How Many Points ?

Brian

If we have 24 points now with 19 games left, 30 more points would take us to 54 which I reckon would mean safety. I have looked at our last 19 games to try and predict if we could get them. On my predictions it is 26 which would give us 50 which is probably too low. Maybe we will get some loans in to make us stronger but based on what we have at present below is my thoughts. Our away games look pretty horrible on the whole so i think we will mainly be relying on our home games.

Home
Barnsley 3
Bournemouth 1
Birmingham 3
QPR 0
Watford 1
Huddersfield 3
Burnley 1
Reading 0
Yeovil 3
Bolton 3
Blackburn 1

Away
Leeds 1
Leicester 0
Millwall 1
Nottm Forest 0
Derby 0
Brighton 0
Sheff Wed 3
Blackpool 1

Lincsaddick

A good analysis Brian but your estimated total is just 25 .. I think you are being too optimistic about the home and too pessimistic about the away results .. however, I am not going to attempt any forecasts, just hope and trust that your conclusion re possible/likely relegation is wrong, wrong and wrong ((:>)

micks1950

55 points needed last year, but 48 in both 2011/12 and 2010/11, 49 in 2009/10, and 51 in 2008/9 when we went down with Norwich & Southampton (we had 39)....?

paulie8290

Home
Barnsley 3
Bournemouth 3
Birmingham 3
QPR 0
Watford 1
Huddersfield 3
Burnley 0
Reading 1
Yeovil 3
Bolton 3
Blackburn 3

Away
Leeds 0
Leicester 0
Millwall 3
Nottm Forest 0
Derby 0
Brighton 1
Sheff Wed 3
Blackpool 3

My prediction 33 points

cafcdan18

Reckon we will need 50. Last year was an incredibly high total to go down with (54 I think for Posh).

No idea where the 26 points will come from, knowing us we will beat QPR and Burnley and home but lose to Barnsley and Yeovil.

Some very tough away games in there, especially when you consider our record against Millwall.

Oggy Red

You're right, Dan - that's a pretty 'orrible set of away matches we have left.

oohaahmortimer

micks1950 said:

55 points needed last year, but 48 in both 2011/12 and 2010/11, 49 in 2009/10, and 51 in 2008/9 when we went down with Norwich & Southampton (we had 39)....?

a better way to look at is 1 point above 3rd bottom

last season 55pts , 2011/12 41 pts , 2010/11 43 pts , 2009/10 48pts , 2008/9 47pts

so not as bad as the same points as 4th bottom

mid_life_crisis

Good question.
Disregard last season, it was a complete one-off and I'd be surprised if high 40s isn't enough this season. (maybe less)
Paulie - I admire your optimism, but do you seriously expect us to get 33 points from our last 19 fixtures, when we have mustered just 24 from 27. Additionally our squad is now weaker, though a couple of decent loans may redress this.
The away fixtures are horrible, I can't see us getting more than 6 or 7 points.
The home games read better and we must be targeting 5 wins to have a chance. I'll go for 16 or 17 points.
This would put on around 46 - 48 points, which is borderline.
My gut feeling is we will go down, because the squad is just not quite strong enough.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is no denying we have it all to do and will need our luck to change soon.

Saga Lout

We're not adrift at the bottom - we're right in there. The stats are scarey, but all we have to do is amass 1 more point than 3 other teams. One game at a time.

Riviera

Sorry, misread the title, thought it said how many pints. I could drink 10 pints of a session beer, say 3.8% ABV, like Master Brew for example, in two and half hours.

dallas

i think 50 will be enough and we have a game in hand over the spanners

Brian

oohaahmortimer said:

micks1950 said:

55 points needed last year, but 48 in both 2011/12 and 2010/11, 49 in 2009/10, and 51 in 2008/9 when we went down with Norwich & Southampton (we had 39)....?

a better way to look at is 1 point above 3rd bottom

last season 55pts , 2011/12 41 pts , 2010/11 43 pts , 2009/10 48pts , 2008/9 47pts

so not as bad as the same points as 4th bottom

Well, last season with 18/19 games to go the bottom 6 were

Wolves 33
Sheff Wed 32
Ipswich 32
Barnsley 28
Bristol City 28
Peterborough 26

Not a massive difference maybe 3-4 points. I think we will need 50 at least. It's gettable though but we need to start scoring at home.

dallas

lets hope the new strikers have there shooting boots on

paulie8290

mid_life_crisis said:

Good question.
Disregard last season, it was a complete one-off and I'd be surprised if high 40s isn't enough this season. (maybe less)
Paulie - I admire your optimism, but do you seriously expect us to get 33 points from our last 19 fixtures, when we have mustered just 24 from 27. Additionally our squad is now weaker, though a couple of decent loans may redress this.
The away fixtures are horrible, I can't see us getting more than 6 or 7 points.
The home games read better and we must be targeting 5 wins to have a chance. I'll go for 16 or 17 points.
This would put on around 46 - 48 points, which is borderline.
My gut feeling is we will go down, because the squad is just not quite strong enough.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is no denying we have it all to do and will need our luck to change soon.

