Talking of passports, do you remember the outrage because the EU had imposed the smaller burgundy passport on us - then the truth came out that our government could have gone with symbolic blue ones but had very sensibly decided to save money by using the free EU template.
And not just any government but one led by Mrs T 😉
Will of the people? My arse! 54% Remain 46% Leave. Poll of 20,000 people.
Yes I saw that Channel 4 programme.
The problem with it's poll that no one mentioned is that virtually all the polls and most of the 'pundits' also predicted a 'Remain' win in the run up to the original June 23rd 2016 vote - and look what happened.
The screenshot below shows the polls in the week leading up to June 23rd:
If you remember rightly, the polls shows the Remain win right before the vote count started.
hi @DiscoCAFC I commented in detail on poll accuracy yesterday, based on what I have learnt from my wife who is a market research specialist. The pollsters believe they have learnt lessons both here and in the USA. I wrote that a big test of those learnings now would be how accurate they are for the mid- terms USA. Turns out that they were very accurate.
Will of the people? My arse! 54% Remain 46% Leave. Poll of 20,000 people.
Yes I saw that Channel 4 programme.
The problem with it's poll that no one mentioned is that virtually all the polls and most of the 'pundits' also predicted a 'Remain' win in the run up to the original June 23rd 2016 vote - and look what happened.
The screenshot below shows the polls in the week leading up to June 23rd:
If you remember rightly, the polls shows the Remain win right before the vote count started.
hi @DiscoCAFC I commented in detail on poll accuracy yesterday, based on what I have learnt from my wife who is a market research specialist. The pollsters believe they have learnt lessons both here and in the USA. I wrote that a big test of those learnings now would be how accurate they are for the mid- terms USA. Turns out that they were very accurate.
Will of the people? My arse! 54% Remain 46% Leave. Poll of 20,000 people.
Yes I saw that Channel 4 programme.
The problem with it's poll that no one mentioned is that virtually all the polls and most of the 'pundits' also predicted a 'Remain' win in the run up to the original June 23rd 2016 vote - and look what happened.
The screenshot below shows the polls in the week leading up to June 23rd:
If you remember rightly, the polls shows the Remain win right before the vote count started.
hi @DiscoCAFC I commented in detail on poll accuracy yesterday, based on what I have learnt from my wife who is a market research specialist. The pollsters believe they have learnt lessons both here and in the USA. I wrote that a big test of those learnings now would be how accurate they are for the mid- terms USA. Turns out that they were very accurate.
They still called several states wrong, as highlighted by our resident economist on the Trump thread. They did better, 'very accurate' is a tad OTT, imo.
Rabb might have thought all the international trade came in through Deptford Creek, most to be unloaded down the Ravensbourne at Catford, whilst smaller goods were diverted down the Quaggy to Lee.
I am fascinated by maps of all kinds, I've looked at loads, learned much of my early UK Geography by the location of football clubs, worked out from the Battle of Hastings and other events where France is located. I also know that goods don't arrive via a kind of complicated tube system employed in classic department stores, or we get everything from Amazon, or that imports enter the UK via Rye, Portree or Solva, nor are they parachuted in by the Dharma initiative. Dominic, France has been there, in that position, for a minimum of one hundred years. Your posh boy Dom Perignon isn't routed in via Brisbane, but from over there in France. For goodness sake you could swim there in about 20 hours, you being a dan in karate or whatever you've got.
We might scoff at this revelation but the fact is that only those who give the matter serious consideration begin to realise that we either maintain frictionless trade with a deal (or series of arrangements) or that we have friction and no deal. It appears obvious when stated like that but much of the 2016 leave campaign as well as their leadership's subsequent comments pointed to maintaining "something" as good as the status quo but leaving everything.
So we have at last arrived at the point where we are seeing a suggestion of an all UK customs union with the EU as well as maintaining regulatory alignment and this quite possibly equates to a backdoor version of staying in the Single Market. This to be from the transition period end until such time as there is an agreed FTA.
Experts might suggest otherwise should this proposal land but it looks like we are staring at a two to three year BINO transition followed by a BINO freeze period and ending with a variation on BINO once we and the EU can agree all of the small print. At this point we might ask why bother leaving?! Or should there be another vote?
