As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Yup. Sadly I remember it well.
But this is worse and I fear the market will fall much further before someone says enough.
I'm hoping it will bottom out around 3700 to 3750 which is approx 50% below value at start of year. If it drops below that even my extreme pessimism will have been exceeded.
A lot of people will really suffer from this.
I can see your 3700. 2003 - 2008 channel would be about 3900 but really don't think this is going to be as bad as 2008.
Several people have rightly pointed out that uncertainty is what spooks markets. One of the reasons for this uncertainty is the lack of global leadership, by which is meant leaders with the maturity to reach out to other leaders and agree on co-ordinated measures. Trump is of course the worst example of this, and his speech yesterday and his complete lack of a strategy up to now is what has driven the markets down today. He is basically panicking because he seems to think that high- riding markets are key to his re-election. We are all now paying the price for having this oaf as head of the world’s most powerful country.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Then there was a reason for the crash - US trade figs, combined with trebble witching hour. Didnt help that the UK stock market was shut on the Friday (due to the hurricane that Micheal Fish denied) and so Monday the UK opened up lower & kept going south.
At the moment I cant see a reason for the dramatic falls. Yes, global companies are going to be hit by the fall-out of Covid 19, but they aren't all having their profits halved.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
I sort of agree. However, just because the FTSE, Dow, S&P etc are all down 10% doesn't necessarily mean your pension has lost that amount. As said earlier, a well balanced portfolio should mean seeing losses of half that, or less . I know that might not seem comforting, but unless you are 100% in a FTSE tracker fund things arent as bad as the headline figures suggest
As an amateur investor, I've read a lot of posts on here and have a lot of respect for the knowledge and expertise of those who post on here and share their knowledge so freely and openly.
But I honestly think this situation is not going to right itself in a couple of months. This has now got the smell of complete panic all over it. I said at the start of the week the FTSE could fall through the 5000 barrier this week. That may not happen now this week but if the panics continue it could well happen next week.
Just got in from a lovely walk and a quick top-up shopping at my local supermarket (where there is no pasta and only a handful of toilet rolls left!) to find the FTSE is now down over 500 points and the Dow has opened over 2000 points down). My prediction of the FTSE falling through the 5000 mark this week still on!
Let's hope the traders feel more confident soon!
Rivalling 1987 at present.....
Then there was a reason for the crash - US trade figs, combined with trebble witching hour. Didnt help that the UK stock market was shut on the Friday (due to the hurricane that Micheal Fish denied) and so Monday the UK opened up lower & kept going south.
At the moment I cant see a reason for the dramatic falls. Yes, global companies are going to be hit by the fall-out of Covid 19, but they aren't all having their profits halved.
I agree with you. The selling seems a huge overreaction yet it continues - have companies really lost this much value?
10.87% fall today and 7.7% on Monday seems OTT. Politicians need to inspire confidence.
Several people have rightly pointed out that uncertainty is what spooks markets. One of the reasons for this uncertainty is the lack of global leadership, by which is meant leaders with the maturity to reach out to other leaders and agree on co-ordinated measures. Trump is of course the worst example of this, and his speech yesterday and his complete lack of a strategy up to now is what has driven the markets down today. He is basically panicking because he seems to think that high- riding markets are key to his re-election. We are all now paying the price for having this oaf as head of the world’s most powerful country.
I guess this is a general realisation that "globalisation" isn't going to be quite as lucrative as it was cracked up to be!
If something like this happens once a decade we're all going to be 10 - 20 % worse off than we thought. Not just share values but GDP, wages, everything will simply be not as good as expected.
With populations and their leaders determined to "make their own countries great again", I don't really see how the global economy can function effectively and steer round real problems. Climate change will probably be the next biggie!
We'll all just have to get used to being a bit poorer.
Several people have rightly pointed out that uncertainty is what spooks markets. One of the reasons for this uncertainty is the lack of global leadership, by which is meant leaders with the maturity to reach out to other leaders and agree on co-ordinated measures. Trump is of course the worst example of this, and his speech yesterday and his complete lack of a strategy up to now is what has driven the markets down today. He is basically panicking because he seems to think that high- riding markets are key to his re-election. We are all now paying the price for having this oaf as head of the world’s most powerful country.
