But the whole won / lost has potential to be flipped on its head.
There are some facts about voting demographics.
The Leave vote had an older skew is one. The Remain vote was stronger in London than the North.
Also the working classes (less wealthy or whatever the modern way is to describe social class) veered more towards Leave.
I am a staunch Tory voter and 'won' the last election.
So now we have George Osborne announcing tax rises. Being made by a Tory government. Along with cuts. All of which the working class leave voters (or should I say the Leave voters who fall in to that catagory) voted for.
So that's one of the things that they hate the most - tax rises and cuts implemented by a conservative chancellor.
Which is why i sometimes wonder if people know what they were voting for (taking back control is in the process of being flipped again). The 'normal man on the street' (not my words but a phrase I have see banded around) in some ways won't have won anything
I am now sitting in a very comfy seat thanks a lot - got a Labour Party who is unelectable, Boris could be PM who is a Europhile who switched sides just to be PM, or May who is almost the same.
It seems likely that the deal is going to be to end welfare payments to EU migrants (tax credits/housing benefits) but freedom of movement will remain. That will curtail low skilled migration which concerns so many people at the bottom of the social pile but wont hinder more positive high skilled incomers. To be honest it shouldn't be a hard sell as the pro immigration lobby is always saying that people don't come for the benefits and it's hard to justify importing labour that needs to be subsidised when we have so many out of work already.
It seems likely that the deal is going to be to end welfare payments to EU migrants (tax credits/housing benefits) but freedom of movement will remain. That will curtail low skilled migration which concerns so many people at the bottom of the social pile but wont hinder more positive high skilled incomers. To be honest it shouldn't be a hard sell as the pro immigration lobby is always saying that people don't come for the benefits and it's hard to justify importing labour that needs to be subsidised when we have so many out of work already.
It would be genuinely interesting to know how many migrants from the EU are in the UK claiming some form of benefit and what the cost to the taxpayer of that is.
It seems likely that the deal is going to be to end welfare payments to EU migrants (tax credits/housing benefits) but freedom of movement will remain. That will curtail low skilled migration which concerns so many people at the bottom of the social pile but wont hinder more positive high skilled incomers. To be honest it shouldn't be a hard sell as the pro immigration lobby is always saying that people don't come for the benefits and it's hard to justify importing labour that needs to be subsidised when we have so many out of work already.
It would be genuinely interesting to know how many migrants from the EU are in the UK claiming some form of benefit and what the cost to the taxpayer of that is.
It seems likely that the deal is going to be to end welfare payments to EU migrants (tax credits/housing benefits) but freedom of movement will remain. That will curtail low skilled migration which concerns so many people at the bottom of the social pile but wont hinder more positive high skilled incomers. To be honest it shouldn't be a hard sell as the pro immigration lobby is always saying that people don't come for the benefits and it's hard to justify importing labour that needs to be subsidised when we have so many out of work already.
It would be genuinely interesting to know how many migrants from the EU are in the UK claiming some form of benefit and what the cost to the taxpayer of that is.
Relatively speaking, its quite low I believe. However, its the principle that annoys me. Why should I (and the rest of us) be paying for someones child in another european country?
I voted remain by the way. If governments had sorted issues out like this, then it is likely we would have voted to stay in the EU
Well it is true. The leave vote won. The remain vote lost.
That is a fact.
It is fact and cannot be denied. The government and civil service are proceeding on that basis as no other option is possible.
It has changed the political landscape forever.
However, as Cameron states, there is the small matter of selecting which model is preferable and then which model might be acceptable to our EU partners. And what are the strings they will attach.
We then get to the point where Parliament and or the people need to ratify this outline model. Ideally before invoking Article 50 and diving into the detail.
My own belief is that all possible models will be inferior to where we are today simply because the EU will not cede access to markets for 450 million people without free movement. And that the EEA option is the same as today but no representation.
It's possible the economy will do well now but unlikely so when Parliament or the people get to review the options of staying or a new set up, this will be against the backdrop of hundreds of thousands having lost their jobs, 3% inflation, a freeze in pay and 12% drop in Sterling.
At that point, instead of dismissing experts, we will all be in a position to decide if this is a price worth paying and whether experts can predict the outcomes of the decisions in front of us.
Of course I might be wrong and the next leader of the Conservative Party may well invoke Article 50 BEFORE working out where we will land. But I sincerely hope we are not in that position next October.
This is probably what most people around the world think. Funny that half of the British people feel otherwise. And if you really think about it, it's not even funny. It's unbelievably sad. How can this be seen as a win or lose thing? I've been watching from a distance and it's really.... eye-opening, in a negative way. It seems to me as if some of your people live in a bubble.
This is probably what most people around the world think. Funny that half of the British people feel otherwise. And if you really think about it, it's not even funny. It's unbelievably sad. How can this be seen as a win or lose thing? I've been watching from a distance and it's really.... eye-opening, in a negative way. It seems to me as if some of your people live in a bubble.
Will be interesting to see how the markets react if other countries go for a referendum - might strengthen our position. Markets appear as clueless as the rest of us at present.
Will be interesting to see how the markets react if other countries go for a referendum - might strengthen our position. Markets appear as clueless as the rest of us at present.
Theres been talk of a few referendums (Nexit, Swexit etc) but I fear that they'll be playing a waiting game to see how well off we come. So most likely a long term effect.
Whilst the EU may want to make an example of us, it does provide quite an interesting question: how will the representatives of the countries watching us curiously whilst pondering their own future act during negotiations?
All I'm picturing at the moment is a monumental game of poker, and we've just put the Porsche and the house on the table..
Will be interesting to see how the markets react if other countries go for a referendum - might strengthen our position. Markets appear as clueless as the rest of us at present.
