One (at least) glaring issue: 6 or 8 or however many clubs chasing the same talent the scouts have uncovered - who gets him? who makes the call? Seems like a huge conflict personally.
I'm hugely positive that RD owning Charlton will deliver great, long term benefits. The short term, however, is a different matter. He knows there is a good chance that we will be relegated & he has made sure that he will receive at least an element of financial compensation from the previous, idiot owners if that happens.
Given that he is so obviously banking on youth in the future & that he is not going to spend large amounts of money on more experienced players, I think we may need a spell in Division 1 to allow this plan to come together. The Championship is a brutal place for young players to earn their spurs; Division 1 is more forgiving.
I'm certain that RD does not want us to be relegated, but he won't be that worried if we are. He said yesterday that everything he does is looking at the long term. As supporters we are going to have to buy into that, or we are in for a period of huge frustration. Personally, I'm happy to give him time & see what develops.
5. At this point Richard Murray stepped in and argued that access to a European wide scouting network is a big positive. He explained that in the Premier League there is a majority of foreign players because they represent better value for money, but that in the Championship, League One and League Two the reverse is true because Clubs don't have the scouting network. This may well be a valid point. However, I'm afraid that I have to say that Murray undermined his credibility by trying to imply that the Club "had choices when selling, but chose Roland because he was an attractive buyer". I guess he probably thinks that the Media don't know there was no choice, that Murray wasn't involved anyway and that those that made the "sell" decision wouldn't give two hoots who the buyer was provided they were "good for the money". Murray is so obviously a decent man with the Club's interests close to his heart. It's such a shame he can't seem to resist obvious "spin".
According to Slater in the SLP on January 10th, "only one other than Roland Duchatelet actually made a formal offer". Slater said: "The one deal that was real remained completely confidential. It failed in the 59th minute of the 11th hour" and "the Football League required disclosure by those individuals and they were not prepared to identify themselves. So that bid, which had gone through full legal and financial due diligence, was blocked". They can't have it both ways.
I agree with Atletico and others - the long term prognosis looks promising (albeit Roland will have to to temper his idealism with an element of pragmatism) but the short term prospects look poor.
Chris Powell must have had a list of loan targets, if nothing else, and the failure, thus far, to get any seasoned Championship players in (for whatever reasons, probably legitimate) has only served to reinforce the chances of our being back in League 1 next season. Relegation will, in turn, set the Club back two or three years and prune back our already thin support to the hard core.
In saying that, we all know that the previous regime left us to wither on the vine in terms of player contracts and resources generally and there is also no guarantee that loan signings will enable us to turn things around. If, however, we don't secure any, I can only see one realistic outcome unless the new players all come good now and we somehow steer clear of further injuries over the next ten weeks, during which period we have a minimum 19 games.
His long term vision is all very well but in the short term relegation is a real possibility & we currently still haven't brought any championship quality players in, either permanent or on loan. If this continues relegation is almost a certainty, how many people are going to think well if the owner doesnt really care why should I ? Instead of buying season tickets I think a large amount of people will give up their season ticket & just choose their games knowing they would almost certainly be able to choose the exact same seat that they're sitting in now. Losing season ticket income will inevitably see one or more of the few players we have in contract sold off & no doubt we will be reminded that " I hope that the fans understand that occasionally we will have to sell a player" & if they are replaced it will no doubt be another young reserve from one of the other clubs that we share an owner with. Doom & gloom ? Sorry yes maybe but is this so far from the likely fall out of failing to bolster our squad NOW ?
We are an impatiant lot. Less than 2 months into his ownership and with too few games played, we expect everything to be in place and the future to be certain.
His long term vision is all very well but in the short term relegation is a real possibility & we currently still haven't brought any championship quality players in, either permanent or on loan. If this continues relegation is almost a certainty, how many people are going to think well if the owner doesnt really care why should I ? Instead of buying season tickets I think a large amount of people will give up their season ticket & just choose their games knowing they would almost certainly be able to choose the exact same seat that they're sitting in now. Losing season ticket income will inevitably see one or more of the few players we have in contract sold off & no doubt we will be reminded that " I hope that the fans understand that occasionally we will have to sell a player" & if they are replaced it will no doubt be another young reserve from one of the other clubs that we share an owner with. Doom & gloom ? Sorry yes maybe but is this so far from the likely fall out of failing to bolster our squad NOW ?
