The more I listen to politicians of all persuasions the more I'm convinced TM's white paper is a crock of shit.
Everyone knows that if you are going into a room to bargain for something you go in with your best bid & expect to have to climb down a bit......and then some.
Does anyone really think that whatever is in the White Paper on thursday is still going to be there come October when the other EU countries finally vote on it. One of the EU negotiators said as much on Newsnight tonight. He said it was a starting point and no more.
It is only going to get worse.
PS.
love the way that the UK is 1 of only 6 NATO countries that is putting in the required 2% of GDP (US contributes 3.4%). The top 3 largest European economies put in a lot less.
Fair playing field.....fuck no. I'd be withholding the £37bn "divorce bill" until the rest pay what they are contracted to do.
The more I listen to politicians of all persuasions the more I'm convinced TM's white paper is a crock of shit.
Everyone knows that if you are going into a room to bargain for something you go in with your best bid & expect to have to climb down a bit......and then some.
Does anyone really think that whatever is in the White Paper on thursday is still going to be there come October when the other EU countries finally vote on it. One of the EU negotiators said as much on Newsnight tonight. He said it was a starting point and no more.
It is only going to get worse.
PS.
love the way that the UK is 1 of only 6 NATO countries that is putting in the required 2% of GDP (US contributes 3.4%). The top 3 largest European economies put in a lot less.
Fair playing field.....fuck no. I'd be withholding the £37bn "divorce bill" until the rest pay what they are contracted to do.
The last time I checked, the EU and NATO were separate organisations, with both containing member states that do not belong to the other.
So, good luck with the idea of you withholding an agreed payment to one because of a dispute within the other. It's a sure fire way of achieving a disorderly Brexit without any form of agreement, with every aspect of international cooperation between the UK and EU27 open to disruption and delay.
In any event, I understand that the 2% is an aspirational commitment, and countries are committed to meeting it by 2024.
If the type of Brexit we were voting for in the referendum was so clear how come even the most ardent Brexiteers seem unclear what it is and don't have a coherent plan? I keep being told that people knew what they were voting for but it's plainly obvious most of the electorate didn't fully understand the implications.
For the referendum to be meaningful there needed to be more planning and a clearly articulated Brexit strategy. Everything was simply too vague hence the mess we are in now.
The blame lies with Cameron who has created one unholy mess and further divisions within the country.
Agree that it has unnecessarily divided the country when we should all be working together. There is enough division and turbulence in the world already without pointlessly causing our own.
I am visiting England at the moment and having a brilliant time but I am struck by how often I am hearing that it is so good how the England team is doing, especially as it is causing a divided country to come together. Delighted the team are doing well but sad that we see ourselves as being so divided. It is how the UK is seen from abroad unfortunately as well - when even Donald Trump describes the country as being 'in turmoil' you know we have got ourselves in a needless mess.
If the type of Brexit we were voting for in the referendum was so clear how come even the most ardent Brexiteers seem unclear what it is and don't have a coherent plan? I keep being told that people knew what they were voting for but it's plainly obvious most of the electorate didn't fully understand the implications.
For the referendum to be meaningful there needed to be more planning and a clearly articulated Brexit strategy. Everything was simply too vague hence the mess we are in now.
The blame lies with Cameron who has created one unholy mess and further divisions within the country.
Yes, I blame him but I also blame much of the press who waged a relentless campaign of lies and misrepresentation of the EEC/EU for 40 years. The sheer volume of it is extraordinary from straight bananas, to barmaids cleavage. It allowed those running the various leave campaigns to peddle even more brazen untruths which were swallowed by those looking to back fill with "facts", their emotional detachment from the EU.
If the type of Brexit we were voting for in the referendum was so clear how come even the most ardent Brexiteers seem unclear what it is and don't have a coherent plan? I keep being told that people knew what they were voting for but it's plainly obvious most of the electorate didn't fully understand the implications.
For the referendum to be meaningful there needed to be more planning and a clearly articulated Brexit strategy. Everything was simply too vague hence the mess we are in now.
The blame lies with Cameron who has created one unholy mess and further divisions within the country.
