Another big handicap where Le Breuil bowls along then drops anchor a few furlongs from home but somehow finishes like a train in the final few hundred yards. At least I didn't back him today! Surely he will win a decent race again at some point but it won't be the National off ~140
Bit harsh to say he dropped anchor IMHO (you must be confusing him with the fella carrying my wedge ). The way I saw Le B's run, it simply confirmed he lacks any change of gear and he got outpaced when it began to hot up down the back. I thought it showed a good attitude the way he kept on tbh and you can see why he won the 4-miler on testing ground. Was the only one not slowing down after the last and would have hauled them if there were another 1/2 furlong. Wind op may have helped but his engine's lacking sadly. Obviously would need it soft if he ever gets a tilt at the biggie but, as you say, he won't get in off 140. I'd have thought the Midlands National would be perfect for him and, if so, that could put him on a mark to protect (from falling!) for next time.
Dont know anything about horse racing even though my sister has shares in 3 race horses, and knows almost everything about all aspects of the racing game, it would be you peanuts I would turn too if I needed to know anything about putting my pound on.
Dont know anything about horse racing even though my sister has shares in 3 race horses, and knows almost everything about all aspects of the racing game, it would be you peanuts I would turn too if I needed to know anything about putting my pound on.
Welcome back.
Thanks @Chippycafc Very kind of you but, in truth, I'm very much a one-trick pony. Away from the GN fences and marathon handicaps, there are much smarter cookies among Addicks posting here. I follow them 95% of the time. But I appreciate the thought and hope you enjoy this year's GN musings, even if some of the antepost plots have proved to be raspberries.
Another big handicap where Le Breuil bowls along then drops anchor a few furlongs from home but somehow finishes like a train in the final few hundred yards. At least I didn't back him today! Surely he will win a decent race again at some point but it won't be the National off ~140
Bit harsh to say he dropped anchor IMHO (you must be confusing him with the fella carrying my wedge ). The way I saw Le B's run, it simply confirmed he lacks any change of gear and he got outpaced when it began to hot up down the back. I thought it showed a good attitude the way he kept on tbh and you can see why he won the 4-miler on testing ground. Was the only one not slowing down after the last and would have hauled them if there were another 1/2 furlong. Wind op may have helped but his engine's lacking sadly. Obviously would need it soft if he ever gets a tilt at the biggie but, as you say, he won't get in off 140. I'd have thought the Midlands National would be perfect for him and, if so, that could put him on a mark to protect (from falling!) for next time.
Yes you're probably right, maybe not dropping anchor quite but he does seem to get to the point in these races 3/4/5 from home when some kick to press on and he's often caught one paced until his last spurt in final couple of hundred yards. I always had him down as having more class than a plodding stayer but maybe that's his forte. Good shout on the Midlands National.
Was surprised to see Walk In The Mill so flat with the headgear.
Just placed my first ante post/trading bets for the National. Cloth Cap and The Conditional both at 25/1
Nice one Killer.
Distinctly mixed results from my ante post manoeuvres. A couple of duds to be unwound but at least I’m on a couple of my model’s current top-ratings at nice prices. Obviously still lots of wood to chop but, having run the slide rule over about 60 likely runners, as things stand right now the top 4 for me (covering a range of going prefs by happy coincidence) are:
Magic Of Light at 33/1 Kimberlite Candy (top selection if Soft) 40/1 Cloth Cap 20/1 Crosspark 66/1
If it were to come up Soft (but only if), I’d definitely keep/add to my trading position on Yala Enki .
Kimberlite Candy is my 50/50 haven’t got a clue what to do horse at the moment.My head is having a yes/no row at the moment and neither are winning!!!!!
While we await GN entries and, importantly, weights to be framed in Feb, a swift update on my model, lest anyone is sad enough to want to take an interest in this weird hobby of mine.
Without a result to tweak but with lockdown hours to wile away (preferably away from Mrs M's choice of TV viewing and, especially, her Cagney & Lacey box-set), and as there are now stats from 7 GNs to crunch since the post-2012 course changes (getting on for a reasonable statistical sample), I decided last summer to add a purely statistical "overlay" to my (otherwise unchanged) model.
The existing model uses GN data from 2005 onwards (15 GNs) and employs a formula based on my observations of stat-patterns of past winners and finishing <20L. It was particularly successful in pre-2013 GNs (winner or runner-up in all GNs 2006 to 2012, on occasion both!) and it then drew on a database going back to 1987. But the course changes post-2012 have clearly changed the nature of the test (placing less emphasis on jumping prowess and more on stamina at a lung-busting cruising speed) and, though the model's been profitable since, it's not had the same accuracy or success with winners. Perhaps because the quality of entries has risen, it also hasn't whittled the shortlist down sufficiently at times and, sadly, it meant that my unreliable nose threw out from its shortlist the shortest-price candidate, Tiger Roll, for both 2018 and 2019 betting slips. Ugh!
The new overlay is designed to sharpen its accuracy and make the final selection as objective as possible (with some leeway for going). It's based purely upon applying 9 specific tests to each runner's CV. Importantly, each test appears to be "statistically meaningful", because the runners that failed to pass each one individually across the 7 GNs from 2013: a) had meaningful representation - at least 20% failures among the 276 runners per test and b) showed meaningful underperformance relative to that representation - always so as regards winners and <5L (of which there were 13 in total) and in most cases also as regards those finishing 1~5 (of which there were 35, of course).
So what are the tests? Bearing in mind that I also count as a "win" any near-miss (<5L) (and that I round 0.5f up), those 9 stat-tests are:
1. To indicate reasonable absolute weight: if carrying 10.12+ in the GN, must have won a Class 1 24f+ chase that season and if carrying 11.02+ it must have been over 26f+. Of 276 runners: 24% failed the test. Those that failed contributed 0% of the 13 "winners" and 6% of the 35 finishing 1~5.
