Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance
After yesterday
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%
So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion.
Opta have updated their stats since the last chart posted and it would indicate that we now have a 17.86% chance of promotion. If this is to be believed bookmaker odds of 20/1 look very generous.
The 20/1 odds were for a top 2 finish not promotion.
A Top 2 finish is Auto Promotion, 3-6 is play offs. What am I missing here?
Top 2: 20/1 - Bet365 & William Hill Top 6: 4/5 - Bet365, William Hill & Ladbrokes Promotion: 9/2 - BetVictor (4/1 with most others) To win the Play Offs: 5/1 - Skybet
Opta says 44.28% chance of finishing in the top 6. I would guess a win on Saturday would flip us above orient and give us an above 50% chance
After yesterday
Charlton 44.28% -> 57.30% (autos 1.02% -> 2.48%)
Orient 53.56% -> 28.48%
So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, we have a 57.3% chance of play offs - assume our chances of play off success are 25% once we're there means that, as of today, we have a 14.3% chance of getting promoted via play offs plus 2.5% chance of automatics. Therefore we currently have a 16.8% chance of promotion.
Opta have updated their stats since the last chart posted and it would indicate that we now have a 17.86% chance of promotion. If this is to be believed bookmaker odds of 20/1 look very generous.
The 20/1 odds were for a top 2 finish not promotion.
A Top 2 finish is Auto Promotion, 3-6 is play offs. What am I missing here?
20/1 is for automatic promotion only. The 17.86% figure includes going up via the playoffs which is irrelevant to an automatic promotion bet.
It's looking better and better. Still work to do but we might only need 16 points from our last 12 to finish top 6.
Have to keep the foot on the pedal aiming for 2nd to make sure levels don't drop. We're seeing how quickly Orient are falling away after their own fantastic run of form.
I took 40/1 on top 2 before the birmingham game, with all intentions of laying it off, tonight is the first time I'm considering just running it... if we don't get injuries I can't see us losing many games until the end of the season
Looking better and better every week. Orient's hopes look seriously dented by 4 straight defeats. Will be quite a big turnaround for them to drag themselves back into the top 6. Huddersfield have been on a slow but steady decline for a while now, they look most likely of the current top 6 to drop out of the playoff places. Bolton look rejuvenated and will be dangerous side - great result for them tonight, glad we don't have to play them again in the regular season at least. Second is not impossible but still a long long way off and not realistic even given the hot streak we are on. I think now the focus is can we get 3rd or 4th and secure home advangtage in teh second leg of a play-off semi?
Wrexham (3rd) v Bolton (6th) Charlton (4th) v Stockport (5th)
is my current prediction.
Would swap Bolton ans Stockport around, but think that's probably the most likely outcome
I hate you for putting that fixture in my head... We've such a torrid record against Bolton, I wouldnt trust us to beat them again, even after doing the double against them this season.
Pretty much every game is a must win game now, but Saturday is the must-winningest of all the games IMO, the chance to leapfrog Stockport, with a game in hand and hopefully a GD that's as good as theirs will be huge
Pretty much every game is a must win game now, but Saturday is the must-winningest of all the games IMO, the chance to leapfrog Stockport, with a game in hand and hopefully a GD that's as good as theirs will be huge
I'd take a draw then beat Crawley, hopefully, to go above them.
22 more points, or 6 wins and 4 draws will get us to 75 points, which will probably be enough but might be tight and would leave a greater risk that it comes down to goal difference.
25 points, or , is likely to get us home safely and reduces the risk of goal difference coming into play.
80 points or more probably gets us 5th or higher and, theoretically, an easier semi final opponent. Maybe home advantage in the second leg if we can make it to 4th.
Games to come against sides currently in the bottom half of the table (8): - Home: Wigan, Lincoln, Northampton, Burton. - Away: Crawley, Peterborough, Mansfield, Cambridge.
and vs. current top half teams (6): - Home: Barnsley, Huddersfield. - Away: Orient, Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham
Now, it’s League One and we are Charlton so things are never this simple, but if we can win 7 of those 8 “easier” games and draw the other, then we could, theoretically, get to 78 points without having to win any of those tougher looking fixtures and needing to pick up just 3 points from those 6 games. Win all 8 and we’d be on 77 points and might not need a single point from the 6 tougher fixtures.
Obviously the more points we can take off, particularly, the likes or Orient, Stockport, Barnsley, and Huddersfield the better and perhaps the lower the points target becomes. The way we are playing right now, I would not bet against us picking up some decent points in some of those fixtures, but the point is we’ve now put ourselves in a position where it isn’t essential we do that and things are very much in our own hands.
For that reason I don’t want the significance of the Orient game to become overblown. I thought that happened a bit vs. Birmingham and we played the occasion more than the opponent for a chunk of the game which was damaging to our performance. Saturday is a great opportunity but it doesn’t define the rest of our season and if we lose there is plenty of time and opportunity to recover. Even a point would be a good step towards our goal.
Since I posted this we've had two wins so now its 4 wins and 4 draws will get us to 75 points or 5 wins and 4 draws to get us to a safer 78 points.
If 90 points is the target for second (and it may not be quite that high this season) then we'd need 10 wins and 1 draw from our last 12 games with three of those being away to teams currently above us in the table. That is quite an ask when, even in the fantastic run we've been on, in our last 12 games we've had 8 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. I think we'd have to, at the very least, repeat our form over the previous 12 for the final 12 to stand an outside chance of getting second and even that would only get us to 85 points.
