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League One Relegation Watch 2024
Comments
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Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.lordromford said:
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.golfaddick said:50 points.
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though2 -
Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.Manic_mania said:
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.lordromford said:
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.golfaddick said:50 points.
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though1 -
Correcting myself… It’d be (in CTFC, PVFC, BAFC order)Callumcafc said:
Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.Manic_mania said:
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.lordromford said:
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.golfaddick said:50 points.
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
- 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or
- 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or
- 53, 55, 52 if Burton won
So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).0 -
Even if Burton and Cheltenham were to overtake us, you would still need at least three of Reading, Shrewsbury, Cambridge and Port Vale to ALSO overtake us to push us into the bottom 4. Extremely unlikelyCallumcafc said:
Correcting myself… It’d be (in CTFC, PVFC, BAFC order)Callumcafc said:
Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.Manic_mania said:
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.lordromford said:
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.golfaddick said:50 points.
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
- 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or
- 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or
- 53, 55, 52 if Burton won
So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).3 -
I've been of a more nervous disposition than many concerning fears of relegation, but there is no right or wrong outlook as we don't all see things the same way. However, after Barnsley, even I'm no longer worried 🙂1
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Not sure why, but always thought you were over Romford way @lordromfordlordromford said:
I’m hoping Cheltenham stay up because it’s the nearest ground to where I live. Nice club too.Athletico Charlton said:Not been to any of Cheltenham, Burton.or Vale grounds and would ear mark them for next season so hopefully Cambridge, Shrews or Reading can fall back!2 -
Cheltenham play Carlisle in a must win game tonight, while Fleetwood need to win at their neighbours Blackpool to have any small chance of survival.0
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I’d like Cheltenham to stay up, because it would be a superb comeback after the start they had.3
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Win tonight Carlisle win we stay up0
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Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.0 - Sponsored links:
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Posh 1 Port Vale 0. Present score0
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Posh 2-0 - 56 minutes0
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PV back in the bottom 4 on GDross1 said:Posh 2-0 - 56 minutes0 -
If Cheltenham fail to win on Sat we are mathematically safe even if we lose all our remaining games (bar an unlikely swing of 23 goals for Cheltenham and them winning all their remaining games).
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We need a draw then Burton and port Vale can’t catch us .26/28 goal difference better1
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Posh could still catch Derby, and they still have Fleetwood and Cheltenham to play.0
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Almost there0
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After Port Vale's defeat tonight, we have maximum tallies of the following:Callumcafc said:Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
- Cheltenham (53)
- Burton (52)
- Port Vale (52)
Port Vale's fixtures: Exeter (H), Wycombe (H), Bolton (A), Cambridge (H)
Burton's fixtures: Stevenage (A), Cheltenham (H), Reading (H), Fleetwood (A)
Cheltenham's fixtures: Bristol R (H), Burton (A), Lincoln (H), Peterborough (H), Stevenage (A)2 -
So if any of those 3 fail to win on Saturday they can’t catch us even if we lose. If we win, we are safe no matter what any of these do.Callumcafc said:
After Port Vale's defeat tonight, we have maximum tallies of the following:Callumcafc said:Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
- Cheltenham (53)
- Burton (52)
- Port Vale (52)
Port Vale's fixtures: Exeter (H), Wycombe (H), Bolton (A), Cambridge (H)
Burton's fixtures: Stevenage (A), Cheltenham (H), Reading (H), Fleetwood (A)
Cheltenham's fixtures: Bristol R (H), Burton (A), Lincoln (H), Peterborough (H), Stevenage (A)2 -
17 Reading43 15 10 18 61 63 -2 49 18 Shrewsbury Town42 13 7 22 31 59 -28 46 19 Cambridge United41 12 9 20 37 57 -20 45 20 Burton Albion42 10 10 22 33 59 -26 40
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Port Vale
42
10
10
22
38
66
-28
4022 Cheltenham Town41 10 8 23 34 57 -23 38 23 Fleetwood Town42 7 13 22 42 68 -26 34 24 Carlisle United43 7 9 27 40 75 -35 30
Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town v Northampton Town
Port Vale v Exeter City
Stevenage v Burton Albion
Charlton Athletic v Cambridge United
Shrewsbury Town v Wycombe Wanders
Think really today it's all about the Port Vale, Cheltenham and Burton games.
Can't see Cambridge or Shrewsbury getting caught up in the fight now.0 - Sponsored links:
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Port Vale and Cheltenham lose. Burton win. A big step forward for Burton.
Cheltenham can still catch Burton but they must beat them in midweek.0 -
Think we can sink this thread now bottom four are gone.0
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Port Vale will still be hopeful of climbing out of it…Sillybilly said:Think we can sink this thread now bottom four are gone.
But if Burton beat Cheltenham in midweek, I think you’re right.0 -
Fleets last 3 - Peterboro, Orient, Burton - basically have to win all 3 and even then relying on others - think they're toast
Chelts last 4 - Burton, Lincoln, Peterboro, Stevenage - HAVE to beat Burton, but even then I would still make them massive underdogs because they need 2 wins minimum (3 if they don't beat Burton) - think they are toast as well.
Vale last 3; Wycombe, Bolton, Cambridge - GD a bit against them and I think they would need to pick up 2 wins minimum - i'd say they have the bigger chance but ironically they NEED Chelts to beat Burton, even a draw probably hurts them because of the GD.
Burton - well we know 2 games the other is against Reading - they just have to not get beat by Chelts in my estimation.
Based on all that i'm revising down my predicted points total to be safe to 44.1 -
16 Charlton Athletic44 11 19 14 63 63 0 52 17 Reading44 15 11 18 63 65 -2 50 18 Cambridge United42 12 10 20 38 58 -20 46 19 Shrewsbury Town43 13 7 23 31 61 -30 46 20 Burton Albion43 11 10 22 35 60 -25 43
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Port Vale
43
10
10
23
40
70
-30
4022 Cheltenham Town42 10 8 24 35 60 -25 38 23 Fleetwood Town43 8 13 22 44 68 -24 37 24 Carlisle United44 7 9 28 40 76 -36 30
Wouldn't say it's over just yet...
A Burton win midweek though would make things pretty much done and dusted.0 -
That second half collapse will have killed Vale's confidence. 2-0 up until the 57th minute, then going on to lose 4-2. What an awful result.1
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Massive game between Burton and Cheltenham tonight, which Cheltenham have to win to stand any chance of survival.
I'm sure everyone in Barcelona and Dortmund will have one eye on this key 6 pointer.5 -
Fleetwood could go down tonight. Up against Peterborough looking for a reaction after getting thumped at the weekend.
Fleetwood in front after 17 seconds!0 -
Oh Lord. Please let Fleetwood go down so we don't have to watch us play up there again.DyerConsequences said:Fleetwood could go down tonight. Up against Peterborough looking for a reaction after getting thumped at the weekend.
Fleetwood in front after 17 seconds!4 -
Wycombe in front at Port Vale0