2. To indicate reasonable mark: from 1 March in the preceding season (to account for those favouring spring ground), must have notched an RPR in a 24f+ chase at least 5lbs > GN Official Rating. If carrying 11.04+, must have been at least 6lbs > GNOR. 58% failed = 15% of winners and 29% of1~5
3. To indicate ability to jump at high cruising speed: must have achieved a RPR over hurdles of 133+ or, if carrying 10.12+ in the GN, 140+. 38% failed = 15% of winners and 20% of 1~5
4. To indicate race suitability: must have won a chase on a left-handed track (if 5+ attempts) and made the frame or finished <10L in a chase with 15+ runners. 24% failed = 0% of winners and 0% of 1~5
5. To indicate form (again allowing for spring-ground pref): must have won a chase since 1 March in preceding season (i.e. in last 13 months). 22% failed = 0% of winners and 3% of 1~5
6. To indicate class at 3m+: must have won over 24f+ a Gr1 anytime or a Class 1 chase or hurdle within the last 3 years. 25% failed = 0% of winners and 11% of 1~5
7. To indicate stamina: must have form either (a) carrying 11.05+ in a Class 2+ chase over 26f+ or Class 3+ over 29f+ or (b) carrying 10.10+ in a Class 1 over 29f+. If carrying 11.02+ in the GN, must tick box (b) with a win. 71% failed = 31% of winners and 37% of 1~5
8. To indicate potential presence of the "Big Heart" gene, potentially to make the difference in the last furlong: must have Wild Risk on damside of pedigree (up to 9th generation). 41% failed = 0% of winners and 37% of 1~5
9. To indicate prep gone to plan: must have 2+ runs in the season, including 1+ before and 1+ from 1 Jan. And, if 3+ runs, must have finished <25L in a 24f+ chase or <10L in any other race. 20% failed = 0% of winners and 6% of 1~5
As a final 10th test, only applied in the event of Soft going, a runner must have won on Soft or softer a Class 1 chase at 25f+ with 11.00+ or at 28f+ with any weight. This test applied only to 2 of the 7 GNs (2016 & 2018), obviously.
BACK-TESTED RESULTS OF THE OVERLAY:
Only 7 (<3%) of the 276 runners over these 7 GNs passed all 9 (or 10) tests. They and their respective finishing positions were:
Auroras Encore (2013 - won)
Pineau De Re (2014 - won)
One For Arthur (2017 - won)
Cause Of Causes (2017 - 2nd 4.5L)
Saint Are (2017 - 3rd 8L)
Tiger Roll (2018 - won)
Tiger Roll (2019 - won)
Another 17 (6%) of the 276 failed only 1 test. They were:
Cappa Bleu (2013 - 2nd)
Rocky Creek (2014 - 5th)
Balthazar King (2014 - 2nd)
The Druids Nephew (2015 - Fell when leading 6 out)
Cause Of Causes (2015 - 8th)
Rule The World (2016 - won)
Saint Are (PU)
Blaklion (2017 - 4th)
Vieux Lion Rouge (2017 - 6th)
Pleasant Company (2018 - 2nd)
Raz De Maree (2018 - 10th)
Houblon Des Obeaux (2018 - Fell 6th)
Bless The Wings (2018 - 3rd)
Milansbar (2018 - 5th)
Rathvinden (2019 - 3rd)
Magic Of Light (2019 - 2nd)
Vintage Clouds (2019 - Fell 1st)
So, together, these 0~1 test failures accounted for 9% of all runners but contributed 92% of winners and near-missers (<5L). If every one of them was backed each-way (5 places), 71% of the bets would have made a return.
Another 38 runners failed 2 tests. Thus, those with 0~2 fails represented 22% of all 276 runners but contributed 100% of winners and near-missers and 89% of those finishing 1~5 (i.e. only 4 of the 35 to make the frame from 2013 to 2019 failed > 2 tests and none were nearer than 4th).
So, turning to 2021.
Assuming all have an uneventful final prep and that the topweight on 10 April runs off OR168, as things stand right now, of the 60 horses that I think most likely to get an entry that I've put the slide rule over, 6 are rated as "strong place potential" by my original model and also pass the overlay screen:
With 1 fail:
Magic Of Light (joint top-rated on decent ground) - currently top-price 25/1
Crosspark (joint top-rated on decent ground) - 50/1
With 2 fails:
Kimberlite Candy (top-rated on Soft) - 28/1
Cloth Cap (on decent ground only) - 25/1
Yala Enki (on Soft only) - 50/1
Vinndication - 40/1 (but may have Gold Cup as target)
By way of interesting outsiders flashing away on the edge of the radar screen, there are 3 currently rated minor place potential with 2 fails, which are:
Kildisart (best chance probably on decent ground) - 50/1
Give Me A Copper (on decent ground only) - 50/1
Discorama - 50/1
Please note, there's still lots of wheels spinning away vigorously and there will almost certainly be promotion to and relegation from these lists. More anon.
Cheers @meldrew66 You're very kind. Looks good on the drawing board but, as always, the best laid plans can go ........
Of course, I recognise that you can't legislate for one horse bringing another one down at the GN but your model is, effectively, based on fact and not opinion. The incredible recent success of the horses who fit your 'model' speaks for itself. I, for one, am right behind you PM.
Cheers @meldrew66 Much appreciate your vote of confidence.
Facts yes, though there’s always a large element of subjectivity as to how one defines the parameters of a stat model. My GN model’s been profitable for me for 12 out of the 14 years I’ve used it (hence I keep anoraking away) but it’s always been (and I’m certain always will be) work in progress. Sadly still no Ferrari in my garage.
Tbh, the biggest kick for me comes when one of it’s “wilder” picks brings home the bacon, even if just making the frame.
On which subject, buckle up boys and girls. The handicapper having obliged with a drop in his mark, there's a serious outsider that’s burst into contention.
Has the GN as his stated target, is sure to make the cut and, if he gets decent ground, is now rated by my model as "strong place potential" (2 fails of the Overlay tests is fine, providing it’s a decent surface, though suggests winning's a stretch).