Theres been talk of a few referendums (Nexit, Swexit etc) but I fear that they'll be playing a waiting game to see how well off we come. So most likely a long term effect.
Whilst the EU may want to make an example of us, it does provide quite an interesting question: how will the representatives of the countries watching us curiously whilst pondering their own future act during negotiations?
All I'm picturing at the moment is a monumental game of poker, and we've just put the Porsche and the house on the table..
People I've spoken to say the pain is still to come if A50 is activated, but with a belief in the City, that no one in Whitehall is going to be stupid enough to go through with this.
With economic opportunities stunted, everyone will suffer for Leave voters wrongly blaming hard-working, taxpaying European migrants for everything they dislike about modern Britain and wrongly trusting economic charlatans like Mr. Gove.
"Economic charlatan". I like that.
From a paper in a country that elected Obama as it's leader.
Concentrate on your gun crime lads - leave the European stuff to us Brits.
People I've spoken to say the pain is still to come if A50 is activated, but with a belief in the City, that no one in Whitehall is going to be stupid enough to go through with this.
A lot might depend on who the next Tory leader is, and what promises they make to the party members to get the job about where they stand on the single market/immigration question balance
People I've spoken to say the pain is still to come if A50 is activated, but with a belief in the City, that no one in Whitehall is going to be stupid enough to go through with this.
A lot might depend on who the next Tory leader is, and what promises they make to the party members to get the job about where they stand on the single market/immigration question balance
Yeah, couple of thousand less Poles, or a load of the countries tax base lost, and a resultant cut in public services and tax rises.
This is probably what most people around the world think. Funny that half of the British people feel otherwise. And if you really think about it, it's not even funny. It's unbelievably sad. How can this be seen as a win or lose thing? I've been watching from a distance and it's really.... eye-opening, in a negative way. It seems to me as if some of your people live in a bubble.
If we were already out of the EU and we had a referendum to join it now, as the EU currently stands, would people vote to join?
This is probably what most people around the world think. Funny that half of the British people feel otherwise. And if you really think about it, it's not even funny. It's unbelievably sad. How can this be seen as a win or lose thing? I've been watching from a distance and it's really.... eye-opening, in a negative way. It seems to me as if some of your people live in a bubble.
If we were already out of the EU and we had a referendum to join it now, as the EU currently stands, would people vote to join?
Yes, it's our destiny. I've seen Star Trek and sometime in the not too distant future we lose all national interests anyway and become a unified planet with a common (USA led) cause. Interestingly though, there's clearly still a Scotsman and a Russian identifiable so I guess those are the two countries that probably hold out to the bitter end before signing up which means Nicola Sturgeon must get told to get on her bike by the EU but Turkey does get let in.
Difference is voting to join now would mean joining the Euro, Schengen and not having the rebate. We had the best of both worlds and we've made a massive pig's ear of it.
Comments
You do realise we are all in this together? It's not like half the country all lose their citizenship or something?
And people wonder why we are so divided now?
Fucks sake
That is a fact.
If I'd known the result would be out I'd have voted out , gutted I lost
A hollow victory when our economy slides into recession.
A hollow victory when thousand upon thousands of people lose their jobs.
A hollow victory.
My only hope is that those that run the country look at this fucking disaster and step back from the edge.
There are some facts about voting demographics.
The Leave vote had an older skew is one.
The Remain vote was stronger in London than the North.
Also the working classes (less wealthy or whatever the modern way is to describe social class) veered more towards Leave.
I am a staunch Tory voter and 'won' the last election.
So now we have George Osborne announcing tax rises. Being made by a Tory government. Along with cuts. All of which the working class leave voters (or should I say the Leave voters who fall in to that catagory) voted for.
So that's one of the things that they hate the most - tax rises and cuts implemented by a conservative chancellor.
Which is why i sometimes wonder if people know what they were voting for (taking back control is in the process of being flipped again). The 'normal man on the street' (not my words but a phrase I have see banded around) in some ways won't have won anything
I am now sitting in a very comfy seat thanks a lot - got a Labour Party who is unelectable, Boris could be PM who is a Europhile who switched sides just to be PM, or May who is almost the same.
Happy days for me in that regard.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-many-eu-migrants-claim-benefits-in-the-uk/
More statistics: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11255425/How-much-do-immigrants-really-claim-in-benefits.html
I voted remain by the way. If governments had sorted issues out like this, then it is likely we would have voted to stay in the EU
FTSE 100 is slightly higher than it's been for the whole of June.
FTSE 250 is down about 8% for the whole of June.
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets
It has changed the political landscape forever.
However, as Cameron states, there is the small matter of selecting which model is preferable and then which model might be acceptable to our EU partners. And what are the strings they will attach.
We then get to the point where Parliament and or the people need to ratify this outline model. Ideally before invoking Article 50 and diving into the detail.
My own belief is that all possible models will be inferior to where we are today simply because the EU will not cede access to markets for 450 million people without free movement. And that the EEA option is the same as today but no representation.
It's possible the economy will do well now but unlikely so when Parliament or the people get to review the options of staying or a new set up, this will be against the backdrop of hundreds of thousands having lost their jobs, 3% inflation, a freeze in pay and 12% drop in Sterling.
At that point, instead of dismissing experts, we will all be in a position to decide if this is a price worth paying and whether experts can predict the outcomes of the decisions in front of us.
Of course I might be wrong and the next leader of the Conservative Party may well invoke Article 50 BEFORE working out where we will land. But I sincerely hope we are not in that position next October.
Whilst the EU may want to make an example of us, it does provide quite an interesting question: how will the representatives of the countries watching us curiously whilst pondering their own future act during negotiations?
All I'm picturing at the moment is a monumental game of poker, and we've just put the Porsche and the house on the table..