I don't know how many of you are like me but I will always renew my season ticket regardless. FFP will impact everyone next season if it hasn't already, and I understand the direction RD wants the club to go in. However, I think that current squad isn't good enough. 5 wins out of 28 now has to become 7/8 wins out of 18. My worry is that if we do go down, with hardly any experienced players under contract (oh no wait, Church), will a relatively young team get back up again? I've posted elsewhere that we'd probably need 15 or so players in over the summer. Where are these 15 going to come from, especially if we're going to let contracts run down?
The way RD comes across is that he doesn't want to gamble in the short term overspending on players, yet he's more in danger of gambling in the long term if he doesn't act to secure some loans, NOW.
We are an impatiant lot. Less than 2 months into his ownership and with too few games played, we expect everything to be in place and the future to be certain.
2 months is plenty of time to sit down with CP & ask him which players he would like to add to the squad & go about getting them. His vision for the future may well turn out to be brilliant, none of us know. What we do (almost certainly) know is, with this team we just don't have the quality to win the battle against relegation. We all know the difficulties of trying to get out of the 3rd division. 2 or 3 quality players would I'm sure see us to safety.
However, I think that current squad isn't good enough. 5 wins out of 28 now has to become 7/8 wins out of 18. .
I hadn't looked at it that way, that's really concerning. You're probably looking at needing 48 points or so to guarantee survival. Assuming we'll draw four or five then you're looking at needing wins in half of your other games. It's not inconceivable but to go from one in ten to one in two seems a big ask!
RD bought the club knowing that relegation was a possibility. It will be easier to re-structure the club's finances in Div 3 and reduced income from ticket sales can be more than compensated for with savings on wages that could be engineered with cheap player imports from Europe. As long as the books are balanced it may not affect RD's long term vision, after all, winning isn't everything.
Man City were in Div 3 not so long ago, I know some Man City supporters and at their lowest in 1999, 12th place in Div 3, they had a crowd of around 3,000 for a Johnson's Trophy game. Wasn't the end of the World was it. A football team is for life, not just while in the Premiership. I am happier on a Saturday with a win than with a loss, regardless of which division.
Sorry, I'm just getting mentally prepared for relegation as I think the next three or four games will determine our destiny this season.
RD bought the club knowing that relegation was a possibility. It will be easier to re-structure the club's finances in Div 3 and reduced income from ticket sales can be more than compensated for with savings on wages that could be engineered with cheap player imports from Europe. As long as the books are balanced it may not affect RD's long term vision, after all, winning isn't everything.
Man City were in Div 3 not so long ago, I know some Man City supporters and at their lowest in 1999, 12th place in Div 3, they had a crowd of around 3,000 for a Johnson's Trophy game. Wasn't the end of the World was it. A football team is for life, not just while in the Premiership. I am happier on a Saturday with a win than with a loss, regardless of which division.
Sorry, I'm just getting mentally prepared for relegation as I think the next three or four games will determine our destiny this season.
Not ideally what I want to hear or acknowledge but you tell it like it is, or is likely to be.
However, I hope the lads fight the good fight to the bitter end this season...until the last whistle blows.
And who knows what a soupcon of luck, a team with little to lose (IYKWIM) and a manager who lives & breaths Charlton might achieve....
RD bought the club knowing that relegation was a possibility. It will be easier to re-structure the club's finances in Div 3 and reduced income from ticket sales can be more than compensated for with savings on wages that could be engineered with cheap player imports from Europe. As long as the books are balanced it may not affect RD's long term vision, after all, winning isn't everything.