If you thought Crosspark was funky, try this fella for size. Beginning to wonder if my model’s got a virus
Minellacelebration - 100/1
stayed on strongly to win the Listed Summer Cup over 26f at Uttoxeter last July
never tried beyond 26.5f but related to classy stayer (twice Whitbread winner) Ad Hoc and Ryalux, strong-finishing winner of the Scottish National on his first try beyond 25f. Has Wild Risk on his damside.
very much a spring horse (has 62.5% win and 75% frame-making rate in 8 chases Apr~July, compared to 22% wins and 33% frame-making in other months)
loves flat, left handed tracks, especially Aintree - form reads 1211 over the Mildmay course. Was unlucky to unseat on the flat early in the Becher last December but had jumped and travelled well for a long way on ground too soft a year earlier
handles any ground (won from Good to Heavy) but a sound surface would suit best
2 wins from 5 runs this season (forget 2 subsequent URs - both misfortune), he's "as hard as nails" according to regular pilot Ben Poste and, ignoring those 2 URs and a BD, has a 95% completion rate in 44 chases, hurdles and PtPs (never PU'd)
the 11yo has just been dropped to OR148 by the handicapper (6lbs below his career high RPR154, set in October over the Mildmay course) and would carry just 10.04 if the topweight runs off 168.
His record in the spring is key to his chances, from my model's perspective, and if he has a prep over fences within a month of the big day, he'd need to confirm that spring form (and thereby his serious contender rating) by making the frame. That said, an earlier spin (just after the weights) might tee him up best for 10 April, as he's won 4 of last 5 runs after a >50 day break.
The problem with using a stat-model is weighing up whether or not to take an early price when significant stats are liable to change. But, Bet365 are the only firm offering 100/1 (he’s 66s elsewhere and only 40s with SkyBet) so, as the stake is modest, I've made him the 5th bet on my antepost slip. I just don’t want to miss the chance of screaming at the telly as a 100/1 shot carrying my shilling goes over the last upsides, just like Vic Canvas did a few years back.
And it would be a good old-fashioned GN fairy story for his yard if he were to run a biggy.
Agh, it’ll probably come to nowt but hey ho. One can but dream.
Walk In The Mill retired. Had some great spins around Aintree but looked like he didn't want anything to do with Warwick last week. Good to see prompt action as he deserves his pasture.
Interesting comment from Nicholls after Yala Enki duly won (as he should have at the weights) back to back Portman Cups at Taunton yesterday:
"Where we'll go now I don't know, the trouble is he likes plenty of cut and we'll focus on soft ground. I'd love to see him in a Scottish National one day on really soft ground, but at the back end of the season you're never guaranteed that."
Why not, "I'd love to see him in a GN on really soft ground"? He was an intended runner a year ago, when Nicholls expressed optimism about him handling Aintree-style GS and the fact is (unsurprisingly as they're earlier in April) that there have been more GNs (2 of the last 4) run on Soft than Scottish versions in recent years. May be his first fence departure in the Becher (on favoured Soft) has deterred connections from risking him again at Aintree even on Soft? It was only YE's 2nd F/UR in 32 chases, so no doubt a big disappointment. Entries should be out this week and while I expect they'll give him a GN entry to keep options open, I've closed out my positions on YE in case he's a surprise omission. I'd still want him on my ticket e/w on Soft if he were to run and wouldn't be overly worried about that Becher mishap. Plenty of GN winners and near-missers (pre- and post-fence changes) have tipped up on earlier attempts over the fences (most recently, Pineau de Re tipped up on his debut over them before winning the big one on his next attempt in 2014) and Nicholls would have schooled him over Aintree-style fences if he were to let him take his chance.
Magic Of Light ran well enough to finish 2nd in the mares hurdle at Ascot, beaten by the much superior Roksana. No surprise at the weights and still nicely on track for another tilt at the biggy.
Interesting comment from Nicholls after Yala Enki duly won (as he should have at the weights) back to back Portman Cups at Taunton yesterday:
"Where we'll go now I don't know, the trouble is he likes plenty of cut and we'll focus on soft ground. I'd love to see him in a Scottish National one day on really soft ground, but at the back end of the season you're never guaranteed that."
Why not, "I'd love to see him in a GN on really soft ground"? He was an intended runner a year ago, when Nicholls expressed optimism about him handling Aintree-style GS and the fact is (unsurprisingly as they're earlier in April) that there have been more GNs (2 of the last 4) run on Soft than Scottish versions in recent years. May be his first fence departure in the Becher (on favoured Soft) has deterred connections from risking him again at Aintree even on Soft? It was only YE's 2nd F/UR in 32 chases, so no doubt a big disappointment. Entries should be out this week and while I expect they'll give him a GN entry to keep options open, I've closed out my positions on YE in case he's a surprise omission. I'd still want him on my ticket e/w on Soft if he were to run and wouldn't be overly worried about that Becher mishap. Plenty of GN winners and near-missers (pre- and post-fence changes) have tipped up on earlier attempts over the fences (most recently, Pineau de Re tipped up on his debut over the GN fences before winning the big one on his next attempt in 2014) and Nicholls would have schooled him over Aintree-style fences if he were to take him chance.
Magic Of Light ran well enough to finish 2nd in the mares hurdle at Ascot, beaten by the much superior Roksana. No surprise at the weights and still nicely on track for another tilt at the biggy.
Yala Enki’s owner was interviewed on tv yesterday. Said he wasn’t a National man but would see what the trainer says.
Interesting comment from Nicholls after Yala Enki duly won (as he should have at the weights) back to back Portman Cups at Taunton yesterday:
"Where we'll go now I don't know, the trouble is he likes plenty of cut and we'll focus on soft ground. I'd love to see him in a Scottish National one day on really soft ground, but at the back end of the season you're never guaranteed that."
Why not, "I'd love to see him in a GN on really soft ground"? He was an intended runner a year ago, when Nicholls expressed optimism about him handling Aintree-style GS and the fact is (unsurprisingly as they're earlier in April) that there have been more GNs (2 of the last 4) run on Soft than Scottish versions in recent years. May be his first fence departure in the Becher (on favoured Soft) has deterred connections from risking him again at Aintree even on Soft? It was only YE's 2nd F/UR in 32 chases, so no doubt a big disappointment. Entries should be out this week and while I expect they'll give him a GN entry to keep options open, I've closed out my positions on YE in case he's a surprise omission. I'd still want him on my ticket e/w on Soft if he were to run and wouldn't be overly worried about that Becher mishap. Plenty of GN winners and near-missers (pre- and post-fence changes) have tipped up on earlier attempts over the fences (most recently, Pineau de Re tipped up on his debut over the GN fences before winning the big one on his next attempt in 2014) and Nicholls would have schooled him over Aintree-style fences if he were to take him chance.
