Sport of Kings discussion thread

Covered End

Addickted2TheReds said:

Addickted2TheReds said:

Going to Lingfield tomorrow - any tips?

Nothing? Really?

After my two failed tips, none of you are willing to help me?

Bastards.

:-)

We went to Ascot yesterday and I lost all 6, so no tips from me.

palarsehater

Cue card 2nd to Bristol de mai by 57 lengths! Surely time to retire cue card

Addickted2TheReds

Backed 3 horses, all 3 came second!

Fuck it!

bobmunro

bobmunro said:

Total Recall - Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) - 2 December.

My source quotes Mullins: "If the English handicapper doesn't go too hard on him he'll beat these senseless. Will go off 3/1"

Currently 8/1


Also - Samcro - Ballymore Novices Hurdle (formerly Neptune) at Cheltenham. Currently 5/1 so value sort of gone (I'm on at bigger thankfully) - it's a machine and "a class apart".

Samcro very impressive yesterday at Navan - now as low as 2/1 for the Ballymore.

kinveachyaddick

bobmunro said:

bobmunro said:

Total Recall - Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) - 2 December.

My source quotes Mullins: "If the English handicapper doesn't go too hard on him he'll beat these senseless. Will go off 3/1"

Currently 8/1


Also - Samcro - Ballymore Novices Hurdle (formerly Neptune) at Cheltenham. Currently 5/1 so value sort of gone (I'm on at bigger thankfully) - it's a machine and "a class apart".

Samcro very impressive yesterday at Navan - now as low as 2/1 for the Ballymore.

Backed Total Recall following your original post so looking forward to Saturday

palarsehater

may be just me but coneygree seems huge at 16/1

PeanutsMolloy

palarsehater said:

may be just me but coneygree seems huge at 16/1

Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.

Key stats:

• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o

• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+

• 0 or 1 run since June

• Not Irish-trained

• Rated 145+

Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:

AMERICAN 6/1 and
CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1

biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1

PolzeathNick

Make no mistake, Samcro is a very very special horse.

alan dugdale

Peanuts is back ! Hope you’re sticking around for the Becher in a couple of weeks ?!

PeanutsMolloy

alan dugdale said:

Peanuts is back ! Hope you’re sticking around for the Becher in a couple of weeks ?!

Cheers Alan. Will definitely give it a lash this year.

bobmunro

PeanutsMolloy said:

alan dugdale said:

Peanuts is back ! Hope you’re sticking around for the Becher in a couple of weeks ?!

Cheers Alan. Will definitely give it a lash this year.

Good man, Peanuts. Good to see you back and hope you're well.

PaddyP17

PeanutsMolloy said:

alan dugdale said:

Peanuts is back ! Hope you’re sticking around for the Becher in a couple of weeks ?!

Cheers Alan. Will definitely give it a lash this year.

Good to see you back mate!

But just in case, can we have your National tips for the next ten years?

northstandsteve

Anna mix out for season

bobmunro

northstandsteve said:

Anna mix out for season

Sh*t!!

PaddyP17

PeanutsMolloy said:

palarsehater said:

may be just me but coneygree seems huge at 16/1

Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.

Key stats:

• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o

• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+

• 0 or 1 run since June

• Not Irish-trained

• Rated 145+

Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:

AMERICAN 6/1 and
CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1

biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1

Completely agree. I would however much rather Cogry than Singlefarmpayment, who is 3x the odds and beat him on their last run fairly comfortably. He's quite well treated and at 20/1 is more than entitled to outrun his odds.

I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.

PeanutsMolloy

PaddyP17 said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

palarsehater said:

may be just me but coneygree seems huge at 16/1

Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.

Key stats:

• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o

• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+

• 0 or 1 run since June

• Not Irish-trained

• Rated 145+

Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:

AMERICAN 6/1 and
CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1

biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1

Completely agree. I would however much rather Cogry than Singlefarmpayment, who is 3x the odds and beat him on their last run fairly comfortably. He's quite well treated and at 20/1 is more than entitled to outrun his odds.

I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.

Cheers Chief. Given the prices, it was a choice for me between American and Singlefarmpayment, both being top of the stats-list with Carole's Destrier. Like you, I have reservations about SFP so the former for me.

I do want a third runner on my slip however and, while very much respecting Cogry (I agree a nice e/w proposition at 20s), at the prices my final selection is: MISSED APPROACH (33/1)

Also looks well-in vs SFP (form line via Arpege d'Alene) and had one of the Irish fancies, A Genie In A Bottle (best price 10/1), well behind at the Festival at level weights (MA receives 7lbs on Sat). Course winner, albeit over the floppies. Dickie on board, looking for back-to-back wins - perfect pilot for MA's usual, prominent running-style. In fact, 10 of past 11 winners raced handy - as typically does American but not SFP.

