It's a bit of double-edged sword. In some ways, we want Blackpool to slip into the pack, but we don't want to be playing them in the last game if there is something on it for both teams. The thought of Ricardo Fuller sending us down is unthinkable (except that I have thought it).
We will secure 'safety' with a late goal at the Valley against Watford, and then everyone can relax for the trip to Blackpool. You heard it here first.
In reality, I still maintain that we have never really been in serious danger of going down this year. Even when in the drop zone we've always had winnable home games in hand. I actually think the sad fact is that our cup run was CP's downfall - if we had kept up on games played we probably wouldn't have been in the bottom 3 at any point, we wouldn't have had the disappointment at Sheff U, and RD might not have got itchy.
This is my prediction for the remaining games of the season, from which I conclude it will be Blackpool, Barnsley and Yeovil for the drop with the mighty CAFC safe in 19th place. (If I get all these right, I'll be buying a lottery ticket the next day.)
Barnsleycurrent points 36 A Bolton result L new points 36 A Charlton L 36 H Leeds D 37 A Derby L 37 A Middlesborough L 37 H QPR W final points 40
Birmingham 43 A Nottm Forest L 43 H Blackburn W 46 H Leeds W 49 H Wigan D 50 A Bolton L 50
Blackpool 42 A Leeds L 42 H Burnley L 42 A Brighton L 42 A Wigan L 42 H Charlton D 43
Charlton 41 A Brighton L 41 H Barnsley W 44 H Bolton D 45 A Sheffield Wednesday L 45 H Blackburn D 46 H Watford D 47 A Blackpool D 48
Doncaster 43 A Ipswich L 43 H Derby L 43 A Millwall D 44 H Reading L 44 A Leicester L 44
Huddersfield 46 A Derby L 46 H Brighton W 49 A Yeovil L 49 H Leicester L 49 A Watford D 50
Leeds 47 H Blackpool W 50 A Barnsley D 51 H Nottm Forest D 52 A Birmingham L 52 H Derby L 52
Millwall 39 H Watford W 42 A Middlesborough D 43 H Doncaster D 44 A QPR D 45 H Bournemouth L 45
Yeovil 35 H Bournemouth L 35 A Blackburn D 36 H Huddersfield W 39 A Brighton L 39 H Middlesborough L 39
Charlton 41 A Brighton L 41 H Barnsley L 41 H Bolton W 44 A Sheffield Wednesday L 44 H Blackburn D 45 H Watford D 46 A Blackpool L 46
Even if we manage this sorry (ultra pessimsitic) return – I think Blackpool will have the same points as us and Millwall, Doncaster, Barnsley and Yeovil will finish below us. Basically – 2 wins is going to do it looking at the fixtures. A win against Barnsley and that will probably do it too.
It's a bit of double-edged sword. In some ways, we want Blackpool to slip into the pack, but we don't want to be playing them in the last game if there is something on it for both teams. The thought of Ricardo Fuller sending us down is unthinkable (except that I have thought it).
We will secure 'safety' with a late goal at the Valley against Watford, and then everyone can relax for the trip to Blackpool. You heard it here first.
In reality, I still maintain that we have never really been in serious danger of going down this year. Even when in the drop zone we've always had winnable home games in hand. I actually think the sad fact is that our cup run was CP's downfall - if we had kept up on games played we probably wouldn't have been in the bottom 3 at any point, we wouldn't have had the disappointment at Sheff U, and RD might not have got itchy.
If anything Sheffield U brought forward The inevitable departure of CP, he did not buy into RD's vision as a lot on here don't and having bought 6 clubs RD was never going to change the vision. Not saying it was right or wrong just inevitable
Sportsclubstats.com suggests our religion chance has shrunk to 10% down from 45%. It will drop further to 3% if we beat Barnsley so really hoping we don't need anything from the Blackpool game.
This is my prediction for the remaining games of the season, from which I conclude it will be Blackpool, Barnsley and Yeovil for the drop with the mighty CAFC safe in 19th place. (If I get all these right, I'll be buying a lottery ticket the next day.)
19th? We'll finish 15th. You heard it here first. ;-)
teams in most danger millwall- despite recent back to back wins they have been lacking all season and regressed under holloway pretty much. yeovil- have lost key fixtures and have too many teams to catch up. blackpool- they may still be ahead of us but now only by one point and even lost to yeovil. 2 wins in over 20 games and they should count themselves lucky they had the run at the start of the season. teams in a bit less danger barnsley- improving in form and performances. wilson has made them better and they have a game in hand. within touching distance of us and blackpool birmingham- not going into admin now but they are still in poor form however they should be fine. charlton- improved form however the side lacks goals but the games in hand should mean we creep over the line. leeds- no more threat of admin as well but their form is very poor and only just beat millwall, other than that no wins doncaster- sucked back in it due to some defeats but they have improved due to faith in dickov.
Just seen the Scum's remaining fixtures. Its quite possible they won't get another point all season. Agree with AddicksAddict prediction of 48 points for us.