Yes, I blame him but I also blame much of the press who waged a relentless campaign of lies and misrepresentation of the EEC/EU for 40 years. The sheer volume of it is extraordinary from straight bananas, to barmaids cleavage. It allowed those running the various leave campaigns to peddle even more brazen untruths which were swallowed by those looking to back fill with "facts", their emotional detachment from the EU.
Two of the main Brexiteers Farage and Bojo have both pursued a solely critical negative agenda yet don't have a constructive idea between them. Farage is a childish buffoon who is happy to take a salary from an institution he supposedly despises to which he contributes nothing.
If Brexit is to work it needs to have capable politicians leading it who don't bail out at the drop of a hat.
As a man who despises hypocrisy in others, I do find it interesting that those in Government (many of whom have berated Remainers, over the last two years, to "get behind" Brexit, despite any misgivings that they may have) charged with bringing Brexit to fruition seem so keen to resign, just as soon as they are being asked to "get behind" a different form of Brexit than the one that they wanted.
Bringing a divided country together? I can't see that happening unless one of the two sides simply surrenders. The winners are not able to persuade me that they know what they're doing, how to do it, or what the upside is. Indeed to make matters worse the winners are somehow blaming the losers for their victory. Brexiteers should own their victory and get on with it, the only obstacle in their way is themselves. Losers can now be the eternal critics, as EU haters were before. In what universe does anybody think this country can be brought together?
As a man who despises hypocrisy in others, I do find it interesting that the first thing that those in Government (many of whom have berated Remainers, over the last two years, to "get behind" Brexit, despite any misgivings that they may have) charged with bringing Brexit to fruition seem so keen to resign, just as soon as they are being asked to "get behind" a different form of Brexit than the one that they wanted.
It's almost ironic....
BoJo always bails out - he much prefers criticising from the sidelined as he doesn't want to be held to account for anything. He's a coward and a liar and how anyone can get behind him is beyond me.
So part of this is making plans for a no deal brexit.
Stockpiling food.
Why is it a secret plan. Seriously, why a secret? Is there anybody in the known universe that can explain why stockpiling processed food in preparation for a no deal brexit would need to be a 'secret'?
And.
Presumably stockpiling medicines. A huge security presence on the land border in Ireland. Manston airport and the M20/M2 being sorted for the tailbacks. New air routes being created to avoid the airspace of the countries we have separated from without a deal. No sharing of security information. The forced repatriation of UK and EU citizens all over the gaff.....and so on. This is not project fear, it is project prepare.
No deal is better than a bad deal brexiters say. Then look at the practical realities of your no deal in the face and explain how it is going to work out.
Brexit won, and brexit voters knew what they were voting for.
So part of this is making plans for a no deal brexit.
Stockpiling food.
Why is it a secret plan. Seriously, why a secret? Is there anybody in the known universe that can explain why stockpiling processed food in preparation for a no deal brexit would need to be a 'secret'?
And.
Presumably stockpiling medicines. A huge security presence on the land border in Ireland. Manston airport and the M20/M2 being sorted for the tailbacks. New air routes being created to avoid the airspace of the countries we have separated from without a deal. No sharing of security information. The forced repatriation of UK and EU citizens all over the gaff.....and so on. This is not project fear, it is project prepare.
No deal is better than a bad deal brexiters say. Then look at the practical realities of your no deal in the face and explain how it is going to work out.
Brexit won, and brexit voters knew what they were voting for.
They would like it to be secret because it is so embarrassing. We have a government who are preparing to inflict not pre war or post war but war time restrictions on it's citizens for no other reason than to satisfy the 60 or so crazy freaks in it's own party. And all stemming from a fraudulent and advisory referendum held more than 2 years ago.
So part of this is making plans for a no deal brexit.
Stockpiling food.
Why is it a secret plan. Seriously, why a secret? Is there anybody in the known universe that can explain why stockpiling processed food in preparation for a no deal brexit would need to be a 'secret'?
And.
Presumably stockpiling medicines. A huge security presence on the land border in Ireland. Manston airport and the M20/M2 being sorted for the tailbacks. New air routes being created to avoid the airspace of the countries we have separated from without a deal. No sharing of security information. The forced repatriation of UK and EU citizens all over the gaff.....and so on. This is not project fear, it is project prepare.
