Interest rate review on Thursday with the Bank of England, ‘experts’ predicting a 0.5% increase (there not always right!) will be interesting to see if it’s already priced into the market!
The consensus around investment managers is that it will be 0.5%, but rates will peak around 3% next year & then may actually fall back to around 2%-2.5%. BOE dont want rates higher than necessary as we could be heading for a recession.
I hope the concensus is right as a recession would be devastating for all sorts of reasons. But how is a 3% peak compatible with BoE mandate of keeping inflation down? Or is my simple economics outdated? Actually since read yours and others comment on another thread. Although there is a logic in your response my gut tells me there is only a slim chance of inflation falling to 4% in a years time. I'm old enough to rememember the "temporary" inflation in 70's
Interest rate review on Thursday with the Bank of England, ‘experts’ predicting a 0.5% increase (there not always right!) will be interesting to see if it’s already priced into the market!
The consensus around investment managers is that it will be 0.5%, but rates will peak around 3% next year & then may actually fall back to around 2%-2.5%. BOE dont want rates higher than necessary as we could be heading for a recession.
I hope the concensus is right as a recession would be devastating for all sorts of reasons. But how is a 3% peak compatible with BoE mandate of keeping inflation down? Or is my simple economics outdated? Actually since read yours and others comment on another thread. Although there is a logic in your response my gut tells me there is only a slim chance of inflation falling to 4% in a years time. I'm old enough to rememember the "temporary" inflation in 70's
Today's inflation does not compare with the 70's & late 80's inflation. The 70's inflation was mainly down to wage growth & Unions holding too much power. The late 80's inflation was partly down to house price growth (borne by the withdrawal of MIRAS) and consumers then going out & buying white goods for their new homes. Also in part to the general good feeling in the City, Yupees & Loadsamoney entrepreneurs setting up their self employed business that Maggie extolled.
The 2022 inflation is an overseas made one, borne by supply/demand issues & high oil prices. Because of Covid & the "just in time" way goods were being shipped or manufactured then supply couldnt meet demand. Lots of components for cars, phones & many other electrical goods were (and still are) stuck in containers or in ports on the wrong side of the world. We even had a run on loo rolls when people thought they wouldn't be able to wipe their arses the next day ! Then the war in Ukraine meant oil & wheat supply disruption with Putin holding the West to ransom.
Inflation is transitory. Things that make "inflation" are in the counting system for 12 months. After 12 months they "fall out" of the system. If the war in Ukraine finished tomorrow then I would expect inflation would be around the 2%-3% in a years time.
Obviously this is a simplistic view & it is more nuanced than that, but the premise that we will be going back to 15% inflation because of the Unions or Brexit is very wide of the mark imo.
@golfaddick I can't disagree with much you say. However there are many cost pressures continuing to build: global shortages , wage increases (although not to the extent of 70s and neither do they bear as much of the effective cost base). Add this to a new PM (assuming the polls are correct) who has promised a big stimulus to the economy I personally am very sceptical about inflation being only 4% in a years time. Be interesting to see how it pans out and hope I am wrong.
Encouraged by this thread I have just topped up my ancient £50 holding (never won a bean) and I look forward to reporting not winning anything further in future to make the rest of you feel even smugger with your payouts.
I’m away and can’t be arsed to look. I didn’t get The Call. That’s all that matters.
Speaking of The Call do you only get it if you have the Million or do they do something for lower levels of big win? I’ve never seen an article about it, I wonder if they have somehow persuaded the media to stay vague about it. If so that would be quite an achievement.
I’m away and can’t be arsed to look. I didn’t get The Call. That’s all that matters.
Speaking of The Call do you only get it if you have the Million or do they do something for lower levels of big win? I’ve never seen an article about it, I wonder if they have somehow persuaded the media to stay vague about it. If so that would be quite an achievement.
I saw a programme once that was about the NSI people who go round to the houses of people who win a million on the premium bonds to tell the winners the good news.
As far as I recall, they go round the last day of the previous month. So I always get excited when a strange car pulls up outside my house on the last day of the month!
Encouraged by this thread I have just topped up my ancient £50 holding (never won a bean) and I look forward to reporting not winning anything further in future to make the rest of you feel even smugger with your payouts.
So can we assume you now have £50 worth…. I’d like to think that doubles your chances. But, I’m sure mathematically that’s not true.
Been an interesting couple of months on my Pensions/ISA's
I switched provider during June for my main pension and one of my ISA's, it took longer than expected meaning I was holding all as cash from around the beginning of March so I missed the big dip.
Having moved it in late June I dropped just over 1% that month. However July it bounced back big time, up by almost 6% So far August looks pretty too, up almost 1%.
Anyone else seen a big bounce back?
My largest holding (around 25%) is in an S&P 500 tracker which has performed the best, up nearly 9% since transferring towards the end of June.
musk sold billions of his tesla stock in the last 7 days. Smart money is moving out of the market by the looks of it...
Not sure he's a good barometer when it comes to markets. Tesla is up 20% in under a month, I'd be selling them as well if I were him and Twitter were on my case!
Been an interesting couple of months on my Pensions/ISA's
I switched provider during June for my main pension and one of my ISA's, it took longer than expected meaning I was holding all as cash from around the beginning of March so I missed the big dip.
Having moved it in late June I dropped just over 1% that month. However July it bounced back big time, up by almost 6% So far August looks pretty too, up almost 1%.
Anyone else seen a big bounce back?
