Climate Emergency

cantersaddick

ShootersHillGuru said:

I’ve thought all along that climate change wont be taken totally seriously until there is a major catastrophe in one of the worlds great cities and it probably needs to be in the USA for them to wake up to what’s needed. Dreadful to think it’s going to need massive loss of life and destruction on a large scale for the world to wake up. I think tipping point is very close if it’s not already been reached. It’s a terrifying prospect ahead of us.

The recent hurricane Milton which hit Florida and claimed lives was only able to get so big and grow so fast because of unprecedented ocean temperatures south of there and down to the Caribbean. And that it wasn't even the first big hurricane this season (although it did make the others seem tiny in comparison) should have been a wake up call but I've seen videos of Americans claiming it was government made in order for them to clear space to mine lithium (which definitely isn't found in Florida). 

Stu_of_Kunming

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

swordfish

Stu_of_Kunming said:

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

I have my own reasons for not converting to an EV based on my projected emissions from my existing ICE compare to what it uses up in Co2 to make an EV as it would take minimum of 6-7 years before it that initial outlay got offset. If we see a significant increase in worldwide EV car sales in the short term, with ICE's taken off the road long before they're expected lifespan, that will cause a huge increase in material extraction, car production, and scrappage associated carbon emissions quickly using up a significant amount of what remaining carbon budget there is before tipping points are exceeded, assuming they haven't been already.

I accept its not the same calculation for all though. My car is high mpg and I do a low mileage. I'm just saying it isn't all to do with inconvenience, and I'm proactively doing lots to reduce my footprint, most recently making significant dietary changes in the last few months. 

I will say trying to be green is time consuming and I'm fortunate to be able to have the time to research the various things I'm doing and decisions I'm making. I'm aware that others don't have that luxury so don't want to appear over critical.

Do I think it's too late. Yes, but I'll be damned if I'm not going to do my bit before I shuffle off.

Looks like I picked the wrong day to stay off CL. This is the only thread I bookmark. Thanks SHG. I'm just off to burn some old car tyres 🤣

Stu_of_Kunming

There are certainly valid reasons to doubt the viability of EVs, but that’s not what seems to be on the minds of the majority, it’s mostly how ‘my life will be slightly harder, so I’m out’ 

swordfish

Stu_of_Kunming said:

There are certainly valid reasons to doubt the viability of EVs, but that’s not what seems to be on the minds of the majority, it’s mostly how ‘my life will be slightly harder, so I’m out’ 

Agreed. However, Even the minority of skeptics will find changes forced on them in the coming years 

You only have to see how life's been made more difficult for smokers, since the weight of scientific evidence that they were bad for your health was acted on, to see that the JSO protestors of today sounding the climate change fire alarm will one day be replaced by protestors feeling inconvenienced by the attempts to put out the fire trying to resist them.

blackpool72

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

ShootersHillGuru

Stu_of_Kunming said:

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

It’s an interesting point. On the EV thread I’ve written today that when I change my car in early 2025 I won’t be going down the EV route. Selfishness ? Possibly but I’m still less than convinced by the green credentials and certainly the inconvenience issues to me are important. Perhaps we (I) need that kick up the backside and forced down the EV route but my view is that unless EV infrastructure is massively improved and car ranges are significantly improved it’s literally going to take mandate to make the necessary changes to make it all work.

Stu_of_Kunming

ShootersHillGuru said:

Stu_of_Kunming said:

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

It’s an interesting point. On the EV thread I’ve written today that when I change my car in early 2025 I won’t be going down the EV route. Selfishness ? Possibly but I’m still less than convinced by the green credentials and certainly the inconvenience issues to me are important. Perhaps we (I) need that kick up the backside and forced down the EV route but my view is that unless EV infrastructure is massively improved and car ranges are significantly improved it’s literally going to take mandate to make the necessary changes to make it all work.

I think the vast majority of required changes will require mandating and democracy will ensure that won’t ever happen.

Selfishness will doom us all. (And I’m just as guilty as most) 

bobmunro

blackpool72 said:

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

The known reserves of oil will last about 50 years - the reality is much longer as oil reserves are continuously being found.

