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The Masters 2021 Thread

With Augusta upon us, I've put together as before some early thoughts.   Not many players are playing this week at the Valero Open who would be considered favourites for next week's Masters, apart from maybe Jordan Spieth who has found a recent return to form with the driver and has been knocking on the door to win since February.

Unfortunately it looks like a rejuvenated Brooks Koepka will not play next week due to his knee injury and Tiger Woods is obviously out since crashing his car a few weeks ago.

Do remember this year in April the Masters will be firmer and running further than last year’s event when it was Autumn and soft and a different type of grass on the greens because of that.   Does this mean Bryson comes into his own or do his wayward drives now just run further into the trees.   

If you look at key stats over the years : -

Winners have all come from

 Top 70 stat - distance to Apex. (This reduces the field down to just under 80 golfers)

 Remove debutants as they never win (Jordan Spieth aside)

 This reduces the field further.

 Though again you should add Jordan Spieth (top 70 to Apex is he is out of the top 100) -  as he is hitting it way better since the Florida swing than at the start of the year.

 No over 40s

 Westwood, Poulter out.

Current golfers not in good form

McIlroy

Hovland

Matsuyama

Next to look at : - 

Going for the green - Got to be Top 25 to usually win at the Masters

 And finally - 

Par 4 Birdie or Better (a KEY stat for the winner) – must be top 15 for the season based on last 5 years’ winners

 

Since 2016

DJ 2nd last year.   Woods 14th,  Reed 7th, Willet 2nd , Garcia 7th  

In the season they won the Masters.   So looking at that, we should see how people fared last year as the season has been broken up with COVID  – and from this year’s Masters field the following players we should take a keen look at : -

 

THIS YEAR'S STAT leaders

Justin Thomas            1

Ryan Palmer               4

Joaquin Neimann          5

Patrick Reed                  6

ViktorHovland               9

Abraham Ancer             10

Scottie Scheffler            12

 

 

LAST YEAR'S STATS

Fleetwood                   9

Bryson                         8

Reed                            7

JT                                6

Hatton                         4

Scheffler                     3

DJ                                2

Webb Simpson            1

 

 

This leaves 12 golfers on a shortlist which is :-

 

Adam Scott

Brooks Koepka

DeChambeau

Dustin Johnson

Neimann

Justin Thomas

Patrick Cantlay

Rory McIlroy

Scottie Scheffler

Tommy Fleetwood

Tony Finau

Xander Schauffler

 

I think I could quickly rule out 4 or 5 of those as either injured, out of form or never won a tour event or only one minor event before despite getting into contention plenty of times.   Note that most bookies will be paying 1/5 odds top 12 so that doesn’t mean you don’t back a few of these above at 30/1+ and see some decent 6/1 returns.   Not bad money considering.

I'll add further thoughts after this week-end's tour event.

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Comments

  • Is it this weekend?
  • Is it this weekend?
    Next weekend bud.
  • I got excited when Spieth shot 61 at the Waste Management and stuck £20 on him at 28-1 so hoping he can get it done! 

    Apart from him, DJ going is to be the man to beat and his recent record there is incredible - top 10 in his last 5 Masters. However, his form seems to have slipped a little over last few weeks so will be interesting to see if he can go back to back.

    I think Jon Rahm is going to have a very good week and so aside from hoping for Spieth, I'll be backing Rahm. 

    Would obviously also be incredible to see Lee Westwood up there challenging. He seems to be playing better than he's ever done so who knows. 
  • I fancy Cantlay this year
  • Paddy Power only playing 8 places at 1/5 odds
  • No idea, but I hope it's not Bryson. Would love McIlroy to curb his demons round there, especially the back 9 where he's had lots of tree trouble as well as a few 3 putts.

    I expect the leaderboard to contain a few of those who seem to recently have found some form, so the likes of Reed, Thomas & Speith. Not sure if any Brits will be in the mix, but Westie usually does ok round there as well as Poults & Rosie. Rahm looked a bit out of sorts last week but Garcia could threaten once again. 

