There was a time, when female jockeys started to compete at the top, I would openly admit to referring to them on most occasions as a "sack of potatoes". I have no wish to be condescending but for a few years now the best lady jockeys have been right up there. But the likes of Katie Walsh, Rachael Blackmore and Bryony Frost have taken things to another level and I would defy anyone to say that any male jockey could ride or have a better understanding with a horse than Byrony does with Frodon.
The biggest compliment is that they are just jockeys now and it would be good for more of them to get more rides especially as, for every horse that needs pushing and shoving (not that Bryony isn't capable of doing that), there are the ones that just need a gentle touch to get them home.
Oh and I should have added Lizzie Kelly to that list
Lol what was that? No legislating for a 50/1 shot winning, unless you're a genius. Which I am not.
Crazy that any runner from the Mullins stable is able to go off at 50/1, especially in a mares' race that he has dominated. He also had the second at 66/1!
A nibble at 2 in the Kim Muir potentially to cause a shock (or not, if yesterday's offerings are anything to go by - caveat emptor):
Uhlan Bute 80/1
Rogue Angel 33/1
Good luck all.
I see Peanuts, I see handicap chases, I follow.
Also, I've found it very difficult to pick apart the Kim Muir (like every year), so this is welcome!
I think I should limit myself to 29f+, like Rogue Angel needs to Apologies folks.
you always gotta back Venetia's horses over the longer distance races .. Aso has won a good few quid for me, and he won a few more today .. have £1 E/W on Yala Enki in the big un tomorrow .. you never know ((:>)
Well, it’s fair to say that Day 3 didn’t go to plan. I tipped terribly by and large, resulting in 4pts loss, with a couple of places to ensure it wasn’t a total disaster. A great day for punters generally though, with a few favourites and other well-backed horses obliging.
Still, we’re in it for the long run, and there’s another day of the Festival to have a go at. Follow at your discretion. Or don’t. Let’s see what happens!
Triumph Hurdle
A big race to kick off the day, with Sir Erec a well-backed favourite. So well backed, in fact, that’s he’s currently odds on – which means I’d say he’s there for the taking, despite being the most likely winner. Our pick in doing so is the ex-French Pic D’Orhy (8/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-3), whose second in a Grade 1 represents very useful form. Paul Nicholls won the Fred Winter in 2016 with a former French recruit making his British debut, and I rather think Pic D’Orhy would be able to do similar. He was working with Ryanair winner Frodon last week, which is an added bonus.
I was going to have a chance on Hannon at a huge 40/1, but his form line through Chosen Mate has weakened after Sinoria ended up nowhere in the Mares’ Novices’ on Thursday. The others don’t make too much appeal – Tiger Tap Tap (Walsh/Mullins) has a lot to do to step up; Quel Destin will be running prominently and is therefore likely to be picked off; and Gardens of Babylon has 6L to find with Sir Erec. While Pentland Hills is unexposed and Adjali could bounce back, there are still question marks lingering over them – and the rest I’ve not mentioned – so I’ll stick with Pic.
County Hurdle
A wide open Grade 3, as it usually is. Time to refer to that handicap analysis thread on The Fat Jockey again, and we can see that Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls are the two trainers with the most consistency in this race.
Mullins saddles three, including the favourite Whiskey Sour, who is prohibitively short, but Mr Adjudicator (12/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-5) looks like a decent each-way bet with Paul Townend on board. His second on reappearance this year came behind Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen, and he was also second in the Triumph last year. This, allied with his trainer’s record in the race, is enough for me.
Nicholls saddles just the one chance in Capitaine (12/1 with Bet365 as above), and though he may be better right-handed, he won a useful Grade 2 prize at Taunton last time out. He should come on for a wind operation and have a good say.
Albert Bartlett
Again, hugely open. The current ones at single digit prices all seem attractive, but a few are a little young and inexperienced – including Allaho. I’ve heard that Ruby Walsh reckons he has a massive chance despite his age, and he’s unexposed, but I’m not going to venture against trends with him. Equally, Birchdale is inexperienced – but clearly a smart prospect for Geraghty and Henderson – and Lisnagar Oscar might find this ground unsuitable. Both Commander of Fleet and Dickie Diver have a lot to like about them, but at a slightly bigger price I like Derrinross (12/1 each way with Coral, 1/5 1-5!), who would be much less under the radar if a Mullins/Elliott runner, but as he’s trained by Philip Dempsey, the odds still look good.
