Russia’s actions condemned by Poland and Estonia while Ukraine have called it an act of war, the EU are urging restraint...
This could be bad.
Russia will deny responsibility and the world will wring its hands. Push, push, push is Putins game. See where the cracks are. Can’t see any significant response other than more sanctions. Like Putin cares. The harder it gets for the Russian people the more they support him.
his popularity is (comparitively) very low at the moment, his approvals have always gone up after Georgia, Crimea and the initial Ukraine civil war. This is him trying to buy more approval.
How much do we think his approval rating means? I remember it dipping pretty seriously when their economy was really struggling a few years ago, but he's obviously won re-election since then. I cannot imagine him losing an election (just because there are ways to make sure that doesn't happen). I struggle to see some sort of mass protests because again, there are ways of making sure those things don't happen.
My best guess is that he's driven by these things from an ego, sphere of influence, and a sort of Russian Empire mindset. This Julia Ioffe piece from a few months ago is really good, and she, along with a lot of other good writers on Russia, talk about the fact that Putin doesn't really have long term goals beyond maintaining power. Couple that with a distaste for the US and NATO that goes back to the fall of the Soviet Union and those two things seem to be his major driving forces.
I feel like sometimes Putin is viewed as this master chess player, this brilliant strategist. And when it comes to meddling and tinkering and exploiting the weaknesses of other countries (former KGB), he's very good. And those things are meat and drink to his base, it seems. But it's a lot easier to meddle with other countries than it is to have some sort of grand master plan that you're building toward.
I think there is a “master plan” albeit loose and open ended. I think Putin wants to see a reclamation of at least some of the countries or parts it lost with the fall of communism. It’s been nibbling away at the closest and easiest bits for years now. He has amassed large forces “on exercise “ near the borders of the Baltic States as a provocative act and to test opinion and response from the West and Nato. He gets away Scott free on every occasion. He probes this countries airspace on a weekly basis and puts his submarines into Swedish waters several times a year. Both the RAF and Swedish navy see them off but it’s provocative and done for a purpose. He has no concerns about murdering people using banned chemical weapons on overseas soil. Again it’s provoking and he knows that nothing much will happen.
I’m not saying that he’s going to invade Lithuania or Estonia any time soon but he would if he though he could get away with it. There are a lot of ethnic Russians in the Baltic’s and that’s possibly going to be his excuse. He’s already weakened the European Union by meddling in the referendum to get us out. He’s meddled in the US election where he has an “ally” in Trump. NATO has been weakened by Trumps election.
Don’t be fooled into thinking all of these things happen by chance. He has a plan and the only way the west can check him is by responding strongly. He’s a bully and bully’s only know one thing. They don’t like people standing up to them.
Putin is the biggest single threat to world safety there is.
I completely agree with all of this (apart from biggest threat to the world, I'd probably put global warming ahead of him), and I don't think any of what he does is by chance. And I think that notion of a Russian/Slavic Soviet-style "bloc" is pretty spot on. I just don't think that he's lined up all these dominos and is now just going to watch them fall into place. I think it's far more short-termist than that, and I think the sum total of that is staying in power (which, as alluded to above, might also be synonymous with staying alive).
And again, as you say, he has done an excellent job at exploiting the weaknesses of "western democracies." We should add Ukraine to that list. Italy and Germany too. They hacked information about the French Presidential election. I just find that to be a different set of skills and practices to building a new Soviet bloc, where his efforts have been pretty ham fisted, if that makes any sense.
Not sure how but I think Mr. Putin needs to be fronted.
Ah, just let Trump press the Nuke button , and have it done with. We all know he's itching to do it.
You don't nuke your mate who fixes you up with tarts who provide golden showers.
Unless, I suppose, you thought your mate is about to release the tapes of it all...
I honestly don't think the golden showers thing is real. I'm 99.9% sure that Putin has something on Trump but my money would be on criminal activities of a financial nature rather than something sexual. Trump has pretty much admitted to extra-marital sex with porn stars and models and has demonstrated no shame or guilt whatsoever so I'm really not sure he'd be that bothered by pee tapes.
Not sure how but I think Mr. Putin needs to be fronted.
Ah, just let Trump press the Nuke button , and have it done with. We all know he's itching to do it.
You don't nuke your mate who fixes you up with tarts who provide golden showers.
Unless, I suppose, you thought your mate is about to release the tapes of it all...