Magic Of Light ran well enough to finish 2nd in the mares hurdle at Ascot, beaten by the much superior Roksana. No surprise at the weights and still nicely on track for another tilt at the biggy.
Yala Enki’s owner was interviewed on tv yesterday. Said he wasn’t a National man but would see what the trainer says.
Does seem strange not to want to go to Aintree.
Thanks for that @alan dugdale I'd missed that - was too switched onto Scotty, Curbs and Brownie for their very entertaining pre-match chinwag. Maybe like Native River's owners - just not wanting to risk their fellas. I can understand it and, though it was always a dream of mine to have a GN runner, it would probably have meant divorce
You may only get one chance in your life at a Grand National runner Peanuts but always a chance of a second or even more wives..............................
You may only get one chance in your life at a Grand National runner Peanuts but always a chance of a second or even more wives..............................
Evening folks. A few likely Irish contenders for Aintree glory squelched their way round a soggy Gowran Park yesterday in the Thyestes, though none with any incentive to draw the attention the handicapper this side of the GN weights-framing. So nothing particular to note from the runs of Acapella Bourgeois and Class Conti (who at least made an effort to get involved), Any Second Now and Alpha Des Obeaux (who didn't). The impressive winner, 6 yo Coko Beach, too young to run this year anyway, is NH Chase bound. Burrows Saint has a similarly unremarkable trot round in a hurdle on the same card.
Tomorrow's Cotswold Chase, which might have seen some English contenders in action, alas has been lost to waterlogging.
Which leaves us with the SkyBet chase at Donny, forecast to be run on Soft (though it rarely gets deep there) and there are several who may have Aintree as their ultimate target.
Former Scottish National winner, 12 yo Takingrisks, and up and comer 8 yo Cap Du Nord (hot favourite for tomorrow, based on his recent second to Royale Pagaille and being 3lb well-in) could both have Aintree in their sights. But, regardless of how they fare, they (and topweight Mister Malarky, despite being from the family of GN 2nd Just So and 4th Dubacilla) are unlikely to have the stat-profiles to make my team.
But 2 others in the 13 strong field very well may:
Aye Right (15/2 tomorrow; 33/1 for the GN) 2nd to Cloth Cap in November's Hennessy (and running off just 1lb higher is currently weighted on level terms on paper with Cloth Cap), a win or near-miss tomorrow could (depending on not prompting too big a hike in the handicap) secure the front-running and strong-jumping 8yo a strong place potential stat-rating for April (at least on decent ground). Give Me A Copper (16/1 tomorrow; 50/1 for the GN)
The 11 yo son of Presenting is having his second run after a wind op (ran very impressively on return after 357 days to near-miss at Donny in Dec on GS; raised 3lbs for that). Just needs a safe spin to confirm his contending stat-rating for the GN (though, again, assuming no serious handicap raise and decent ground in April.
Interesting you flag up Aye Right Peanuts. I'm not sure he'll be going to Aintree reading the latest comments from Harriet Graham. If he did, his progressive trajectory is quite taking even though the trip is uncharted territory. It's hard to believe he was 100/1 in a 10 runner RSA chase less than a year ago.
Interesting you flag up Aye Right Peanuts. I'm not sure he'll be going to Aintree reading the latest comments from Harriet Graham. If he did, his progressive trajectory is quite taking even though the trip is uncharted territory. It's hard to believe he was 100/1 in a 10 runner RSA chase less than a year ago.
Many thanks @ISawLeaburnScore I should have made it clear that we’re still awaiting entries (due imminently, with the weights set to be announced on 16 Feb). We’re still antepost (not Non-Runner No Bet) so, as you highlight, need to be careful about intentions. I’m just putting the slide rule over those that have the CV and mark to make it a credible target - some are definitely intended, others unknown and Aye Right is indeed one of the latter. I’ve seen Harriet quoted as saying the race tomorrow is a good prep for “the Nationals” in the spring and she mooted the Scottish, so maybe they’ll give Aintree a swerve. We’ll see.
...... and a belter it was indeed. Aye Right ran a blinder before just being reeled in by the redoubtable Takingrisks. Good enough to make Aye Right very interesting indeed if he does go to Aintree (on the small side maybe but the way he jumps and travels, strikes me as the perfect type for the Aintree spruce) and the ground is GS or thereabouts but the presumption seems to be that Ayr is preferred. Fitzy and Ruby hold the same view as me re the GN being the better target and current 33s is very appealing but sadly not as an antepost bet, so it's a watch and wait for GN entries and NRNB. Give Me A Copper needs a sound surface (as do many sons of Presenting) and struggled from halfway on tacky and unusually testing ground for Donny. Still very much flashing away on the radar screen for Aintree, providing the rain stops, and should have a lb or two less to carry now. Takingrisks is such an likeable, stout stayer but, aside from being a tad long in the tooth at 12, just doesn't tick enough of the stat-boxes for a GN.
Do you think Aye Right would have won today had his jockey not dropped his whip about two out.
I missed that - good spot. Could well have made a diff. Sort of wish you hadn't told me that @Bournesnr - missing the win component of my e/w cost me £240
Do you think Aye Right would have won today had his jockey not dropped his whip about two out.
I missed that - good spot. Could well have made a diff. Sort of wish you hadn't told me that @Bournesnr - missing the win component of my e/w cost me £240
My stake was half yours then!
I think the whip drop makes a big difference looking at the strikes and impact on Takingrisks after the last. I'll try to take the positives... Aye Right is going to win a big'un at some point and perhaps another gallant defeat might hide a bit from the handicapper. One to follow for sure as an each way steady eddie but just as you suggest, he's not an Ante Post prospect.
Out of interest Peanuts - do you think it's your revamped model that gives him a squeak when your previous model(s) wouldn't have? 7 chase starts only one win including an unseat and never running over more than 3m 2f would put many off...
Do you think Aye Right would have won today had his jockey not dropped his whip about two out.
I missed that - good spot. Could well have made a diff. Sort of wish you hadn't told me that @Bournesnr - missing the win component of my e/w cost me £240
My stake was half yours then!