I guess this is a general realisation that "globalisation" isn't going to be quite as lucrative as it was cracked up to be!
If something like this happens once a decade we're all going to be 10 - 20 % worse off than we thought. Not just share values but GDP, wages, everything will simply be not as good as expected.
With populations and their leaders determined to "make their own countries great again", I don't really see how the global economy can function effectively and steer round real problems. Climate change will probably be the next biggie!
We'll all just have to get used to being a bit poorer.
A lot poorer sadly in my case. My pension is evaporating....
Several people have rightly pointed out that uncertainty is what spooks markets. One of the reasons for this uncertainty is the lack of global leadership, by which is meant leaders with the maturity to reach out to other leaders and agree on co-ordinated measures. Trump is of course the worst example of this, and his speech yesterday and his complete lack of a strategy up to now is what has driven the markets down today. He is basically panicking because he seems to think that high- riding markets are key to his re-election. We are all now paying the price for having this oaf as head of the world’s most powerful country.
I think we know from your previous postings you are not a fan of Trump. Fair enough. Many people share your point of view. But to put the blame on him for this crash is in my opinion hopelessly wide of the mark. The falls we are seeing now have been going on for nearly 3 weeks now.
I put the blame on the traders - and before I get my wrist slapped again, I know most trading is carried out automatically these days - who come into work and come out with stuff like "we didn't feel confident today" and then seemingly are content to sit and watch as their programmes crash the market and wipe out years of growth in days. Maybe market falls don't matter to them as they just sell shares and buy them back more cheaply but to ordinary investors like me, it makes me wonder why I bother.
Several people have rightly pointed out that uncertainty is what spooks markets. One of the reasons for this uncertainty is the lack of global leadership, by which is meant leaders with the maturity to reach out to other leaders and agree on co-ordinated measures. Trump is of course the worst example of this, and his speech yesterday and his complete lack of a strategy up to now is what has driven the markets down today. He is basically panicking because he seems to think that high- riding markets are key to his re-election. We are all now paying the price for having this oaf as head of the world’s most powerful country.
I think we know from your previous postings you are not a fan of Trump. Fair enough. Many people share your point of view. But to put the blame on him for this crash is in my opinion hopelessly wide of the mark. The falls we are seeing now have been going on for nearly 3 weeks now.
I put the blame on the traders - and before I get my wrist slapped again, I know most trading is carried out automatically these days - who come into work and come out with stuff like "we didn't feel confident today" and then seemingly are content to sit and watch as their programmes crash the market and wipe out years of growth in days. Maybe market falls don't matter to them as they just sell shares and buy them back more cheaply but to ordinary investors like me, it makes me wonder why I bother.
Most ordinary investors get stiffed along with pension funds - the traders I imagine are quids in along with the Hedge funds.
@Fortune 82nd Minute Damn right I am no fan of Trump, and nor do I apologise for “introducing politics” into the thread. Anyone who does not understand that politics influences markets, needs to stick to Premium Bonds.
I am on a train with a variable signal, so I cannot find it to post so easily but on Twitter there are loads of posts charting the fall of the S&P in line with the progress of his speech. Are you aware that he appeared to suggest at one point that the ban would extend to goods as well as people? They had to quickly come out and confirm that he “misspoke”, in modern parlance. Can you imagine the effect that had on investors? This is the President of the USA , FFS! And of course no one has come up with a sensible explanation for his exemption for the UK and Ireland. If it was based on low number of cases, he should have exempted Bulgaria. What was it? The Special Relationship? Someone better inform the virus then. Now, his hotel biz only has European interests in the UK and Ireland. That could not possibly be it, could it? But what else is it? This is the Leader of the Free World, I repeat. If you are a global investor, of course you sre gojng to be spooked, since it looks like the Free World is being led by a self- interested idiot.
