We have zero chance of survival. No way will we suddenly gain title winning form which is basically what we would need to stay up. The prediction scores above showing us barely losing again and other teams around us (in better form), losing almost all of theirs are, sadly, fanciful.
We won one game with, something like 36% possession against a team in poor recent form who have been leaking 3 goals in many games recently. Don't get carried away by a false dawn. We will beat Mk Dons Tuesday too as they are rubbish. We will still go down.
At this stage of the season momentum plays a huge factor. The fact that we had players come in in January/February not fit means they missed the exhaustive Christmas period and will hopefully be fresher than most of the others. A win Tuesday and I'd say we're back in it. A bit more work on the training ground with the defense, keep Cousins fit, and I think Riga will enjoy setting his teams up against better sides. Sitting deep, hopefully defending better, then breaking out on the counter--especially with Harriott in form. Stranger things have happened...
It's a big ask to stay up, but not totally impossible.
The teams above us all still have to play it each other, so they can't all win. And there will no doubt be a couple of teams that get caught up in the struggle and sucked in.
There's games enough remaining to pick up enough points - but we do need to win games. And we haven't really done that all season.
DA 9 the best was the free booze end of season in Anti--- never worked it out why it was ALL free but hellish messy.
A good one in the Anchor till the silly sort turned the power off --- I even offered to pay for the DJ and the food !!
The bouncers hiding in Bartrams when people were attempting to walk on the bar-- yes on the bar
Naked bar in The Royal Oak --- not a great site--- maybe why Ray left ?
Big sing song in The Valley pub with Duncan and Tom the Head walked in --- Smallwall had just been relegated and the whole pub sang the Oasis song at him
Happy days even tho the football was/is usually shit
Well an away win, shame the other results didn't go our way.
I might be dreaming but looking at the remaining fixtures:
MK Dons - W Middlesborough - L Sheff W - D Birmingham - D Ipswich - W QPR - D Derby - L Bolton - W Brighton - D Leeds - W Burnley - L
Total points - 16 + 28 = 44
Rotherham
Middlesborough - L Derby - L Ipswich - D Leeds - D Bristol - L MK Dons - W Forest - L Huddersfield - W Wolves - L Blackburn - W Hull - L
Total points - 11 + 32 = 43
MK Dons
Charlton - L Hull - L Brighton - L Fulham - D Wolves - L Rotherham - L Preston - W Sheff - D Brentford - D Ipswich - D Forest - D
Total points - 8 + 35 = 43
I haven't included Bristol, although feel they could be dragged into it but probably safe with 2 games to go.
I can but dream.......
Possible.
I've a hunch that Riga may well get us to around 45 points.......only to find that 22nd spot, and safety, is a team with 46-47 points.
When it comes to it we'll probably go down but the margin will be much narrower than we thought. So narrow that deciding what sank us - in the end - will be debatable. The owner for presiding over a chaotic regime takes some blame of course. But............if it comes down to just 1-2 points?
(1) Luzon for his mad insistence on approaching every game with the same attacking plan, when 50% of the squad were injured, instead of grinding out results.....thus resulting in continual defeats rather than at least 2-3 draws?
(2) Throwing away the 2-0 lead v Bolton? (Blame: Fraeye + the players?)
(3) Conceding the last goal v Reading? (Blame: the defence/Johnson?)
(4) An individual? Tony Watt for all those matches where he continually dribbled into trouble, rather than pass or try to open up the game?
Burnley beat us three nil and for the second year in a row we see the champions collect their prize in our back yard. We'll be pleased for Burnley, they'll have deserved it but the trophy giving will be disrupted as there's five thousand frustrated Charlton fans on the pitch.
Not just Leicester escaping relegation last season but Wigan before there luck eventually ran out often escaped and one year beat absolutely everybody to stay up.
The way i'm looking at it is to first try and catch Rotherham who are 4 in front of us than worrying about how to wipe out the whole 7 points and GD defecit. We simply must beat MK Dons especially with Rotherham home to Boro that same night. Then it's Sheff Weds away who we have a good recent record against, even Karel Fraeye managed to chalk up the biggest win of his life against them!
I've already written off the Boro home game and assumed we will beat MK Dons to stand any chance so the next key game will be away at Sheff Weds. That same day MK Dons are away at Hull and Rotherham away at Ipswich so Sheff Weds away is our chance to make some ground up on MK Dons. If we can be 1 behind Rotherham and 4 behind MK Dons going up to Sheff Weds we'll still have an outside chance.