Gotta admit i disagree i think our squad is better than before january transfer window.

Stu_of_Kunming

paulie8290 said:

mid_life_crisis said:

Good question.
Disregard last season, it was a complete one-off and I'd be surprised if high 40s isn't enough this season. (maybe less)
Paulie - I admire your optimism, but do you seriously expect us to get 33 points from our last 19 fixtures, when we have mustered just 24 from 27. Additionally our squad is now weaker, though a couple of decent loans may redress this.
The away fixtures are horrible, I can't see us getting more than 6 or 7 points.
The home games read better and we must be targeting 5 wins to have a chance. I'll go for 16 or 17 points.
This would put on around 46 - 48 points, which is borderline.
My gut feeling is we will go down, because the squad is just not quite strong enough.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is no denying we have it all to do and will need our luck to change soon.

Gotta admit i disagree i think our squad is better than before january transfer window.

I'll have whatever this guy is smoking.

Valiantphil

We need 50 in total, so 26 from 19 games - no chance.

edester81

Brian said:

If we have 24 points now with 19 games left, 30 more points would take us to 54 which I reckon would mean safety. I have looked at our last 19 games to try and predict if we could get them. On my predictions it is 26 which would give us 50 which is probably too low. Maybe we will get some loans in to make us stronger but based on what we have at present below is my thoughts. Our away games look pretty horrible on the whole so i think we will mainly be relying on our home games.

Home
Barnsley 3
Bournemouth 1
Birmingham 3
QPR 0
Watford 1
Huddersfield 3
Burnley 1
Reading 0
Yeovil 3
Bolton 3
Blackburn 1

Away
Leeds 1
Leicester 0
Millwall 1
Nottm Forest 0
Derby 0
Brighton 0
Sheff Wed 3
Blackpool 1

Although I think you are right and need that many points can you realistcally say will only lose 6 more games

Brian

edester81 said:

Brian said:

If we have 24 points now with 19 games left, 30 more points would take us to 54 which I reckon would mean safety. I have looked at our last 19 games to try and predict if we could get them. On my predictions it is 26 which would give us 50 which is probably too low. Maybe we will get some loans in to make us stronger but based on what we have at present below is my thoughts. Our away games look pretty horrible on the whole so i think we will mainly be relying on our home games.

Home
Barnsley 3
Bournemouth 1
Birmingham 3
QPR 0
Watford 1
Huddersfield 3
Burnley 1
Reading 0
Yeovil 3
Bolton 3
Blackburn 1

Away
Leeds 1
Leicester 0
Millwall 1
Nottm Forest 0
Derby 0
Brighton 0
Sheff Wed 3
Blackpool 1

Although I think you are right and need that many points can you realistcally say will only lose 6 more games

I guess I am being a tad optimistic especially with just one defeat at home. We can hope.

robroy

Wow squeaky bum time! ...gulp!

owlsonlineadmin

I personally can't see you winning at our place but I put that down to my blind optimism at the minute.

paulie8290

Stu_of_Kunming said:

paulie8290 said:

mid_life_crisis said:

Good question.
Disregard last season, it was a complete one-off and I'd be surprised if high 40s isn't enough this season. (maybe less)
Paulie - I admire your optimism, but do you seriously expect us to get 33 points from our last 19 fixtures, when we have mustered just 24 from 27. Additionally our squad is now weaker, though a couple of decent loans may redress this.
The away fixtures are horrible, I can't see us getting more than 6 or 7 points.
The home games read better and we must be targeting 5 wins to have a chance. I'll go for 16 or 17 points.
This would put on around 46 - 48 points, which is borderline.
My gut feeling is we will go down, because the squad is just not quite strong enough.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is no denying we have it all to do and will need our luck to change soon.

Gotta admit i disagree i think our squad is better than before january transfer window.

I'll have whatever this guy is smoking.

Thuram replaces alnwick
AA replaces Stephens
Polish Pete replaces yann

Then we have goochi, nego and koc as extras which is the attacker everyone wanted the right mid we have been moaning we done have and a replacement for solly.

So yeah i think from 1st feb our squad was better than 1st jan

Uboat

It looks grim, but we need to know what would happen if you did the same exercise for Yeovil, Millwall and Barnsley.
Does the BBC predictor still exist? When I get a chance I might enter predictions just for those four teams.

eaststandmike

paulie8290 said:

Stu_of_Kunming said:

paulie8290 said:

mid_life_crisis said:

Good question.
Disregard last season, it was a complete one-off and I'd be surprised if high 40s isn't enough this season. (maybe less)
Paulie - I admire your optimism, but do you seriously expect us to get 33 points from our last 19 fixtures, when we have mustered just 24 from 27. Additionally our squad is now weaker, though a couple of decent loans may redress this.
The away fixtures are horrible, I can't see us getting more than 6 or 7 points.
The home games read better and we must be targeting 5 wins to have a chance. I'll go for 16 or 17 points.
This would put on around 46 - 48 points, which is borderline.
My gut feeling is we will go down, because the squad is just not quite strong enough.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is no denying we have it all to do and will need our luck to change soon.

