Just checked Coinbase to see how my £500 'toe in the water' purchase of a bit of a bitcoin and some Ethereum was doing. Shocked to see now worth a mere £145.00! Glad I didn't 'invest' thousands. What's going on!?
Just checked Coinbase to see how my £500 'toe in the water' purchase of a bit of a bitcoin and some Ethereum was doing. Shocked to see now worth a mere £145.00! Glad I didn't 'invest' thousands. What's going on!?
Just checked Coinbase to see how my £500 'toe in the water' purchase of a bit of a bitcoin and some Ethereum was doing. Shocked to see now worth a mere £145.00! Glad I didn't 'invest' thousands. What's going on!?
This one is for actual savings and actual investments. Not highly speculative imaginary stuff about which there were plenty of warnings. But what's going on is that people are gradually realising they've fallen for a giant con.
In this picture, you are the Native Americans acquiring trinkets. The people that are selling this stuff are the Dutch acquiring New Amsterdam. Oooh, look at the pretty trade beads! (Were trade beads the first crypto I wonder?)
I also had a little dabble in crypto at the beginning of the year, most of it in Vechain which allegedly has a real world business use. Haven't bothered to look but I imagine it has halved in value. But that's OK, it was only a small amount I set aside to try and get some understanding of it. More importantly I read a Motley Fool article that suggested the investment smart move is to back the big tech giants that are working with the blockchain tech. So I put a fair amount into Polar Capital tech fund, which is showing me between 12-18% increase since the turn of the year, and I have recently added some in the Allianz fund in the same field which @Rob7Lee mentioned.
Just checked Coinbase to see how my £500 'toe in the water' purchase of a bit of a bitcoin and some Ethereum was doing. Shocked to see now worth a mere £145.00! Glad I didn't 'invest' thousands. What's going on!?
This one is for actual savings and actual investments. Not highly speculative imaginary stuff about which there were plenty of warnings. But what's going on is that people are gradually realising they've fallen for a giant con.
In this picture, you are the Native Americans acquiring trinkets. The people that are selling this stuff are the Dutch acquiring New Amsterdam. Oooh, look at the pretty trade beads! (Were trade beads the first crypto I wonder?)
Oh to have some of those original native American trinkets now - they are probably worth a fortune. In the real world did win £75 on the premium bonds this month! Thanks for the link to the other thread - but none the wiser as to why they have dropped so much. As I said, a small investment - I know some people who transferred large sums of their life savings chasing smoke and mirrors...
Markets in hefty correction territory now. FTSE 100 at 6763, lowest for 2 years.
Thoughts?
Where to start...an inversion of the yield curve (between 3 and 5 years happened last week) and the spread between 2 and 10 year yields have narrowed. You normally expect yield curves to slope upward, as you would want a higher return the longer you invest for.
Yield inversions have tended to precede a recession. In the past, these have followed a few months to two years later.
Add to that, the boost to markets from the 3 month hold on tariff increases between US/China lasted about a day. Canada have now arrested the CFO of Huawei and the US want her extradited. Oh, and global growth has slowed.
And all that before we even mentioned the "B" word!
Markets in hefty correction territory now. FTSE 100 at 6763, lowest for 2 years.
Thoughts?
Where to start...an inversion of the yield curve (between 3 and 5 years happened last week) and the spread between 2 and 10 year yields have narrowed. You normally expect yield curves to slope upward, as you would want a higher return the longer you invest for.
Yield inversions have tended to precede a recession. In the past, these have followed a few months to two years later.
Add to that, the boost to markets from the 3 month hold on tariff increases between US/China lasted about a day. Canada have now arrested the CFO of Huawei and the US want her extradited. Oh, and global growth has slowed.
And all that before we even mentioned the "B" word!
I'm as annoyed about Saturday's team selection as you are but I'm not sure we can blame Bowyer for the fall in global stock markets too.
I cashed a lot of my SIPP and ISA’s over the past 4 weeks. I’ll leave it for another day then probably start buying the funds again and 5%+ off!
What made you do that? You saw this coming?