I honestly don't think the golden showers thing is real. I'm 99.9% sure that Putin has something on Trump but my money would be on criminal activities of a financial nature rather than something sexual. Trump has pretty much admitted to extra-marital sex with porn stars and models and has demonstrated no shame or guilt whatsoever so I'm really not sure he'd be that bothered by pee tapes.
The conspiracy nut louise mensch believes it to be paedophilic in nature the evidence they have on him. It would certainly have to be catastrophic considering he don't care people know he pays for sex whilst his wife is pregnant with their child.
Let’s hope so PA. If he’s just a money grabbing crook which of course we know he is and there’s nothing much more about him then eventually he’ll get bumped off by someone wanting some of it too.
Personally I think it’s nieve to underestimate Putin and all his motives. Ask the Ukrainians what they think.
He’s certainly money grabbing .. some believe he is the richest person in the world, worth about two hundred billion dollars, more than Bezos and Gates combined.
Let’s hope so PA. If he’s just a money grabbing crook which of course we know he is and there’s nothing much more about him then eventually he’ll get bumped off by someone wanting some of it too.
Personally I think it’s nieve to underestimate Putin and all his motives. Ask the Ukrainians what they think.
He’s certainly money grabbing .. some believe he is the richest person in the world, worth about two hundred billion dollars, more than Bezos and Gates combined.
Pity he's not into football!
Gotta be more of a Rugby man with that name surely?
Not sure how but I think Mr. Putin needs to be fronted.
Ah, just let Trump press the Nuke button , and have it done with. We all know he's itching to do it.
You don't nuke your mate who fixes you up with tarts who provide golden showers.
Unless, I suppose, you thought your mate is about to release the tapes of it all...
I honestly don't think the golden showers thing is real. I'm 99.9% sure that Putin has something on Trump but my money would be on criminal activities of a financial nature rather than something sexual. Trump has pretty much admitted to extra-marital sex with porn stars and models and has demonstrated no shame or guilt whatsoever so I'm really not sure he'd be that bothered by pee tapes.
I'm with you I don't think it's real. I think the kompromat Putin has on Trump is that Putin helped influence the election for and with Trump. Also probably a litany of money laundering and fraud and tax evasion stuff potentially going back 30+ years.
If money was his only motivation he would retire into obscurity now. He already has more money than he could ever spend if he lived to be a thousand years old.
Putin and Trump are good buddies. The last time they met you see Putin giving Trump a thumbs up gesture when Trump was trying to look hard. What we see and hear is only a facade to fool the populace. Behind the scenes they are coniviving bastards. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.
Putin and Trump are good buddies. The last time they met you see Putin giving Trump a thumbs up gesture when Trump was trying to look hard. What we see and hear is only a facade to fool the populace. Behind the scenes they are coniviving bastards. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.
I'm not sure it's buddies as much as servant and master.
Putin and Trump are good buddies. The last time they met you see Putin giving Trump a thumbs up gesture when Trump was trying to look hard. What we see and hear is only a facade to fool the populace. Behind the scenes they are coniviving bastards. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.
I'm not sure it's buddies as much as servant and master.
Only options open is for uK, the rest of Europe plus our best buddies across the pond to up the sanctions. And then scrutinise the bibs and bobs of every Russian staying in the U.K nick all their money (watches and porn) then stick two fingers up at Putin. That will learn them eh!
The US have already imposed more sanctions over Novichok than the UK has. Probably time for the UK government to step up to the plate now, better late than never.
Still waiting ... UK have done nothing (aside from diplomatic expulsions) despite a weapons grade nerve agent being exposed to our citizens. The much heralded Magnitsky act has come into being in the USA, Canada and the UK amongst others. In the USA 150 Russians have been sanctioned, 70 in Canada and 0 here that's zero ... none!
Makes you wonder if the powers that be are cashing in on our rich Russian guests as they walk the streets of London with impunity.
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And again, as you say, he has done an excellent job at exploiting the weaknesses of "western democracies." We should add Ukraine to that list. Italy and Germany too. They hacked information about the French Presidential election. I just find that to be a different set of skills and practices to building a new Soviet bloc, where his efforts have been pretty ham fisted, if that makes any sense.
Unless, I suppose, you thought your mate is about to release the tapes of it all...
Makes you wonder if the powers that be are cashing in on our rich Russian guests as they walk the streets of London with impunity.
(As reminded by Bill Browder on today's James O'Brien show).
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/uk-political-process-is-polluted-by-dirty-russian/
Not sure how they can deny this one as it's happened to a Russian politician in Russia?