    Always look forward to early April & Augusta weekend.

  • I personally think dechambeau might hit the ball into too much trouble. I can't look beyond Dustin or Thomas as outright winners..as eachway bets I like scheffler ,westie and Hatton 
  • 801912601 said:
    Paddy Power only playing 8 places at 1/5 odds
    Skybet odds not as good, but paying 11
  • I've backed Sergio @ 50/1 and, as I always do, have backed Oosthuizen @ 66/1

    Main bet Thomas @ 12/1


  • Matsuyama -6 in the first round in Texas.  Good time to come back to form. 
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  • I generally try and find some each way value on Golf bets so rarely back anyone at less than 33-1. My 3 against the field are Casey, Cameron Smith & Kokrak. At the moment Paddy Power are paying 8 places, William Hill 9 & Skybet 11, although as previously mentioned their odds are not very generous.

  • edited April 6
    So this weekend saw Jordan Spieth back in the winners circle, beating Charlie Hoffman (course winner previously) into 2nd place.   This meant that Hoffman doesn't make it into the Masters and Spieth in a lot of places is as short as 9/1 now.

    Paddy Power paying top 10
    Sky Bet paying top 11, but odds are much shorter.

    Corey Connors is playing himself into some decent form and I have backed him at 66/1 with PP.
    John Rahm has the "nappy effect" with his wife giving birth last week and I am backing him also, win only at 11/1, again with PP.  

    Matt Wallace was in the final group this weekend but fell away and too often right now Englishmen aren't getting over the line.   Westwood, Fleetwood, Wallace aren't really backable as winners and they may be too short for any real value in this week's Masters (barring one - see below).   Fitzpatrick has had some solid form but still hasn't managed a win in the US.

    Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy are all very short odds and the value here could only be if you choose win only and they do win.

    I cannot believe that Augusta will allow anything than the course being firm, fast and I've seen some scary videos on line from Ian Poulter about what putting on greens that are 13 on the stimp meter look like.   I don't think we will be seeing a -20 overall winner like DJ last year.

    Going for the green, shots gained on the field, putting and scrambling stats are going to be vital.   I do believe that you can be little wayward at times at Augusta, so if the good Jordan Spieth turns up he may well stand a good chance here.   But at 9/1... I just can't back it.   His driving is too erratic and he may just not get away with it for 4 rounds at a firm and fast Augusta.

    Course form helps and we know Jordan has some great form here.   As does Sergio Garcia who is so solid from tee to green and good value this week at 45/1.

    With the greens quick and the course firm and fast I can see Poulter sneaking a place at a good price of 100/1 as he was well placed the last time the Masters was in April in 2019 when Woods won and he fell away at the par 11 12th... the same place that Francesco Molinari fell away too.   Amen Corner had its prisoners that year.

    Gary Woodland found some form at the weekend also and he's good value too at 100/1 .   Justin Rose has some glimmers of form and he's 70/1 too.   Kevin Na at 125/1 is good value too and he's won an event this year and fought hard in the recent match play event.

    Justin Thomas has improved each year at The Masters but I can't back him to win.   I think he peaked for The Players and he'll hit a bit of a flat spot and don't think he can raise him game to win but it wouldn't surprise me if he placed.

    In summation : - 

    A great 4 days golf coming up.   Expect lightning quick greens and firm course.   JT, DJ, Rahm all too good to not be there or thereabouts but as confident as I was backing DJ to win last year and he won easily, my tips are as follows :smile:

    Win Only

    John Rahm

    EW Places (top 10 PP)
    Sergio Garcia (45/1)
    Corey Connors (66/1)
    Gary Woodland (100/1)
    Matt Wallace (90/1).   3rd last week.  The stats were good.   He's at his peak form right now and let's hope he can put together a good fourth round and place.


