A very muted response to @LargeAddick victory but I'll say well done!
Might even seek from advice from you! What's your go to fund for the next 6 months! :-) 😂
As regards the top 8 (ie those who finished above me) how many of you actually work in the finance industry. Just a simple yes or no - no need to give any details. (Reason I ask is just interested to know if the professionals have any more real insight into where the market is going than mug punters like me)
No, I’m just a punter. And the dialogue leading up to the first of these competitions was driven by our resident IFA who was consistently among the more bullish voices about market prospects. Its interesting that having been trounced by a lot of punters in the first two comps he was more cautious this time. Isnt this your best result so far @golfaddick ? 😉
The serious point I’m making here is that the overall results looking at all participants in all three comps have been startlingly good, and seem to be getting better if I’m not mistaken. So I am certainly up for a further competition, but I hope this time we will have a couple of weeks where people share their thoughts before laying down their “bets”. This can be a real help for those who feel less wired in to the markets, but there was not much of that before this round. I don’t think it spoils the fun, and there is no money involved, so why not?
A very muted response to @LargeAddick victory but I'll say well done!
Might even seek from advice from you! What's your go to fund for the next 6 months! :-) 😂
As regards the top 8 (ie those who finished above me) how many of you actually work in the finance industry. Just a simple yes or no - no need to give any details. (Reason I ask is just interested to know if the professionals have any more real insight into where the market is going than mug punters like me)
worked in banking for over 40 years, now work in a solicitors. Not sure if that helped in my prediction, chose 47 at the end as that's the year we won the cup !!
A very muted response to @LargeAddick victory but I'll say well done!
Might even seek from advice from you! What's your go to fund for the next 6 months! :-) 😂
As regards the top 8 (ie those who finished above me) how many of you actually work in the finance industry. Just a simple yes or no - no need to give any details. (Reason I ask is just interested to know if the professionals have any more real insight into where the market is going than mug punters like me)
worked in banking for over 40 years, now work in a solicitors. Not sure if that helped in my prediction, chose 47 at the end as that's the year we won the cup !!
Not wanting to sound bitter but as today's gains have shown the Index can be anywhere on any given day. During the past week the FTSE100 had been trading above 7100 and was looking at finishing June nearer to 7150 than 7050. Last Friday it finished at 7136, just 4 points off my "guess". And a guess it was, as no-one can really say where the Index might be in a months time, let alone 6 ! Too many variables (Inflation, interest rates, Covid lockdown 4 or 5) and thats without any political drama's such as PM's resigning or EU/NI troubles.
At this stage all I'm looking at is the country slow unlocking & businesses getting back on their feet with the vaccine programme being fully done. The FTSE100 is still around 700 points off its all time high and still 500 points off where it was pre-Covid. I would like to think the FTSE is back to around 7500 by the end of the year but its too soon to be making any final "guesses" for the next comp.
I probably got more attached to watching the ftse than I should have, especially in the last few weeks, but overall I enjoyed it! It's funny how your emotions get involved and you start wanting the markets to drop - just to gain a bit of pride on CL.
I forgot to include the axis on my screengrab but here is how much thought I put into my prediction
A very well done to LargeAddick who was less than ten points out! And to the Top 7 who managed to get within 1%. Overall most people were within 5% which is not too shabby at all.
At first sight, 7400 looks like where I would be placing my forecast. Its a modest gain of 5%. However it would also represent a gain of 15% for thr year. That is a lot in a year. What are moving the markets this year? Seems to me they are: - vaccine rollout vs Delta variant ( and possibly others); to what extent do economies, and sectors within them, recover? - lack of vaccine rollout in emerging economies - return of inflation - but possibly temporary.
- moves to curb tech companies’ power ( but FTSE 100 doesnt have much tech) - shortages of Stuff. e.g. chips for new cars, but also stuff like steel, and a whole host of building materials - Brexit related trade issues - what Biden manages to get passed, and what not.
I don't think I'll be that optimistic as it does look as though inflation might affect the markets and both Brexit and Covid are factors that may well cause a higher than usual inflation rate.
NB nothing on the premium bonds. That's two months running.
Comments
So are we all on again for end of year predictions?
At this stage all I'm looking at is the country slow unlocking & businesses getting back on their feet with the vaccine programme being fully done. The FTSE100 is still around 700 points off its all time high and still 500 points off where it was pre-Covid. I would like to think the FTSE is back to around 7500 by the end of the year but its too soon to be making any final "guesses" for the next comp.
So that pushes me up to 8th from 16th
Well played Large and everyone.
No seriously well called mate.
It's funny how your emotions get involved and you start wanting the markets to drop - just to gain a bit of pride on CL.
I forgot to include the axis on my screengrab but here is how much thought I put into my prediction
Well done @LargeAddick
My wife won 2x£25 and eldest daughter 1x £25, youngest daughter nothing.
So on £150k a grand total of £75
Might be time to do something else with mine I think.
Cheers for doing this I find it quite entertaining.
- vaccine rollout vs Delta variant ( and possibly others); to what extent do economies, and sectors within them, recover?
- lack of vaccine rollout in emerging economies
- return of inflation - but possibly temporary.
- shortages of Stuff. e.g. chips for new cars, but also stuff like steel, and a whole host of building materials
- Brexit related trade issues
- what Biden manages to get passed, and what not.
I’ll probably end up around 7400!
Pays for our tickets to Canterbury tonight....Hopefully a good omen !
EDIT; just got him to log in to his account as the months seem to trickle by and he gives me different information!
His last month without a win (he's had the maximum amount for years) was July 2018. So that's three years basically.