Man City were in Div 3 not so long ago, I know some Man City supporters and at their lowest in 1999, 12th place in Div 3, they had a crowd of around 3,000 for a Johnson's Trophy game. Wasn't the end of the World was it. A football team is for life, not just while in the Premiership. I am happier on a Saturday with a win than with a loss, regardless of which division.
Sorry, I'm just getting mentally prepared for relegation as I think the next three or four games will determine our destiny this season.
I don't know in what way it would be easier to restructure the club's finances in League One. The fixed costs of the stadium won't go down. There's very little saving to be made on non-football staffing, because it was cut to the bone in 2009. The academy costs are likely to increase, because it's a priority. The players who are out of contract will still be out of contract if we stay up, so they can be replaced in the prevailing market either way. In reality, the club will lose more money in League One than it would in the Championship; nobody can say that relegation is for one season.
If we go down there will be significant and lasting damage to the supporter base that will take years to repair, not least because the owner has the means to prevent it. People do not like being taken for granted, no matter how loyal they are or have been to the club.
I do agree that RD appears to be an intelligent and well intentioned man who wants the best for the club. But the road to hell, as they say, is paved with good intentions. Complacency about relegation, from any quarter, is madness.
A certain other forum seems adamant that Powell is out of a job by summer and there will be a very sizeable cash injection of Turkish investment
Time will tell I guess
He was out of work this week two days ago according to the same forum.
Some of the stuff on there is quite incredulous, poisonous place. Pretty sure Reams makes it up as he goes along, how anyone who's so wrong so often maintains such a gang of blind disciples I'll never know.
And he's still having a go at Rothko for something that didn't actually happen.
Just a few observations on the Press Conference for what they are worth;
4. He spent some time talking about the opportunity for young players to develop, as players and as people, by spending time at another Club in a different country and culture. Don't want to be cynical, but whilst that might make sense for young Executives in an Electronics business I'm not convinced its going to be value added for 17/18 year old footballers. We'll see I guess.
Very good analysis Mundell, although I am warmer about the youth development possibilities than you are. I can see how exposure to very technical coaching and a style of play which is more technically accomplished that the English style could be beneficial to youngsters, and the experience of living and working abroad should give them a more rounded view of life and their careers, as well as accelerating maturity. Most of all though, just think about where our youngsters go out on loan. At best, they get some games at a L1 side; more often it's L2 and many never get beyond non-league. Without getting into a debate about the standard of football in different countries, it must surely be more attractive to send someone like Joe Gomes out to one of Roland's other clubs for 3 months than down to Welling or even Wimbledon.
And it works both ways. Some of the overseas lads might well benefit by coming over here, getting a more physical development and experiencing the high life in SE7/SE9.
I don't know in what way it would be easier to restructure the club's finances in League One
Perhaps I'm naive. I'm assuming that because RD is making up the difference between income and expenditure he will have considered the impact of relegation. He will have considered a budget to deliver long term improvements. Might he think that in Div 3 he will be able to bring down the playing staff bill more rapidly and keep within his budget? I am assuming that the main things that change are ticket revenues and players' wages, because as you say, nothing changes with the infrastructure.
Just trying to rationalise why RD accepted the risk of relegation from a business perspective reckoning it could be covered with £4m - does that stack up? I can only judge it is based on managing the playing staff bill downwards and why KM is so central to the team. Replacing out of contract players is one thing, the cost of replacing them will be in his calculations. That cost will be different in the respective divisions.
I agree RD seems relatively "relaxed" compared to the manager, fans and everyone else. Is that complacency or confidence in his long term strategy (let's give him the benefit of the doubt that he has one)?
We are possibly looking at the first instance of a gulf between the fans' short term objectives and an owners long term objectives. I doubt RD has factored in any additional budget for spending our way out of relegation, so he won't be spending it, which is why I am pessimistic. It looks like RD has made it clear to CP that the responsibility is with CP and the players being made available within the existing budget.
The only crumb of comfort is that it would be worse if the owner had staked everything on staying up and we knew that we would be cut adrift if relegated.
