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Savings and Investments thread

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  • Rob7Lee said:
    Addickted said:
    All of a sudden, that meagre 1.2% cash ISA rate is looking more and more prudent.
    Switch it to a stocks & shares isa!
    Indeed. Last 4 weeks of the tax year. Any spare money then throw it into an ISA - make sure you use up your allowances.

    Great time to invest. 
  • It’ll bounce, I’m already up 30% this morning in 30 minutes.
  • Annoyed I transferred my cash Isa into funds a month ago now, as had spare time for the research etc, rather than get caught up and have only got to do so now! 
  • Can't believe all the "get in and buy" advice on here this morning.

    The FTSE is now at a level last seen on 24/2/16. 4 years of slow growth wiped out in 11 days as the traders in the city don't like uncertainty! And I'm no expert but anyone who thinks the market will bottom out soon, with the constant bad news on TV and in the papers about the spread of the coronavirus, is surely going to be hugely disappointed. In fact, I'll stick my neck out and say I can see the FTSE falling to about 4500 by the end of this month. And could still go much lower.

    Can't see at the moment how the falls will stop. Terrible trading on Europe today will undoubtedly mean the Dow drops again tonight, maybe another 1000 points. That leads to another fall tomorrow in the FTSE. And so it goes on.

    I've lived through a lot of crashes and yes, the market has always come back even if it has taken time eg 15 years to get back to the levels reached on 31/12/99. But this one looks very different to me and and with the kiddies in the City having little experience of events like coronvirus I can see this sell-off continuing for some time. (Not that the City traders care, of course, because they will still make their money even in a falling market). But for those of us invested for our future these are worrying times.  

     @PragueAddick My guess for the FTSE at 1 August is 5,300.
  • Can't believe all the "get in and buy" advice on here this morning.

    The FTSE is now at a level last seen on 24/2/16. 4 years of slow growth wiped out in 11 days as the traders in the city don't like uncertainty! And I'm no expert but anyone who thinks the market will bottom out soon, with the constant bad news on TV and in the papers about the spread of the coronavirus, is surely going to be hugely disappointed. In fact, I'll stick my neck out and say I can see the FTSE falling to about 4500 by the end of this month. And could still go much lower.

    Can't see at the moment how the falls will stop. Terrible trading on Europe today will undoubtedly mean the Dow drops again tonight, maybe another 1000 points. That leads to another fall tomorrow in the FTSE. And so it goes on.

    I've lived through a lot of crashes and yes, the market has always come back even if it has taken time eg 15 years to get back to the levels reached on 31/12/99. But this one looks very different to me and and with the kiddies in the City having little experience of events like coronvirus I can see this sell-off continuing for some time. (Not that the City traders care, of course, because they will still make their money even in a falling market). But for those of us invested for our future these are worrying times.  

     @PragueAddick My guess for the FTSE at 1 August is 5,300.
    But today isnt all about the virus. Seems mostly to do with the oil price.


  • So what do you reckon then? Where are we at the moment? Fear or panic?
  • @Rob7Lee - Did you buy any of your buy-to-lets at auction mate?
  • Got a general question re' exchange rates - What makes one currency gain on another when  there is uncertainty in the markets? People say they're all doing badly, but if one is doing badly against another, that must surely mean the "other" is doing well?
  • Can't believe all the "get in and buy" advice on here this morning.

    The FTSE is now at a level last seen on 24/2/16. 4 years of slow growth wiped out in 11 days as the traders in the city don't like uncertainty! And I'm no expert but anyone who thinks the market will bottom out soon, with the constant bad news on TV and in the papers about the spread of the coronavirus, is surely going to be hugely disappointed. In fact, I'll stick my neck out and say I can see the FTSE falling to about 4500 by the end of this month. And could still go much lower.

    Can't see at the moment how the falls will stop. Terrible trading on Europe today will undoubtedly mean the Dow drops again tonight, maybe another 1000 points. That leads to another fall tomorrow in the FTSE. And so it goes on.

    I've lived through a lot of crashes and yes, the market has always come back even if it has taken time eg 15 years to get back to the levels reached on 31/12/99. But this one looks very different to me and and with the kiddies in the City having little experience of events like coronvirus I can see this sell-off continuing for some time. (Not that the City traders care, of course, because they will still make their money even in a falling market). But for those of us invested for our future these are worrying times.  