All that said, I will still be feeding in a bit more cash when I get back. You keep looking for culprits among the traders, but they have to trade. Where has the money gone? It hasnt gone into a cash ISA, has it? It will just take longer to return- but to talk about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement ( although I am sure you didn’t mean to, and I dont mean to be personally harsh) . Lets say this time next year it has returned to 7000, then the money you had invested in 2016 will still be showing much better returns than if you had it in a cash deposit. The people I feel sorry for are those who need to access their pensions in the next 12 months. Not that Trump gives a flying one about them, unless they have a US vote.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
Six months ago I decided to take out the 25% tax free lump sum from my SIPP that I was allowed (a not inconsiderable amount) and invest it elsewhere, getting only about 2% return, but I was worried about the impact of Brexit on the markets and thought by doing that I’d protect at least some of my pot. Three months later my other investments had risen by a reasonable amount and I doubted the wisdom of what I’d done. Not now. My remaining pot has dropped considerably in value. Although retiring next year at 58 I don’t need to start taking a pension from my SIPP until I’m 61 so I’m just hoping that by the markets are back to where they were pre Coronavirus.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
Good statement : I totally agree we are now in totally unknown territory, an whilst there are people on here who are employed in the industry, even their comments and views are being proven wrong by the market. As iv said in early Feb the stock / fund part of my portfolio was at £170,000 at close this afternoon, it’s now £122,000 I am £48,000 down. Now whilst a lot of this is wiping out my profits and dividend re-investments from previous years, this is a massive blow. Fortunately, I hold around 45% in cash in one year bonds 1.89% and post office easy access at 1.45%. So iv no need to panic and sell.
My own market holding is now 28% down. So I’m a little lost how the claim is that pension funds will have lost 5% or 10% at worst. I am no idiot and whilst over weight in Lloyds 62000 shares, I’m reasonably balanced in other area, with holdings in Euro, Asia, Bonds, global and USA funds. With the FTSE down from around 7500 to 5230 which is 30% , I doubt these 5% -10% can be accurate in even the most balanced of portfolios. Unless we are looking at something heavily cash based.
I think many pension holdings will be suffering far bigger drops than 5-10%. Obviously those that have moved into later years safer investments may be lesser impacted. But, others could be severely hit and suffering big losses. Glad I didn’t move my Final Salary pension into cash and go for drawdown. I’m happy knowing that’s not impacted.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
Good statement : I totally agree we are now in totally unknown territory, an whilst there are people on here who are employed in the industry, even their comments and views are being proven wrong by the market. As iv said in early Feb the stock / fund part of my portfolio was at £170,000 at close this afternoon, it’s now £122,000 I am £48,000 down. Now whilst a lot of this is wiping out my profits and dividend re-investments from previous years, this is a massive blow. Fortunately, I hold around 45% in cash in one year bonds 1.89% and post office easy access at 1.45%. So iv no need to panic and sell.
My own market holding is now 28% down. So I’m a little lost how the claim is that pension funds will have lost 5% or 10% at worst. I am no idiot and whilst over weight in Lloyds 62000 shares, I’m reasonably balanced in other area, with holdings in Euro, Asia, Bonds, global and USA funds. With the FTSE down from around 7500 to 5230 which is 30% , I doubt these 5% -10% can be accurate in even the most balanced of portfolios. Unless we are looking at something heavily cash based.
I can't even bring myself to look at my pension funds at present. I'm by nature a pessimist but not in my wildest dreams did I think the markets would tank so spectacularly. I thought initially the FTSE would bottom out at 5000 but can now see 3700 as a possibility. Some serious money to be made if you have cash to invest but sadly I don't.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
Good statement : I totally agree we are now in totally unknown territory, an whilst there are people on here who are employed in the industry, even their comments and views are being proven wrong by the market. As iv said in early Feb the stock / fund part of my portfolio was at £170,000 at close this afternoon, it’s now £122,000 I am £48,000 down. Now whilst a lot of this is wiping out my profits and dividend re-investments from previous years, this is a massive blow. Fortunately, I hold around 45% in cash in one year bonds 1.89% and post office easy access at 1.45%. So iv no need to panic and sell.
