Grand National 2021

Very interesting entry for Give Me A Copper in next Saturday's Eider. Looks like a trial as to whether to take his chance at Aintree, having disappointed on ground that would have been too soft for him at Donny last time. Would give his GN stats a material boost if he were to go well with 11.09 (currently 66/1 and 200+ on the exchanges for Aintree) but a decent surface is essential for this fella (forecast dry end to the week could make it so at Newcastle).
Comply Or Die (2008) was the last to go on from Eider success to GN glory.
Kimberlite Candy has an entry for a Pertemps hurdle qualifier on Thursday at Chepstow. Not a chance of him taking up an appointment at The Festival but would give his stats the remaining final nudge to have a safe spin and good blow, 44 days prior to the big one. 

.

BHA said to be deliberating the proposal from bookmakers to delay the GN until betting shops are open, possibly even swapping dates with Ayr's Scottish GN meeting scheduled a week later, so as to capitalise on a GN bonanza when betting shops re-open on 12th April.
To treat the Government's timetable as cast in stone would be unwise IMHO (as is the naked money-grab at a time when Westminster's nannying anti-betting forces are mobilising) but it would not surprise in the least if the idea prevails..... the ends justifying the means being orthodoxy these days.
In which case, it would hand an advantage to runners at The Festival (a 4 week gap once again, as has occurred from time to time) and make less likely (maybe) a soft ground GN.

oldbloke said:

Peanuts how do the willie mullins entries come out on your model as he could have two or three players of low weights come the big day. I think we will shortly see these all take their prep runs. He's a hard trainer to read from his comments but I think he likes one of the less fancied ones.

So, the first of the "what ifs" on Willie Mullin's entries and only right to start with the “top gun” Burrows Saint (top price 20/1):

Currently has 5 fails as per my Screentest, primarily due to the lack of chase form this term and last.
A win/near-miss and a new career-high RPR on Saturday (with a GNOR of 156, he needs to surpass his RPR160-rated Irish GN win), would drop him to 2 fails (providing it’s decent ground at Aintree), which would confirm he should be there or thereabouts but there's nothing by way of positive stat to distinguish him from others on that score and persuade me to give him a spot in my squad.
Nothing of note in his pedigree (and no Wild Risk on his damside) and (here comes the "famous last words" bit) while he had Ruby purring after seeing off all rivals in the 2019 Irish GN (prompting a 12lb rise in mark), the form of that race doesn’t look great on bare stats - the next 7 home have notched 2 wins from 45 runs since and the entire field a modest 7.7% strike rate from 181 subsequent runs.

As I say, no doubt a classic foot in mouth moment  

More anon.

The remainder of Willie's entries likely to make the cut:

Class Conti (40/1)
Another entered for the Bobbyjo chase on Saturday. A decent run last time in the Thyestes (notching a career-high RPR155 - good enough on that score, in light of his allotted 149 for Aintree) but his other stats are uninspiring with a GN in mind.
Without any sort of win for 2 years, poor hurdles RPR, no Class 1 chase win, never tried beyond 25f, which begs the question but there are mixed pedigree indications as to whether a marathon trip is within his compass, at least from a frame-making angle.
Does have Wild Risk on his damside but his dam-sires don't scream modern-GN success. He's 1/2 brother to Silviniaco Conti, whose tilt at the GN ended with a PU before completing a lap (admittedly with a much bigger weight and perhaps past his peak) and Ucello Conti who ran much better in 3 GNs: 2 URs at 22nd and 4 out when still in the mix and 37L 6th in 2016 (off the same mark and a similar weight to this fella), but it did appear from that run that 30f rather than 34f was perhaps optimum.
Again, currently 5 fails and even a win on Saturday won't make a big enough difference.