I want value further down, especially with Coral’s five places, and the Hutchinson/King combo of Alsa Mix (33/1 each way with Coral as above) could provide some. Despite a fading 6th in the Challow last time out, her Grade 2 win at Sandown on heavy looked like a true staying performance, and I fancy a revival.
Gold Cup
The big one. Nearly every bookmaker is paying 4 places at 1/5 odds and there’s so much that’s been said about this race already that I don’t feel the need to add more here. We have some good quality in this race, and the market knows this accordingly, so value will be quite difficult to find. Bellshill would have been about 16s or 20s if he hadn’t won the Irish Gold Cup, and without Ruby on board, for a trainer desperately seeking to win the showpiece for the first time.
However, I’m backing him to do so via Kemboy (11/1 each way Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 1/5 1-4), who ran very well on merit at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s not exposed over 3 miles, and likely to appreciate an extra couple of furlongs. Of course, Presenting Percy has always had this as the aim; Native River is the defending champion; and Clan Des Obeaux has won well this year but stamina is a question.
At bigger prices, not much stands out – maybe Invitation Only at 33s if he can sort out his jumping, but I’m going to stick with just the one in this race and enjoy what should be an absolute cracker.
Foxhunter Challenge Cup
Oh, I’d love to see a Pacha Du Polder hat trick in this race, but after a 55L defeat in his reappearance run, I can’t have much faith even at 20/1. The victor that day, Road to Rome (8/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and others), is under a fantastic run and has the estimable Sam Waley-Cohen on board. We’ll take a chance on the ground and he’s a leading contender.
At a huge price I fancy last year’s dead heater for third, Cousin Pete (40/1 each way with above bookies, 1/5 1-4), who looked back on song at Garthorpe in his most recent outing. He likes Cheltenham and I think he’s way overpriced at the moment.
There are too many horses to talk about in this race and I think there’s loads of value away from the top six (all single figures), who have rather shown enough of themselves in the betting for the bookies to act accordingly.
Grand Annual
I must confess, I’ve not studied this one. However, with William Hill offering five places (1/5 odds), it would be rude not to avail oneself of their best odds on Gino Trail (20/1 each way, terms above), who rarely finishes out of the frame and is capable of a huge run. Second to Le Prezien in this last year, and a good win making all over C&D in December 2017, I think he’s a good value play for a place.
Martin Pipe
Yet again it’s time to consult the handicap guide from Fat Jockey, and the conclusions for this race are obvious: Gigginstown do well; Davy Russell has an excellent handicap record; Mullins and Nicholls are alright; and David Pipe (who of course wants a win) is good each-way. With multiple places offered by most bookies, it seems prudent to take Defi Bleu (14/1 each way with William Hill, 1/5 1-5) at the prices. He stays well, and if he can be a bit more fluent over the hurdles, he can definitely be in the mix.
I’ve already highlighted ten runners, and the Martin Pipe isn’t a race I’m too hot on, so I’ll leave my Cheltenham there. A quick roundup – Dallas Des Pictons is a worthy Gigginstown favourite, if short; Early Doors was good in this last year; Discordantly could go well at a price… And there are too many more to mention.
Toughest day of the festival in my opinion, so I've tried to pick out some EW value
1.30- Authorizo EW 2.10- Mr Adjudicator EW & Leoncavallo EW 2.50- Commander of Fleet EW 3.30- Al Boum Photo EW. 4.10- Shantou flyer EW 4.50- Not Another Muddle EW 5.30- Defi Bleu EW
EW Yankee
Not Another Muddle Commander of Fleet Leoncavallo Defi Bleu
Sky have reduced there odds on the 1.30 dramatically for tomorrow and are not offering best odds guaranteed. I think they got stung today.
Their current book is 140% but, as it is a free bet, there is still a lot more value than guaranteed odds for a loser which, of course, 13 of the 14 runners will be!