And we might also breathe a collective sigh of relief since this mitigates all risk and only the ERG will have a problem with this approach. Some can moan that this isn't Brexit and they are free to stand in the democratic process at some point in the future. They are also free to remain in the Tory party and have a pop at their leadership.
It is not the view of all, but some of us have maintained that an agreed Brexit acknowledges the referendum and will cause minimum damage if we go along BINO lines. We might then put this sorry episode behind us and concentrate on the plethora of important topics such as health, housing, education, innovation and productivity. None of these were held back by membership of the EU nor will they be solved overnight by leaving. Contrary to the Leave propaganda they can all be solved by Whitehall and HMG.
Funny how May and Hammond with one eye on the next election, snaffled a few policies from the 2017 Labour manifesto and implemented them in the budget. Ending PFI, boosting NHS money by 3.5% and allowing councils to borrow more for housing were all in the McDonnell led manifesto - they all have nothing to do with the EU and were all in the budget. We may well be in a position in April to count our blessings and celebrate some authentic democratic debate. Given where Italy is going right now with populist anti-establishment leadership, that's not a bad place to be.
Just stay as we are & tell the EU we ain't paying them another penny after March 2019. Let them kick us out if they dont like it.
March 2019 does not mark the end of the current funding round, I believe it's due to be 2020 - hence the agreement to pay a settlement on leaving (entirely separate, other than in terms of goodwill, from the future relationship).
And, they would kick the UK out. Unceremoniously, and with great acrimony. I wouldn't fancy the outcomes of that, it'd be like a no deal Brexit (which could happen without any particular malice between the parties) on speed.
Whatever your views on the EU27 and their approach to Brexit, don't expect a more favourable outcome if the UK were seen to be just dicking around for the sake of it, as opposed to the example provided of utterly misunderstanding both the interests of the EU and the process of negotiation by incompetently seeking to undermine EU27 solidarity. HMG has tried cavalier bravado already, it's not been a massive success.
Whether the UK could just reverse Article 50 unilaterally is due to be tested in the ECJ/CJEU, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the judgement will be that reversal of Article 50 could only happen on the same type of terms of unanimity as an extension of the process.
Just stay as we are & tell the EU we ain't paying them another penny after March 2019. Let them kick us out if they dont like it.
If we did that we would be outcasts everywhere. Who would want to do any deals with us from anywhere? I do honestly find it hard to imagine where statements like that can come from!
Just stay as we are & tell the EU we ain't paying them another penny after March 2019. Let them kick us out if they dont like it.
If we did that we would be outcasts everywhere. Who would want to do any deals with us from anywhere? I do honestly find it hard to imagine where statements like that can come from!
Just stay as we are & tell the EU we ain't paying them another penny after March 2019. Let them kick us out if they dont like it.
Quality use of the word 'just' here. Good brexiter word. 'Scuse me while I 'just' get signed by Charlton and score 50 goals a season as I lead us to the Premier League.
Just stay as we are & tell the EU we ain't paying them another penny after March 2019. Let them kick us out if they dont like it.
Comments and support of comments like this actually do the genuine leave argument real harm.
It’s shows a complete lack of understanding of the issues surrounding Brexit and a complete lack of understanding of the larger issues of such a course of action.
Many remainers are (perhaps) quite rightly criticised for suggesting that large parts of the leave vote were moronic.
Sorry golfie but with comments like this you make that accusation far easier to make.
Just stay as we are & tell the EU we ain't paying them another penny after March 2019. Let them kick us out if they dont like it.
"Getting a deal is a bit difficult, so we won't bother".
That's the spirit! How else were we able to drag the world into the industrial age, conquer a third of the world and bosh the Hun twice, than by drawing on this limitless well of strength of will and character?
So trying to piece together some of the stories emerging today it seems like May is preparing to accept a compromise which would see Northern Ireland remain in alignment with the single market in some circumstances whilst the rest of the U.K. had some other deal (or no deal at all) meaning there would need to be some sort of customs checks for goods travelling between NI and GB.
