what a day for the Twistons .. over £120,000 from the 2 big races .. I doubt if Cyrname will ever be anything like the same horse again, BUT with Nicholls, you never know
Very little of appealing e/w value in the Midlands National tomorrow so, unusually for me, I'll be backing one on the nose: PETITE POWER to win at 13/2. A course winner on heavy (as it will be, as usual, tomorrow) with bucketloads of stamina. Last run a fine 3rd (staying on well, despite being hampered by a late faller) in January's 29f Classic Chase at Warwick on Soft behind Kimberlite Candy. The form of that race is proving strong - The Conditional (Tuesday's Ultima) being the latest of 3 to win (and 1 to near-miss) next time out from 2nd~7th home that day. Runs off the same mark tomorrow and will carry just 9.07 with his regular partner a 7lb claimer. Prior to Warwick, failed by a neck to reel in the winner when staying on over a testing 30.5f at Exeter on soft. Trainer (Fergal O'Brien) won the race with another dour stayer Chase The Spud 3 years ago. Enjoy.
Cheers for the vote of confidence @CHG I'm going to go e/w after all Chief. The first 2 in the market have strong claims too and would be a pisser if he got touched off. And, having hummed and ha'd about it, at 10/1 I'll add PRIME VENTURE to the ticket. 4th in this last year off 2lb higher mark and did well for me in the Welsh GN (4th off today's mark and will effectively be level at the weights with Truckers Lodge after the latter's 3lb claim). Beaten fav himself in a 3 runner novice last time out (still a maiden after 11 chases) and has a result debuts in blinkers today. Could make the diff. Regular pilot, Festival-winner Adam Wedge, on board.
Thanks Peanuts. What are the chances of the GN going ahead? I can cash out my placings to lump on today?
Regrettably my GN crystal ball has developed a sore throat and is self-isolating. Haven't a clue @CHG, except that it seems highly probable that mass gatherings will shortly be banned for a period - difficult to see that not including 4 April so hard to see the GN being run with spectators. BHA and Aintree and others must already be discussing viability of running it behind closed doors or postponing but, personally, I don't see a postponement being viable. Some have speculated about replacing the Becher chase next Dec but I can't see that for a number of reasons. To reassure, as @PolzeathNick said on the GN thread, bets should be void and stakes refunded if it's postponed or cancelled. Personally, however confident I felt about picks in the race today or any other, especially having several ante-post GN interests at tasty prices interests (incl KC at 50/1, now 20s and could easily go off near fav if going's soft, especially if Tiger's scratched and weights rise), I'd never cash them in to bet elsewhere - I've a lot more conviction in my GN model than my nose (runny or not)
Thanks Peanuts, can’t see it happening, like you say, mass events will be culled. Good luck with today’s picks.
Cheers @CHG Thinking on a little, I'm inclined to agree. I imagine they may propose running it behind closed doors but it's only a matter of time before a jockey's diagnosed with it and the whole weighing room has to go into self isolation. What a drag. Anyway, enjoy this afternoon - I hope we're in the money.
Surprising that not much appeals each way to you in this Peanuts (but then there aren't loads of runners!). I quite like Christmas In April for the win, and Sheneededtherun for some place value - stamina a big forte and knowing how to win is a big plus.
Surprising that not much appeals each way to you in this Peanuts (but then there aren't loads of runners!). I quite like Christmas In April for the win, and Sheneededtherun for some place value - stamina a big forte and knowing how to win is a big plus.
I tend to have to do it thru gritted teeth to back anything e/w that's <16/1 (especially in these sad days of 1/5 odds generally) but that's me. Both of mine e/w in the end as I got on before they'd contracted this morning - what the hell. Just kick myself if either got touched off and they'll hopefully both be in the mix. You had Regal Flow (trumping my Milansbar) a couple of years back if memory serves. Good luck with yours today @PaddyP17 Thought long and hard about your mare today. Can't recall what swung me agin (probably the even bigger rise in the handicap than Petite Power's had but Regal Flow had done likewise I think) - will no doubt regret it.