We're on our way on our way To the festival we're on our way
Enjoy mate. So snowed with work I’ve not managed to look at the runners for a single race this week, let alone watch one. Peed off
Darren's driving as we're staying overnight & onto Rovers tomorrow. Delayed start as had to go back home as forgot his coat. Can't get the staff these days. 🔙
We're on our way on our way To the festival we're on our way
Enjoy mate. So snowed with work I’ve not managed to look at the runners for a single race this week, let alone watch one. Peed off
Darren's driving as we're staying overnight & onto Rovers tomorrow. Delayed start as had to go back home as forgot his coat. Can't get the staff these days. 🔙
Toughest day of the festival in my opinion, so I've tried to pick out some EW value
1.30- Authorizo EW 2.10- Mr Adjudicator EW & Leoncavallo EW 2.50- Commander of Fleet EW 3.30- Al Boum Photo EW. 4.10- Shantou flyer EW 4.50- Not Another Muddle EW 5.30- Defi Bleu EW
EW Yankee
Not Another Muddle Commander of Fleet Leoncavallo Defi Bleu
Picked up on some of yours, @Gravesend_Addick, your choices have served me well so far. Good luck to both of us.
Comments
So I'm happy to collect lol
another 250k up for grabs tomorrow
Apologies folks.
Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 4 Tips
Well, it’s fair to say that Day 3 didn’t go to plan. I tipped terribly by and large, resulting in 4pts loss, with a couple of places to ensure it wasn’t a total disaster. A great day for punters generally though, with a few favourites and other well-backed horses obliging.
Still, we’re in it for the long run, and there’s another day of the Festival to have a go at. Follow at your discretion. Or don’t. Let’s see what happens!
Triumph Hurdle
A big race to kick off the day, with Sir Erec a well-backed favourite. So well backed, in fact, that’s he’s currently odds on – which means I’d say he’s there for the taking, despite being the most likely winner. Our pick in doing so is the ex-French Pic D’Orhy (8/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-3), whose second in a Grade 1 represents very useful form. Paul Nicholls won the Fred Winter in 2016 with a former French recruit making his British debut, and I rather think Pic D’Orhy would be able to do similar. He was working with Ryanair winner Frodon last week, which is an added bonus.
I was going to have a chance on Hannon at a huge 40/1, but his form line through Chosen Mate has weakened after Sinoria ended up nowhere in the Mares’ Novices’ on Thursday. The others don’t make too much appeal – Tiger Tap Tap (Walsh/Mullins) has a lot to do to step up; Quel Destin will be running prominently and is therefore likely to be picked off; and Gardens of Babylon has 6L to find with Sir Erec. While Pentland Hills is unexposed and Adjali could bounce back, there are still question marks lingering over them – and the rest I’ve not mentioned – so I’ll stick with Pic.
County Hurdle
A wide open Grade 3, as it usually is. Time to refer to that handicap analysis thread on The Fat Jockey again, and we can see that Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls are the two trainers with the most consistency in this race.
Mullins saddles three, including the favourite Whiskey Sour, who is prohibitively short, but Mr Adjudicator (12/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-5) looks like a decent each-way bet with Paul Townend on board. His second on reappearance this year came behind Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen, and he was also second in the Triumph last year. This, allied with his trainer’s record in the race, is enough for me.
Nicholls saddles just the one chance in Capitaine (12/1 with Bet365 as above), and though he may be better right-handed, he won a useful Grade 2 prize at Taunton last time out. He should come on for a wind operation and have a good say.
Albert Bartlett
Again, hugely open. The current ones at single digit prices all seem attractive, but a few are a little young and inexperienced – including Allaho. I’ve heard that Ruby Walsh reckons he has a massive chance despite his age, and he’s unexposed, but I’m not going to venture against trends with him. Equally, Birchdale is inexperienced – but clearly a smart prospect for Geraghty and Henderson – and Lisnagar Oscar might find this ground unsuitable. Both Commander of Fleet and Dickie Diver have a lot to like about them, but at a slightly bigger price I like Derrinross (12/1 each way with Coral, 1/5 1-5!), who would be much less under the radar if a Mullins/Elliott runner, but as he’s trained by Philip Dempsey, the odds still look good.
I want value further down, especially with Coral’s five places, and the Hutchinson/King combo of Alsa Mix (33/1 each way with Coral as above) could provide some. Despite a fading 6th in the Challow last time out, her Grade 2 win at Sandown on heavy looked like a true staying performance, and I fancy a revival.
Gold Cup
The big one. Nearly every bookmaker is paying 4 places at 1/5 odds and there’s so much that’s been said about this race already that I don’t feel the need to add more here. We have some good quality in this race, and the market knows this accordingly, so value will be quite difficult to find. Bellshill would have been about 16s or 20s if he hadn’t won the Irish Gold Cup, and without Ruby on board, for a trainer desperately seeking to win the showpiece for the first time.
