF believe everything they are told. I've been quite impressed with the general discerning nature of the group, not just the excellent Mr Wallis. I will though seek a clarification on the numbers.



    Then why bother quoting the bloke?

    I’d rather let people make up their own minds than tell them what to think.
  • razil said:

    razil said:

    I think its a mistake to think the FF believe everything they are told. I've been quite impressed with the general discerning nature of the group, not just the excellent Mr Wallis. I will though seek a clarification on the numbers.



    Then why bother quoting the bloke?

    I’d rather let people make up their own minds than tell them what to think.
    I agree...what shall we make up our minds about? :smiley:
  • razil said:

    I think its a mistake to think the FF believe everything they are told. I've been quite impressed with the general discerning nature of the group, not just the excellent Mr Wallis. I will though seek a clarification on the numbers.



    We don’t have the accounts for 2017/18 but based on the detail disclosed by Duchatelet the operating loss must have been circa £13m (£14.3m in 16/17). It is inconceivable that £6/£7m of costs have fallen out of the budget for 18/19 (given football salary costs are the biggest item) while revenue is likely to have fallen further.

    It is true that some of the bottom line loss does not need to be funded, e.g. interest is just added to the debt so he is not putting that money in, but the funding requirement is unlikely to average as little as £0.5m a month over the full year.

    However the fundamental issue with your “fill the ground” argument is that the revenue is much lower than you assume. Only about 55% of paid ticket sales go to adults - and about a third of season ticket sales are at the £200 price point, which yields £7.25 a game from adults after VAT.

    So as much as people might look at some match tickets costing £28, the average yield per ticket is unlikely to be much more than £12/£13. Allowing a very generous £2 per head margin on all ancillary sales, a benchmark total benefit per fan would be £15. The total possible revenue from 23,700 home spectators (assuming a pro rata increase in season-ticket holders) is therefore about £8m against current operating costs of circa £20m (£21.1m in 16/17).

    There is other revenue but it amounted to £4.4m in 16/17, of which just £1.2m was commercial. Much of the rest is central payments and academy grant.
    He might be talking about the cash funding the club needs rather than the operating loss? £3.5m of our operating loss is depreciation / amortisation from the last accounts + £800k exceptional costs and we had a couple of million in the bank at year end.

    Depends how much they've reduced the wage bill by really. Either way the club is going to need £0.5-1m cash every month to run. The operating loss he's alluded to for the financial year is quite likely though.
  • jac52 said:

    razil said:

    I think its a mistake to think the FF believe everything they are told. I've been quite impressed with the general discerning nature of the group, not just the excellent Mr Wallis. I will though seek a clarification on the numbers.



    We don’t have the accounts for 2017/18 but based on the detail disclosed by Duchatelet the operating loss must have been circa £13m (£14.3m in 16/17). It is inconceivable that £6/£7m of costs have fallen out of the budget for 18/19 (given football salary costs are the biggest item) while revenue is likely to have fallen further.

    It is true that some of the bottom line loss does not need to be funded, e.g. interest is just added to the debt so he is not putting that money in, but the funding requirement is unlikely to average as little as £0.5m a month over the full year.

    However the fundamental issue with your “fill the ground” argument is that the revenue is much lower than you assume. Only about 55% of paid ticket sales go to adults - and about a third of season ticket sales are at the £200 price point, which yields £7.25 a game from adults after VAT.

    So as much as people might look at some match tickets costing £28, the average yield per ticket is unlikely to be much more than £12/£13. Allowing a very generous £2 per head margin on all ancillary sales, a benchmark total benefit per fan would be £15. The total possible revenue from 23,700 home spectators (assuming a pro rata increase in season-ticket holders) is therefore about £8m against current operating costs of circa £20m (£21.1m in 16/17).

    There is other revenue but it amounted to £4.4m in 16/17, of which just £1.2m was commercial. Much of the rest is central payments and academy grant.
    He might be talking about the cash funding the club needs rather than the operating loss? £3.5m of our operating loss is depreciation / amortisation from the last accounts + £800k exceptional costs and we had a couple of million in the bank at year end.

    Depends how much they've reduced the wage bill by really. Either way the club is going to need £0.5-1m cash every month to run. The operating loss he's alluded to for the financial year is quite likely though.
    I agree he’s talking about the funding requirement and with what you say (see my post above) but Razil referred to the loss. The operating loss is very likely to remain in eight figures, because if you look at the player turnover there is nothing going to reduce salary costs by more than £3m net, while revenue is still falling.

    The club also posts ”exceptional items” every year so I wouldn’t take that very seriously.
  • edited November 2018

    jac52 said:

    razil said:

    I think its a mistake to think the FF believe everything they are told. I've been quite impressed with the general discerning nature of the group, not just the excellent Mr Wallis. I will though seek a clarification on the numbers.



    We don’t have the accounts for 2017/18 but based on the detail disclosed by Duchatelet the operating loss must have been circa £13m (£14.3m in 16/17). It is inconceivable that £6/£7m of costs have fallen out of the budget for 18/19 (given football salary costs are the biggest item) while revenue is likely to have fallen further.

    It is true that some of the bottom line loss does not need to be funded, e.g. interest is just added to the debt so he is not putting that money in, but the funding requirement is unlikely to average as little as £0.5m a month over the full year.

    However the fundamental issue with your “fill the ground” argument is that the revenue is much lower than you assume. Only about 55% of paid ticket sales go to adults - and about a third of season ticket sales are at the £200 price point, which yields £7.25 a game from adults after VAT.

    So as much as people might look at some match tickets costing £28, the average yield per ticket is unlikely to be much more than £12/£13. Allowing a very generous £2 per head margin on all ancillary sales, a benchmark total benefit per fan would be £15. The total possible revenue from 23,700 home spectators (assuming a pro rata increase in season-ticket holders) is therefore about £8m against current operating costs of circa £20m (£21.1m in 16/17).

    There is other revenue but it amounted to £4.4m in 16/17, of which just £1.2m was commercial. Much of the rest is central payments and academy grant.
    He might be talking about the cash funding the club needs rather than the operating loss? £3.5m of our operating loss is depreciation / amortisation from the last accounts + £800k exceptional costs and we had a couple of million in the bank at year end.

    Depends how much they've reduced the wage bill by really. Either way the club is going to need £0.5-1m cash every month to run. The operating loss he's alluded to for the financial year is quite likely though.
    I agree he’s talking about the funding requirement and with what you say (see my post above) but Razil referred to the loss. The operating loss is very likely to remain in eight figures, because if you look at the player turnover there is nothing going to reduce salary costs by more than £3m net, while revenue is still falling.

    The club also posts ”exceptional items” every year so I wouldn’t take that very seriously.
    Just realised my last sentence wasn't very clear. Yes, agree with your view on the operating loss although sadly we won't get to see what the current cash burn is until the 2019 accounts are filed.
  • Any cameras trained on the directors box today?
  • Feel sorry for Bolton or any club with the financial problems they obviously have.
  • sammy391 said:

    Any cameras trained on the directors box today?

    No because the East stand was closed :-)
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!