My own market holding is now 28% down. So I’m a little lost how the claim is that pension funds will have lost 5% or 10% at worst. I am no idiot and whilst over weight in Lloyds 62000 shares, I’m reasonably balanced in other area, with holdings in Euro, Asia, Bonds, global and USA funds. With the FTSE down from around 7500 to 5230 which is 30% , I doubt these 5% -10% can be accurate in even the most balanced of portfolios. Unless we are looking at something heavily cash based.
Just to clarify........I would say your "portfolio" includes your cash holdings, seeing as your investments are heavily weighted in equities. I would imagine, as you have intimated yourself, that you chose this investment strategy because you hold a lot in cash. Take the lot together & it probably isnt as bad as it sounds. I admit this weeks losses are unprecedented...... Monday was mostly down to the oil price halving but the last 2 days seems to be more to do with sheer panic. The traders people so dispise are also working for private clients, pension funds & corporate bodies......I doubt they are playing with their own money & taking "bets" or trying to short the market.
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
Six months ago I decided to take out the 25% tax free lump sum from my SIPP that I was allowed (a not inconsiderable amount) and invest it elsewhere, getting only about 2% return, but I was worried about the impact of Brexit on the markets and thought by doing that I’d protect at least some of my pot. Three months later my other investments had risen by a reasonable amount and I doubted the wisdom of what I’d done. Not now. My remaining pot has dropped considerably in value. Although retiring next year at 58 I don’t need to start taking a pension from my SIPP until I’m 61 so I’m just hoping that by the markets are back to where they were pre Coronavirus.
Funny thing is, If I was to put your strategy into a Suitability Letter (the document I have to show the reasons for my advice) it would he very hard to get through compliance I am told that the FCA dont like people taking their 25% TFC out of their pension just to put it into a deposit account. It is not deemed suitable advice to take money out of a tax efficient environment into one that is less so. Easy to see where the FCA are coming from, but not easy to explain to a client at the moment.
@Fortune 82nd Minute Damn right I am no fan of Trump, and nor do I apologise for “introducing politics” into the thread. Anyone who does not understand that politics influences markets, needs to stick to Premium Bonds.
I am on a train with a variable signal, so I cannot find it to post so easily but on Twitter there are loads of posts charting the fall of the S&P in line with the progress of his speech. Are you aware that he appeared to suggest at one point that the ban would extend to goods as well as people? They had to quickly come out and confirm that he “misspoke”, in modern parlance. Can you imagine the effect that had on investors? This is the President of the USA , FFS! And of course no one has come up with a sensible explanation for his exemption for the UK and Ireland. If it was based on low number of cases, he should have exempted Bulgaria. What was it? The Special Relationship? Someone better inform the virus then. Now, his hotel biz only has European interests in the UK and Ireland. That could not possibly be it, could it? But what else is it? This is the Leader of the Free World, I repeat. If you are a global investor, of course you sre gojng to be spooked, since it looks like the Free World is being led by a self- interested idiot.
All that said, I will still be feeding in a bit more cash when I get back. You keep looking for culprits among the traders, but they have to trade. Where has the money gone? It hasnt gone into a cash ISA, has it? It will just take longer to return- but to talk about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement ( although I am sure you didn’t mean to, and I dont mean to be personally harsh) . Lets say this time next year it has returned to 7000, then the money you had invested in 2016 will still be showing much better returns than if you had it in a cash deposit. The people I feel sorry for are those who need to access their pensions in the next 12 months. Not that Trump gives a flying one about them, unless they have a US vote.
Thanks for your reply.
FWIW, I don't understand how UK residents have been exempted from the ban either. But I will say that in my opinion even if the saintly Obama was still President, it would have made little difference to the huge falls seen on the Dow this last couple of days. These falls are driven by fear and blind panic (and greed?) and nothing would have stopped them.