The other way to look at it is 22nd place is currently averaging a point a game. We would need to get to 47 points to get above this average which means taking 19 points from the last 11 games (6 wins, 1 draw and a budget for 4 defeats)
6 wins would have to be MK Dons, Bolton, Leeds, Sheff Weds, Birmingham and possibly Brighton. It looks difficult but we could and probably should have beaten all six of these teams the first time around so there's no reason why we can't this time around especially as Karel bloody Fraeye was in charge for these the first time around!
Small steps and lots of straws but it's still better than no hope at all.
If we get relegated by anything less than 5 points then the answer to the question 'who was most at fault for us getting relegated' must go jointly to Karel Fraeye and those that appointed him and left him so long in role.
If we get relegated by anything less than 5 points then the answer to the question 'who was most at fault for us getting relegated' must go jointly to Karel Fraeye and those that appointed him and left him so long in role.
This season Luzon and Fraeye both got 10 points from 13 League games........over a season that's 35 from 46. Terrible form in both cases, although Luzon did ok for us in 2014-15.
So far Riga has done 8 points from 8 game (I'm ignoring the Hull match because he can hardly be held liable for it). We were unlucky as well not to get draws out of Bristol C and Reading at home and Preston NE away which I would have expected if we had had a less mucked up season and some stability.
Logically, then, if Riga had been around for 46 matches then we'd be looking at a final tally of at least 46 points and possibly as many as 63.
Some amazing optimism on here. I just wish I could share it but I fear it will all end in tears and some weeks before the end of the season. I really hope I'm wrong though.
I just think the Fraeye stint will kill us. Just too much to do I'm afraid. If we beat MKD then I might start to have hope but the players will probably freeze playing down at the Valley again. I hope I'm wrong.
Tuesday and Saturday are very important for CAFC, we win Tuesday and Rotherham lose to Boro. Then on Saturday Rotherham play Derby (at home) and that result we will know before we play Boro on Sunday. Lets assume that Derby win or get a point, that would put Rotherham on 33 points. We would be on 31 points going into the TV game with the players knowing a win would push us above them. MK dons are away to us and Hull on the respective days, if they lose both of those games we would be just 1 point behind them if, and its a big IF, we can beat Boro. As I said a huge 2 games coming up and if results go as above then by next Monday morning we may have a different view point on our chances of staving off relegation. Its a BIG ask, but miracles do happen....Look at Leicester last season!!
EDIT I still want RD/KM/RM and co to go, there should be no excuse for them staying, whatever happens their tenure MUST come to an end!!!
Not just Leicester escaping relegation last season but Wigan before there luck eventually ran out often escaped and one year beat absolutely everybody to stay up.
The way i'm looking at it is to first try and catch Rotherham who are 4 in front of us than worrying about how to wipe out the whole 7 points and GD defecit. We simply must beat MK Dons especially with Rotherham home to Boro that same night. Then it's Sheff Weds away who we have a good recent record against, even Karel Fraeye managed to chalk up the biggest win of his life against them!
I've already written off the Boro home game and assumed we will beat MK Dons to stand any chance so the next key game will be away at Sheff Weds. That same day MK Dons are away at Hull and Rotherham away at Ipswich so Sheff Weds away is our chance to make some ground up on MK Dons. If we can be 1 behind Rotherham and 4 behind MK Dons going up to Sheff Weds we'll still have an outside chance.
The other way to look at it is 22nd place is currently averaging a point a game. We would need to get to 47 points to get above this average which means taking 19 points from the last 11 games (6 wins, 1 draw and a budget for 4 defeats)
6 wins would have to be MK Dons, Bolton, Leeds, Sheff Weds, Birmingham and possibly Brighton. It looks difficult but we could and probably should have beaten all six of these teams the first time around so there's no reason why we can't this time around especially as Karel bloody Fraeye was in charge for these the first time around!
Small steps and lots of straws but it's still better than no hope at all.
In the same vein what have the squad got to lose against Middlesbrough... they do seem to be stuttering at the moment and although I've written that match off I reckon Riga should just get his side to go at 'Boro and hope for the best!!