I think the whip drop makes a big difference looking at the strikes and impact on Takingrisks after the last. I'll try to take the positives... Aye Right is going to win a big'un at some point and perhaps another gallant defeat might hide a bit from the handicapper. One to follow for sure as an each way steady eddie but just as you suggest, he's not an Ante Post prospect.
Out of interest Peanuts - do you think it's your revamped model that gives him a squeak when your previous model(s) wouldn't have? 7 chase starts only one win including an unseat and never running over more than 3m 2f would put many off...
Totally agree Chief, though the bugger's added weight to Crosspark after each of his last 3 2nds, so he may not come out of it unscathed. We'll see on Tuesday.
Interesting question you ask about the different model's evaluation of him. At the risk of sending you off to the land of nod...........
My existing model (using GN data from 2005-19) rates him solid place potential but short of winning calibre - a stat-profile similar to horses that have finished 10-20L off the "typical" winner 2005~19 (3rd~5th sort of territory). However, he now scores only 1 fail with the new Overlay to my model. It is subject to his handicap mark remaining broadly as is and to the going (handles soft but doesn't have the profile for a marathon on soft) but it is consistent with a winning/near-missing calibre (in back-testing the Overlay scores Rule The World, Magic Of Light, Rathvinden all with 1 fail for example).
So, you're absolutely right to deduce that, while my existing model would rate him potentially backable e/w, the new Overlay pretty much demands (if the OR and ground conditions are met) that I have him on my team. And I think there's a logical reason for that slightly different evaluation. Aside from being a different type of stat-screen, the Overlay is based on data purely from GNs 2013-19. What is notable with GNs since the course changes post-2012 is how much better 8 yos are faring than before. Some near-misses but there were only 2 8yo winners in 24 GNs 1987-2012, and none from 2003 to 2012. In contrast, 3 of the 7 GNs from 2013 have been won by 8 yos. Moreover, the same pattern is seen in the ages of those finishing 1st~4th. 2005~2012, only 5 8yos made the first 4 home (16% of the front 4 places). Since 2013, the figure is 32% (9 of 28) but 8 yos represented only 18% of all runners 2013-19 (50 of 276). That's a significant outperformance and maybe being an 8yo should be a plus in the Overlay. In fact it's not (at least not at the moment) but the fact that he scores slightly better with the Overlay likely does reflect the fact that his more youthful profile (as an 8yo, less likely to be exposed over an extended trip) is more consistent with that of winners and near-missers since 2012 than with those before.
That near-miss today was significant stat-wise in giving him his first win or near-miss (<5L) in a Class 1 chase over 24f+ and that solitary run over 26f you mention, of course, was a not-stopping 2nd in a major handicap, giving a stone to the winner. I know that Cloth Cap has a fine Scottish National run on his CV (and he's a worthy fancy for the GN - indeed he'll also be on my team on decent ground) but, at current marks, they'd meet again on level terms on that Hennessy run. As for proven stamina, don't forget Magic of Light (also a front-running 8yo at the time) had no form beyond 24f when near-missing last time. And like MOL, Aye Right has Wild Risk on the damside of his pedigree - indeed he has it via his sire as well, the incomparable stayer Yeats, from whom he probably gets his genuine character.
I just hope we get a chance to see him over the spruce. We'll see.
I am intrigued that your stat model is bringing to life the popular assessment that the race has fundamentally changed and the more forgiving obstacles now give materially more chance to horses carrying a higher weight and/or those who are progressive chasers. Sweeping generalisation but I remember the "old" model putting up more experienced types with an emphasis on course or marathon trip form whereas the revisions now bring up potentially more classy types and seemingly look for a broader range of qualities; and are more forgiving of the negatives without putting a line through. The 8 year old comment is particularly telling after the last 5 years or so. Have to say I find the tinkering with your model fascinating.
Comments
The way I saw Le B's run, it simply confirmed he lacks any change of gear and he got outpaced when it began to hot up down the back.
I thought it showed a good attitude the way he kept on tbh and you can see why he won the 4-miler on testing ground. Was the only one not slowing down after the last and would have hauled them if there were another 1/2 furlong. Wind op may have helped but his engine's lacking sadly.
Obviously would need it soft if he ever gets a tilt at the biggie but, as you say, he won't get in off 140.
I'd have thought the Midlands National would be perfect for him and, if so, that could put him on a mark to protect (from falling!) for next time.
Welcome back.
Very kind of you but, in truth, I'm very much a one-trick pony. Away from the GN fences and marathon handicaps, there are much smarter cookies among Addicks posting here.
I follow them 95% of the time.
But I appreciate the thought and hope you enjoy this year's GN musings, even if some of the antepost plots have proved to be raspberries.
Was surprised to see Walk In The Mill so flat with the headgear.
Distinctly mixed results from my ante post manoeuvres. A couple of duds to be unwound but at least I’m on a couple of my model’s current top-ratings at nice prices.
Obviously still lots of wood to chop but, having run the slide rule over about 60 likely runners, as things stand right now the top 4 for me (covering a range of going prefs by happy coincidence) are:
Magic Of Light at 33/1
Kimberlite Candy (top selection if Soft) 40/1
Cloth Cap 20/1
Crosspark 66/1
If it were to come up Soft (but only if), I’d definitely keep/add to my trading position on Yala Enki .
Lots of moving parts still though, obviously.
While we await GN entries and, importantly, weights to be framed in Feb, a swift update on my model, lest anyone is sad enough to want to take an interest in this weird hobby of mine.
Without a result to tweak but with lockdown hours to wile away (preferably away from Mrs M's choice of TV viewing and, especially, her Cagney & Lacey box-set), and as there are now stats from 7 GNs to crunch since the post-2012 course changes (getting on for a reasonable statistical sample), I decided last summer to add a purely statistical "overlay" to my (otherwise unchanged) model.