     @PragueAddick My guess for the FTSE at 1 August is 5,300.
    But today isnt all about the virus. Seems mostly to do with the oil price.
    Indeed, I got in and out of PMO in 30 minutes and made 73%, had I of waited could have been 200%.
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  • or just less badly
  • @Rob7Lee - Did you buy any of your buy-to-lets at auction mate?
    No, I tend to leverage 70/75% finance which makes it more tricky at Auction.
  • Rob7Lee said:
    @Rob7Lee - Did you buy any of your buy-to-lets at auction mate?
    No, I tend to leverage 70/75% finance which makes it more tricky at Auction.
    Cheers mate
  • Got a general question re' exchange rates - What makes one currency gain on another when  there is uncertainty in the markets? People say they're all doing badly, but if one is doing badly against another, that must surely mean the "other" is doing well?

    Demand and supply, just like anything else.  And yes you're right that currencies are by definition a relative instrument and they can't all do badly concurrently, but if the gold price is rising then (as in many ways the ultimate store of capital) it reflects a general lack of confidence in fiat money.
  • @Fortune 82nd Minute

    I am definitely buying today, but not one big splurge. If it drops again, I buy again, and so on. Only way for a mug punter to get near the bottom of your curve.

    I believe we will get on top of Covid 19, it's not Lehman Bros, and as for the oil price, that can provide a boost for business. In the last long running crisis it was one reason why this govt cut (or failed to increase) fuel tax.

    Question for those in the know please because somehow I never seem to get it right.
    If I want to buy funds at a price which reflects today's losses, when do I buy on the platform? (H-L in my case). Today? Tomorrow (I think)? or even Wednesday. I've asked H-L more than once but their answers never seem to be that clear, maybe it's just me.
  • edited March 2020

    I am worried that these types of violent sell-offs and concurrent spikes in volatility may reveal fractures in the general plumbing of the financial system, similar to the way that an obscure asset class (subprime mortgages**) caused the 2007/8 crisis.  I don't have any particular potential catalyst in mind this time but after 10+ years of effectively zero global interest rates and suppressed volatility, there must be some type of excesses out there which may now come to the fore.  Several hot areas of investment/finance in recent years are all predicated upon volatility in particular remaining low and in many cases are quite leveraged (eg structured products, private credit).  Fortunately unlike in 2007/8, global banks are far better capitalized to the extent they are on the hook for any of this stuff which inevitably they will be.

    **Interestingly if you want to trace the beginnings of the subprime crisis, you can look in particular to 2005 when US house prices simply stopped rising.  In itself this simple data point was hardly a cause for alarm but in short it meant that anyone who was taking out a subprime loan with a 2-year low 'teaser' rate would hit 2007 and realize they had not built up sufficient equity to remortgage it as they could easily have done previously.  It's therefore no coincidence that the extreme crisis began in 2007 as defaults suddenly exploded.  Will a small initial virus outbreak in Wuhan be the 'house prices simply stopped rising' moment this time around??

  • The plumbing was never really fixed in 2008 was it, it was sort of botched, and then left for when something like this rips through the system and it blows up even worse. 

    Saying that, the Saudis fucking over Putin is quiet fun to watch 
  • edited March 2020
    @Fortune 82nd Minute

    I am definitely buying today, but not one big splurge. If it drops again, I buy again, and so on. Only way for a mug punter to get near the bottom of your curve.

    I believe we will get on top of Covid 19, it's not Lehman Bros, and as for the oil price, that can provide a boost for business. In the last long running crisis it was one reason why this govt cut (or failed to increase) fuel tax.

    Question for those in the know please because somehow I never seem to get it right.
    If I want to buy funds at a price which reflects today's losses, when do I buy on the platform? (H-L in my case). Today? Tomorrow (I think)? or even Wednesday. I've asked H-L more than once but their answers never seem to be that clear, maybe it's just me.
    Interesting one @Prague. Seeing as the whole UK industry is supposed to be on forward pricing then I would assume that if you bought into a fund today the price would be based on today's closing prices, which would usually be revalued overnight. I've been following my (and my clients ) portfolios daily but this doesnt always seem to be the case & values seem to be a day later, ie if you bought today you would get a price based on tomorrow. I only say that because the valuations I'm seeing don't seem to resemble reality, but that may be because the portfolios contain assets from around the world & also contain bonds & property.

    Saying all that, if you bought today you are certainly going to get more units for your money than you would have done last Friday. You can never really time the market, but atm isn't a bad time to be putting money in. 
  • Rothko said:
    The plumbing was never really fixed in 2008 was it, it was sort of botched, and then left for when something like this rips through the system and it blows up even worse. 

