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Survival Time - Can Charlton Stay Up?

shirty5shirty5
edited March 2014 in General Charlton
A vital three points last night as seen us come out of the bottom 3. Hopefully this will be the last time this season that we will fill one of the relegation spots, but I fear that we may see a few more ups and downs before 3 o’clock on the first Saturday in May.

Personally I see it being 3 from 4 (Us, Millwall, Yeovil, Barnsley) unless a Doncaster, Blackpool, Bolton or Birmingham have a disastrous run. Will Leeds or Birmingham go into administration before the end? I doubt it, but you never know.

Table:

20. Doncaster. Played 36. Points 37. GD: Minus 22
21. Charlton. Played 33. Points 32. GD: Minus 16
22. Millwall. Played 36. Points 32. GD: Minus 30
23. Yeovil. Played 36. Points 30. GD: Minus 22
24. Barnsley. Played 35. Points 29. GD: Minus 31

Remaining Fixtures

Charlton

Burnley (H) 22/3
Nottm Forest (A) 25/3
Derby (A) 29/3
Leeds (A) 1st of April
Reading (H) 5/4
Yeovil (H) 8/4
Brighton (A) 12/4
Barnsley (H) 15/4
Bolton (H) 19/4
Sheff Wed (A) 21/4
Blackburn (H) 26/4
Watford (H) 29/4
Blackpool (A) 3/5


Thirteen games to go (With 2/3 games in hand), this season it looks likely that 50 points would be more than enough to guarantee Championship football next season. 47 points may be the cut off point, so fifteen to eighteen points could suffice, so what games would these points come from?

Seven games at home: 2 six pointers against Yeovil and Barnsley, games we cannot afford to lose. 2 tough games against promotion chasers in Burnley and Reading, where I would be happy with a point from each and then the last 3 home games of the season against (Bolton, Blackburn and Watford) very possibly sides who will hopefully be thinking more about trips to Tenerife than South East London.

Six games away: Personally I’m always happy with a point from every game away from home, but we can’t just be relying on our Home form, so at least a couple of away wins, and a couple of draws would be fantastic. The next 3 away games are very tough, but all 3 sides have had a wobble recently. Long may that continue. Brighton are pushing for the play offs, so another tough one and then the last 2 away games. With all due respect Sheffield Wed and Blackpool are games we should be looking to get maximum points from.



Millwall

Leeds (A) 22/4
Birmingham (H) 25/4
Blackburn (H) 29/4
Nottm Forest (A) 5/4
Wigan (A) 8/4
Watford (H) 12/4
Middlesboro (A) 19/4
Doncaster (H) 21/4
QPR (A) 26/4
Bournemouth (H) 3/5

Can Millwall win 5/6 of the remaining ten games left? Possibly, as they have a run of home games that they will believe they can get maximum points from, but if they don’t pick up a win in the next 2 home games, then the natives will get restless and could turn on the players and Holloway. Also their goal difference is a massive factor against them and no six pointers as well.

They could be out of the bottom 3 by the end of the month, so for us we cannot panic, as Millwall have some tough games in their last 7 games. Maybe a big Frenchman could help us out at the beginning of May.

Yeovil

Bolton (H) 22/3
Leicester (A) 25/3
Barnsley (H) 29/3
Blackpool (A) 5/4
Charlton (A) 8/4
Bournemouth (H) 12/4
Blackburn (A) 18/4
Huddersfield (H) 21/4
Brighton (A) 26/4
Middlesboro (H) 3/5

The side I fear the most in the bottom 3. No one gave them a chance this season of surviving, and they are playing without any fear of getting results against anyone. 5 at home, 5 away. Like Millwall they will fancy to pick up maximum points from their remaining home games (including a six pointer against Barnsley). Away from home they have tough trips to Leicester and Reading but as shown with points at Wigan and Reading recently they don’t fear anyone.

Their goal difference is not too bad, but can they pick up 17/20 points in the remaining 10 fixtures? Time will tell.