Mind you, when you say you'll buy back in.. and you may remember this.. it happened that by accident I cashed in my SIPP just before Brexit as I was saying goodbye to my IFA and switching to H-L. So I was in cash when the Brexit bounce first hit... seem to recall FTSE100 was about 6300 and I am still about 40% in cash waiting for the bubble to burst. I suppose on balance that might turn out to be good news.
Going to go away and try to read up about this yield curve now. Looks way above my pay grade so I may come back and beg @TelMc32 to write up the Numpty's guide to the yield curve :-)
I’d planned for a while to reduce down over Nov/Dec/Jan to take profit. Was intending to hold 2/3rds in cash until after Brexit. Had sold about 25%. I’ll see how it settles tomorrow & Monday, if it drops below 6550 I’m definitely back in!
Financial markets are signalling the American economy could plunge into recession within a year, top investors have warned, fuelling anxiety that the decade-long bull run in share prices is coming to an end.
A closely watched measure of the bond markets that has predicted every downturn for the past four decades — and delivered few false alarms — played a key role in last week’s stock market turmoil. Shares tumbled around the world amid rising trade tensions between America and China. However, developments in US bond markets are more worrying, according to big investors.
“This is a big deal,” said Jim Leaviss, head of retail fixed interest at the fund manager M&G Investments, adding that a continuation of recent moves would suggest “a [US] recession within the next year to 18 months”.
Last week the yield on five-year US government bonds fell below that on shorter-dated debt — a so-called inverted yield curve, which has not occurred for more than a decade. Longer-dated bonds typically offer a higher yield. Investors track such moves because they give clues about the direction of growth and inflation.
“This has proved a very reliable yardstick for a significant downturn in the past, and we think it will do again,” said David Page, a senior economist at Axa Investment Managers.
The American economy has grown strongly, helped by President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. That has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, and it is expected to do so again this month. Higher short-term interest rates increase the yield on short-term government debt.
However, longer-term yields have fallen, a sign that markets expect growth to weaken further.
“Trump’s fiscal stimulus is fading away and you have growing trade tensions,” said Leaviss. “There’s a sense of weakness ahead.” He will be watching to see whether the inversion extends to 10-year US yields falling below two-year yields.
The crunch vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal has the potential to shake up the financial markets still further.
Investors widely expect the prime minister to lose the vote on Tuesday, so the pound is likely to fall sharply only if her Commons defeat is heavier than expected.
“There’s very little expectation that the vote will get passed, so failure is largely in the price already,” said Leaviss.
The possibility of a US recession is worrying news for stock markets outside America, which have risen steadily since the financial crisis. Moves on Wall Street — by far the biggest equity market — usually spread around the globe. Last week’s selling pushed the FTSE 100 index to its lowest level for two years. America’s S&P 500 lost 4.6% during the week.
“We are pretty much at the top of the market — it’s just a question of timing,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “Quite a few people believe we may have seen the top already.”
Only the fear of missing out on a final rally is preventing many investors from selling up, according to Paolini. “You have to be careful — selling six months before the peak can be just as painful as selling six months after,” he said.
What is the yield curve? Typically, it is cheapest for a government to borrow for the shortest period possible. Investors demand higher interest rates for longer periods.
So if you plot yields, or interest rates, on debt ranging from short-term rates (set by the central bank) to 30-year bonds, you get an upward-sloping curve.
When longer-dated yields fall below those on short-term debt, the curve is “inverted”.
This is relatively rare and tells us that investors think an economic slowdown is on the way.
The US is at least 2 years away from a recession. China's economy is slowing.....but still growing at over 5% pa. Bond markets are not the place to be.
Analysts have all agreed for many months that the US is overvalued based on froth generated deliberately by Trump, and fundamental data does not support further short/medium term growth prospect. Long term investors will have made tactical reductions in the US weighting of their portfolios to obtain better short term value elsewhere, but strategically will stay invested in the US to a significant extent.
But, justified by high employment rates, and business activity, a sudden US crash has not been thought possible - by most. A trade war, if it causes unemployment means a recession becomes a possibility, and market sentiment changes overnight.