I don't know in what way it would be easier to restructure the club's finances in League One
Perhaps I'm naive. I'm assuming that because RD is making up the difference between income and expenditure he will have considered the impact of relegation. He will have considered a budget to deliver long term improvements. Might he think that in Div 3 he will be able to bring down the playing staff bill more rapidly and keep within his budget? I am assuming that the main things that change are ticket revenues and players' wages, because as you say, nothing changes with the infrastructure.
Just trying to rationalise why RD accepted the risk of relegation from a business perspective reckoning it could be covered with £4m - does that stack up? I can only judge it is based on managing the playing staff bill downwards and why KM is so central to the team. Replacing out of contract players is one thing, the cost of replacing them will be in his calculations. That cost will be different in the respective divisions.
I agree RD seems relatively "relaxed" compared to the manager, fans and everyone else. Is that complacency or confidence in his long term strategy (let's give him the benefit of the doubt that he has one)?
We are possibly looking at the first instance of a gulf between the fans' short term objectives and an owners long term objectives. I doubt RD has factored in any additional budget for spending our way out of relegation, so he won't be spending it, which is why I am pessimistic. It looks like RD has made it clear to CP that the responsibility is with CP and the players being made available within the existing budget.
The only crumb of comfort is that it would be worse if the owner had staked everything on staying up and we knew that we would be cut adrift if relegated.
You've not mentioned - perhaps because you've offset it against the £4m - the £3m difference in TV money and the PL solidarity payment. You can write off another £1m in ticket and commercial revenue.
Our football wage bill is probably about £4.5m currently. It's relatively low in the Championship and I guess RD might think he can scrape another £1m or more off it if we go down. But he's not going to get it down to, say, £2.5m, in my opinion, or at not at least without risking going down to League Two, never mind not getting promoted first time. That would be 20 players on £100k, allowing that some will be on more.
He's going to have to spend more on the academy if he wants to get to Category One status and I'm not sure that's realistic in League One anyway.
Still don't get it, I'm afraid. If it's cheaper to run in League One for one season because of the structure of the takeover deal, it won't be a significant saving and the financial risk of a second season and a third is horrific.
A certain other forum seems adamant that Powell is out of a job by summer and there will be a very sizeable cash injection of Turkish investment
Time will tell I guess
He was out of work this week two days ago according to the same forum.
Some of the stuff on there is quite incredulous, poisonous place. Pretty sure Reams makes it up as he goes along, how anyone who's so wrong so often maintains such a gang of blind disciples I'll never know.
And he's still having a go at Rothko for something that didn't actually happen.
Comments
Given that he is so obviously banking on youth in the future & that he is not going to spend large amounts of money on more experienced players, I think we may need a spell in Division 1 to allow this plan to come together. The Championship is a brutal place for young players to earn their spurs; Division 1 is more forgiving.
I'm certain that RD does not want us to be relegated, but he won't be that worried if we are. He said yesterday that everything he does is looking at the long term. As supporters we are going to have to buy into that, or we are in for a period of huge frustration. Personally, I'm happy to give him time & see what develops.
Chris Powell must have had a list of loan targets, if nothing else, and the failure, thus far, to get any seasoned Championship players in (for whatever reasons, probably legitimate) has only served to reinforce the chances of our being back in League 1 next season. Relegation will, in turn, set the Club back two or three years and prune back our already thin support to the hard core.
In saying that, we all know that the previous regime left us to wither on the vine in terms of player contracts and resources generally and there is also no guarantee that loan signings will enable us to turn things around. If, however, we don't secure any, I can only see one realistic outcome unless the new players all come good now and we somehow steer clear of further injuries over the next ten weeks, during which period we have a minimum 19 games.
Instead of buying season tickets I think a large amount of people will give up their season ticket & just choose their games knowing they would almost certainly be able to choose the exact same seat that they're sitting in now. Losing season ticket income will inevitably see one or more of the few players we have in contract sold off & no doubt we will be reminded that " I hope that the fans understand that occasionally we will have to sell a player" & if they are replaced it will no doubt be another young reserve from one of the other clubs that we share an owner with. Doom & gloom ? Sorry yes maybe but is this so far from the likely fall out of failing to bolster our squad NOW ?