Northampton v Charlton for the first time since I meet my wife( now separated, but still friends she's a Northampton lass ) could be good for bit of banter
What would do us a massive favour is if Brighton/Derby/Burnley etc have nothing to play for, as in play offs cemented and automatic out of reach. Clutching at straws a bit but could be the difference between yet another 4-0 walloping and a hard fought 1-0 win.
Comments
We won one game with, something like 36% possession against a team in poor recent form who have been leaking 3 goals in many games recently. Don't get carried away by a false dawn. We will beat Mk Dons Tuesday too as they are rubbish. We will still go down.
The teams above us all still have to play it each other, so they can't all win.
And there will no doubt be a couple of teams that get caught up in the struggle and sucked in.
There's games enough remaining to pick up enough points - but we do need to win games.
And we haven't really done that all season.
One game at a time, and see where it takes us.
Apart from SeriouslyRed that is.
A good one in the Anchor till the silly sort turned the power off --- I even offered to pay for the DJ and the food !!
The bouncers hiding in Bartrams when people were attempting to walk on the bar-- yes on the bar
Naked bar in The Royal Oak --- not a great site--- maybe why Ray left ?
Big sing song in The Valley pub with Duncan and Tom the Head walked in --- Smallwall had just been relegated and the whole pub sang the Oasis song at him
Happy days even tho the football was/is usually shit
I've a hunch that Riga may well get us to around 45 points.......only to find that 22nd spot, and safety, is a team with 46-47 points.
When it comes to it we'll probably go down but the margin will be much narrower than we thought. So narrow that deciding what sank us - in the end - will be debatable. The owner for presiding over a chaotic regime takes some blame of course. But............if it comes down to just 1-2 points?
(1) Luzon for his mad insistence on approaching every game with the same attacking plan, when 50% of the squad were injured, instead of grinding out results.....thus resulting in continual defeats rather than at least 2-3 draws?
(2) Throwing away the 2-0 lead v Bolton? (Blame: Fraeye + the players?)
(3) Conceding the last goal v Reading? (Blame: the defence/Johnson?)
(4) An individual? Tony Watt for all those matches where he continually dribbled into trouble, rather than pass or try to open up the game?
The way i'm looking at it is to first try and catch Rotherham who are 4 in front of us than worrying about how to wipe out the whole 7 points and GD defecit. We simply must beat MK Dons especially with Rotherham home to Boro that same night. Then it's Sheff Weds away who we have a good recent record against, even Karel Fraeye managed to chalk up the biggest win of his life against them!
I've already written off the Boro home game and assumed we will beat MK Dons to stand any chance so the next key game will be away at Sheff Weds. That same day MK Dons are away at Hull and Rotherham away at Ipswich so Sheff Weds away is our chance to make some ground up on MK Dons. If we can be 1 behind Rotherham and 4 behind MK Dons going up to Sheff Weds we'll still have an outside chance.
The other way to look at it is 22nd place is currently averaging a point a game. We would need to get to 47 points to get above this average which means taking 19 points from the last 11 games (6 wins, 1 draw and a budget for 4 defeats)
6 wins would have to be MK Dons, Bolton, Leeds, Sheff Weds, Birmingham and possibly Brighton. It looks difficult but we could and probably should have beaten all six of these teams the first time around so there's no reason why we can't this time around especially as Karel bloody Fraeye was in charge for these the first time around!
Small steps and lots of straws but it's still better than no hope at all.
So far Riga has done 8 points from 8 game (I'm ignoring the Hull match because he can hardly be held liable for it). We were unlucky as well not to get draws out of Bristol C and Reading at home and Preston NE away which I would have expected if we had had a less mucked up season and some stability.
Logically, then, if Riga had been around for 46 matches then we'd be looking at a final tally of at least 46 points and possibly as many as 63.
MK dons are away to us and Hull on the respective days, if they lose both of those games we would be just 1 point behind them if, and its a big IF, we can beat Boro.
As I said a huge 2 games coming up and if results go as above then by next Monday morning we may have a different view point on our chances of staving off relegation. Its a BIG ask, but miracles do happen....Look at Leicester last season!!
EDIT I still want RD/KM/RM and co to go, there should be no excuse for them staying, whatever happens their tenure MUST come to an end!!!
Beat MK Dons, Boltons & Leeds, just the four wins I can see which won't be enough.