Cogry has a few lbs in hand of him on Scot Nat form but the step back in trip should suit my fella, who ticks all the stats for the winning-profile bar one. Of course, we're looking at e/w propostions here (so let's hope both oblige) and, while the winners are typically 10/1 or shorter (though that's not a relevant stat for me), unsurprisingly for a big staying handicap chase, long shots often go well in this: 25/1+ runners making the frame in 9 of the last 11 Hennessys (and, for me, it shall forever be known as such) - the SPs of the 3 behind Native River last time were 25, 50, 33/1.

Fingers crossed.

EDIT: 21 declared - only once has there been a larger field in 50+ years.

PolzeathNick

If you can get on William Hill are going SEVEN places for the Hennessey.

PaddyP17

PeanutsMolloy said:

PaddyP17 said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

palarsehater said:

may be just me but coneygree seems huge at 16/1

Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.

Key stats:

• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o

• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+

• 0 or 1 run since June

• Not Irish-trained

• Rated 145+

Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:

AMERICAN 6/1 and
CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1

biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1

Completely agree. I would however much rather Cogry than Singlefarmpayment, who is 3x the odds and beat him on their last run fairly comfortably. He's quite well treated and at 20/1 is more than entitled to outrun his odds.

I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.

Cheers Chief. Given the prices, it was a choice for me between American and Singlefarmpayment, both being top of the stats-list with Carole's Destrier. Like you, I have reservations about SFP so the former for me.

I do want a third runner on my slip however and, while very much respecting Cogry (I agree a nice e/w proposition at 20s), at the prices my final selection is: MISSED APPROACH (33/1)

Also looks well-in vs SFP (form line via Arpege d'Alene) and had one of the Irish fancies, A Genie In A Bottle (best price 10/1), well behind at the Festival at level weights (MA receives 7lbs on Sat). Course winner, albeit over the floppies. Dickie on board, looking for back-to-back wins - perfect pilot for MA's usual, prominent running-style. In fact, 10 of past 11 winners raced handy - as typically does American but not SFP.

Cogry has a few lbs in hand of him on Scot Nat form but the step back in trip should suit my fella, who ticks all the stats for the winning-profile bar one. Of course, we're looking at e/w propostions here (so let's hope both oblige) and, while the winners are typically 10/1 or shorter (though that's not a relevant stat for me), unsurprisingly for a big staying handicap chase, long shots often go well in this: 25/1+ runners making the frame in 9 of the last 11 Hennessys (and, for me, it shall forever be known as such) - the SPs of the 3 behind Native River last time were 25, 50, 33/1.

Fingers crossed.

EDIT: 21 declared - only once has there been a larger field in 50+ years.

I am waiting for Ben Linfoot or Hugh Taylor or someone to tip up Missed Approach. Another that was on the list, but then again I would say me and my team consider win purposes more than you!

smiffyboy

Peanuts great to have you back Sir.

PeanutsMolloy

Cheers smiffy, too kind.
Just having a little pre-Aintree warm-up. Which steed's carrying your shilling on Saturday?

BTW - great tip re Apples Shakira - sorely tempted (and of course now wish I'd succumbed) but long-since gave up on anything under 26f. Hope she brings home the bacon for you.

PeanutsMolloy

First-time blinkers for Missed Approach on Saturday (ditto Potters Legend and Southfield Royale). Greatrex put cheek pieces on him first-time for his close 2nd in the Festival 4-miler.

PaddyP17

Something amiss with Thistlecrack there. And Yanworth was always overrated IMO.

If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)

Addickted2TheReds

PaddyP17 said:

Something amiss with Thistlecrack there. And Yanworth was always overrated IMO.

If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)

Mate had 20 quid on beer goggles at 50s. Beers on him tonight.

guinnessaddick

Addickted2TheReds said:

PaddyP17 said:

Something amiss with Thistlecrack there. And Yanworth was always overrated IMO.

If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)

Mate had 20 quid on beer goggles at 50s. Beers on him tonight.

https://twitter.com/kom_ggracing/status/936510957672718337

smiffyboy

Total Recall !!!!!!!!!!!! nice one @bobmunro great finish

kinveachyaddick

@bobmunro you legend!

paulbaconsarnie

Thanks @bobmunro

guinnessaddick

Cheers @bobmunro backed @ 8/1

PeanutsMolloy

Nice one Bob. Great win.

smiffyboy

Bosh