The existing model uses GN data from 2005 onwards (15 GNs) and employs a formula based on my observations of stat-patterns of past winners and finishing <20L. It was particularly successful in pre-2013 GNs (winner or runner-up in all GNs 2006 to 2012, on occasion both!) and it then drew on a database going back to 1987. But the course changes post-2012 have clearly changed the nature of the test (placing less emphasis on jumping prowess and more on stamina at a lung-busting cruising speed) and, though the model's been profitable since, it's not had the same accuracy or success with winners. Perhaps because the quality of entries has risen, it also hasn't whittled the shortlist down sufficiently at times and, sadly, it meant that my unreliable nose threw out from its shortlist the shortest-price candidate, Tiger Roll, for both 2018 and 2019 betting slips. Ugh!
The new overlay is designed to sharpen its accuracy and make the final selection as objective as possible (with some leeway for going). It's based purely upon applying 9 specific tests to each runner's CV. Importantly, each test appears to be "statistically meaningful", because the runners that failed to pass each one individually across the 7 GNs from 2013:
a) had meaningful representation - at least 20% failures among the 276 runners per test and
b) showed meaningful underperformance relative to that representation - always so as regards winners and <5L (of which there were 13 in total) and in most cases also as regards those finishing 1~5 (of which there were 35, of course).
So what are the tests? Bearing in mind that I also count as a "win" any near-miss (<5L) (and that I round 0.5f up), those 9 stat-tests are:
1. To indicate reasonable absolute weight: if carrying 10.12+ in the GN, must have won a Class 1 24f+ chase that season and if carrying 11.02+ it must have been over 26f+.
Of 276 runners: 24% failed the test. Those that failed contributed 0% of the 13 "winners" and 6% of the 35 finishing 1~5.
2. To indicate reasonable mark: from 1 March in the preceding season (to account for those favouring spring ground), must have notched an RPR in a 24f+ chase at least 5lbs > GN Official Rating. If carrying 11.04+, must have been at least 6lbs > GNOR.
58% failed = 15% of winners and 29% of1~5
3. To indicate ability to jump at high cruising speed: must have achieved a RPR over hurdles of 133+ or, if carrying 10.12+ in the GN, 140+.
38% failed = 15% of winners and 20% of 1~5
4. To indicate race suitability: must have won a chase on a left-handed track (if 5+ attempts) and made the frame or finished <10L in a chase with 15+ runners.
24% failed = 0% of winners and 0% of 1~5
5. To indicate form (again allowing for spring-ground pref): must have won a chase since 1 March in preceding season (i.e. in last 13 months).
22% failed = 0% of winners and 3% of 1~5
6. To indicate class at 3m+: must have won over 24f+ a Gr1 anytime or a Class 1 chase or hurdle within the last 3 years.
25% failed = 0% of winners and 11% of 1~5
7. To indicate stamina: must have form either (a) carrying 11.05+ in a Class 2+ chase over 26f+ or Class 3+ over 29f+ or (b) carrying 10.10+ in a Class 1 over 29f+. If carrying 11.02+ in the GN, must tick box (b) with a win.
71% failed = 31% of winners and 37% of 1~5
8. To indicate potential presence of the "Big Heart" gene, potentially to make the difference in the last furlong: must have Wild Risk on damside of pedigree (up to 9th generation).
41% failed = 0% of winners and 37% of 1~5
9. To indicate prep gone to plan: must have 2+ runs in the season, including 1+ before and 1+ from 1 Jan. And, if 3+ runs, must have finished <25L in a 24f+ chase or <10L in any other race.
20% failed = 0% of winners and 6% of 1~5
As a final 10th test, only applied in the event of Soft going, a runner must have won on Soft or softer a Class 1 chase at 25f+ with 11.00+ or at 28f+ with any weight. This test applied only to 2 of the 7 GNs (2016 & 2018), obviously.
BACK-TESTED RESULTS OF THE OVERLAY:
Only 7 (<3%) of the 276 runners over these 7 GNs passed all 9 (or 10) tests. They and their respective finishing positions were:
- Auroras Encore (2013 - won)
- Pineau De Re (2014 - won)
- One For Arthur (2017 - won)
- Cause Of Causes (2017 - 2nd 4.5L)
- Saint Are (2017 - 3rd 8L)
- Tiger Roll (2018 - won)
- Tiger Roll (2019 - won)
Another 17 (6%) of the 276 failed only 1 test. They were:- Cappa Bleu (2013 - 2nd)
- Rocky Creek (2014 - 5th)
- Balthazar King (2014 - 2nd)
- The Druids Nephew (2015 - Fell when leading 6 out)
- Cause Of Causes (2015 - 8th)
- Rule The World (2016 - won)
- Saint Are (PU)
- Blaklion (2017 - 4th)
- Vieux Lion Rouge (2017 - 6th)
- Pleasant Company (2018 - 2nd)
- Raz De Maree (2018 - 10th)
- Houblon Des Obeaux (2018 - Fell 6th)
- Bless The Wings (2018 - 3rd)
- Milansbar (2018 - 5th)
- Rathvinden (2019 - 3rd)
- Magic Of Light (2019 - 2nd)
- Vintage Clouds (2019 - Fell 1st)
So, together, these 0~1 test failures accounted for 9% of all runners but contributed 92% of winners and near-missers (<5L). If every one of them was backed each-way (5 places), 71% of the bets would have made a return.Another 38 runners failed 2 tests. Thus, those with 0~2 fails represented 22% of all 276 runners but contributed 100% of winners and near-missers and 89% of those finishing 1~5 (i.e. only 4 of the 35 to make the frame from 2013 to 2019 failed > 2 tests and none were nearer than 4th).
So, turning to 2021.
Assuming all have an uneventful final prep and that the topweight on 10 April runs off OR168, as things stand right now, of the 60 horses that I think most likely to get an entry that I've put the slide rule over, 6 are rated as "strong place potential" by my original model and also pass the overlay screen:
With 1 fail:
- Magic Of Light (joint top-rated on decent ground) - currently top-price 25/1
- Crosspark (joint top-rated on decent ground) - 50/1
With 2 fails:- Kimberlite Candy (top-rated on Soft) - 28/1
- Cloth Cap (on decent ground only) - 25/1
- Yala Enki (on Soft only) - 50/1
- Vinndication - 40/1 (but may have Gold Cup as target)
By way of interesting outsiders flashing away on the edge of the radar screen, there are 3 currently rated minor place potential with 2 fails, which are:- Kildisart (best chance probably on decent ground) - 50/1
- Give Me A Copper (on decent ground only) - 50/1
- Discorama - 50/1
Please note, there's still lots of wheels spinning away vigorously and there will almost certainly be promotion to and relegation from these lists. More anon.You're very kind.