We will use it all as there are way too many vested interests to stop the wells.

swordfish

bobmunro said:

blackpool72 said:

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

The known reserves of oil will last about 50 years - the reality is much longer as oil reserves are continuously being found.

We will use it all as there are way too many vested interests to stop the wells.

I don't think the tobacco plant is in trouble and there are plenty of vested interests in that market who have had to accept changes and can no longer defy the evidence to sabotage initiatives to improve public health. 

I do see some similarities as the weight of evidence of the earth heating up is more convincing, but I see little happening at the moment to suggest your prediction is wrong. 

Ross

blackpool72 said:

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

Disagree. Petrol and diesel cars, if maintained, can be ran for decades. Even when the mandate comes in for no new petrol and diesel cars to be produced and sold in 2035, people will still drive ones purchased years previously, and still buy second hand ones. The only way that the impact of petrol and diesel cars can be lessened are by increasing fuel duty and VED until people are effectively priced out of running them.

However, that will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity and VED on EVs to claw back the millions lost in taxation by less petrol and diesel cars on the road.

However, there is still the longetivity issue of EVs. Batteries degrade over time, which in turn affects their ability to hold charge, and some EVs on the road now have seen their overall range decrease over their life cycle. You can't maintain an EV like you can an ICE vehicle, so what happens to those vehicles? An expensive cost of battery replacement? Scrapped and recycled? 

Hex

ShootersHillGuru said:

Stu_of_Kunming said:

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

It’s an interesting point. On the EV thread I’ve written today that when I change my car in early 2025 I won’t be going down the EV route. Selfishness ? Possibly but I’m still less than convinced by the green credentials and certainly the inconvenience issues to me are important. Perhaps we (I) need that kick up the backside and forced down the EV route but my view is that unless EV infrastructure is massively improved and car ranges are significantly improved it’s literally going to take mandate to make the necessary changes to make it all work.

Can I ask a simple question - what evidence of an inadequate infrastructure have you witnessed firsthand ?

Hex

bobmunro said:

blackpool72 said:

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

The known reserves of oil will last about 50 years - the reality is much longer as oil reserves are continuously being found.

We will use it all as there are way too many vested interests to stop the wells.

Too true and made much worse because too many people are too willing to share the misinformation the vested interests produce.

Hex

Ross said:

blackpool72 said:

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

Disagree. Petrol and diesel cars, if maintained, can be ran for decades. Even when the mandate comes in for no new petrol and diesel cars to be produced and sold in 2035, people will still drive ones purchased years previously, and still buy second hand ones. The only way that the impact of petrol and diesel cars can be lessened are by increasing fuel duty and VED until people are effectively priced out of running them.

However, that will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity and VED on EVs to claw back the millions lost in taxation by less petrol and diesel cars on the road.

However, there is still the longetivity issue of EVs. Batteries degrade over time, which in turn affects their ability to hold charge, and some EVs on the road now have seen their overall range decrease over their life cycle. You can't maintain an EV like you can an ICE vehicle, so what happens to those vehicles? An expensive cost of battery replacement? Scrapped and recycled? 

As highlighted by a poster previously, as petrol and diesel cars fade away, 
then so will the supporting infrastructure.  There will be fewer and fewer petrol stations as sites are converted to rapid EV charging.  And those who steadfastly refuse to move away from their ICEs will be on here complaining they didn’t see it coming and can’t afford to change.

Ross

Hex said:

Ross said:

blackpool72 said:

If we stop producing Petrol and Diesel vehicles then people will have to switch. 
It's down to governments around the world to legislate for change. 
All the while Petrol and Diesel vehicles are being produced people will continue to buy them.

Disagree. Petrol and diesel cars, if maintained, can be ran for decades. Even when the mandate comes in for no new petrol and diesel cars to be produced and sold in 2035, people will still drive ones purchased years previously, and still buy second hand ones. The only way that the impact of petrol and diesel cars can be lessened are by increasing fuel duty and VED until people are effectively priced out of running them.