BTW, I don't understand the dig about "talking about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement". All I've been saying is that to get back to the level the FTSE was before this crash started could take a long time - there's no obvious reason at all why it should rebound quickly. And my own personal opinion is that with the hits the world economies are about to take, you are very optimistic thinking the index will be back to 7000 this time next year. But I hope you are right and I am wrong!
Since this round of postings have started since the FTSE has started collapsing, I have really not understood why anyone thinks this is just a temporary blip that will quickly correct itself. The Coronavirus scare plus the economic slowdown it is now certain to cause means we are in unchartered water. With seemingly no-one able to stop the selling - traders all now disliking the uncertainty and not feeling confident, poor dears - who know where the FTSE is going to bottom out. Personally, I can see the FTSE going through the 5000 barrier in the next few days - the question is how far will it drop? Your guess is as good as mine - I'm hopeful the 4500 mark might see the bottom, but I wouldn't argue against the 3700 called by @hoof_it_up_to_benty
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
Six months ago I decided to take out the 25% tax free lump sum from my SIPP that I was allowed (a not inconsiderable amount) and invest it elsewhere, getting only about 2% return, but I was worried about the impact of Brexit on the markets and thought by doing that I’d protect at least some of my pot. Three months later my other investments had risen by a reasonable amount and I doubted the wisdom of what I’d done. Not now. My remaining pot has dropped considerably in value. Although retiring next year at 58 I don’t need to start taking a pension from my SIPP until I’m 61 so I’m just hoping that by the markets are back to where they were pre Coronavirus.
Funny thing is, If I was to put your strategy into a Suitability Letter (the document I have to show the reasons for my advice) it would he very hard to get through compliance I am told that the FCA dont like people taking their 25% TFC out of their pension just to put it into a deposit account. It is not deemed suitable advice to take money out of a tax efficient environment into one that is less so. Easy to see where the FCA are coming from, but not easy to explain to a client at the moment.
I was actually advised not to do it but ultimately they couldn’t stop me doing so.
what I don’t get is why were all markets not suspended for a few months or is that too simplistic?
I think long-term it could do more damage than good. People would be terrified of it happening again and would cause people to sell a lot heavier, a lot sooner if something else (not suggesting this will be a common occurrence!) Kicks off
@Fortune 82nd Minute Damn right I am no fan of Trump, and nor do I apologise for “introducing politics” into the thread. Anyone who does not understand that politics influences markets, needs to stick to Premium Bonds.
I am on a train with a variable signal, so I cannot find it to post so easily but on Twitter there are loads of posts charting the fall of the S&P in line with the progress of his speech. Are you aware that he appeared to suggest at one point that the ban would extend to goods as well as people? They had to quickly come out and confirm that he “misspoke”, in modern parlance. Can you imagine the effect that had on investors? This is the President of the USA , FFS! And of course no one has come up with a sensible explanation for his exemption for the UK and Ireland. If it was based on low number of cases, he should have exempted Bulgaria. What was it? The Special Relationship? Someone better inform the virus then. Now, his hotel biz only has European interests in the UK and Ireland. That could not possibly be it, could it? But what else is it? This is the Leader of the Free World, I repeat. If you are a global investor, of course you sre gojng to be spooked, since it looks like the Free World is being led by a self- interested idiot.
All that said, I will still be feeding in a bit more cash when I get back. You keep looking for culprits among the traders, but they have to trade. Where has the money gone? It hasnt gone into a cash ISA, has it? It will just take longer to return- but to talk about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement ( although I am sure you didn’t mean to, and I dont mean to be personally harsh) . Lets say this time next year it has returned to 7000, then the money you had invested in 2016 will still be showing much better returns than if you had it in a cash deposit. The people I feel sorry for are those who need to access their pensions in the next 12 months. Not that Trump gives a flying one about them, unless they have a US vote.
Thanks for your reply.
FWIW, I don't understand how UK residents have been exempted from the ban either. But I will say that in my opinion even if the saintly Obama was still President, it would have made little difference to the huge falls seen on the Dow this last couple of days. These falls are driven by fear and blind panic (and greed?) and nothing would have stopped them.