Brahma Bull (33/1)
A 10yo with low mileage (injury niggles) and unexposed beyond 25f (still a second season chaser so can be excused if the rest of his CV is good).
Has a pedigree that offers promise that a GN, particularly on decent ground, could be up his street. He's sired by Presenting (sire of GN 2010 winner Ballabriggs and 2018 near-misser Pleasant Company) and his dam-sire (Moscow Society) was dam-sire to 2011 3rd Seabass. He's also closely-related (via 2nd damsire Lancastrian, a Gr1 winner on the flat) to Irish GN winner Thunder And Roses (also by Presenting) whose 2 attempts at a GN were derailed by an early departure when badly hampered and then testing ground.
However, no Wild Risk on his dam-side, so short of the "ideal" for a modern-GN winning profile. 
Career stats-wise, he has a good enough hurdle RPR (140) and 3m+ chase RPR (157) for his allotted GNOR151 but currently still has 5 test "fails".
Is yet to win after a year's absence. Ran nicely on his return behind Minella Indo in November (flattered by the 7.5L margin) but has failed to complete twice since, though testing going wouldn't have helped.
He can clear 3 of those fails by winning or going close over fences in a decent quality 3m+ chase with 15+ runners (he's unproven in the hurly burly of a big field, which is a big "fail", though the GN success of Presenting progeny provides some reassurance that he could handle the mayhem).
Despite the promising pedigree, even if he can drop to 2 fails, like Willie's others, he's still short of a positive stat to hang your hat on and that's unlikely to be remedied anytime soon, given the prep possibilities open to him (too high in the handicap for the 26f Kim Muir).
No prep entries as yet - the Bobbyjo was mooted but he's giving that the swerve, maybe waiting for better ground. 
So, yet another of Willie's that has the potential for a bold show but, at best, my model's assessment is no cigar.

Cabaret Queen (100/1)
There are mares with serious claims in this GN but CQ's not one of them, according to my model.
She's got a stack of "fails" - poor hurdles RPR (111), poor 3m chase RPR (148) relative to her GNOR148.
Won the 3m Kerry National in September (was very nearly caught on the line by [the far more interesting stats-wise] Moyhenna) but has failed to make the frame on all 4 attempts beyond 24f, "flagging tamely" up the Cheltenham hill in a 26f Mares chase 2 years ago on helpful Good ground.
Not a great record in the spring over obstacles (0 from 5 runs) and her pedigree has absolutely nothing to indicate that a GN is the right test for her.
Otherwise, great!!   
Entered for the Mares 21f chase at The Festival, a trip and race which may be perfect for her but won't make any impression on her GN profile and, if Willie wants to test her over a marathon, Fairyhouse would seem the better bet.

Robin Des Foret (66/1)
Another one with an interesting pedigree, though one more suited to pre-2013 GNs.
Damsire Supreme Leader was damsire to Oscar Time (2011 GN2nd and 2013 4th) and provides a Wild Risk presence. 2nd damsire Roselier sired 2 GN winners (Bindaree and Royal Athlete) and was damsire to twice-placed Alvarado.
However, post-2012 GNs favour those with a Group 1 winner among the damsire cast and here he's lacking.
But he's lacking stats-wise too, though his best 3m chase form came 2 years ago when beaten 4L by Burrows Saint in a Grade 3 novice, conceding 6lbs to the imminent Irish GN winner.
Never come close to that form at 3m since and has generally run over shorter.
Clearly likes top of the ground and outperforms in the spring. Was busy last summer (near-missing twice over 21f) but hasn't run since October and nothing pencilled in by way of a prep. Indeed it doesn't sound like the GN's too serious a proposition from Willie's perspective: “Hopefully he’ll just squeeze in. It’s something we haven’t really thought of before and was a speculative entry and I think our owners were keen to have a day out."
Currently with 4 "fails" and it's highly unlikely he'll be able to make a significant advance on that in time. 