Looks good on the drawing board but, as always, the best laid plans can go ........
Cheers @meldrew66
Much appreciate your vote of confidence.
Facts yes, though there’s always a large element of subjectivity as to how one defines the parameters of a stat model. My GN model’s been profitable for me for 12 out of the 14 years I’ve used it (hence I keep anoraking away) but it’s always been (and I’m certain always will be) work in progress. Sadly still no Ferrari in my garage.
Tbh, the biggest kick for me comes when one of it’s “wilder” picks brings home the bacon, even if just making the frame.
On which subject, buckle up boys and girls. The handicapper having obliged with a drop in his mark, there's a serious outsider that’s burst into contention.
Has the GN as his stated target, is sure to make the cut and, if he gets decent ground, is now rated by my model as "strong place potential" (2 fails of the Overlay tests is fine, providing it’s a decent surface, though suggests winning's a stretch).
If you thought Crosspark was funky, try this fella for size. Beginning to wonder if my model’s got a virus
Minellacelebration - 100/1
- stayed on strongly to win the Listed Summer Cup over 26f at Uttoxeter last July
- never tried beyond 26.5f but related to classy stayer (twice Whitbread winner) Ad Hoc and Ryalux, strong-finishing winner of the Scottish National on his first try beyond 25f. Has Wild Risk on his damside.
- very much a spring horse (has 62.5% win and 75% frame-making rate in 8 chases Apr~July, compared to 22% wins and 33% frame-making in other months)
- loves flat, left handed tracks, especially Aintree - form reads 1211 over the Mildmay course. Was unlucky to unseat on the flat early in the Becher last December but had jumped and travelled well for a long way on ground too soft a year earlier
- handles any ground (won from Good to Heavy) but a sound surface would suit best
- 2 wins from 5 runs this season (forget 2 subsequent URs - both misfortune), he's "as hard as nails" according to regular pilot Ben Poste and, ignoring those 2 URs and a BD, has a 95% completion rate in 44 chases, hurdles and PtPs (never PU'd)
- the 11yo has just been dropped to OR148 by the handicapper (6lbs below his career high RPR154, set in October over the Mildmay course) and would carry just 10.04 if the topweight runs off 168.
His record in the spring is key to his chances, from my model's perspective, and if he has a prep over fences within a month of the big day, he'd need to confirm that spring form (and thereby his serious contender rating) by making the frame. That said, an earlier spin (just after the weights) might tee him up best for 10 April, as he's won 4 of last 5 runs after a >50 day break.The problem with using a stat-model is weighing up whether or not to take an early price when significant stats are liable to change. But, Bet365 are the only firm offering 100/1 (he’s 66s elsewhere and only 40s with SkyBet) so, as the stake is modest, I've made him the 5th bet on my antepost slip. I just don’t want to miss the chance of screaming at the telly as a 100/1 shot carrying my shilling goes over the last upsides, just like Vic Canvas did a few years back.
And it would be a good old-fashioned GN fairy story for his yard if he were to run a biggy.
Agh, it’ll probably come to nowt but hey ho. One can but dream.
Here's hoping!!
I see there are other 'Minella' horses running. They always seem to do well, don't they?!
So, list of bets placed so far for the GN are:
1. Minella Celebration
2. Native River
3. Milan Native
4. Walk in the Mill
Watch Crosspark go and win it on that basis!
"Where we'll go now I don't know, the trouble is he likes plenty of cut and we'll focus on soft ground. I'd love to see him in a Scottish National one day on really soft ground, but at the back end of the season you're never guaranteed that."
Why not, "I'd love to see him in a GN on really soft ground"? He was an intended runner a year ago, when Nicholls expressed optimism about him handling Aintree-style GS and the fact is (unsurprisingly as they're earlier in April) that there have been more GNs (2 of the last 4) run on Soft than Scottish versions in recent years.
May be his first fence departure in the Becher (on favoured Soft) has deterred connections from risking him again at Aintree even on Soft? It was only YE's 2nd F/UR in 32 chases, so no doubt a big disappointment.
Entries should be out this week and while I expect they'll give him a GN entry to keep options open, I've closed out my positions on YE in case he's a surprise omission.
I'd still want him on my ticket e/w on Soft if he were to run and wouldn't be overly worried about that Becher mishap. Plenty of GN winners and near-missers (pre- and post-fence changes) have tipped up on earlier attempts over the fences (most recently, Pineau de Re tipped up on his debut over them before winning the big one on his next attempt in 2014) and Nicholls would have schooled him over Aintree-style fences if he were to let him take his chance.
Magic Of Light ran well enough to finish 2nd in the mares hurdle at Ascot, beaten by the much superior Roksana. No surprise at the weights and still nicely on track for another tilt at the biggy.
I'd missed that - was too switched onto Scotty, Curbs and Brownie for their very entertaining pre-match chinwag.
Maybe like Native River's owners - just not wanting to risk their fellas. I can understand it and, though it was always a dream of mine to have a GN runner, it would probably have meant divorce
A few likely Irish contenders for Aintree glory squelched their way round a soggy Gowran Park yesterday in the Thyestes, though none with any incentive to draw the attention the handicapper this side of the GN weights-framing.
So nothing particular to note from the runs of Acapella Bourgeois and Class Conti (who at least made an effort to get involved), Any Second Now and Alpha Des Obeaux (who didn't).
The impressive winner, 6 yo Coko Beach, too young to run this year anyway, is NH Chase bound.
Burrows Saint has a similarly unremarkable trot round in a hurdle on the same card.
Tomorrow's Cotswold Chase, which might have seen some English contenders in action, alas has been lost to waterlogging.
Which leaves us with the SkyBet chase at Donny, forecast to be run on Soft (though it rarely gets deep there) and there are several who may have Aintree as their ultimate target.