BTW, I don't understand the dig about "talking about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement". All I've been saying is that to get back to the level the FTSE was before this crash started could take a long time - there's no obvious reason at all why it should rebound quickly. And my own personal opinion is that with the hits the world economies are about to take, you are very optimistic thinking the index will be back to 7000 this time next year. But I hope you are right and I am wrong!
All I mean is that all of us who have equity investments are very pleased when new highs are hit, and then we think that somehow "we" deserve to permanently be at that level. It's natural behaviour in a way, but it is also unwise. If one believes a new high is the new normal one has to have real world reasons for believing it. In fact if you look back over this thread, several were predicting a correction even before coronavirus was more than just an odd thing happening in China. Well, here is the correction...7600 was never the new normal.
To make some of you who are sitting on big losses feel a bit better... my employer bans me buying shares in any company except itself (outside of windows and with relevant consents given of course). As such all eggs in one basket and that basket sits 50% down today. 🙁. If I was allowed to buy elsewhere I would be very tempted but would probably hold back to Monday to allow bad news Fridays out the way!
To make some of you who are sitting on big losses feel a bit better... my employer bans me buying shares in any company except itself (outside of windows and with relevant consents given of course). As such all eggs in one basket and that basket sits 50% down today. 🙁. If I was allowed to buy elsewhere I would be very tempted but would probably hold back to Monday to allow bad news Fridays out the way!
How can they stop you trading elsewhere? I've worked places before where yes you can only buy the employers shares in certain windows but thats mad.
FWIW for anyone wanting to invest, i've gone in on Go Ahead Group, £10.55
To make some of you who are sitting on big losses feel a bit better... my employer bans me buying shares in any company except itself (outside of windows and with relevant consents given of course). As such all eggs in one basket and that basket sits 50% down today. 🙁. If I was allowed to buy elsewhere I would be very tempted but would probably hold back to Monday to allow bad news Fridays out the way!
How can they stop you trading elsewhere? I've worked places before where yes you can only buy the employers shares in certain windows but thats mad.
FWIW for anyone wanting to invest, i've gone in on Go Ahead Group, £10.55
I would guess it's so you cant build up such a holding in another company that a takeover is possible......or the other way round where you could block a takeover.
To make some of you who are sitting on big losses feel a bit better... my employer bans me buying shares in any company except itself (outside of windows and with relevant consents given of course). As such all eggs in one basket and that basket sits 50% down today. 🙁. If I was allowed to buy elsewhere I would be very tempted but would probably hold back to Monday to allow bad news Fridays out the way!
How can they stop you trading elsewhere? I've worked places before where yes you can only buy the employers shares in certain windows but thats mad.
FWIW for anyone wanting to invest, i've gone in on Go Ahead Group, £10.55
Go Ahead own Southeastern, how dare you jump into bed with the enemy!!
To make some of you who are sitting on big losses feel a bit better... my employer bans me buying shares in any company except itself (outside of windows and with relevant consents given of course). As such all eggs in one basket and that basket sits 50% down today. 🙁. If I was allowed to buy elsewhere I would be very tempted but would probably hold back to Monday to allow bad news Fridays out the way!
How can they stop you trading elsewhere? I've worked places before where yes you can only buy the employers shares in certain windows but thats mad.
FWIW for anyone wanting to invest, i've gone in on Go Ahead Group, £10.55
Go Ahead own Southeastern, how dare you jump into bed with the enemy!!
Lol, i've commuted with SE for far too many years, the least I can do is make money on their shares! Been a very good share for me over the years and historically pay a decent dividend.
Comments
Falls of this magnitude are madness. Years and years of slow, careful growth wiped out in days. This is not investing, it is casino madness.
Nor do I understand those who say "The falls don't matter. Just stay invested etc". Falls like this matter for everyone who has their money invested for pension or other savings purposes. It could take years to get back to the 7600 level - and for anyone whose pensions become payable in the next few years it will wreck their payouts. It makes people feel considerably less wealthy (even if the losses are only on paper). They will stop people spending.
