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League One Relegation Watch 2024

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  • 50 points.

    With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe. 
    Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.

    Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.

    Absolutely no chance.
    Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another. 

    I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
  • 50 points.

    With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe. 
    Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.

    Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.

    Absolutely no chance.
    Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another. 

    I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
    Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.
  • 50 points.

    With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe. 
    Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.

    Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.

    Absolutely no chance.
    Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another. 

    I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
    Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.
    Correcting myself… It’d be (in CTFC, PVFC, BAFC order)

    - 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or
    - 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or
    - 53, 55, 52 if Burton won

    So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).
  • 50 points.

    With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe. 
    Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.

    Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.

    Absolutely no chance.
    Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another. 

    I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
    Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.
    Correcting myself… It’d be (in CTFC, PVFC, BAFC order)

    - 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or
    - 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or
    - 53, 55, 52 if Burton won

    So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).
    Even if Burton and Cheltenham were to overtake us, you would still need at least three of Reading, Shrewsbury, Cambridge and Port Vale to ALSO overtake us to push us into the bottom 4.  Extremely unlikely
  • I've been of a more nervous disposition than many concerning fears of relegation, but there is no right or wrong outlook as we don't all see things the same way. However, after Barnsley, even I'm no longer worried 🙂
  • Not been to any of Cheltenham, Burton.or Vale grounds and would ear mark them for next season so hopefully Cambridge, Shrews or Reading can fall back!
    I’m hoping Cheltenham stay up because it’s the nearest ground to where I live. Nice club too.
    Not sure why, but always thought you were over Romford way @lordromford
  • Cheltenham play Carlisle in a must win game tonight, while Fleetwood need to win at their neighbours Blackpool to have any small chance of survival.
  • I’d like Cheltenham to stay up, because it would be a superb comeback after the start they had. 
  • Win tonight Carlisle win we stay up
  • edited April 10
    Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.

    After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points. 

    But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
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  • Posh 1 Port Vale 0. Present score
  • Posh 2-0 - 56 minutes
  • ross1 said:
    Posh 2-0 - 56 minutes
    PV back in the bottom 4 on GD
  • If Cheltenham fail to win on Sat we are mathematically safe even if we lose all our remaining games (bar an unlikely swing of 23 goals for Cheltenham and them winning all their remaining games).

  • edited April 10
    We need a draw then Burton and port Vale can’t catch us .26/28 goal difference better
  • Posh could still catch Derby, and they still have Fleetwood and Cheltenham to play.
  • Almost there 
  • Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.

    After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points. 

    But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
    After Port Vale's defeat tonight, we have maximum tallies of the following:

    - Cheltenham (53)
    - Burton (52)
    - Port Vale (52)

    Port Vale's fixtures: Exeter (H), Wycombe (H), Bolton (A), Cambridge (H)
    Burton's fixtures: Stevenage (A), Cheltenham (H), Reading (H), Fleetwood (A)
    Cheltenham's fixtures: Bristol R (H), Burton (A), Lincoln (H), Peterborough (H), Stevenage (A)
  • Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.

    After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points. 

    But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
    After Port Vale's defeat tonight, we have maximum tallies of the following:

    - Cheltenham (53)
    - Burton (52)
    - Port Vale (52)

    Port Vale's fixtures: Exeter (H), Wycombe (H), Bolton (A), Cambridge (H)
    Burton's fixtures: Stevenage (A), Cheltenham (H), Reading (H), Fleetwood (A)
    Cheltenham's fixtures: Bristol R (H), Burton (A), Lincoln (H), Peterborough (H), Stevenage (A)
    So if any of those 3 fail to win on Saturday they can’t catch us even if we lose. If we win, we are safe no matter what any of these do.
  • 17
    Reading
    431510186163-249
    18
    Shrewsbury Town
    42137223159-2846
    19
    Cambridge United
    41129203757-2045
    20
    Burton Albion
    421010223359-2640

    21

    Port Vale

    42

    10

    10

    22

    38

    66

    -28

    40
    22
    Cheltenham Town
    41108233457-2338
    23
    Fleetwood Town
    42713224268-2634
    24
    Carlisle United
    4379274075-3530

    Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
    Fleetwood Town v Northampton Town
    Port Vale v Exeter City
    Stevenage v Burton Albion
    Charlton Athletic v Cambridge United
    Shrewsbury Town v Wycombe Wanders

    Think really today it's all about the Port Vale, Cheltenham and Burton games. 

    Can't see Cambridge or Shrewsbury getting caught up in the fight now. 
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  • Port Vale and Cheltenham lose. Burton win. A big step forward for Burton.

    Cheltenham can still catch Burton but they must beat them in midweek.
  • Think we can sink this thread now bottom four are gone. 
  • Think we can sink this thread now bottom four are gone. 
    Port Vale will still be hopeful of climbing out of it…

    But if Burton beat Cheltenham in midweek, I think you’re right.
  • Fleets last 3 - Peterboro, Orient, Burton - basically have to win all 3 and even then relying on others - think they're toast

    Chelts last 4 - Burton, Lincoln, Peterboro, Stevenage - HAVE to beat Burton, but even then I would still make them massive underdogs because they need 2 wins minimum (3 if they don't beat Burton) - think they are toast as well.

    Vale last 3; Wycombe, Bolton, Cambridge - GD a bit against them and I think they would need to pick up 2 wins minimum - i'd say they have the bigger chance but ironically they NEED Chelts to beat Burton, even a draw probably hurts them because of the GD.

    Burton - well we know 2 games the other is against Reading - they just have to not get beat by Chelts in my estimation. 


    Based on all that i'm revising down my predicted points total to be safe to 44.
  • edited April 13
    16
    Charlton Athletic
    441119146363052
    17
    Reading
    441511186365-250
    18
    Cambridge United
    421210203858-2046
    19
    Shrewsbury Town
    43137233161-3046
    20
    Burton Albion
    431110223560-2543

    21

    Port Vale

    43

    10

    10

    23

    40

    70

    -30

    40
    22
    Cheltenham Town
    42108243560-2538
    23
    Fleetwood Town
    43813224468-2437
    24
    Carlisle United
    4479284076-3630

    Wouldn't say it's over just yet...

    A Burton win midweek though would make things pretty much done and dusted. 
  • That second half collapse will have killed Vale's confidence. 2-0 up until the 57th minute, then going on to lose 4-2. What an awful result.
  • Fleetwood could go down tonight. Up against Peterborough looking for a reaction after getting thumped at the weekend. 

    Fleetwood in front after 17 seconds!
  • Fleetwood could go down tonight. Up against Peterborough looking for a reaction after getting thumped at the weekend. 

    Fleetwood in front after 17 seconds!
    Oh Lord. Please let Fleetwood go down so we don't have to watch us play up there again.
  • Wycombe in front at Port Vale
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