    Saying that, the Saudis fucking over Putin is quiet fun to watch 
    Depends how Putin reacts though. If he takes a kicking he normally finds someone to give an even bigger kicking to. Things are bad enough in the Middle East without even more tit for tat.
  • One of the biggest one day falls on record and the coronavirus journey has barely started. Blind panic seems to be setting in....
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  • @Fortune 82nd Minute

    I am definitely buying today, but not one big splurge. If it drops again, I buy again, and so on. Only way for a mug punter to get near the bottom of your curve.

    I believe we will get on top of Covid 19, it's not Lehman Bros, and as for the oil price, that can provide a boost for business. In the last long running crisis it was one reason why this govt cut (or failed to increase) fuel tax.

    Question for those in the know please because somehow I never seem to get it right.
    If I want to buy funds at a price which reflects today's losses, when do I buy on the platform? (H-L in my case). Today? Tomorrow (I think)? or even Wednesday. I've asked H-L more than once but their answers never seem to be that clear, maybe it's just me.
    Interesting one @Prague. Seeing as the whole UK industry is supposed to be on forward pricing then I would assume that if you bought into a fund today the price would be based on today's closing prices, which would usually be revalued overnight. I've been following my (and my clients ) portfolios daily but this doesnt always seem to be the case & values seem to be a day later, ie if you bought today you would get a price based on tomorrow. I only say that because the valuations I'm seeing don't seem to resemble reality, but that may be because the portfolios contain assets from around the world & also contain bonds & property.

    Saying all that, if you bought today you are certainly going to get more units for your money than you would have done last Friday. You can never really time the market, but atm isn't a bad time to be putting money in. 
    One of the many reasons I don't like funds is that there is no transparent, real time price.

    Having said that, LTI has been untradable for large parts of the day due to ludicrous spreads and HL's woeful platform performance.

    This is the final straw for me - next appropriate juncture I'm taking up Saxo's offer and moving across.
  • S&P 500 open 7% down & has now trading has been suspended.


    IME this just leads to even further losses when it re-opens.

  • Can't believe all the "get in and buy" advice on here this morning.

    The FTSE is now at a level last seen on 24/2/16. 4 years of slow growth wiped out in 11 days as the traders in the city don't like uncertainty! And I'm no expert but anyone who thinks the market will bottom out soon, with the constant bad news on TV and in the papers about the spread of the coronavirus, is surely going to be hugely disappointed. In fact, I'll stick my neck out and say I can see the FTSE falling to about 4500 by the end of this month. And could still go much lower.

    Can't see at the moment how the falls will stop. Terrible trading on Europe today will undoubtedly mean the Dow drops again tonight, maybe another 1000 points. That leads to another fall tomorrow in the FTSE. And so it goes on.

    I've lived through a lot of crashes and yes, the market has always come back even if it has taken time eg 15 years to get back to the levels reached on 31/12/99. But this one looks very different to me and and with the kiddies in the City having little experience of events like coronvirus I can see this sell-off continuing for some time. (Not that the City traders care, of course, because they will still make their money even in a falling market). But for those of us invested for our future these are worrying times.  

     @PragueAddick My guess for the FTSE at 1 August is 5,300.
    You often reference 'kiddies in the City' and similar but with respect I don't think you understand what is causing the sell-off - most trading/market-making is done electronically these days (if I understand the cohort you're referring to it's probably old school market-makers).  If markets sell off it's because there's significant selling pressure which requires lower prices to clear.  That selling in turn is being driven by a combination of institutional investors (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance cos. etc.) and more speculative investors (hedge funds, retail investors etc.).  It's got nothing whatsoever to do with City wideboys unless they actually oversee a pool of investment capital which is highly unlikely.
    I take your point. And I know, of course, that most trading is done electronically these days.

    But I still maintain that if there were some older, wiser heads around, who have traded their ways through this sort of crisis before, some thought would be given as to whether these huge losses that are now occurring are realistic or just blind panic. (As I write FTSE back down over 500 points. Will be interesting to see what the Dow does shortly.)  
  • Can't believe all the "get in and buy" advice on here this morning.

    The FTSE is now at a level last seen on 24/2/16. 4 years of slow growth wiped out in 11 days as the traders in the city don't like uncertainty! And I'm no expert but anyone who thinks the market will bottom out soon, with the constant bad news on TV and in the papers about the spread of the coronavirus, is surely going to be hugely disappointed. In fact, I'll stick my neck out and say I can see the FTSE falling to about 4500 by the end of this month. And could still go much lower.