The DUP obviously won’t agree to that, neither will plenty of Tory Brexiteers you would imagine, plus I’m pretty doubtful that Labour would feel that anything May brings back will meet their tests. Are we looking at May’s deal, if it ever materialises, getting voted down in Parliament? What happens then? Surely she would have to resign, someone else becomes PM and we probably leave without a deal?
Comments
I also know that goods don't arrive via a kind of complicated tube system employed in classic department stores, or we get everything from Amazon, or that imports enter the UK via Rye, Portree or Solva, nor are they parachuted in by the Dharma initiative.
Dominic, France has been there, in that position, for a minimum of one hundred years. Your posh boy Dom Perignon isn't routed in via Brisbane, but from over there in France.
For goodness sake you could swim there in about 20 hours, you being a dan in karate or whatever you've got.
So we have at last arrived at the point where we are seeing a suggestion of an all UK customs union with the EU as well as maintaining regulatory alignment and this quite possibly equates to a backdoor version of staying in the Single Market. This to be from the transition period end until such time as there is an agreed FTA.
Experts might suggest otherwise should this proposal land but it looks like we are staring at a two to three year BINO transition followed by a BINO freeze period and ending with a variation on BINO once we and the EU can agree all of the small print. At this point we might ask why bother leaving?! Or should there be another vote?
And we might also breathe a collective sigh of relief since this mitigates all risk and only the ERG will have a problem with this approach. Some can moan that this isn't Brexit and they are free to stand in the democratic process at some point in the future. They are also free to remain in the Tory party and have a pop at their leadership.
It is not the view of all, but some of us have maintained that an agreed Brexit acknowledges the referendum and will cause minimum damage if we go along BINO lines. We might then put this sorry episode behind us and concentrate on the plethora of important topics such as health, housing, education, innovation and productivity. None of these were held back by membership of the EU nor will they be solved overnight by leaving. Contrary to the Leave propaganda they can all be solved by Whitehall and HMG.
Funny how May and Hammond with one eye on the next election, snaffled a few policies from the 2017 Labour manifesto and implemented them in the budget. Ending PFI, boosting NHS money by 3.5% and allowing councils to borrow more for housing were all in the McDonnell led manifesto - they all have nothing to do with the EU and were all in the budget. We may well be in a position in April to count our blessings and celebrate some authentic democratic debate. Given where Italy is going right now with populist anti-establishment leadership, that's not a bad place to be.
And, they would kick the UK out. Unceremoniously, and with great acrimony. I wouldn't fancy the outcomes of that, it'd be like a no deal Brexit (which could happen without any particular malice between the parties) on speed.
Whatever your views on the EU27 and their approach to Brexit, don't expect a more favourable outcome if the UK were seen to be just dicking around for the sake of it, as opposed to the example provided of utterly misunderstanding both the interests of the EU and the process of negotiation by incompetently seeking to undermine EU27 solidarity. HMG has tried cavalier bravado already, it's not been a massive success.
Whether the UK could just reverse Article 50 unilaterally is due to be tested in the ECJ/CJEU, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the judgement will be that reversal of Article 50 could only happen on the same type of terms of unanimity as an extension of the process.
They don't have to "kick us out", we've already handed in our notice.
Good brexiter word.
'Scuse me while I 'just' get signed by Charlton and score 50 goals a season as I lead us to the Premier League.
It’s shows a complete lack of understanding of the issues surrounding Brexit and a complete lack of understanding of the larger issues of such a course of action.
Many remainers are (perhaps) quite rightly criticised for suggesting that large parts of the leave vote were moronic.
Sorry golfie but with comments like this you make that accusation far easier to make.
That's the spirit! How else were we able to drag the world into the industrial age, conquer a third of the world and bosh the Hun twice, than by drawing on this limitless well of strength of will and character?
The DUP obviously won’t agree to that, neither will plenty of Tory Brexiteers you would imagine, plus I’m pretty doubtful that Labour would feel that anything May brings back will meet their tests. Are we looking at May’s deal, if it ever materialises, getting voted down in Parliament? What happens then? Surely she would have to resign, someone else becomes PM and we probably leave without a deal?