The fact is, that crashes are never predicted, only "corrections" and crashes are always prompted by a significant negative event not previously priced in. Market pricing generally reflects where the economy is expected to be over 12 months ahead. So anything which happens to disrupt the predictions and create uncertainty rather than an adjustment based on facts, will prompt a sell off by short term investors who are waiting for a sell sign anyway.
The US/China dispute has spooked the the short term investors who all move out at the same time on getting a deafening sell signal.
Whether the US equity market corrects overnight or over 5 years does not affect long term returns, it affects workers' lives who suffer the impact of boom and bust.
The fact is that cheap money allowing debt to be a viable means of financing equity investment means equities have not priced in the risk associated with the yields. At the same time, QE and low interest rates has meant bonds have been overpriced against the very low yields they have provided. At some point, equilibrium in the price of relative risk between equities and bond must occur, it's simply a matter of whether it's overnight or gradual. Until now the sentiment has been for a gradual adjustment.
Just checked Coinbase to see how my £500 'toe in the water' purchase of a bit of a bitcoin and some Ethereum was doing. Shocked to see now worth a mere £145.00! Glad I didn't 'invest' thousands. What's going on!?
Price gone down, the pyramid is collapsing!!
Other than that, no idea!!
this is nowhere near the worst crash in bitcoin's history, far from it.
Me, I'm mainly in cash as it is, more by luck than design, and have some small regular monthly automatic buys of (mainly defensive) funds set up. I'm basically expecting further falls, especially as a daft hard Brexit looks likely.
Meanwhile, I'm currently happy that I put some of my cash to good use in P2P. I keep a close eye out for any signs of rising defaults, but so far I have seen no reason to get out.
Me, I'm mainly in cash as it is, more by luck than design, and have some small regular monthly automatic buys of (mainly defensive) funds set up. I'm basically expecting further falls, especially as a daft hard Brexit looks likely.
Meanwhile, I'm currently happy that I put some of my cash to good use in P2P. I keep a close eye out for any signs of rising defaults, but so far I have seen no reason to get out.
The ‘Big Short’ was on BBC2 over the weekend. A timely reminder of what is in store over the next few years. What with Moggie, Banks and their hedge fund mates looking to crash the market. So I have just invested in a few more Premium Bonds.
Me, I'm mainly in cash as it is, more by luck than design, and have some small regular monthly automatic buys of (mainly defensive) funds set up. I'm basically expecting further falls, especially as a daft hard Brexit looks likely.
Meanwhile, I'm currently happy that I put some of my cash to good use in P2P. I keep a close eye out for any signs of rising defaults, but so far I have seen no reason to get out.
Me, I'm mainly in cash as it is, more by luck than design, and have some small regular monthly automatic buys of (mainly defensive) funds set up. I'm basically expecting further falls, especially as a daft hard Brexit looks likely.
Meanwhile, I'm currently happy that I put some of my cash to good use in P2P. I keep a close eye out for any signs of rising defaults, but so far I have seen no reason to get out.
As always, two many eggs in one basket is not a good thing.
I've kept a lot of my international/US funds which have done really well but cashed out a lot of UK one's and the few UK company shares I had, only Vodafone left now. I'll sit on that cash for a while and buy a few more watches maybe.
If you have any monthly payments like a S&S ISA I'd leave them running, over the longer term you'll be fine rather than trying to guess the top and bottom.
FTSE still has a way to drop I feel, I'm not back in until 6500/6550.
5 years fixed in the bank is reasonable, but hardly great at 2.7%. If you've got young adult children/grandchildren/nieces/nephews get them to Open a LISA if they are thinking of entering the property market in the next 5 years, easy 25% profit straight away.
I'm pretty much out of P2P, could be painful if we do hit the buffers and lots of job losses.
Bored now of premium bonds, after a cracking start to the year I was looking at 5% plus return...... be lucky to hit 1% the way the last few months have been.
I've got a good chart showing the amount you could "lose" by being out of the market when it then goes back up again. Not even a seasoned professional/fund manager can time the market perfectly. Best advice is to sit tight & do nothing.....keep your investments where they are & wait for the market to recover.