I may be wrong, but now Leeds have got the football league backing for their new chairman/owner, he will pay the wages and I think they will start winning. This is good news as they have to play Blackpool, Barnsley and Birmingham. Lets hope they win all three.
dectech.co.uk/football_sites/football/seasonend_overall.php This site has us surviving by five points and has moved us up to 50 - think it suggested 49 a few games back? Millwall Doncater and Blackpool to finish within two points of each other
I think a lot of you are deluded if you think that any teams have an easier or harder run it than any other team. Donny may have Leicester to play but by then they will have wrapped up the Championship and we all saw what happened on tues night after they had wrapped up promotion. Many other teams like B'mouth, Ipswich & Wigan may not be able to get into the play offs by then & so wont have anything to play for & so will take their foot off the gas.
Sportsclubstats.com suggests our religion chance has shrunk to 10% down from 45%. It will drop further to 3% if we beat Barnsley so really hoping we don't need anything from the Blackpool game.
Oddschecker now has us at 6th favourites - now above Donny and Blackpool at 7-1 - bookies know best ! ALways thought Blackpool would be the ones to go - they look doomed to me. Fairly sure that the Pool away game will be a dead game (for us!)
I think it boils down to this. Beat Barnsley and it should be comfortable-ish. Lose to Barnsley and it is likely to go down to the last game. Draw and it all depends a lot on how everyone else performs
If we win our two games in hand (Barnsley and Watford respectively ) I make that 2 wins and a draw fom the remaining 5 to be mathematically safe should millwall win EVERY game remaining! Very possible I say!
Comments
In reality, I still maintain that we have never really been in serious danger of going down this year. Even when in the drop zone we've always had winnable home games in hand. I actually think the sad fact is that our cup run was CP's downfall - if we had kept up on games played we probably wouldn't have been in the bottom 3 at any point, we wouldn't have had the disappointment at Sheff U, and RD might not have got itchy.
Barnsley current points 36
A Bolton result L new points 36
A Charlton L 36
H Leeds D 37
A Derby L 37
A Middlesborough L 37
H QPR W final points 40
Birmingham 43
A Nottm Forest L 43
H Blackburn W 46
H Leeds W 49
H Wigan D 50
A Bolton L 50
Blackpool 42
A Leeds L 42
H Burnley L 42
A Brighton L 42
A Wigan L 42
H Charlton D 43
Charlton 41
A Brighton L 41
H Barnsley W 44
H Bolton D 45
A Sheffield Wednesday L 45
H Blackburn D 46
H Watford D 47
A Blackpool D 48
Doncaster 43
A Ipswich L 43
H Derby L 43
A Millwall D 44
H Reading L 44
A Leicester L 44
Huddersfield 46
A Derby L 46
H Brighton W 49
A Yeovil L 49
H Leicester L 49
A Watford D 50
Leeds 47
H Blackpool W 50
A Barnsley D 51
H Nottm Forest D 52
A Birmingham L 52
H Derby L 52
Millwall 39
H Watford W 42
A Middlesborough D 43
H Doncaster D 44
A QPR D 45
H Bournemouth L 45
Yeovil 35
H Bournemouth L 35
A Blackburn D 36
H Huddersfield W 39
A Brighton L 39
H Middlesborough L 39
Final totals
Leeds 52
Birmingham 50
Huddersfield 50
Charlton 48
Millwall 45
Doncaster 44
Blackpool 43
Barnsley 40
Yeovil 39
If I've put two different results for any of the head-to-head games, would appreciate a heads up.
A Brighton L 41
H Barnsley L 41
H Bolton W 44
A Sheffield Wednesday L 44
H Blackburn D 45
H Watford D 46
A Blackpool L 46
Even if we manage this sorry (ultra pessimsitic) return – I think Blackpool will have the same points as us and Millwall, Doncaster, Barnsley and Yeovil will finish below us. Basically – 2 wins is going to do it looking at the fixtures. A win against Barnsley and that will probably do it too.
3 wins and we will definitely be safe
Imagine going into the last game .. We win Blackpool go down, we lose Millwall go down ... Jose Riga's orange army?
It will drop further to 3% if we beat Barnsley so really hoping we don't need anything from the Blackpool game.
millwall- despite recent back to back wins they have been lacking all season and regressed under holloway pretty much.
yeovil- have lost key fixtures and have too many teams to catch up.
blackpool- they may still be ahead of us but now only by one point and even lost to yeovil. 2 wins in over 20 games and they should count themselves lucky they had the run at the start of the season.
teams in a bit less danger
barnsley- improving in form and performances. wilson has made them better and they have a game in hand. within touching distance of us and blackpool
birmingham- not going into admin now but they are still in poor form however they should be fine.
charlton- improved form however the side lacks goals but the games in hand should mean we creep over the line.
leeds- no more threat of admin as well but their form is very poor and only just beat millwall, other than that no wins
doncaster- sucked back in it due to some defeats but they have improved due to faith in dickov.
This site has us surviving by five points and has moved us up to 50 - think it suggested 49 a few games back?
Millwall Doncater and Blackpool to finish within two points of each other
ALways thought Blackpool would be the ones to go - they look doomed to me.
Fairly sure that the Pool away game will be a dead game (for us!)
Blackpool will go down with either Barnsley or Millwank
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26972513