The markets don't like long-term thinking, they like quick results. They've got used to handouts too.
They'll spend the next couple of days sorting out the winners and losers from this. I hedged most of this fall but I'm feeding back in now - for a short while, at least. Long way to go in this bear market.
Some crazy moves in SONIA curve. Dec-23 rates and beyond up 70bps+. And cable getting buried, market really doesn't like what they've announced
Implied one year yields of 5.37% in Jun 23. I think today was a capitulation of any stale longs plus the new info ingested into the curve. 1yr vs 3mth curve implied as 5bps inverted in June next year as opposed to 153bps steep out of this September. Strap yourselves in!
Some crazy moves in SONIA curve. Dec-23 rates and beyond up 70bps+. And cable getting buried, market really doesn't like what they've announced
Implied one year yields of 5.37% in Jun 23. I think today was a capitulation of any stale longs plus the new info ingested into the curve. 1yr vs 3mth curve implied as 5bps inverted in June next year as opposed to 153bps steep out of this September. Strap yourselves in!
I can't be the only one who has no idea what any of this means?
Some crazy moves in SONIA curve. Dec-23 rates and beyond up 70bps+. And cable getting buried, market really doesn't like what they've announced
Implied one year yields of 5.37% in Jun 23. I think today was a capitulation of any stale longs plus the new info ingested into the curve. 1yr vs 3mth curve implied as 5bps inverted in June next year as opposed to 153bps steep out of this September. Strap yourselves in!
I can't be the only one who has no idea what any of this means?
Basically, it's the interest rate futures market saying that rates are likely to go up steeply until mid-year 2023 then start to fall, presumably as recession starts to bite. All in all, it's not a pretty picture, but of course markets have been wrong many times!
I don't think you are likely to see 1 year fixes increase in line with the base rate moving TBH.
The longer fixes will be interesting as a not a lot in a 2 year v 5 year fix with a lot of places, indicating they've already priced in a certain amount of increase in the up to 2 year fix.
Today will be interesting, many predicting a 0.5-0.75 increase. Some people with mortgage fixes coming to an end are going to be in a whole lot of pain. Here comes the crash!!
Mortgage fixed rates are interesting at the moment. Shorter 2 & 3 year ones are startimg to get more expensive than the longer 5 year ones, which has never been the case in the past.
does this mean mortgage companies/banks are expecting interest rates to go back down in 5 years?
Look at the SWAP market and that is exactly what the curve suggests. Rates peak next year then come back is general consensus. 2yr SWAP nearly 5% today, 5yr at 4.5%.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
Good decision or bad?
Never a bad thing to take profits. Whether now is the time to cash in & sit on the sidelines no-one can answer.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
Good decision or bad?
Never a bad thing to take profits. Whether now is the time to cash in & sit on the sidelines no-one can answer.
He's just made a bit more, assuming he didn't sell last week.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
Good decision or bad?
The big question is what would you do with the money in the meantime. Keep in cash? invest in UK or Europe equities? And when would you go back in. Always a danger of missing a stock market pickup if you're out of the market. I personally never try and time markets but certainly a case here.
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
Good decision or bad?
The big question is what would you do with the money in the meantime. Keep in cash? invest in UK or Europe equities? And when would you go back in. Always a danger of missing a stock market pickup if you're out of the market. I personally never try and time markets but certainly a case here.
Very true.
I'm putting into the GBP section of my account, ready to invest in GBP equities when the time is right. Not just yet, unless anyone has some great tips!
I have a fair amount of money in USD stocks and ISAs. Just about to sell most of them. Although the values have gone down, with the GBP/USD ROE, I've actually made a profit in sterling. Time to take some of this currency profit and maybe reinvest when markets are more stable.
Good decision or bad?
The big question is what would you do with the money in the meantime. Keep in cash? invest in UK or Europe equities? And when would you go back in. Always a danger of missing a stock market pickup if you're out of the market. I personally never try and time markets but certainly a case here.
Very true.
I'm putting into the GBP section of my account, ready to invest in GBP equities when the time is right. Not just yet, unless anyone has some great tips!