    Can't see at the moment how the falls will stop. Terrible trading on Europe today will undoubtedly mean the Dow drops again tonight, maybe another 1000 points. That leads to another fall tomorrow in the FTSE. And so it goes on.

    I've lived through a lot of crashes and yes, the market has always come back even if it has taken time eg 15 years to get back to the levels reached on 31/12/99. But this one looks very different to me and and with the kiddies in the City having little experience of events like coronvirus I can see this sell-off continuing for some time. (Not that the City traders care, of course, because they will still make their money even in a falling market). But for those of us invested for our future these are worrying times.  

     @PragueAddick My guess for the FTSE at 1 August is 5,300.
    You often reference 'kiddies in the City' and similar but with respect I don't think you understand what is causing the sell-off - most trading/market-making is done electronically these days (if I understand the cohort you're referring to it's probably old school market-makers).  If markets sell off it's because there's significant selling pressure which requires lower prices to clear.  That selling in turn is being driven by a combination of institutional investors (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance cos. etc.) and more speculative investors (hedge funds, retail investors etc.).  It's got nothing whatsoever to do with City wideboys unless they actually oversee a pool of investment capital which is highly unlikely.
    I take your point. And I know, of course, that most trading is done electronically these days.

    But I still maintain that if there were some older, wiser heads around, who have traded their ways through this sort of crisis before, some thought would be given as to whether these huge losses that are now occurring are realistic or just blind panic. (As I write FTSE back down over 500 points. Will be interesting to see what the Dow does shortly.)  
    Well there's your answer . Dow down 1570 points. 
  • One of those rare occasions where most of my current investments are mainly in cash or appreciating assets, are therefore not giving me sleepless nights!

    Being conservative (with a small ‘c’) can be the sensible option, especially when one is as old as me!
  • Rob7Lee said:
    It’ll bounce, I’m already up 30% this morning in 30 minutes.
    I think we've already seen the bounce. This is the final landing of the dead cat after the bounce
  • edited March 2020
    Rob7Lee said:
    It’ll bounce, I’m already up 30% this morning in 30 minutes.
    I think we've already seen the bounce. This is the final landing of the dead cat after the bounce


    I meant longer term, not so much today, although PMO bounced well for me so sold.

    If you are actively investing now is a great time to do so, buy low sell high! (at some point).

    Unless you need the money soon, which being the case you were probably in the wrong investments, it's all good. 

  • edited March 2020
    Well my £170,000 portfolio is now £35,000 down .  What pisses me off most is wankers saying oh well it will come back.  FUCK OFF this could take 10 years to get back to where I was 4 weeks ago. 

    Now it’s a case of considering moving cash over to try and bring average down on my big losers. 


  • Well my £170,000 portfolio is now £35,000 down .  What pisses me off most is wankers saying oh well it will come back.  FUCK OFF this could take 10 years to get back to where I was 4 weeks ago. 

    Now it’s a case of considering moving cash over to try and bring average down on my big losers. 


    With respect, it seems you were in completely the wrong investments for your risk appetite, age etc. And it’s easy to compare to the highs. How does your fund compare to 10 years ago? 

    Before you throw cash at it I’d suggest you see an IFA as putting more in may not be best for your individual circumstances. What if you put more in and it drops further? Can you afford that for what could be an extended period?

    FWIW I think you’ll see some climb back over the next 6 months, may not be the whole £35k especially with ones like Lloyds and it may drop further still, but that’s the stock market, it goes up, it goes down.
  • Well my £170,000 portfolio is now £35,000 down .  What pisses me off most is wankers saying oh well it will come back.  FUCK OFF this could take 10 years to get back to where I was 4 weeks ago. 

    Now it’s a case of considering moving cash over to try and bring average down on my big losers. 


    CALM.

    No way will it take 10 years to get back to where we were at the start of the year. It might seem like armageddon atm but trust me, things will soon right themselves. Most of today's falls are down to the fall in the oil price. It had virtually halved overnight and big companies like BP & Shell (who combined make up 6% of the FTSE100 index) have seen massive falls in their share prices.

    Just been listening/watching a webinar from JP Morgan......mainly focusing on Covid 19 and the effects its having on worldwide economies. The fact that both China & S Korea are seeing rapid reductions in new cases means that soon China will be back at work. Their service sector has fallen off a cliff (GDP down 45%) and the US is likely to go into recession. 

    The falls in world stockmarket are not down to young whippersnappers who don't know what they are doing. Lots of very good analysts have been looking at data coming out from various countries......but the f**king oil price melt down is mainly to blame for today.
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