So there you have it @oldbloke
From my model's perspective, none of the above ................. he'll probably get a 1-2-3 now, led home by Cabaret Queen     

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

Peanuts, the amount of work you put into this is amazing. I would have no idea where to find this information. My own shortlist is down to Magic of Light and Cloth Cap. I am very happy to see you also rate Magic of Light. I am on at 33/1

Cheers @RobinKeepsBobbin
Reckon you might be notching another winner with that pair.
Hoping it's the mare myself - she'd be the first to do it for 70 years.
BTW, I agree with all the comments by @oldbloke @bobmunro and @ISawLeaburnScore
Can't see Tiger running in the XC myself. That hurdle run was fine for a horse returning from injury but he's clearly so short of proper race-readiness, I doubt that even Gordon can get him there in time for Cheltenham and I don't think they'll run him if he's not fully ready.
Have a sneaking suspicion, if he has another race at all, he'll have his swansong in the Irish GN but odds against him appearing at Aintree IMHO.

Talking of "frequency" vs "correlation", the most cited remaining "hoodoo" of them all GN-wise (no 7 yo winner since 1940) is highly topical once again this year with Secret Reprieve so short in the market.
With 8 yos doing very much better since the 2012-3 course changes (statistically out-performing, as noted in an earlier post), the race may be more winnable by a 7yo these days but let's consider the recent stats.
In the 7 GNs from 2013, 13 of the 276 runners were 7 yos (4.7% of fields).
If age means nothing in a GN, then (with that representation) the law of averages suggests a 7yo winner every 21 years (though it doesn't tell you when of course), so there's nothing of particular note that we haven't had one yet (if one writes off pre-2013 GN history). 
But there's 5 times the chance of them figuring in the first 5 home of course and, on that basis, we would expect to see a 7yo make the frame every 4 years if age is statistically irrelevant. In fact, none have made the frame in 7 GNs since 2013.
Do they fail to complete more than average?
13 is a small sample but it indicates not. Their completion rate has been 54% compared to the average 43% since 2013, which makes their failure to finish in the money worse still in terms of underperforming their 6% representation among finishers.
Yet that decent completion rate may offer a clue as to one reason why they're comfortably overdue to finish in the money. Consider this:
The closest a 7yo has come (by placing) is Vieux Lion Rouge's 7th (48L) in 2016 and (by distance) is Cause Of Causes' 27L (8th) in 2015. Both, of course, came home 6th and 2nd respectively in later GNs - seemingly well served by a sighter.
In the same vein, Saint Are came home a respectable 9th (42L) as a 7yo, before later near-missing twice.
Indeed, as 7 yos, Cause Of Causes had 0 "fails" of the Screentest (excluding any age test) and Saint Are only 2 fails - the best ratings of any 7yo runners since 2013 and enough ordinarily to rate them there-and-then as serious contenders, as their future GN success would seem to endorse.  
But in all 3 cases, as 7 yos, they were ridden towards the rear of their fields and never really put into the race - gradually making progress through the field to be "never-nearer" at the finish (though VLR tired somewhat on testing ground).
None of this disproves the 7 yos "hoodoo" but might it be the case that the stats for 7yos continue to show relative underperformance at least in part as a result of tactics rather than actual potential?
If so, even if one takes the view that the post-2012 course changes have been to the advantage of younger horses and that the "right" 7yo will win the GN in the not too distant future and even if one identifies a 7yo that ticks all the stat-boxes, can you trust that it will be ridden to win? 

As it happens, I don't have to answer that question this year, since as things stand it looks unlikely that any 7 yo (including the much-ballyhooed Welsh GN winner) will pass my Screentest but it's a teaser all right.

Secret Reprieve's owners (the Ruckers) have a proud history of GN stalwarts. State Of Play, Cappa Bleu and Alvarado each making the frame more than once - 7 times between them - but debuting over the fences as 9 or 10 yos. They'll presumably hope that this is just the start of the GN story for their young star and they're unlikely to want to risk "bottoming" him. So, regardless of Evan Williams utterances, if he does line up, I'd have my doubts as to just how strongly he'll be ridden.