Barnsley

Bournemouth (H) 22/3
Reading (A) 25/3
Yeovil (A) 29/3
Brighton (H) 5/4
Burnley (H) 8/4
Bolton (A) 12/4
Charlton (A) 15/4
Leeds (H) 19/4
Derby (A) 21/4
Middlesboro (A) 26/4
QPR (H) 3/5

Every season you think Barnsley will relegated, but it never happens and they always survive in the 2nd flight of English football (Last relegation from the 2nd tier in 2002) Maybe the law of averages will go against this time, and with 5 home games, 6 away from home they have it all to do. They will need to get 18/21 points in the remaining fixtures, and on paper this looks a tough ask, but they have 2 away six pointers, plus games at home that will fancy their chances of picking up points.

Will this be the year for Barnsley to drop?

Conclusion

Hopefully we can go up to a wet and windy Blackpool in May, with our championship place secure for another season, but I fear we are going to need something at Bloomfield Road. Charlton have had plenty of practise of survival on the last day of the season. 82/83 at home to Bolton, 78/79 at home to Oldham, 77/78 away to Orient to mention a few. Let’s all pray and hope it’s not a repeat of our trip to Blackpool on 29th April 1972.
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Comments

  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    The key is going to be not losing in crunch home games against Yeovil and Barnsley - hopefully winning one of them. Can't see Millwall or Yeovil pickiing up more than 11 points and I think Barnsley are gone. If we are outside the bottom 3 after the Leeds game, I don't think it will get that squeaky!
  • AdamAddickAdamAddick
    the current championship form table if anyone wants to have a look

    http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-championship
  • Chris_from_SidcupChris_from_Sidcup
    "Personally I see it being 3 from 4 (Us, Millwall, Yeovil, Barnsley) unless a Doncaster, Blackpool, Bolton or Birmingham have a disastrous run. Will Leeds or Birmingham go into administration before the end? I doubt it, but you never know"


    Blackpool. 1 win in 19 games. Once you're stuck in a rut it's hard to get out.
  • Chris_from_SidcupChris_from_Sidcup
    Also Birmingham and Doncaster are only 5 points ahead of the bottom 3. It hardly needs a disastrous run for either of them to get sucked back in.
  • jackmasterflashjackmasterflash
    4 wins against barnsley, yeovil, leeds, blackpool and 4 draws against nottm forest, watford, sheff wed and bolton. we will probably do better than that htough and could well get a win agaisnt nottingham forest.
  • paulsturgesspaulsturgess
    Masterflash you are deluded mate!

    Agree with Muttley, if we are in touching distance of the safety zone after Leeds away / Reading home, I might start to believe we can get out of it.
  • c4fcdenmarkc4fcdenmark
    Yes we can.
  • adrianadrian
    I don't think Birmingham will get more than 10 points in their remaining fixtures.
    Won't be enough. They should go down with Yeovil and Barnsley.
    For your information, Barnsley have graced the second tier more than any other team (72 seasons),
    ahead of Leicester (61), Hull (55), Grimsby (52), Fulham (50).
    For Charlton, next season will be our 43rd.
  • GretnaGreenAddickGretnaGreenAddick
    I think we have enough to stay up, my picks for the drop would be Barnsley, Blackpool and either Yeovil or Millwall, hopefully Millwall obviously.
  • Imnot AthleticImnot Athletic
    If 47 is the target then, with 32 points from 33 games its no great stetch to assume 47 from 46. I think we'll be ok

    In terms of who goes, all the B's for me, Barnsley, Blackpool and Birmingham. Barnsely have too much to do and Blackpool and Birmingham are in freefall. I think Yeovil will get out of it not sure about the spanners.

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  • PL54PL54
    We will suffer some losses and disappointment but we will stay up.
  • stonemusestonemuse
    I've been saying all season that we will stay up ... and I am still sure we will
  • WheresmeticketWheresmeticket
    AdamAddick said:

    the current championship form table if anyone wants to have a look

    http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-championship

    Blimey, hard to believe we are 12th in the form table...amazing what a couple of draws and a win can do.
  • Athletico CharltonAthletico Charlton
    Not enough goals. If we don't bring in anyone else we will go down.

    We may have got 5 points from 3 games but they were against relatively easier teams.