Actually totally changed my mind when I went into the account and for now it'll go into a UK savings account when it arrives. Just done the transaction. I have enough GBP in equity markets already!
Meeting my pension advisor in person for the first time tomorrow, having started with them 15 months ago. Investment is down 8.58% since opening on 30 June 2021, so I’ll be ordering some very nice wine with the lunch that she’s paying for!! 😉
Meeting my pension advisor in person for the first time tomorrow, having started with them 15 months ago. Investment is down 8.58% since opening on 30 June 2021, so I’ll be ordering some very nice wine with the lunch that she’s paying for!! 😉
That's not a bad performance all things considered!
Meeting my pension advisor in person for the first time tomorrow, having started with them 15 months ago. Investment is down 8.58% since opening on 30 June 2021, so I’ll be ordering some very nice wine with the lunch that she’s paying for!! 😉
Mine's down 12.5%. It peaked at down 7% on the day I had my Zoom review. You couldn't script it.
Meeting my pension advisor in person for the first time tomorrow, having started with them 15 months ago. Investment is down 8.58% since opening on 30 June 2021, so I’ll be ordering some very nice wine with the lunch that she’s paying for!! 😉
That's not a bad performance all things considered!
Yeah, I know. There will always be times like this over a long-term investment. It’s just timing that means it’s happened at the start for me (and CE too). Fees aren’t exactly cheap and I’ve a few questions about recent strategy changes - 15 out of 20 investments (includes 24% in various bonds across globe) down, but I’ve had one change to a UK equity fund recommendation while no commentary on why others performing worse should stay. Will see what they say tomorrow.
Not quite in the realms of Black Wednesday (which spookily enough is just 10 days past the 30th anniversary) but the panic in the markets over Sterling has had major repercussions for those looking for a mortgage/remortgage. 2 big lenders today (Halifax and Virgin) have pulled ALL their products to new customers due to re-pricing issues and have said that they hope to be able to offer new products later in the week.
Heard it said that the BOE might have to raise the base rate to 3.75% this week and see it go to 5%+ by the end of the year. Strange that the Governor of the BOE said earlier that a special sitting of the Rate Committee that was going to meet today was cancelled & the next interest rate review is not scheduled until November.
Somehow I think the markets will have other ideas & may well force their hand sooner rather than later.
Not quite in the realms of Black Wednesday (which spookily enough is just 10 days past the 30th anniversary) but the panic in the markets over Sterling has had major repercussions for those looking for a mortgage/remortgage. 2 big lenders today (Halifax and Virgin) have pulled ALL their products to new customers due to re-pricing issues and have said that they hope to be able to offer new products later in the week.
Heard it said that the BOE might have to raise the base rate to 3.75% this week and see it go to 5%+ by the end of the year. Strange that the Governor of the BOE said earlier that a special sitting of the Rate Committee that was going to meet today was cancelled & the next interest rate review is not scheduled until November.
Somehow I think the markets will have other ideas & may well force their hand sooner rather than later.
Agree, I can't seem them holding out for a month.
The markets seem to be pricing in at least 6% for next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see an emergency meeting and rates go to the 3.5% area and then up again in November. How high will in part depend on how the previous increases go.
Will be interesting to see how savings rates move if there are substantial base rate increases.
My pension is holding up so far, mostly due to a large US proportion, but some funds still look a bit painful!
Not quite in the realms of Black Wednesday (which spookily enough is just 10 days past the 30th anniversary) but the panic in the markets over Sterling has had major repercussions for those looking for a mortgage/remortgage. 2 big lenders today (Halifax and Virgin) have pulled ALL their products to new customers due to re-pricing issues and have said that they hope to be able to offer new products later in the week.
Heard it said that the BOE might have to raise the base rate to 3.75% this week and see it go to 5%+ by the end of the year. Strange that the Governor of the BOE said earlier that a special sitting of the Rate Committee that was going to meet today was cancelled & the next interest rate review is not scheduled until November.
Somehow I think the markets will have other ideas & may well force their hand sooner rather than later.