Very sorry @CHG, Disappointing, to say the least - fair play to the winner but gutted both mine bombed as badly. Nice pick for a place by @PaddyP17 - well done mate.
Very sorry @CHG, Disappointing, to say the least - fair play to the winner but gutted both mine bombed as badly. Nice pick for a place by @PaddyP17 - well done mate.
Think most places would have offered four places, so good news if anyone was on.
Two years ago one of my horses Oxford Blu ran at the Cheltenham Festival. A dream come true that was short lived after nearly getting brought down and taken out of the race at the second hurdle. Since that day he has completely lost his form and we have tried different distances, jockeys, headgear and even an all weather flat race. Every jockey has reported back the same thing 'travels well and feels a quality horse but when asked to go and win the race he simply downs tools and gives up but then when all horses have passed him he picks up and runs on' Olly Murphy has said a lot of juvenile horses lose form in second year so it could be that or as is mainly believed its all in the horses head. Tomorrow he runs at Market Rasen 2.50 after a complete break of nearly 10 months even having a holiday away from the stables. He is spot on fitness wise and a massive 29lbs well in on old form so after tomorrow's race we will know he was absolutely thrown in and should of cleaned up with the bookies or he just no longer wants to race. No matter what happens tomorrow the horse is all that matters so if he shows nothing a nice retirement beckons but he is showing all his zest at home and is still a very young horse. Anyway enough waffle just thought I'd keep you all updated after the excitement of the Festival two years ago and will just add I will not be backing him as I just haven't a clue how he will run.
Two years ago one of my horses Oxford Blu ran at the Cheltenham Festival. A dream come true that was short lived after nearly getting brought down and taken out of the race at the second hurdle. Since that day he has completely lost his form and we have tried different distances, jockeys, headgear and even an all weather flat race. Every jockey has reported back the same thing 'travels well and feels a quality horse but when asked to go and win the race he simply downs tools and gives up but then when all horses have passed him he picks up and runs on' Olly Murphy has said a lot of juvenile horses lose form in second year so it could be that or as is mainly believed its all in the horses head. Tomorrow he runs at Market Rasen 2.50 after a complete break of nearly 10 months even having a holiday away from the stables. He is spot on fitness wise and a massive 29lbs well in on old form so after tomorrow's race we will know he was absolutely thrown in and should of cleaned up with the bookies or he just no longer wants to race. No matter what happens tomorrow the horse is all that matters so if he shows nothing a nice retirement beckons but he is showing all his zest at home and is still a very young horse. Anyway enough waffle just thought I'd keep you all updated after the excitement of the Festival two years ago and will just add I will not be backing him as I just haven't a clue how he will run.
Two years ago one of my horses Oxford Blu ran at the Cheltenham Festival. A dream come true that was short lived after nearly getting brought down and taken out of the race at the second hurdle. Since that day he has completely lost his form and we have tried different distances, jockeys, headgear and even an all weather flat race. Every jockey has reported back the same thing 'travels well and feels a quality horse but when asked to go and win the race he simply downs tools and gives up but then when all horses have passed him he picks up and runs on' Olly Murphy has said a lot of juvenile horses lose form in second year so it could be that or as is mainly believed its all in the horses head. Tomorrow he runs at Market Rasen 2.50 after a complete break of nearly 10 months even having a holiday away from the stables. He is spot on fitness wise and a massive 29lbs well in on old form so after tomorrow's race we will know he was absolutely thrown in and should of cleaned up with the bookies or he just no longer wants to race. No matter what happens tomorrow the horse is all that matters so if he shows nothing a nice retirement beckons but he is showing all his zest at home and is still a very young horse. Anyway enough waffle just thought I'd keep you all updated after the excitement of the Festival two years ago and will just add I will not be backing him as I just haven't a clue how he will run.
Fingers crossed for you and Oxford Blu @killer kish All the best.