No deal is better than a bad deal brexiters say. Then look at the practical realities of your no deal in the face and explain how it is going to work out.
Brexit won, and brexit voters knew what they were voting for.
They would like it to be secret because it is so embarrassing. We have a government who are preparing to inflict not pre war or post war but war time restrictions on it's citizens for no other reason than to satisfy the 60 or so crazy freaks in it's own party. And all stemming from a fraudulent and advisory referendum held more than 2 years ago.
I'm sure the politicians know what they are doing and everything will be okay in the long term. There may be a few glitches but nothing to worry about.
Just back from a little Fjordland jolly in Norway. Clever people the Norwegians their Sovereign Fund from oil revenues now accounts to 1.5m euros per Norwegian and used on infrastructure such as tunnels and road improvements and retained for when reserve in oil run out.
So I think what's good for the Norwegians is fine by me.
Also our tour guides were Belgian Dutch and Italian. All the local Norwegians are making a bundle out of hydro electric power. Yes they have water too in abundance.
We should have let them rape and pillage a little more.
Just back from a little Fjordland jolly in Norway. Clever people the Norwegians their Sovereign Fund from oil revenues now accounts to 1.5m euros per Norwegian and used on infrastructure such as tunnels and road improvements and retained for when reserve in oil run out.
So I think what's good for the Norwegians is fine by me.
Also our tour guides were Belgian Dutch and Italian. All the local Norwegians are making a bundle out of hydro electric power. Yes they have water too in abundance.
We should have let them rape and pillage a little more.
Or maybe when we had oil we should have invested in a sovereign fund rather than squandering the benefits on tax cuts for the rich.
Since we're discussing our government's belated plans to prepare for "no deal" (clearly still better than a poor deal...) here's some news that went under the radar last week.
"It is not an easy task pushing forward with preparations for EU exit surrounded by what ifs. BEIS, National Trading Standards and the CMA have at least recognised which areas need to be ready by day one, but they will need cross-government support in implementing these priorities and cross-border cooperation to ensure UK consumers and businesses can continue to trade smoothly. “There will be many areas that departments and authorities across Whitehall simply cannot be prepared for, so the government needs to seriously help departments scramble and prioritise their efforts around what matters most to us come 30 March 2019.”
Amyas Morse, the head of the NAO, 6 July 2018
For those that won't bother following the link highlights include the Competition & Markets Authority needing to replicate the current EU functions domestically, requiring the recruitment of a further 240 civil servants. No idea where one might find nearly 250 experts in competition law from but I expect they won't be cheap and of course this is replicated across many other government departments too.
Given that Farage and Johnson publically backed in Noway solution in the run-up and the official leave website supported staying in the Single Market and Customs Union, isn't a No-deal or a Hard-Brexit going against the will of the British people?
I suspect a no deal could scupper Brexit altogether. Can't see how MPs of all colours who oppose it will let it happen!
It remains to be seen whether the UK could unilaterally rescind its Article 50 notification and continue as if 2016's referendum had never happened.
There may not prove to be enough time, particularly if negotiations continue beyond October, for Brexit to be stopped, even if it is the express will of Parliament (or even the result of another referendum).
Re your post linking the UK's faltering GDP growth to inability to improve productivity since 2009...
On the way home I managed to get what's left of my brain around an FT Big Read on the topic.
The synopsis is " Many British companies could benefit from improving simple management practices, or just adopting them in the first place".
It all rang horribly true to me; however the point I wish to make here is that nothing linked our EU membership to this systemic failure of British management skills. Still less did it suggest that leaving the EU would somehow bring about a miraculous improvement in such management.
Since the article traces the roots of this problem back at least 20 years in comparative terms, I still fail to understand how it accounts for the decoupling of GDP growth patterns between the UK and the EU 27 in the last 18 months (UK slowing, EU improving). So I don't think you can ignore this, even if I can certainly agree with you that failure to improve productivity is a key issue for the UK.
Our productivity issue is UK created, and can and should be fixed regardless of our EU membership. As should fixing our NHS, our elderly care, our railways, our London economic imbalance, our broken property market, etc etc etc. All sod all to do with EU membership and I look forward to the day when such an intelligent person as you are finally concedes the truth of this.