The way RD comes across is that he doesn't want to gamble in the short term overspending on players, yet he's more in danger of gambling in the long term if he doesn't act to secure some loans, NOW.
Man City were in Div 3 not so long ago, I know some Man City supporters and at their lowest in 1999, 12th place in Div 3, they had a crowd of around 3,000 for a Johnson's Trophy game. Wasn't the end of the World was it. A football team is for life, not just while in the Premiership. I am happier on a Saturday with a win than with a loss, regardless of which division.
Sorry, I'm just getting mentally prepared for relegation as I think the next three or four games will determine our destiny this season.
However, I hope the lads fight the good fight to the bitter end this season...until the last whistle blows.
And who knows what a soupcon of luck, a team with little to lose (IYKWIM) and a manager who lives & breaths Charlton might achieve....
It ain't over 'til this fat lady sings !
Keep the faith !!!!!
If we go down there will be significant and lasting damage to the supporter base that will take years to repair, not least because the owner has the means to prevent it. People do not like being taken for granted, no matter how loyal they are or have been to the club.
I do agree that RD appears to be an intelligent and well intentioned man who wants the best for the club. But the road to hell, as they say, is paved with good intentions. Complacency about relegation, from any quarter, is madness.
Very good analysis Mundell, although I am warmer about the youth development possibilities than you are. I can see how exposure to very technical coaching and a style of play which is more technically accomplished that the English style could be beneficial to youngsters, and the experience of living and working abroad should give them a more rounded view of life and their careers, as well as accelerating maturity. Most of all though, just think about where our youngsters go out on loan. At best, they get some games at a L1 side; more often it's L2 and many never get beyond non-league. Without getting into a debate about the standard of football in different countries, it must surely be more attractive to send someone like Joe Gomes out to one of Roland's other clubs for 3 months than down to Welling or even Wimbledon.
And it works both ways. Some of the overseas lads might well benefit by coming over here, getting a more physical development and experiencing the high life in SE7/SE9.
Perhaps I'm naive. I'm assuming that because RD is making up the difference between income and expenditure he will have considered the impact of relegation. He will have considered a budget to deliver long term improvements. Might he think that in Div 3 he will be able to bring down the playing staff bill more rapidly and keep within his budget? I am assuming that the main things that change are ticket revenues and players' wages, because as you say, nothing changes with the infrastructure.
Just trying to rationalise why RD accepted the risk of relegation from a business perspective reckoning it could be covered with £4m - does that stack up? I can only judge it is based on managing the playing staff bill downwards and why KM is so central to the team. Replacing out of contract players is one thing, the cost of replacing them will be in his calculations. That cost will be different in the respective divisions.
I agree RD seems relatively "relaxed" compared to the manager, fans and everyone else. Is that complacency or confidence in his long term strategy (let's give him the benefit of the doubt that he has one)?
We are possibly looking at the first instance of a gulf between the fans' short term objectives and an owners long term objectives. I doubt RD has factored in any additional budget for spending our way out of relegation, so he won't be spending it, which is why I am pessimistic. It looks like RD has made it clear to CP that the responsibility is with CP and the players being made available within the existing budget.
The only crumb of comfort is that it would be worse if the owner had staked everything on staying up and we knew that we would be cut adrift if relegated.
Our football wage bill is probably about £4.5m currently. It's relatively low in the Championship and I guess RD might think he can scrape another £1m or more off it if we go down. But he's not going to get it down to, say, £2.5m, in my opinion, or at not at least without risking going down to League Two, never mind not getting promoted first time. That would be 20 players on £100k, allowing that some will be on more.
He's going to have to spend more on the academy if he wants to get to Category One status and I'm not sure that's realistic in League One anyway.
Still don't get it, I'm afraid. If it's cheaper to run in League One for one season because of the structure of the takeover deal, it won't be a significant saving and the financial risk of a second season and a third is horrific.