Agree, I can't seem them holding out for a month.
The markets seem to be pricing in at least 6% for next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see an emergency meeting and rates go to the 3.5% area and then up again in November. How high will in part depend on how the previous increases go.
Will be interesting to see how savings rates move if there are substantial base rate increases.
My pension is holding up so far, mostly due to a large US proportion, but some funds still look a bit painful!
Those mortgage lenders pulling lending and the 6% rates are because the PRA issued a set of new stress tests around lunchtime yesterday for the banger banks with scenarios like 30% or so fall in residential property prices, 40% or so on commercial property, base rate around 6% iI think and a few other scenarios. The PRA didn’t say these scenarios will happen, only that banks had to stress their books. I’m surprised they all didn’t pull their lending just to make sure they could cope with the test scenarios.
Not quite in the realms of Black Wednesday (which spookily enough is just 10 days past the 30th anniversary) but the panic in the markets over Sterling has had major repercussions for those looking for a mortgage/remortgage. 2 big lenders today (Halifax and Virgin) have pulled ALL their products to new customers due to re-pricing issues and have said that they hope to be able to offer new products later in the week.
Heard it said that the BOE might have to raise the base rate to 3.75% this week and see it go to 5%+ by the end of the year. Strange that the Governor of the BOE said earlier that a special sitting of the Rate Committee that was going to meet today was cancelled & the next interest rate review is not scheduled until November.
Somehow I think the markets will have other ideas & may well force their hand sooner rather than later.
Agree, I can't seem them holding out for a month.
The markets seem to be pricing in at least 6% for next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see an emergency meeting and rates go to the 3.5% area and then up again in November. How high will in part depend on how the previous increases go.
Will be interesting to see how savings rates move if there are substantial base rate increases.
My pension is holding up so far, mostly due to a large US proportion, but some funds still look a bit painful!
Those mortgage lenders pulling lending and the 6% rates are because the PRA issued a set of new stress tests around lunchtime yesterday for the banger banks with scenarios like 30% or so fall in residential property prices, 40% or so on commercial property, base rate around 6% iI think and a few other scenarios. The PRA didn’t say these scenarios will happen, only that banks had to stress their books. I’m surprised they all didn’t pull their lending just to make sure they could cope with the test scenarios.
Most seem to have pulled anything with 10% or less deposit/equity.
Meeting my pension advisor in person for the first time tomorrow, having started with them 15 months ago. Investment is down 8.58% since opening on 30 June 2021, so I’ll be ordering some very nice wine with the lunch that she’s paying for!! 😉
A further drop to 9.29% down today…I hope she’s got a good limit on her credit card!!! 🤦🏻♂️
Comments
They'll spend the next couple of days sorting out the winners and losers from this. I hedged most of this fall but I'm feeding back in now - for a short while, at least. Long way to go in this bear market.
I didn’t know we had a hi-fi thread on CL😉
But seriously, please explain for the rest of us, I am sure it is interesting.
Look at the SWAP market and that is exactly what the curve suggests. Rates peak next year then come back is general consensus. 2yr SWAP nearly 5% today, 5yr at 4.5%.
Good decision or bad?
Still my S&P 500 is looking great
I'm putting into the GBP section of my account, ready to invest in GBP equities when the time is right. Not just yet, unless anyone has some great tips!
It peaked at down 7% on the day I had my Zoom review.
You couldn't script it.
Heard it said that the BOE might have to raise the base rate to 3.75% this week and see it go to 5%+ by the end of the year. Strange that the Governor of the BOE said earlier that a special sitting of the Rate Committee that was going to meet today was cancelled & the next interest rate review is not scheduled until November.
Somehow I think the markets will have other ideas & may well force their hand sooner rather than later.
The markets seem to be pricing in at least 6% for next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see an emergency meeting and rates go to the 3.5% area and then up again in November. How high will in part depend on how the previous increases go.
Will be interesting to see how savings rates move if there are substantial base rate increases.
My pension is holding up so far, mostly due to a large US proportion, but some funds still look a bit painful!