The EU would gladly let us rip it all up - even let us have more time in these circumstances. I think they have indicated such already.
Certain EU Commission members, and some national leaders have, without a doubt.
But, should it prove that a reversion to the status quo ante would require unanimity on the part of the EU, there could still be some jarring moments.
I think we might have to give a couple of concessions but I reckon that the EU would welcome us back like a prodigal son and put this nonsense behind them
The EU would gladly let us rip it all up - even let us have more time in these circumstances. I think they have indicated such already.
Certain EU Commission members, and some national leaders have, without a doubt.
But, should it prove that a reversion to the status quo ante would require unanimity on the part of the EU, there could still be some jarring moments.
I think we might have to give a couple of concessions but I reckon that the EU would welcome us back like a prodigal son and put this nonsense behind them
I don't think there is any doubt that the Commission, Germany, France as well as Italy, Denmark and Netherlands would make sure we come back on pretty much the same terms.
The EU would gladly let us rip it all up - even let us have more time in these circumstances. I think they have indicated such already.
Certain EU Commission members, and some national leaders have, without a doubt.
But, should it prove that a reversion to the status quo ante would require unanimity on the part of the EU, there could still be some jarring moments.
I think we might have to give a couple of concessions but I reckon that the EU would welcome us back like a prodigal son and put this nonsense behind them
I don't think there is any doubt that the Commission, Germany, France as well as Italy, Denmark and Netherlands would make sure we come back on pretty much the same terms.
This whole sorry saga is dying
If that happens I reckon it is down to the winners for failing to carry out the wishes of the British people.
Just back from a little Fjordland jolly in Norway. Clever people the Norwegians their Sovereign Fund from oil revenues now accounts to 1.5m euros per Norwegian and used on infrastructure such as tunnels and road improvements and retained for when reserve in oil run out.
So I think what's good for the Norwegians is fine by me.
Also our tour guides were Belgian Dutch and Italian. All the local Norwegians are making a bundle out of hydro electric power. Yes they have water too in abundance.
We should have let them rape and pillage a little more.
Or maybe when we had oil we should have invested in a sovereign fund rather than squandering the benefits on tax cuts for the rich.
A practice carried out by labour and tories alike depending on how you define rich.
One could argue it was "squandered on benefits" as well.
But the point is the Uk has lacked central ground consensus politics. It drifts from one extreme to the other and looks set to do so in the near future. No blame attached to the EU on this one.
Comments
Everyone knows that if you are going into a room to bargain for something you go in with your best bid & expect to have to climb down a bit......and then some.
Does anyone really think that whatever is in the White Paper on thursday is still going to be there come October when the other EU countries finally vote on it. One of the EU negotiators said as much on Newsnight tonight. He said it was a starting point and no more.
It is only going to get worse.
PS.
love the way that the UK is 1 of only 6 NATO countries that is putting in the required 2% of GDP (US contributes 3.4%). The top 3 largest European economies put in a lot less.
Fair playing field.....fuck no. I'd be withholding the £37bn "divorce bill" until the rest pay what they are contracted to do.
So, good luck with the idea of you withholding an agreed payment to one because of a dispute within the other. It's a sure fire way of achieving a disorderly Brexit without any form of agreement, with every aspect of international cooperation between the UK and EU27 open to disruption and delay.
In any event, I understand that the 2% is an aspirational commitment, and countries are committed to meeting it by 2024.
May's lot will sort it all out.
For the referendum to be meaningful there needed to be more planning and a clearly articulated Brexit strategy. Everything was simply too vague hence the mess we are in now.
The blame lies with Cameron who has created one unholy mess and further divisions within the country.
I am visiting England at the moment and having a brilliant time but I am struck by how often I am hearing that it is so good how the England team is doing, especially as it is causing a divided country to come together. Delighted the team are doing well but sad that we see ourselves as being so divided. It is how the UK is seen from abroad unfortunately as well - when even Donald Trump describes the country as being 'in turmoil' you know we have got ourselves in a needless mess.