My largest holding (around 25%) is in an S&P 500 tracker which has performed the best, up nearly 9% since transferring towards the end of June.
That's the big low point time for most of my funds. It's hard to be precise with the pathetic information H-L provide, but Vanguard 40% LifeStrategy is up just over 6% from that point.
I am not banking on further progress from here. It's interesting that there are tentative mutterings that inflation in the US may have peaked, and that will certainly help you if you have such a large holding in that tracker, but it's still 'may', and in the UK we have the ridiculous Tory leadership contest stalling much needed action to contain energy -led inflation. And in Europe we brace for a tough winter with gas shortages.
Over here I have 5.3% on a bank term deposit of 9 months. Took it three weeks ago. It will be a good investment if the Czech crown holds against sterling. Last few months it has done. And anyway it will be cash I need for taking our house 'renewable', which itself is a top investment.
I didn't see any significant new savings rate increases yet from UK outlets following the rate rise last week. Lamentable. 2.15% is currently best I have from some bank I'd never heard of on Raisin.
Been an interesting couple of months on my Pensions/ISA's
I switched provider during June for my main pension and one of my ISA's, it took longer than expected meaning I was holding all as cash from around the beginning of March so I missed the big dip.
Having moved it in late June I dropped just over 1% that month. However July it bounced back big time, up by almost 6% So far August looks pretty too, up almost 1%.
Anyone else seen a big bounce back?
My largest holding (around 25%) is in an S&P 500 tracker which has performed the best, up nearly 9% since transferring towards the end of June.
That's the big low point time for most of my funds. It's hard to be precise with the pathetic information H-L provide, but Vanguard 40% LifeStrategy is up just over 6% from that point.
I am not banking on further progress from here. It's interesting that there are tentative mutterings that inflation in the US may have peaked, and that will certainly help you if you have such a large holding in that tracker, but it's still 'may', and in the UK we have the ridiculous Tory leadership contest stalling much needed action to contain energy -led inflation. And in Europe we brace for a tough winter with gas shortages.
Over here I have 5.3% on a bank term deposit of 9 months. Took it three weeks ago. It will be a good investment if the Czech crown holds against sterling. Last few months it has done. And anyway it will be cash I need for taking our house 'renewable', which itself is a top investment.
I didn't see any significant new savings rate increases yet from UK outlets following the rate rise last week. Lamentable. 2.15% is currently best I have from some bank I'd never heard of on Raisin.
The high street/well known banks have been dire on savings for many many years and no sign of that massively changing. My banks (HSBC and First direct) pay 0.2% on their instant access! Although bonus pays 1.31% I think if you don't make any withdrawals in the month.
That said shop around and now 3%+ is available for 1 year fixed, very little difference to that and the 2/3/5 year fixes.
Comments
Actually since read yours and others comment on another thread. Although there is a logic in your response my gut tells me there is only a slim chance of inflation falling to 4% in a years time. I'm old enough to rememember the "temporary" inflation in 70's
The 2022 inflation is an overseas made one, borne by supply/demand issues & high oil prices. Because of Covid & the "just in time" way goods were being shipped or manufactured then supply couldnt meet demand. Lots of components for cars, phones & many other electrical goods were (and still are) stuck in containers or in ports on the wrong side of the world. We even had a run on loo rolls when people thought they wouldn't be able to wipe their arses the next day ! Then the war in Ukraine meant oil & wheat supply disruption with Putin holding the West to ransom.
Inflation is transitory. Things that make "inflation" are in the counting system for 12 months. After 12 months they "fall out" of the system. If the war in Ukraine finished tomorrow then I would expect inflation would be around the 2%-3% in a years time.
Obviously this is a simplistic view & it is more nuanced than that, but the premise that we will be going back to 15% inflation because of the Unions or Brexit is very wide of the mark imo.
Every little helps.
Speaking of The Call do you only get it if you have the Million or do they do something for lower levels of big win? I’ve never seen an article about it, I wonder if they have somehow persuaded the media to stay vague about it. If so that would be quite an achievement.
As far as I recall, they go round the last day of the previous month. So I always get excited when a strange car pulls up outside my house on the last day of the month!
I switched provider during June for my main pension and one of my ISA's, it took longer than expected meaning I was holding all as cash from around the beginning of March so I missed the big dip.
Having moved it in late June I dropped just over 1% that month.
However July it bounced back big time, up by almost 6%
So far August looks pretty too, up almost 1%.
Anyone else seen a big bounce back?
My largest holding (around 25%) is in an S&P 500 tracker which has performed the best, up nearly 9% since transferring towards the end of June.
I am not banking on further progress from here. It's interesting that there are tentative mutterings that inflation in the US may have peaked, and that will certainly help you if you have such a large holding in that tracker, but it's still 'may', and in the UK we have the ridiculous Tory leadership contest stalling much needed action to contain energy -led inflation. And in Europe we brace for a tough winter with gas shortages.
Over here I have 5.3% on a bank term deposit of 9 months. Took it three weeks ago. It will be a good investment if the Czech crown holds against sterling. Last few months it has done. And anyway it will be cash I need for taking our house 'renewable', which itself is a top investment.
I didn't see any significant new savings rate increases yet from UK outlets following the rate rise last week. Lamentable. 2.15% is currently best I have from some bank I'd never heard of on Raisin.
That said shop around and now 3%+ is available for 1 year fixed, very little difference to that and the 2/3/5 year fixes.