    Yeovil are in reasonable form and have the easiest run in, Millwall with Fred, Jackson, big Dutch bloke will come good sadly.

    We would need to stay above Barnsley and hope Brum and Blackpool continue to lose each game.
  • milnemilne
    There are signs for optimism in SE7
  • covered_end_juniorcovered_end_junior
    We'll stay up, Barnsley Millwall and one other to go and not necessarily Yeovil. Can still see Blackpool getting pulled into the mix but Donny will be fine if Sharp stays fit.
  • Mendonca In AsdasMendonca In Asdas
    In answer to the original question, I blooming hope so , I really hope we don't go back to league 1 , I'm still thinking 6 more wins, Barnsley and Yeovil at home are massive, sorry OP.
  • walshiesleftfootwalshiesleftfoot
    If we can get a bonus win from are next 3 games I think that will be good enough . Even a couple of draws might be ok . We did it against Q.P.R so why not again
  • Mendonca In AsdasMendonca In Asdas
    adrian said:

    I don't think Birmingham will get more than 10 points in their remaining fixtures.
    Won't be enough. They should go down with Yeovil and Barnsley.
    For your information, Barnsley have graced the second tier more than any other team (72 seasons),
    ahead of Leicester (61), Hull (55), Grimsby (52), Fulham (50).
    For Charlton, next season will be our 43rd.

    Thanks for the info Adrian, just out of interest, how many seasons have we spent in the 3rd tier of English football?

  • creepyaddickcreepyaddick
    I think Yeovil will have a last day reprieve and stay up and Millwall, Barnsley and Brum will go
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  • chester_conradchester_conrad
    We have the wendies to play so we might as well add those 3 points to our total now.
  • mid_life_crisismid_life_crisis
    Forget 50 points, the 4th bottom team will definitely not need that many.
    Could be as low as 45 I reckon.
    Anyhow, it's 4 wins needed, which is no foregone conclusion.
    It's gonna be the home form which will be key, as the aways look very tough.
    A pessimist by nature but, after the last 2 results, I say we will survive.
  • Mendonca In AsdasMendonca In Asdas
    mid_life_crisis said:

    Forget 50 points, the 4th bottom team will definitely not need that many.
    Could be as low as 45 I reckon.
    Anyhow, it's 4 wins needed, which is no foregone conclusion.
    It's gonna be the home form which will be key, as the aways look very tough.
    A pessimist by nature but, after the last 2 results, I say we will survive.

    Sounds like Glovepup or whoever looks after the music at the Valley needs to get a bit of Gloria Gaynor ringing through the tannoys on Saturday?
  • operationpigoperationpig
    chester_conrad said:

    We have the wendies to play so we might as well add those 3 points to our total now.

    Lets not get too cocky, had it not been for your last minute goals against QPR and Bournemouth then things would've looked really bleak.

    One thing for sure, we'll not play as bad as we did in the cup and we'll have a point to prove now against you boys in what would normally be a meaningless game.

    Personally I think the bottom three will be the ones to go but there is always some sort of twist.

  • adrianadrian
    Mendonca In Asdas said:

    adrian said:

    I don't think Birmingham will get more than 10 points in their remaining fixtures.
    Won't be enough. They should go down with Yeovil and Barnsley.
    For your information, Barnsley have graced the second tier more than any other team (72 seasons),
    ahead of Leicester (61), Hull (55), Grimsby (52), Fulham (50).
    For Charlton, next season will be our 43rd.

    Thanks for the info Adrian, just out of interest, how many seasons have we spent in the 3rd tier of English football?
    17
  • jackmasterflashjackmasterflash
    i think why not try and see how high we can finish, instead of looking over our shoulders, look at how high we can go. 18th is reachable.
  • Oggy RedOggy Red
    Only need to look ahead as far as the next game.


    That's all that matters.
  • ShootersHillGuruShootersHillGuru
    I don't see Birmingham getting relegated. Still 6 points clear of us and Millwall. Don't think any of bottom four will overhaul them. They have Best GD of the bottom clubs at -8 which is worth another point.

    In fact I think we might just get out of relegation on GD. Bottom three are the bottom three as is.
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