If Brexit is to work it needs to have capable politicians leading it who don't bail out at the drop of a hat.
It's almost ironic....
I can't see that happening unless one of the two sides simply surrenders.
The winners are not able to persuade me that they know what they're doing, how to do it, or what the upside is.
Indeed to make matters worse the winners are somehow blaming the losers for their victory.
Brexiteers should own their victory and get on with it, the only obstacle in their way is themselves.
Losers can now be the eternal critics, as EU haters were before.
In what universe does anybody think this country can be brought together?
Still, blue passports
Stockpiling food.
Why is it a secret plan.
Seriously, why a secret? Is there anybody in the known universe that can explain why stockpiling processed food in preparation for a no deal brexit would need to be a 'secret'?
And.
Presumably stockpiling medicines.
A huge security presence on the land border in Ireland.
Manston airport and the M20/M2 being sorted for the tailbacks.
New air routes being created to avoid the airspace of the countries we have separated from without a deal.
No sharing of security information.
The forced repatriation of UK and EU citizens all over the gaff.....and so on.
This is not project fear, it is project prepare.
No deal is better than a bad deal brexiters say.
Then look at the practical realities of your no deal in the face and explain how it is going to work out.
Brexit won, and brexit voters knew what they were voting for.
brexitcup a soups and tinned pineapple.Clever people the Norwegians their Sovereign Fund from oil revenues now accounts to 1.5m euros per Norwegian and used on infrastructure such as tunnels and road improvements and retained for when reserve in oil run out.
So I think what's good for the Norwegians is fine by me.
Also our tour guides were Belgian Dutch and Italian. All the local Norwegians are making a bundle out of hydro electric power. Yes they have water too in abundance.
We should have let them rape and pillage a little more.
https://nao.org.uk/press-release/exiting-the-eu-consumer-protection-competition-and-state-aid/
"It is not an easy task pushing forward with preparations for EU exit surrounded by what ifs. BEIS, National Trading Standards and the CMA have at least recognised which areas need to be ready by day one, but they will need cross-government support in implementing these priorities and cross-border cooperation to ensure UK consumers and businesses can continue to trade smoothly. “There will be many areas that departments and authorities across Whitehall simply cannot be prepared for, so the government needs to seriously help departments scramble and prioritise their efforts around what matters most to us come 30 March 2019.”
Amyas Morse, the head of the NAO, 6 July 2018
For those that won't bother following the link highlights include the Competition & Markets Authority needing to replicate the current EU functions domestically, requiring the recruitment of a further 240 civil servants. No idea where one might find nearly 250 experts in competition law from but I expect they won't be cheap and of course this is replicated across many other government departments too.
There may not prove to be enough time, particularly if negotiations continue beyond October, for Brexit to be stopped, even if it is the express will of Parliament (or even the result of another referendum).
Re your post linking the UK's faltering GDP growth to inability to improve productivity since 2009...
On the way home I managed to get what's left of my brain around an FT Big Read on the topic.
The synopsis is " Many British companies could benefit from improving simple management practices, or just adopting them in the first place".
It all rang horribly true to me; however the point I wish to make here is that nothing linked our EU membership to this systemic failure of British management skills. Still less did it suggest that leaving the EU would somehow bring about a miraculous improvement in such management.
Since the article traces the roots of this problem back at least 20 years in comparative terms, I still fail to understand how it accounts for the decoupling of GDP growth patterns between the UK and the EU 27 in the last 18 months (UK slowing, EU improving). So I don't think you can ignore this, even if I can certainly agree with you that failure to improve productivity is a key issue for the UK.
Our productivity issue is UK created, and can and should be fixed regardless of our EU membership. As should fixing our NHS, our elderly care, our railways, our London economic imbalance, our broken property market, etc etc etc. All sod all to do with EU membership and I look forward to the day when such an intelligent person as you are finally concedes the truth of this.
But, should it prove that a reversion to the status quo ante would require unanimity on the part of the EU, there could still be some jarring moments.
This whole sorry saga is dying
One could argue it was "squandered on benefits" as well.
But the point is the Uk has lacked central ground consensus politics. It drifts from one extreme to the other and looks set to do so in the near future. No blame attached to the EU on this one.