Gotta admit i disagree i think our squad is better than before january transfer window.

I'll have whatever this guy is smoking.

Thuram replaces alnwick
AA replaces Stephens
Polish Pete replaces yann

Then we have goochi, nego and koc as extras which is the attacker everyone wanted the right mid we have been moaning we done have and a replacement for solly.

So yeah i think from 1st feb our squad was better than 1st jan

All untested though isn't it.

Thuram does not look good enough to lace Alnwick's boots.
AA is off the pace and as yet has not impressed more than Stephens
And Polish Pete is 8 goals behind Yann

Chizz

eaststandmike said:

paulie8290 said:

Stu_of_Kunming said:

paulie8290 said:

mid_life_crisis said:

Good question.
Disregard last season, it was a complete one-off and I'd be surprised if high 40s isn't enough this season. (maybe less)
Paulie - I admire your optimism, but do you seriously expect us to get 33 points from our last 19 fixtures, when we have mustered just 24 from 27. Additionally our squad is now weaker, though a couple of decent loans may redress this.
The away fixtures are horrible, I can't see us getting more than 6 or 7 points.
The home games read better and we must be targeting 5 wins to have a chance. I'll go for 16 or 17 points.
This would put on around 46 - 48 points, which is borderline.
My gut feeling is we will go down, because the squad is just not quite strong enough.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is no denying we have it all to do and will need our luck to change soon.

Gotta admit i disagree i think our squad is better than before january transfer window.

I'll have whatever this guy is smoking.

Thuram replaces alnwick
AA replaces Stephens
Polish Pete replaces yann

Then we have goochi, nego and koc as extras which is the attacker everyone wanted the right mid we have been moaning we done have and a replacement for solly.

So yeah i think from 1st feb our squad was better than 1st jan

All untested though isn't it.

Thuram does not look good enough to lace Alnwick's boots.
AA is off the pace and as yet has not impressed more than Stephens
And Polish Pete is 8 goals behind Yann

On the other side of the coin:

- Thuram not fit to lace Alnwick's boots? Maybe, but Alnwick let in half the four on-target shots he faced, including the winner in extra time - maybe his boots weren't tied up properly?

- AA may be "off the pace", but Stephens failed to score for Brighton in a 2-0 defeat.

- "Polish Pete" may not have scored for Charlton yet; but neither has Yann scored for Bournemouth - zero goals in zero minutes, versus zero goals in 45 minutes is not a fair comparison.

Sometimes the grass isn't less green than it used to be.

micks1950

Uboat said:

It looks grim, but we need to know what would happen if you did the same exercise for Yeovil, Millwall and Barnsley.
Does the BBC predictor still exist? When I get a chance I might enter predictions just for those four teams.

The BBC predictor has gone

"We will not be relaunching the Squad Selector or Football Predictor features".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/16788740

Playing around with this 'form' table is about the best I could find:

http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html

Interestingly, according to that we'd be bottom based on 'First Half' form but 16th based on 'Second Half' form....?

Chizz

micks1950 said:

Uboat said:

It looks grim, but we need to know what would happen if you did the same exercise for Yeovil, Millwall and Barnsley.
Does the BBC predictor still exist? When I get a chance I might enter predictions just for those four teams.

The BBC predictor has gone

"We will not be relaunching the Squad Selector or Football Predictor features".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/16788740

Playing around with this 'form' table is about the best I could find:

http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html

Interestingly, according to that we'd be bottom based on 'First Half' form but 16th based on 'Second Half' form....?

Kinda points to a manager with tactical nous to turn games round and has the respect and confidence of the players during half time team talks.

Uboat

Maybe Blackpool can help us out. Long may their current form continue.

doronron

just been on oddschecker and they have bottom Yeovil,then Barnsley,then Docaster,then Charlton,then Smallwall,then Blackpool,then Brum,I think most of us will take this then next year push on

Uboat

doronron said:

just been on oddschecker and they have bottom Yeovil,then Barnsley,then Docaster,then Charlton,then Smallwall,then Blackpool,then Brum,I think most of us will take this then next year push on

The bookies are rarely wrong.

Viewfinder

Those away fixtures look bloody tough. I reckon we'll get 20 points from our remaining 19 games, giving a total of 44. Enough?

dizzee

Knowing Charlton it'll be:

Home
Barnsley 0
Bournemouth 0
Birmingham 0
QPR 3
Watford 3
Huddersfield 0
Burnley 3
Reading 3
Yeovil 0
Bolton 0
Blackburn 3

Away
Leeds 0
Leicester 3
Millwall 0
Nottm Forest 3
Derby 3
Brighton 3
Sheff Wed 0
Blackpool 0