Me, I'm mainly in cash as it is, more by luck than design, and have some small regular monthly automatic buys of (mainly defensive) funds set up. I'm basically expecting further falls, especially as a daft hard Brexit looks likely.
Meanwhile, I'm currently happy that I put some of my cash to good use in P2P. I keep a close eye out for any signs of rising defaults, but so far I have seen no reason to get out.
Cash is king at the moment (in my layman's view).
But in which currency?
God knows.
Probably sterling - some sort of deal will be done that will strengthen the pound. Maybe a little hedge on Euros incase we crash out.
I've got a good chart showing the amount you could "lose" by being out of the market when it then goes back up again. Not even a seasoned professional/fund manager can time the market perfectly. Best advice is to sit tight & do nothing.....keep your investments where they are & wait for the market to recover.
Have you got a chart on what I would have lost had I not sold what I did some weeks back?
Appreciate its your profession but not sure I totally agree. Surely part of it is how much you’ve already made when you do sell?
I haven’t had the time for a few years, but used to trade on a regular basis. Would set a target profit (7.5-10%) and sell as soon as it reached that (was automatic). Sure many times had I held for longer could have made more, but other times would have lost profit and sometimes capital.
I agree with you about the risk to P2P, but don't you think that one has about 3-6 months warning of that kind of general scenario?
As for your Premium Bonds, Ernie will always get you back down to 1.4% like the rest of us :-) Still as good as the best you can get from a bank for easy access. Still not enough to beat UK inflation...
I agree with you about the risk to P2P, but don't you think that one has about 3-6 months warning of that kind of general scenario?
As for your Premium Bonds, Ernie will always get you back down to 1.4% like the rest of us :-) Still as good as the best you can get from a bank for easy access. Still not enough to beat UK inflation...
Goldman Sachs 1.5% instant access - Investec 1.5% instant access and 1.85% 95 day notice. None much better than that.
I agree with you about the risk to P2P, but don't you think that one has about 3-6 months warning of that kind of general scenario?
As for your Premium Bonds, Ernie will always get you back down to 1.4% like the rest of us :-) Still as good as the best you can get from a bank for easy access. Still not enough to beat UK inflation...
Goldman Sachs 1.5% instant access - Investec 1.5% instant access and 1.85% 95 day notice. None much better than that.
I've put some money in Goldman (Marcus). Held my nose doing it. Will have to look at Investec, I had not heard of it. The Goldman one is 1.35+ 0.15% bonus.
I agree with you about the risk to P2P, but don't you think that one has about 3-6 months warning of that kind of general scenario?
As for your Premium Bonds, Ernie will always get you back down to 1.4% like the rest of us :-) Still as good as the best you can get from a bank for easy access. Still not enough to beat UK inflation...
Can you sell your P2P quickly though? All depends how much you have in there, but there is greater danger coming I feel.
Can get a fixed for 12 months just over 2% with Atom or the ones Bob has mentioned for instant access or shorter periods. I need to net those rates down though so not very good! Hence premium bonds aren’t awful, just a monthly disappointment when I open the App.
Oh for the days of 8% savings interest!!
If I cut my days next year (and salary :-( ) I might start paying into pension again for a while as will be tax efficient again if I can avoid the loss of personal allowance.
I agree with you about the risk to P2P, but don't you think that one has about 3-6 months warning of that kind of general scenario?
As for your Premium Bonds, Ernie will always get you back down to 1.4% like the rest of us :-) Still as good as the best you can get from a bank for easy access. Still not enough to beat UK inflation...
Can you sell your P2P quickly though? All depends how much you have in there, but there is greater danger coming I feel.
Can get a fixed for 12 months just over 2% with Atom or the ones Bob has mentioned for instant access or shorter periods. I need to net those rates down though so not very good! Hence premium bonds aren’t awful, just a monthly disappointment when I open the App.
Oh for the days of 8% savings interest!!