However, I’m backing him to do so via Kemboy (11/1 each way Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 1/5 1-4), who ran very well on merit at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s not exposed over 3 miles, and likely to appreciate an extra couple of furlongs. Of course, Presenting Percy has always had this as the aim; Native River is the defending champion; and Clan Des Obeaux has won well this year but stamina is a question.
At bigger prices, not much stands out – maybe Invitation Only at 33s if he can sort out his jumping, but I’m going to stick with just the one in this race and enjoy what should be an absolute cracker.
Foxhunter Challenge Cup
Oh, I’d love to see a Pacha Du Polder hat trick in this race, but after a 55L defeat in his reappearance run, I can’t have much faith even at 20/1. The victor that day, Road to Rome (8/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and others), is under a fantastic run and has the estimable Sam Waley-Cohen on board. We’ll take a chance on the ground and he’s a leading contender.
At a huge price I fancy last year’s dead heater for third, Cousin Pete (40/1 each way with above bookies, 1/5 1-4), who looked back on song at Garthorpe in his most recent outing. He likes Cheltenham and I think he’s way overpriced at the moment.
There are too many horses to talk about in this race and I think there’s loads of value away from the top six (all single figures), who have rather shown enough of themselves in the betting for the bookies to act accordingly.
Grand Annual
I must confess, I’ve not studied this one. However, with William Hill offering five places (1/5 odds), it would be rude not to avail oneself of their best odds on Gino Trail (20/1 each way, terms above), who rarely finishes out of the frame and is capable of a huge run. Second to Le Prezien in this last year, and a good win making all over C&D in December 2017, I think he’s a good value play for a place.
Martin Pipe
Yet again it’s time to consult the handicap guide from Fat Jockey, and the conclusions for this race are obvious: Gigginstown do well; Davy Russell has an excellent handicap record; Mullins and Nicholls are alright; and David Pipe (who of course wants a win) is good each-way. With multiple places offered by most bookies, it seems prudent to take Defi Bleu (14/1 each way with William Hill, 1/5 1-5) at the prices. He stays well, and if he can be a bit more fluent over the hurdles, he can definitely be in the mix.
I’ve already highlighted ten runners, and the Martin Pipe isn’t a race I’m too hot on, so I’ll leave my Cheltenham there. A quick roundup – Dallas Des Pictons is a worthy Gigginstown favourite, if short; Early Doors was good in this last year; Discordantly could go well at a price… And there are too many more to mention.
Tips Summary
1.30 – Pic D’Orhy @ 8/1 – 0.75pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-3)
2.10 – Mr Adjudicator @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5)
2.10 – Capitaine @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365)
2.50 – Derrinross @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral, 1/5 1-5)
2.50 – Alsa Mix @ 33/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral)
3.30 – Kemboy @ 11/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 1/5 1-4)
4.10 – Road To Rome @ 8/1 – 1pt win (Betfair, Paddy Power and others)
4.10 – Cousin Pete @ 40/1 – 0.25pts e/w (above bookies, 1/5 1-4)
4.50 – Gino Trail @ 20/1 – 0.5pts e/w (William Hill, 1/5 1-5)
5.30 – Defi Bleu @ 14/1 – 0.5pts e/w (William Hill, 1/5 1-5)
Quel Destin is 9s and 10s across the board.....9/2 with SkyBet
1.30- Authorizo EW
2.10- Mr Adjudicator EW & Leoncavallo EW
2.50- Commander of Fleet EW
3.30- Al Boum Photo EW.
4.10- Shantou flyer EW
4.50- Not Another Muddle EW
5.30- Defi Bleu EW
EW Yankee
Not Another Muddle
Commander of Fleet
Leoncavallo
Defi Bleu
To the festival we're on our way
Delayed start as had to go back home as forgot his coat.
Can't get the staff these days.
🔙
It's shorts ant t shirt weather
Just for the name
Good luck all today, getting involved first race £20 on Sir Erec , £10 on Paddy's tip Pic D'Orhy @ 9/1
Regardless betting tokens for other races when its loses cashback off.
On that basis please avoid like the plague:
1:30 Adjali 8-1 (7 places)
2:10 Mr Adjudicator 6-1 (10 places)
2:50 Stoney Mountain 11-1 (10 places)
3:30 Elegant Escape 8-1 (8 places)
4:10 Road To Rome 5-1 (6 places)
4:50 Gino Trail 8-1 (10 places)
5:30 Doctor Dex 16-1 (10 places)
1.30 Quel Destin, 2.50 Dinons, 3.30 Al Boum Photo