Updated fixtures (Lincoln have moved into the top half)
Games to come against sides currently in the bottom half of the table (7): - Home: Wigan, Northampton, Burton. - Away: Crawley, Peterborough, Mansfield, Cambridge.
and vs. current top half teams (5): - Home: Huddersfield, Lincoln. - Away: Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham
Should we eventually make the play-offs, there's encouragement to be taken from our record against the current top 10 sides, at least as it stands - 4 big games to come and an opportunity to make our away record look a bit better:
Top 2 is way out of sight but top 6 is now a definite possibility. After Oriient's recent demise I would say (for us) it only goes down as far as Reading, and even they are 6 points off us if you take GD into account.
Still think we'll need at least 76 points......maybe even as much as 78. I did say on the Post Match thread we might need 80 points but now rowing back on that a little.
Although not losing to Stockport & Huddersfield looks crucial it's now more important that we make sure the pack don't catch us. Beating Bolton, Orient & Barnsley has put them on the back foot & made us the ones to catch. So to me it's more about keeping ahead of the pack than beating the ones above us.
Another 18-20 points should see us in the play offs. 6 wins & 2 draws would do nicely but I'd take or 5 wins & 3 draws.
And PS. Our game in hand is away at Crawley. Dont bank on that being a foregone conclusion. As we all know.....we often do worse against poor teams.
Top 2 is way out of sight but top 6 is now a definite possibility. After Oriient's recent demise I would say (for us) it only goes down as far as Reading, and even they are 6 points off us if you take GD into account.
Still think we'll need at least 76 points......maybe even as much as 78. I did say on the Post Match thread we might need 80 points but now rowing back on that a little.
Although not losing to Stockport & Huddersfield looks crucial it's now more important that we make sure the pack don't catch us. Beating Bolton, Orient & Barnsley has put them on the back foot & made us the ones to catch. So to me it's more about keeping ahead of the pack than beating the ones above us.
Another 18-20 points should see us in the play offs. 6 wins & 2 draws would do nicely but I'd take or 5 wins & 3 draws.
And PS. Our game in hand is away at Crawley. Dont bank on that being a foregone conclusion. As we all know.....we often do worse against poor teams.
Hardly way out of sight is it? 8 points with 12 games left and we still have to play them.
We've made up 9 points on Wycombe in the last 10 games, and they have a very difficult run in. 9 of their 12 remaining games are against sides currently in the top half.
Reading and Stockport drawing. Hudders and Orient losing. It’s a good night.
That slightly fortunate win at Bolton looks huge now, based on their current form.
The drawback of that win at Bolton is that it got Evatt sacked. They were going nowhere with him in charge, but now look a real threat!
With any luck, there’s a touch of new manager bounce going on at Bolton which will revert to normal service for the same players that were not performing under Evatt
Comments
Top 2: 20/1 - Bet365 & William Hill
Top 6: 4/5 - Bet365, William Hill & Ladbrokes
Promotion: 9/2 - BetVictor (4/1 with most others)
To win the Play Offs: 5/1 - Skybet
20/1 is for automatic promotion only. The 17.86% figure includes going up via the playoffs which is irrelevant to an automatic promotion bet.
Have to keep the foot on the pedal aiming for 2nd to make sure levels don't drop. We're seeing how quickly Orient are falling away after their own fantastic run of form.
Charlton (4th) v Stockport (5th)
is my current prediction.
If 90 points is the target for second (and it may not be quite that high this season) then we'd need 10 wins and 1 draw from our last 12 games with three of those being away to teams currently above us in the table. That is quite an ask when, even in the fantastic run we've been on, in our last 12 games we've had 8 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. I think we'd have to, at the very least, repeat our form over the previous 12 for the final 12 to stand an outside chance of getting second and even that would only get us to 85 points.
Updated fixtures (Lincoln have moved into the top half)
Games to come against sides currently in the bottom half of the table (7):
- Home: Wigan, Northampton, Burton.
- Away: Crawley, Peterborough, Mansfield, Cambridge.
and vs. current top half teams (5):
- Home: Huddersfield, Lincoln.
- Away: Stockport, Wycombe, Wrexham
But do we change this thread to Will we get Promoted? (or shall we wait for the end of the season before that)
Orient have lost 4 in a row, Reading are drawing too many games, while Barnsley are now 6 points off 6th.
A decent team will finish 7th and just miss out.
But in December if you'd said we'll be 5th with a game in hand in March, you'd have been met with an even stronger dismissal.
Football is football, and stranger things have happened.
Still think we'll need at least 76 points......maybe even as much as 78. I did say on the Post Match thread we might need 80 points but now rowing back on that a little.
Although not losing to Stockport & Huddersfield looks crucial it's now more important that we make sure the pack don't catch us. Beating Bolton, Orient & Barnsley has put them on the back foot & made us the ones to catch. So to me it's more about keeping ahead of the pack than beating the ones above us.
Another 18-20 points should see us in the play offs. 6 wins & 2 draws would do nicely but I'd take or 5 wins & 3 draws.
And PS. Our game in hand is away at Crawley. Dont bank on that being a foregone conclusion. As we all know.....we often do worse against poor teams.
We've made up 9 points on Wycombe in the last 10 games, and they have a very difficult run in. 9 of their 12 remaining games are against sides currently in the top half.