Former Scottish National winner, 12 yo Takingrisks, and up and comer 8 yo Cap Du Nord (hot favourite for tomorrow, based on his recent second to Royale Pagaille and being 3lb well-in) could both have Aintree in their sights. But, regardless of how they fare, they (and topweight Mister Malarky, despite being from the family of GN 2nd Just So and 4th Dubacilla) are unlikely to have the stat-profiles to make my team.
But 2 others in the 13 strong field very well may:
Aye Right (15/2 tomorrow; 33/1 for the GN)
2nd to Cloth Cap in November's Hennessy (and running off just 1lb higher is currently weighted on level terms on paper with Cloth Cap), a win or near-miss tomorrow could (depending on not prompting too big a hike in the handicap) secure the front-running and strong-jumping 8yo a strong place potential stat-rating for April (at least on decent ground).
Give Me A Copper (16/1 tomorrow; 50/1 for the GN)
The 11 yo son of Presenting is having his second run after a wind op (ran very impressively on return after 357 days to near-miss at Donny in Dec on GS; raised 3lbs for that). Just needs a safe spin to confirm his contending stat-rating for the GN (though, again, assuming no serious handicap raise and decent ground in April.
Should be a belter.
I should have made it clear that we’re still awaiting entries (due imminently, with the weights set to be announced on 16 Feb).
We’re still antepost (not Non-Runner No Bet) so, as you highlight, need to be careful about intentions.
I’m just putting the slide rule over those that have the CV and mark to make it a credible target - some are definitely intended, others unknown and Aye Right is indeed one of the latter.
I’ve seen Harriet quoted as saying the race tomorrow is a good prep for “the Nationals” in the spring and she mooted the Scottish, so maybe they’ll give Aintree a swerve. We’ll see.
Good enough to make Aye Right very interesting indeed if he does go to Aintree (on the small side maybe but the way he jumps and travels, strikes me as the perfect type for the Aintree spruce) and the ground is GS or thereabouts but the presumption seems to be that Ayr is preferred.
Fitzy and Ruby hold the same view as me re the GN being the better target and current 33s is very appealing but sadly not as an antepost bet, so it's a watch and wait for GN entries and NRNB.
Give Me A Copper needs a sound surface (as do many sons of Presenting) and struggled from halfway on tacky and unusually testing ground for Donny. Still very much flashing away on the radar screen for Aintree, providing the rain stops, and should have a lb or two less to carry now.
Takingrisks is such an likeable, stout stayer but, aside from being a tad long in the tooth at 12, just doesn't tick enough of the stat-boxes for a GN.
Sort of wish you hadn't told me that @Bournesnr - missing the win component of my e/w cost me £240
I think the whip drop makes a big difference looking at the strikes and impact on Takingrisks after the last. I'll try to take the positives... Aye Right is going to win a big'un at some point and perhaps another gallant defeat might hide a bit from the handicapper. One to follow for sure as an each way steady eddie but just as you suggest, he's not an Ante Post prospect.
Out of interest Peanuts - do you think it's your revamped model that gives him a squeak when your previous model(s) wouldn't have? 7 chase starts only one win including an unseat and never running over more than 3m 2f would put many off...
Interesting question you ask about the different model's evaluation of him. At the risk of sending you off to the land of nod...........
My existing model (using GN data from 2005-19) rates him solid place potential but short of winning calibre - a stat-profile similar to horses that have finished 10-20L off the "typical" winner 2005~19 (3rd~5th sort of territory).
However, he now scores only 1 fail with the new Overlay to my model. It is subject to his handicap mark remaining broadly as is and to the going (handles soft but doesn't have the profile for a marathon on soft) but it is consistent with a winning/near-missing calibre (in back-testing the Overlay scores Rule The World, Magic Of Light, Rathvinden all with 1 fail for example).
So, you're absolutely right to deduce that, while my existing model would rate him potentially backable e/w, the new Overlay pretty much demands (if the OR and ground conditions are met) that I have him on my team. And I think there's a logical reason for that slightly different evaluation.
Aside from being a different type of stat-screen, the Overlay is based on data purely from GNs 2013-19.
What is notable with GNs since the course changes post-2012 is how much better 8 yos are faring than before.
Some near-misses but there were only 2 8yo winners in 24 GNs 1987-2012, and none from 2003 to 2012.
In contrast, 3 of the 7 GNs from 2013 have been won by 8 yos.
Moreover, the same pattern is seen in the ages of those finishing 1st~4th.
2005~2012, only 5 8yos made the first 4 home (16% of the front 4 places). Since 2013, the figure is 32% (9 of 28) but 8 yos represented only 18% of all runners 2013-19 (50 of 276).
That's a significant outperformance and maybe being an 8yo should be a plus in the Overlay. In fact it's not (at least not at the moment) but the fact that he scores slightly better with the Overlay likely does reflect the fact that his more youthful profile (as an 8yo, less likely to be exposed over an extended trip) is more consistent with that of winners and near-missers since 2012 than with those before.
That near-miss today was significant stat-wise in giving him his first win or near-miss (<5L) in a Class 1 chase over 24f+ and that solitary run over 26f you mention, of course, was a not-stopping 2nd in a major handicap, giving a stone to the winner. I know that Cloth Cap has a fine Scottish National run on his CV (and he's a worthy fancy for the GN - indeed he'll also be on my team on decent ground) but, at current marks, they'd meet again on level terms on that Hennessy run.
As for proven stamina, don't forget Magic of Light (also a front-running 8yo at the time) had no form beyond 24f when near-missing last time. And like MOL, Aye Right has Wild Risk on the damside of his pedigree - indeed he has it via his sire as well, the incomparable stayer Yeats, from whom he probably gets his genuine character.
I just hope we get a chance to see him over the spruce. We'll see.
Apologies if you're now the land of ZZZZZzzzzzzzz
Cheers
I am intrigued that your stat model is bringing to life the popular assessment that the race has fundamentally changed and the more forgiving obstacles now give materially more chance to horses carrying a higher weight and/or those who are progressive chasers. Sweeping generalisation but I remember the "old" model putting up more experienced types with an emphasis on course or marathon trip form whereas the revisions now bring up potentially more classy types and seemingly look for a broader range of qualities; and are more forgiving of the negatives without putting a line through. The 8 year old comment is particularly telling after the last 5 years or so. Have to say I find the tinkering with your model fascinating.