Yes iaitch he was kept wide throughout which no doubt didn’t help.After the race Richard Johnson said it was too soft for him and should only run on good to soft or better and in 4-6 weeks time when ground better go for 2m4f or even 2m6f 0-100 race at somewhere like Stratford.He also added he did have some of his old sparkle back and would expect him to win a couple races through the summer months
Yes iaitch he was kept wide throughout which no doubt didn’t help.After the race Richard Johnson said it was too soft for him and should only run on good to soft or better and in 4-6 weeks time when ground better go for 2m4f or even 2m6f 0-100 race at somewhere like Stratford.He also added he did have some of his old sparkle back and would expect him to win a couple races through the summer months
Thanks for the news @killer kish Interesting - I thought he looked threatening coming into the straight and he just seemed to be outpaced rather than in any way not keen on the task. Glad Dickie's given you a steer on ground and that you're giving him another go - I am an old softy, however. Best of luck.
Comments
A course winner on heavy (as it will be, as usual, tomorrow) with bucketloads of stamina. Last run a fine 3rd (staying on well, despite being hampered by a late faller) in January's 29f Classic Chase at Warwick on Soft behind Kimberlite Candy. The form of that race is proving strong - The Conditional (Tuesday's Ultima) being the latest of 3 to win (and 1 to near-miss) next time out from 2nd~7th home that day. Runs off the same mark tomorrow and will carry just 9.07 with his regular partner a 7lb claimer.
Prior to Warwick, failed by a neck to reel in the winner when staying on over a testing 30.5f at Exeter on soft.
Trainer (Fergal O'Brien) won the race with another dour stayer Chase The Spud 3 years ago.
Enjoy.
I'm going to go e/w after all Chief. The first 2 in the market have strong claims too and would be a pisser if he got touched off.
And, having hummed and ha'd about it, at 10/1 I'll add PRIME VENTURE to the ticket. 4th in this last year off 2lb higher mark and did well for me in the Welsh GN (4th off today's mark and will effectively be level at the weights with Truckers Lodge after the latter's 3lb claim).
Beaten fav himself in a 3 runner novice last time out (still a maiden after 11 chases) and has a result debuts in blinkers today. Could make the diff. Regular pilot, Festival-winner Adam Wedge, on board.
Haven't a clue @CHG, except that it seems highly probable that mass gatherings will shortly be banned for a period - difficult to see that not including 4 April so hard to see the GN being run with spectators.
BHA and Aintree and others must already be discussing viability of running it behind closed doors or postponing but, personally, I don't see a postponement being viable. Some have speculated about replacing the Becher chase next Dec but I can't see that for a number of reasons.
To reassure, as @PolzeathNick said on the GN thread, bets should be void and stakes refunded if it's postponed or cancelled.
Personally, however confident I felt about picks in the race today or any other, especially having several ante-post GN interests at tasty prices interests (incl KC at 50/1, now 20s and could easily go off near fav if going's soft, especially if Tiger's scratched and weights rise), I'd never cash them in to bet elsewhere - I've a lot more conviction in my GN model than my nose (runny or not)
Thinking on a little, I'm inclined to agree.
I imagine they may propose running it behind closed doors but it's only a matter of time before a jockey's diagnosed with it and the whole weighing room has to go into self isolation.
What a drag.
Anyway, enjoy this afternoon - I hope we're in the money.
Both of mine e/w in the end as I got on before they'd contracted this morning - what the hell. Just kick myself if either got touched off and they'll hopefully both be in the mix.
You had Regal Flow (trumping my Milansbar) a couple of years back if memory serves.
Good luck with yours today @PaddyP17 Thought long and hard about your mare today. Can't recall what swung me agin (probably the even bigger rise in the handicap than Petite Power's had but Regal Flow had done likewise I think) - will no doubt regret it.
What a twat
Disappointing, to say the least - fair play to the winner but gutted both mine bombed as badly.
Nice pick for a place by @PaddyP17 - well done mate.
All the best.
Was it the same type of performance or was he a bit more interested? You going to persevere or give him his retirement?
Interesting - I thought he looked threatening coming into the straight and he just seemed to be outpaced rather than in any way not keen on the task.
Glad Dickie's given you a steer on ground and that you're giving him another go - I am an old softy, however.
Best of luck.