@golfaddick asked a few pages back why people preferred to leave their savings in accounts paying miserly interest rather than giving their money to him to invest. Well the last 14 days or so might provide some explanation! (I know, history shows that investments in the stock market always out-perform money held in cash over time!)
I desperately hope I am wrong. I hope the experts are right. But this looks to me like one of these occasions when the trough is going to be so low, it will take years to climb back to the peak.
At the moment I cant see a reason for the dramatic falls. Yes, global companies are going to be hit by the fall-out of Covid 19, but they aren't all having their profits halved.
10.87% fall today and 7.7% on Monday seems OTT. Politicians need to inspire confidence.
If something like this happens once a decade we're all going to be 10 - 20 % worse off than we thought. Not just share values but GDP, wages, everything will simply be not as good as expected.
With populations and their leaders determined to "make their own countries great again", I don't really see how the global economy can function effectively and steer round real problems. Climate change will probably be the next biggie!
We'll all just have to get used to being a bit poorer.
I put the blame on the traders - and before I get my wrist slapped again, I know most trading is carried out automatically these days - who come into work and come out with stuff like "we didn't feel confident today" and then seemingly are content to sit and watch as their programmes crash the market and wipe out years of growth in days. Maybe market falls don't matter to them as they just sell shares and buy them back more cheaply but to ordinary investors like me, it makes me wonder why I bother.
Very depressing if this continues..
I am on a train with a variable signal, so I cannot find it to post so easily but on Twitter there are loads of posts charting the fall of the S&P in line with the progress of his speech. Are you aware that he appeared to suggest at one point that the ban would extend to goods as well as people? They had to quickly come out and confirm that he “misspoke”, in modern parlance. Can you imagine the effect that had on investors? This is the President of the USA , FFS! And of course no one has come up with a sensible explanation for his exemption for the UK and Ireland. If it was based on low number of cases, he should have exempted Bulgaria. What was it? The Special Relationship? Someone better inform the virus then. Now, his hotel biz only has European interests in the UK and Ireland. That could not possibly be it, could it? But what else is it? This is the Leader of the Free World, I repeat. If you are a global investor, of course you sre gojng to be spooked, since it looks like the Free World is being led by a self- interested idiot.
All that said, I will still be feeding in a bit more cash when I get back. You keep looking for culprits among the traders, but they have to trade. Where has the money gone? It hasnt gone into a cash ISA, has it? It will just take longer to return- but to talk about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement ( although I am sure you didn’t mean to, and I dont mean to be personally harsh) . Lets say this time next year it has returned to 7000, then the money you had invested in 2016 will still be showing much better returns than if you had it in a cash deposit. The people I feel sorry for are those who need to access their pensions in the next 12 months. Not that Trump gives a flying one about them, unless they have a US vote.
I think many pension holdings will be suffering far bigger drops than 5-10%. Obviously those that have moved into later years safer investments may be lesser impacted. But, others could be severely hit and suffering big losses. Glad I didn’t move my Final Salary pension into cash and go for drawdown. I’m happy knowing that’s not impacted.
I can't even bring myself to look at my pension funds at present. I'm by nature a pessimist but not in my wildest dreams did I think the markets would tank so spectacularly. I thought initially the FTSE would bottom out at 5000 but can now see 3700 as a possibility. Some serious money to be made if you have cash to invest but sadly I don't.
FWIW, I don't understand how UK residents have been exempted from the ban either. But I will say that in my opinion even if the saintly Obama was still President, it would have made little difference to the huge falls seen on the Dow this last couple of days. These falls are driven by fear and blind panic (and greed?) and nothing would have stopped them.
BTW, I don't understand the dig about "talking about a return to 7600 is to display a sense of self-entitlement". All I've been saying is that to get back to the level the FTSE was before this crash started could take a long time - there's no obvious reason at all why it should rebound quickly. And my own personal opinion is that with the hits the world economies are about to take, you are very optimistic thinking the index will be back to 7000 this time next year. But I hope you are right and I am wrong!
FWIW for anyone wanting to invest, i've gone in on Go Ahead Group, £10.55