    The one wildcard - Brooks Koepka.   Got fit earlier this year and won the Waste Management Open and his form was solid.   He then went and had another knee operation.   He's not played since but has declared himself fit for The Masters.   He would have been 10/1 (ish) probably, he's now 25/1 but will he be fit enough to win after the operation.   I don't think so.


  • edited April 6
    I always like to have a nosey at who the longest price is out of the “big five” at any major (Johnson, Thomas, DeChambeau, Rahm, McIlroy) because it often feels like there’s value to be had when one is cut adrift from the rest. 

    Recently it was DJ who won a couple of tournaments at 20/1+. Seen it happen with JT in the recent past too.

    This week, 18/1 (9 places WH, 8 places 365/Betfred) looks too big on McIlroy when 8/1-12/1 is best available on the others.

    Avoid Spieth at all costs, horrible value in those odds.

    Other names on my shortlist: Cantlay, Morikawa, Reed, Hovland, Simpson, Cam Smith, Scheffler, Wolff and Palmer. Will narrow it down in the coming days.
  • Gone Spieth and JT as my bankers.

    Abraham Ancer and Robert Macintyre as my outsiders.
  • Love a few bets on the masters to add to the enjoyment of watching. Try to find some decent odds so have gone for:-

    Victor Perez @ 80/1 (now 100/1)
    Tyrell Hatton @ 40/1 (now 45/1)
    Tommy Fleetwood @ 40/1 (now 35/1)
    Victor Hovland @ 28/1.

    i don’t like backing the septic so expect one to win!!!!



  • my list is : 
    Cantlay - First round leader
    Cantlay - Win only
    Conners, Matsuyama, Wallace, Morikawa + Champ -EW, various stakes depending on the price pays to 8
  • Desperate for Westwood to win a major.

    If he did it he would be the oldest winner at the masters.
    Current oldest is Nicklaus who incidentally had his son on his bag back then.

    Westwood has his son on his bag this weekend!

    Love @suoaclives peanutsesq betting preview but this fact is enough for me.

    Tenner on Westwood!!
  • All on Betfair:

    Patrick Reed @ 44
    Sungiae Im @ 65
    Adam Scott @ 100
    Brian Harman @ 120

  • I would love to see one of the older players win it,  I don't really mind who but I think JN is the oldest winner at 46, think Westwood is 47 so despite his tendency to miss a putt or two I hope he goes close, it would be fantastic to watch a senior player win a major so I guess Mickelson has the best chance, even if very unlikely. 
  • Can’t really see past Johnson, Thomas, Rahm, Spieth or DeChambeau.

    Hoping Rory clicks but my money is on JT.
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  • Desperate for Westwood to win a major.

    If he did it he would be the oldest winner at the masters.
    Current oldest is Nicklaus who incidentally had his son on his bag back then.

    Westwood has his son on his bag this weekend!

    Love @suoaclives peanutsesq betting preview but this fact is enough for me.

    Tenner on Westwood!!
    Christ!

    Never work with animals or your kids!!
  • Bryson's game isn't really suited to Augusta is it?
  • Mcilroys best finish in the masters is 6 shots behind the winner. 


  • Justin Rose is on fire. Superb
  • Got Rose @66/1
  • Love Justin. 
  • Amazing performance from Rose, 2 over after 7 he's 9 under for the last 10 holes.
  • Rose shooting the lights out back 9, day 1.
  • Rose completes his final 11 holes in 9 under!!!
  • edited April 9
    sam3110 said:
    Bryson's game isn't really suited to Augusta is it?
    I think last year when he said it was a par 67 course he was referring to just the front 9. 

    The guy is a jerk. Thinks it all takes to win is to hit the ball as hard as you can. He was either in the trees or over the back of the green. Glad he's miles behind Justin Rose & I hope he misses the cut. Also miffed that Speith chipped in on the 15th as that was water bound & he could have been 3 or 4 strokes worse off. 
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