However, that will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity and VED on EVs to claw back the millions lost in taxation by less petrol and diesel cars on the road.

However, there is still the longetivity issue of EVs. Batteries degrade over time, which in turn affects their ability to hold charge, and some EVs on the road now have seen their overall range decrease over their life cycle. You can't maintain an EV like you can an ICE vehicle, so what happens to those vehicles? An expensive cost of battery replacement? Scrapped and recycled? 

As highlighted by a poster previously, as petrol and diesel cars fade away, 
then so will the supporting infrastructure.  There will be fewer and fewer petrol stations as sites are converted to rapid EV charging.  And those who steadfastly refuse to move away from their ICEs will be on here complaining they didn’t see it coming and can’t afford to change.

When you can buy an EV for a couple of grand that will be capable of going 400 miles before charging, with that charging being completed in 5 minutes then excellent.

ShootersHillGuru

Hex said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Stu_of_Kunming said:

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

It’s an interesting point. On the EV thread I’ve written today that when I change my car in early 2025 I won’t be going down the EV route. Selfishness ? Possibly but I’m still less than convinced by the green credentials and certainly the inconvenience issues to me are important. Perhaps we (I) need that kick up the backside and forced down the EV route but my view is that unless EV infrastructure is massively improved and car ranges are significantly improved it’s literally going to take mandate to make the necessary changes to make it all work.

Can I ask a simple question - what evidence of an inadequate infrastructure have you witnessed firsthand ?

I drive down a street full of terraced houses with no charging points. Not sure what percentage of our housing stock is streets like this or semi- detached with no drives ? How will these homes charge their cars without serious and that’s extremely serious infrastructure investment and without significant inconvenience to those EV car owners when 90% of the cars are EV’s ? I just can’t see it.

Wheresmeticket

ShootersHillGuru said:

I’ve thought all along that climate change wont be taken totally seriously until there is a major catastrophe in one of the worlds great cities and it probably needs to be in the USA for them to wake up to what’s needed. Dreadful to think it’s going to need massive loss of life and destruction on a large scale for the world to wake up. I think tipping point is very close if it’s not already been reached. It’s a terrifying prospect ahead of us.

The issue is that that is likely to be in one of the poorer parts of the developing world.  There is catastrophic loss of life taking place routinely outside the "west" and this is just as routinely ignored, so no reason to think people won't just turn over the channel or click to another page until, as Swordfish says, they open the door and Mr Climate change punches them in the face.  That may be some way away for us lot in the top 10% of wealthy nations / populations and by that time it will be waaay too late to make any difference at all.  As evidenced by the niggly little arguments about the pros and cons of electric vehicles, as if it was reasonable to take opposing positions on fossil fuels.  So inadequate it would be funny if it wasn't so terrible.

BigRedEvil

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckmgmdxg254t

72 dead in Spain due to flash flooding 

Wheresmeticket

BigRedEvil said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckmgmdxg254t

72 dead in Spain due to flash flooding 

Scanning through that not ONE use of the phrases "climate change" or "global warning" or "environmental disaster".  

Billy_Mix

ShootersHillGuru said:

Hex said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Stu_of_Kunming said:

A Quick Look on the electric car thread will show you how doomed we are, the slightest sign of inconvenience and the majority are simply not interested, the only real solution would involve serious change for everyone. As a species we’re

It’s an interesting point. On the EV thread I’ve written today that when I change my car in early 2025 I won’t be going down the EV route. Selfishness ? Possibly but I’m still less than convinced by the green credentials and certainly the inconvenience issues to me are important. Perhaps we (I) need that kick up the backside and forced down the EV route but my view is that unless EV infrastructure is massively improved and car ranges are significantly improved it’s literally going to take mandate to make the necessary changes to make it all work.

Can I ask a simple question - what evidence of an inadequate infrastructure have you witnessed firsthand ?

I drive down a street full of terraced houses with no charging points. Not sure what percentage of our housing stock is streets like this or semi- detached with no drives ? How will these homes charge their cars without serious and that’s extremely serious infrastructure investment and without significant inconvenience to those EV car owners when 90% of the cars are EV’s ? I just can’t see it.