If I cut my days next year (and salary :-( ) I might start paying into pension again for a while as will be tax efficient again if I can avoid the loss of personal allowance.
Comments
Other than that, no idea!!
This one is for actual savings and actual investments. Not highly speculative imaginary stuff about which there were plenty of warnings. But what's going on is that people are gradually realising they've fallen for a giant con.
In this picture, you are the Native Americans acquiring trinkets. The people that are selling this stuff are the Dutch acquiring New Amsterdam. Oooh, look at the pretty trade beads! (Were trade beads the first crypto I wonder?)
Thanks for the link to the other thread - but none the wiser as to why they have dropped so much. As I said, a small investment - I know some people who transferred large sums of their life savings chasing smoke and mirrors...
Thoughts?
Yield inversions have tended to precede a recession. In the past, these have followed a few months to two years later.
Add to that, the boost to markets from the 3 month hold on tariff increases between US/China lasted about a day. Canada have now arrested the CFO of Huawei and the US want her extradited. Oh, and global growth has slowed.
And all that before we even mentioned the "B" word!
Mind you, when you say you'll buy back in.. and you may remember this.. it happened that by accident I cashed in my SIPP just before Brexit as I was saying goodbye to my IFA and switching to H-L. So I was in cash when the Brexit bounce first hit... seem to recall FTSE100 was about 6300 and I am still about 40% in cash waiting for the bubble to burst. I suppose on balance that might turn out to be good news.
Going to go away and try to read up about this yield curve now. Looks way above my pay grade so I may come back and beg @TelMc32 to write up the Numpty's guide to the yield curve :-)
I’d planned for a while to reduce down over Nov/Dec/Jan to take profit. Was intending to hold 2/3rds in cash until after Brexit. Had sold about 25%. I’ll see how it settles tomorrow & Monday, if it drops below 6550 I’m definitely back in!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/bond-markets-signal-end-of-bull-run-for-shares-6gtcqlm0w
Financial markets are signalling the American economy could plunge into recession within a year, top investors have warned, fuelling anxiety that the decade-long bull run in share prices is coming to an end.
A closely watched measure of the bond markets that has predicted every downturn for the past four decades — and delivered few false alarms — played a key role in last week’s stock market turmoil. Shares tumbled around the world amid rising trade tensions between America and China. However, developments in US bond markets are more worrying, according to big investors.
“This is a big deal,” said Jim Leaviss, head of retail fixed interest at the fund manager M&G Investments, adding that a continuation of recent moves would suggest “a [US] recession within the next year to 18 months”.
Last week the yield on five-year US government bonds fell below that on shorter-dated debt — a so-called inverted yield curve, which has not occurred for more than a decade. Longer-dated bonds typically offer a higher yield. Investors track such moves because they give clues about the direction of growth and inflation.
“This has proved a very reliable yardstick for a significant downturn in the past, and we think it will do again,” said David Page, a senior economist at Axa Investment Managers.
The American economy has grown strongly, helped by President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. That has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, and it is expected to do so again this month. Higher short-term interest rates increase the yield on short-term government debt.
However, longer-term yields have fallen, a sign that markets expect growth to weaken further.
“Trump’s fiscal stimulus is fading away and you have growing trade tensions,” said Leaviss. “There’s a sense of weakness ahead.” He will be watching to see whether the inversion extends to 10-year US yields falling below two-year yields.
The crunch vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal has the potential to shake up the financial markets still further.
Investors widely expect the prime minister to lose the vote on Tuesday, so the pound is likely to fall sharply only if her Commons defeat is heavier than expected.
“There’s very little expectation that the vote will get passed, so failure is largely in the price already,” said Leaviss.
The possibility of a US recession is worrying news for stock markets outside America, which have risen steadily since the financial crisis. Moves on Wall Street — by far the biggest equity market — usually spread around the globe. Last week’s selling pushed the FTSE 100 index to its lowest level for two years. America’s S&P 500 lost 4.6% during the week.
“We are pretty much at the top of the market — it’s just a question of timing,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “Quite a few people believe we may have seen the top already.”
