I don't think you are likely to see 1 year fixes increase in line with the base rate moving TBH.
The longer fixes will be interesting as a not a lot in a 2 year v 5 year fix with a lot of places, indicating they've already priced in a certain amount of increase in the up to 2 year fix.
Today will be interesting, many predicting a 0.5-0.75 increase. Some people with mortgage fixes coming to an end are going to be in a whole lot of pain. Here comes the crash!!
Are you suggesting a house price crash?
Depends on definition of crash. I believe actual sale prices will reduce over the coming 2-3 years (unless the government make significant changes). I don't think it will be huge, but there are already signs of sales struggling. On rightmove in and around my area just about every other house is showing as 'reduced' but may be currently they were pushing for unrealistic prices.
0.5% increase on the base rate. Let's see what happens to savings interest (probably very little).
After todays announcement Saga have just increased mine from 1.4% to 1.55%. So only passing on 0.15% of the 0.5% rise. I had already started withdrawing my money from them and moving to Gateway Bank which was offering 2% before todays rise.
0.5% increase on the base rate. Let's see what happens to savings interest (probably very little).
After todays announcement Saga have just increased mine from 1.4% to 1.55%. So only passing on 0.15% of the 0.5% rise. I had already started withdrawing my money from them and moving to Gateway Bank which was offering 2% before todays rise.
Don't forget that account has a bonus of .25% to add to the 1.55% so you should be getting 1.8% on it.
But agree there are other better options out there.
Decent reduction in Stamp duty and 1p off the base rate from April, surprised the removal of the top rate though.
Markets don't like it. FTSE100 down 1.75% to 7035. Might be time to put up our considered thinking guesses for the end of the year. I think I had around 7050
Decent reduction in Stamp duty and 1p off the base rate from April, surprised the removal of the top rate though.
Markets don't like it. FTSE100 down 1.75% to 7035. Might be time to put up our considered thinking guesses for the end of the year. I think I had around 7050
Yes as at now you are top of the league! But a long way to go
The markets don't like long-term thinking, they like quick results. They've got used to handouts too.
They'll spend the next couple of days sorting out the winners and losers from this. I hedged most of this fall but I'm feeding back in now - for a short while, at least. Long way to go in this bear market.
Some crazy moves in SONIA curve. Dec-23 rates and beyond up 70bps+. And cable getting buried, market really doesn't like what they've announced
Implied one year yields of 5.37% in Jun 23. I think today was a capitulation of any stale longs plus the new info ingested into the curve. 1yr vs 3mth curve implied as 5bps inverted in June next year as opposed to 153bps steep out of this September. Strap yourselves in!
Some crazy moves in SONIA curve. Dec-23 rates and beyond up 70bps+. And cable getting buried, market really doesn't like what they've announced
Implied one year yields of 5.37% in Jun 23. I think today was a capitulation of any stale longs plus the new info ingested into the curve. 1yr vs 3mth curve implied as 5bps inverted in June next year as opposed to 153bps steep out of this September. Strap yourselves in!
I can't be the only one who has no idea what any of this means?
Some crazy moves in SONIA curve. Dec-23 rates and beyond up 70bps+. And cable getting buried, market really doesn't like what they've announced
Implied one year yields of 5.37% in Jun 23. I think today was a capitulation of any stale longs plus the new info ingested into the curve. 1yr vs 3mth curve implied as 5bps inverted in June next year as opposed to 153bps steep out of this September. Strap yourselves in!
I can't be the only one who has no idea what any of this means?
Basically, it's the interest rate futures market saying that rates are likely to go up steeply until mid-year 2023 then start to fall, presumably as recession starts to bite. All in all, it's not a pretty picture, but of course markets have been wrong many times!
I don't think you are likely to see 1 year fixes increase in line with the base rate moving TBH.
The longer fixes will be interesting as a not a lot in a 2 year v 5 year fix with a lot of places, indicating they've already priced in a certain amount of increase in the up to 2 year fix.
Today will be interesting, many predicting a 0.5-0.75 increase. Some people with mortgage fixes coming to an end are going to be in a whole lot of pain. Here comes the crash!!
Mortgage fixed rates are interesting at the moment. Shorter 2 & 3 year ones are startimg to get more expensive than the longer 5 year ones, which has never been the case in the past.
does this mean mortgage companies/banks are expecting interest rates to go back down in 5 years?
Look at the SWAP market and that is exactly what the curve suggests. Rates peak next year then come back is general consensus. 2yr SWAP nearly 5% today, 5yr at 4.5%.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
Good decision or bad?
Never a bad thing to take profits. Whether now is the time to cash in & sit on the sidelines no-one can answer.
Comments
But agree there are other better options out there.
Decent reduction in Stamp duty and 1p off the base rate from April, surprised the removal of the top rate though.
They'll spend the next couple of days sorting out the winners and losers from this. I hedged most of this fall but I'm feeding back in now - for a short while, at least. Long way to go in this bear market.
I didn’t know we had a hi-fi thread on CL😉
But seriously, please explain for the rest of us, I am sure it is interesting.
Look at the SWAP market and that is exactly what the curve suggests. Rates peak next year then come back is general consensus. 2yr SWAP nearly 5% today, 5yr at 4.5%.
Good decision or bad?