The infrastructure needs truly massive investment long before we get to installing car chargers along every residential street.
The existing electricity grid is nowhere nearly fit for current purpose, let alone capable of carrying all the energy required to replace hydrocarbons in personal transport
The national grid is incapable of taking in the amount of North Sea windfarm generated power as it is
All that anti-windpower clamour you hear about "those turbines are usually stationary" ain't because the turbines are bust but more to do with how little capacity there is to absorb the potentially (see what I did there?) available energy.
None of the nimbys want pylons and cables cost billions to dig up the countryside so nothing has happened under the torys to keep the NG up to spec for the windpower that's already available.
That ain't likely to change quickly enough
A mate of mine works for one of the electricity network contractors mainly on the bits of the grid between the substations and our houses
Unless your nearest substation and the attendant mains cabling was built and installed in the last decade, at most, it ain't specified high enough to support multi-phase car charging and certainly not if/when multiple neighbours start installing their wallboxes and charging up their EVs overnight
Lots of the domestic electricity supply was installed between the wars and that's all single phase.
Our nearest substation is within sight of the house, serves barely a couple of dozen houses and we consistently have discernible voltage dips throughout the winter - flickering lights and when we switch on something high drain eg oven, kettle everything pauses for a split second. There simply isn't enough cable to carry today's demand.
 Unless and until the grid is brought into the 2nd half of the 20th century, let alone the 21st, electrical power for cars and domestic heating is an enviromentalist's day dream and a rose tinted fairy drenched one at that 

Hex

That's the problem.  All of these events (catastrophes) can correctly be identified as just 'weather'.  The fact that they are not mutually exclusive can easily be ignored .... until it is so blatantly obvious, even Trump would admit it ..... or maybe not !

Leuth

Buckle up

cantersaddick

The world's largest exporter of natural gas has just elected a climate denier. 🙄 

cantersaddick

Saw a stat (might be tok tok wisdom so haven't yet verified) but it was stating that half of the world's shipping is used to simply transport fossil fuels around. Adding to that was that over 60% of fossil fuels are used in the refining and transporting of fossil fuels. 

If true (a quick Google doesn't give the same combined stat but the refining and transporting separately look about right) it shows how easy it actually would be to move away from fossil fuels. We only need to replace about 40%. Maybe more like 50 if we're realistic about other forms of production to replace refining fossil fuels.

swordfish

cantersaddick said:

The world's largest exporter of natural gas has just elected a climate denier. 🙄 

I seriously doubt that many of those who voted for him don't believe the surface of the earth is heating up, and he won't find a credible scientific adviser who denies it is, but I guess climate concerns weren't top priority in the election.  Will they ever be? 

ShootersHillGuru

swordfish said:

cantersaddick said:

The world's largest exporter of natural gas has just elected a climate denier. 🙄 

I seriously doubt that many of those who voted for him don't believe the surface of the earth is heating up, and he won't find a credible scientific adviser who denies it is, but I guess climate concerns weren't top priority in the election.  Will they ever be? 

Sadly I doubt Trump looks for too much advice. 

ME14addick

Perhaps it will take his Mar a Largo estate to be devasted by a hurricane, though he'll probably still deny that climate change is real.

BigRedEvil

Sadly climate change isn't really a vote winner against inflation and cost of living. Everything is geared towards the short term unless a cheap alternative is found and can be implemented without huge cost 

ken_shabby

As the people of Valencia found out last week, the cost can be sky high.

CafcWest

I watched an on-line presentation a short while back by a Professor at Harvard in USA.  I was sent the link by someone who knew him and he specialised in Ecology and Sustainability.  He basically said its too late.  The rate and scale of climate change would take hundreds of years to reverse.  We can all make personal changes to food consumption, use EVs, reecycle etc. and it will slow the change but not really stop it.  He also said the biggest issue was global birth rate and the ever growing population.  All those extra mouths to feed and everything that goes with it - more and more production and consumption.  He could be wrong, of course...