Only the fear of missing out on a final rally is preventing many investors from selling up, according to Paolini. “You have to be careful — selling six months before the peak can be just as painful as selling six months after,” he said.
What is the yield curve?
Typically, it is cheapest for a government to borrow for the shortest period possible. Investors demand higher interest rates for longer periods.
So if you plot yields, or interest rates, on debt ranging from short-term rates (set by the central bank) to 30-year bonds, you get an upward-sloping curve.
When longer-dated yields fall below those on short-term debt, the curve is “inverted”.
This is relatively rare and tells us that investors think an economic slowdown is on the way.
But, justified by high employment rates, and business activity, a sudden US crash has not been thought possible - by most. A trade war, if it causes unemployment means a recession becomes a possibility, and market sentiment changes overnight.
The fact is, that crashes are never predicted, only "corrections" and crashes are always prompted by a significant negative event not previously priced in. Market pricing generally reflects where the economy is expected to be over 12 months ahead. So anything which happens to disrupt the predictions and create uncertainty rather than an adjustment based on facts, will prompt a sell off by short term investors who are waiting for a sell sign anyway.
The US/China dispute has spooked the the short term investors who all move out at the same time on getting a deafening sell signal.
Whether the US equity market corrects overnight or over 5 years does not affect long term returns, it affects workers' lives who suffer the impact of boom and bust.
The fact is that cheap money allowing debt to be a viable means of financing equity investment means equities have not priced in the risk associated with the yields. At the same time, QE and low interest rates has meant bonds have been overpriced against the very low yields they have provided. At some point, equilibrium in the price of relative risk between equities and bond must occur, it's simply a matter of whether it's overnight or gradual. Until now the sentiment has been for a gradual adjustment.
Me, I'm mainly in cash as it is, more by luck than design, and have some small regular monthly automatic buys of (mainly defensive) funds set up. I'm basically expecting further falls, especially as a
dafthard Brexit looks likely.Meanwhile, I'm currently happy that I put some of my cash to good use in P2P. I keep a close eye out for any signs of rising defaults, but so far I have seen no reason to get out.
I've kept a lot of my international/US funds which have done really well but cashed out a lot of UK one's and the few UK company shares I had, only Vodafone left now. I'll sit on that cash for a while and buy a few more watches maybe.
If you have any monthly payments like a S&S ISA I'd leave them running, over the longer term you'll be fine rather than trying to guess the top and bottom.
FTSE still has a way to drop I feel, I'm not back in until 6500/6550.
5 years fixed in the bank is reasonable, but hardly great at 2.7%. If you've got young adult children/grandchildren/nieces/nephews get them to Open a LISA if they are thinking of entering the property market in the next 5 years, easy 25% profit straight away.
I'm pretty much out of P2P, could be painful if we do hit the buffers and lots of job losses.
Bored now of premium bonds, after a cracking start to the year I was looking at 5% plus return...... be lucky to hit 1% the way the last few months have been.
Probably sterling - some sort of deal will be done that will strengthen the pound. Maybe a little hedge on Euros incase we crash out.
Appreciate its your profession but not sure I totally agree. Surely part of it is how much you’ve already made when you do sell?
I haven’t had the time for a few years, but used to trade on a regular basis. Would set a target profit (7.5-10%) and sell as soon as it reached that (was automatic). Sure many times had I held for longer could have made more, but other times would have lost profit and sometimes capital.
That said not sure I’d be selling now!!
I agree with you about the risk to P2P, but don't you think that one has about 3-6 months warning of that kind of general scenario?
As for your Premium Bonds, Ernie will always get you back down to 1.4% like the rest of us :-) Still as good as the best you can get from a bank for easy access. Still not enough to beat UK inflation...
Can get a fixed for 12 months just over 2% with Atom or the ones Bob has mentioned for instant access or shorter periods. I need to net those rates down though so not very good! Hence premium bonds aren’t awful, just a monthly disappointment when I open the App.
Oh for the days of 8% savings interest!!
If I cut my days next year (and salary :-( ) I might start paying into pension again for a while as will be tax efficient again if I can avoid the loss of personal allowance.