Championship expectations

Chris_from_Sidcup

Braziliance said:

Bit concerned how many times we have dropped points or not won games we should have. We will undoubtedly hit a blip and those 4-9 points we arguably should have (Bristol City, Leicester, Millwall & Derby) could come in handy as a lifeline. 

I feel defensively as expected there are no concerns, but attack wise we are worse than I was expecting tbh. One goal in 8 games from all of our forwards combined. Bree has double the goals of all of our forwards combined.

Although we may be up there defensively and undoubtedly one of the better sides defensively, it has come at the cost of our attack in a few games. 

Works both ways though. We snatched late wins v Watford and Sheff Utd that could've easily been draws, and we got a draw at Derby that could've easily ended up as a late defeat.

Callumcafc

This is how Nathan Jones builds across a season. We saw it last year as well. 

- A bit of a fast start, owing more to defensive solidity more so than attacking power. 

- Then followed a dip when a few key defenders dropped out of the side: Edwards, Ramsay, Jones.

- Then, a combination of returning defenders and build up attacking understanding from Christmas onwards meant we were winning games fairly comfortably by the spring. 

This last bit will be much harder to replicate to the point of finishing top six, obviously. But I’d expect to see the same trend emerge between now and May.

Braziliance

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Braziliance said:

Bit concerned how many times we have dropped points or not won games we should have. We will undoubtedly hit a blip and those 4-9 points we arguably should have (Bristol City, Leicester, Millwall & Derby) could come in handy as a lifeline. 

I feel defensively as expected there are no concerns, but attack wise we are worse than I was expecting tbh. One goal in 8 games from all of our forwards combined. Bree has double the goals of all of our forwards combined.

Although we may be up there defensively and undoubtedly one of the better sides defensively, it has come at the cost of our attack in a few games. 

Works both ways though. We snatched late wins v Watford and Sheff Utd that could've easily been draws, and we got a draw at Derby that could've easily ended up as a late defeat.

We were never ahead or behind in those games though until we won late, no points dropped. We dropped points to Derby, QPR & Millwall.

Derby had the later chances, but Knibbs and Docherty could and probably should have put the game out of sight, Knibbs in particular. 

Got a tough month coming up, 3 aways and a favourable/must win home game. We have to beat Wednesday. I know their backs are against the wall, but they're in disarray and not even paying their players. If we can't achieve between 5-9 points from our next 4, the table suddenly won't look so kind, that's my concern.

Got to take the points while they are there.

NabySarr

Braziliance said:

Bit concerned how many times we have dropped points or not won games we should have. We will undoubtedly hit a blip and those 4-9 points we arguably should have (Bristol City, Leicester, Millwall & Derby) could come in handy as a lifeline. 

I feel defensively as expected there are no concerns, but attack wise we are worse than I was expecting tbh. One goal in 8 games from all of our forwards combined. Bree has double the goals of all of our forwards combined.

Although we may be up there defensively and undoubtedly one of the better sides defensively, it has come at the cost of our attack in a few games. 

We are probably doing more going forward than we were at the start of last season in league 1. If we follow a similar development pattern then I’d expect that to improve as the season goes on 

Looking at the xG, we have the 20th best attack so far, and the 3rd best defence. Those are easily good enough to keep us up comfortably if we continue playing like we are 

Callumcafc

Noticing October's unfortunate split between home and away matches, I wanted to look to see where it gets made up later.

Aug: 2/2
Sep: 2/2

Oct: 1/3
Nov: 3/3
Dec: 3/3
Jan: 3/3
Feb: 3/2
Mar: 2/2
Apr: 4/2
May: 0/1

Turns out that 5 of our last 8 matches will be at the Valley, meaning we have only three away games from mid-March onwards.

Chris_from_Sidcup

Braziliance said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Braziliance said:

Bit concerned how many times we have dropped points or not won games we should have. We will undoubtedly hit a blip and those 4-9 points we arguably should have (Bristol City, Leicester, Millwall & Derby) could come in handy as a lifeline. 

I feel defensively as expected there are no concerns, but attack wise we are worse than I was expecting tbh. One goal in 8 games from all of our forwards combined. Bree has double the goals of all of our forwards combined.

Although we may be up there defensively and undoubtedly one of the better sides defensively, it has come at the cost of our attack in a few games. 

Works both ways though. We snatched late wins v Watford and Sheff Utd that could've easily been draws, and we got a draw at Derby that could've easily ended up as a late defeat.

We were never ahead or behind in those games though until we won late, no points dropped. We dropped points to Derby, QPR & Millwall.

Derby had the later chances, but Knibbs and Docherty could and probably should have put the game out of sight, Knibbs in particular. 

Got a tough month coming up, 3 aways and a favourable/must win home game. We have to beat Wednesday. I know their backs are against the wall, but they're in disarray and not even paying their players. If we can't achieve between 5-9 points from our next 4, the table suddenly won't look so kind, that's my concern.

Got to take the points while they are there.

I know we didn't drop anything v Watford and Sheff Utd, my point is we nicked 4 extra points with late goals that counters some of the points dropped elsewhere.

But ultimately if that's how you look at it (in two posts you've mentioned Bristol city, Leicester, QPR Millwall and Derby, so basically every game we didn't win), then yes across the 8 games we've dropped 12 points.

I don't think there's many fans who would argue we deserved anything from QPR, we were really poor, and Bristol City was a good draw, i don't see that as 2 points dropped at all.

SouthLincsAddick

Braziliance said:

SouthLincsAddick said:

Braziliance said:

Bit concerned how many times we have dropped points or not won games we should have. We will undoubtedly hit a blip and those 4-9 points we arguably should have (Bristol City, Leicester, Millwall & Derby) could come in handy as a lifeline. 

I feel defensively as expected there are no concerns, but attack wise we are worse than I was expecting tbh. One goal in 8 games from all of our forwards combined. Bree has double the goals of all of our forwards combined.

Although we may be up there defensively and undoubtedly one of the better sides defensively, it has come at the cost of our attack in a few games. 

Thankfully, who scores the goals doesn’t make a difference to who wins/draws the game. For all we know NJ has decided we can’t compete in recruiting a prolific Championship quality striker and has instead concentrated on a sound defence, and our strikers being a foil for our midfield and wingbacks to score the goals for victory. I wouldn’t put it past him to have had this plan from the moment we got promoted.

Well, Bree is only here till January until otherwise, and let's be honest, even if we do end up signing him, he isn't going to carry on with his form, as not even the best full backs in the world can score or assist at the rate of every game. 

Whichever way you look at it, 1 goal in 8 games across 4 strikers is worrying, but hopefully they start finding their shooting boots soon. 

I understand your logic, but there is no manager in the world who doesn't expect their forwards to score goals. We are currently 31 apps across all 4 strikers with a 1 goal return. There is no way Jones was expecting that.

I think ultimately he’s only concerned about results rather than traditional thinking, that strikers must score the most goals. I also don’t see it as my logic, I see it as a plan NJ is obviously employing right now. He’s always been a progressive manager, and building a great defence in this league is so much more affordable than building a great strike force, and could arguably get you the same number of points for a newly promoted side.