However as I'm in a risk taking, devil may care, living on the edge mood I'm going to say 10th!
Oldham can get 78 points but we have a superior goal difference which should stand us in good stead.
I hope I'm not being complacent.
If we managed to lose our last 10 games and Oldham won their last 12 I dare say the goal difference column would look a little different. Don't think it's going to happen though!
Each of the top 10 clubs have to play a number of games against other top 10 clubs - so practically they can't all get enough points to finish above us.
IMO present worst case scenario for Charlton is to finish 6th........ providing we lose each and every one of our remaining 10 matches.
The team that wins the play-offs is usually the "form team" - if we lose all our remaining fixtures in the lead up I fear for us. Won't happen though - we're going up through the automatic route.
I don't understand that sports stats site - are they really saying we have around 95% chance of winning the league, and Sheffield Utd in 2nd place have around 2.5% chance? Doesn't seem quite right to me...
95%of the time a 9 point league is good enough to win the league with 9 games to go. That leaves a 5% chance of winning it for the rest to share (Blades. Weds.MK and Hudd).
We only need 4 points to claim a playoff place, however this is in the scenario that Notts Co lose both their games in hand, which if they don't it will be 6-10 points needed
Looking at the 6 clubs below us, who theoretically can still total more points than Charlton's current 82 ...... we can see there are 9 remaining fixtures involving the current top 7, who have still yet to play each other.
Well, both teams can't both win when they play each other - so it is impossible for all top 7 clubs to get maximum points.
Therefore, we are guaranteed a play off place already!
Sheff Utd, Sheff Weds, MK Dons all each have 2 fixtures against the top 7. Huddersfield have 3
Interestingly, Carlisle have 5 fixtures against the top 7. That has to be the hardest run in and unlikely they can get maximum points. If they did, however .....it would truly throw a spanner in the works!
Even that's not true mathematically speaking, Jodaius ......Carlisle, if they win each of the last 10 games, could total 87 points - leaving us with another 6 points to get to be mathematically certain of finishing above them.
But because teams will take points from each other, and points lost to both teams with drawn games between each other, we can't finish below 6th.
Assume that Carlisle and Stevenage both win all of their remaining games apart from when they play each other. The teams above can be taken out of the play-off equation, because even if they lose to Carlisle/Stevenage they will still be ahead of them so don't factor into the fight for 6th place.
This would give Carlisle 84pts and Stevenage 83pts.
Then consider the three possible outcomes of the Carlisle v Stevenage game, and you have the following:-
Looking at the 6 clubs below us, who theoretically can still total more points than Charlton's current 82 ...... we can see there are 9 remaining fixtures involving the current top 7, who have still yet to play each other.
Well, both teams can't both win when they play each other - so it is impossible for all top 7 clubs to get maximum points.
Therefore, we are guaranteed a play off place already!
Sheff Utd, Sheff Weds, MK Dons all each have 2 fixtures against the top 7. Huddersfield have 3
Interestingly, Carlisle have 5 fixtures against the top 7. That has to be the hardest run in and unlikely they can get maximum points. If they did, however .....it would truly throw a spanner in the works!
Huddersfield v Charlton Huddersfield v Sheff Weds
Carlisle v Charlton Carlisle v Huddersfield
Sheff Weds v Carlisle
Sheff Utd v Stevenage
MK Dons v Sheff Utd MK Dons v Carlisle
Stevenage v Carlisle
Obviously, we're looking at theoreticals, but even with that list of top 7 clashes, we could finish 7th. Assume to start that we lose all the rest of our games. In order to overhaul us, Carlisle can only afford one defeat and a draw and stevenage can only afford one defeat or two draws. But everyone else can afford at least three defeats and still theoretically finish above us. So, assuming Stevenage win all the rest of their games and Carlisle win all (except the Stevenage game), then Utd, Hudds, Weds and Dons could win lose or draw all the rest of their top seven clashes and still only drop a maximum of 6 points (or two defeats.) Assuming they win all their games against 'non-top-seven', they'll all finish above us. The latest E# table may clarify (or not!):
If Carlisle win all their remaining games (apart from Stevenage), then deduct 3 points from the total points possible from each of Charlton, Huddersfield, Sheff Weds and MK Dons ....!
EDIT: And thank you too, Lord Romford ...... your post has arrived out of sequence, for some reason!
Charlton - current 82 United - max 97 Wednesday/Huddersfield - max 95
So we need 14 more points from the final 8 games to mathematically guarantee promotion, that's exactly what we've had from the last 8 games as it happens.
Twelve more points will 99% do it, I'll happily see us win the next 4 then lose the final 4.
Comments
IMO present worst case scenario for Charlton is to finish 6th........ providing we lose each and every one of our remaining 10 matches.
And we will lose every single one of our 9 remaining matches?
;o)
Still 99% we'll go up....
Nice to see 0% we won't make the play-offs too.
Well, both teams can't both win when they play each other - so it is impossible for all top 7 clubs to get maximum points.
Therefore, we are guaranteed a play off place already!
Sheff Utd, Sheff Weds, MK Dons all each have 2 fixtures against the top 7.
Huddersfield have 3
Interestingly, Carlisle have 5 fixtures against the top 7.
That has to be the hardest run in and unlikely they can get maximum points.
If they did, however .....it would truly throw a spanner in the works!
Huddersfield v Charlton
Huddersfield v Sheff Weds
Carlisle v Charlton
Carlisle v Huddersfield
Sheff Weds v Carlisle
Sheff Utd v Stevenage
MK Dons v Sheff Utd
MK Dons v Carlisle
Stevenage v Carlisle
But because teams will take points from each other, and points lost to both teams with drawn games between each other, we can't finish below 6th.
Assume that Carlisle and Stevenage both win all of their remaining games apart from when they play each other. The teams above can be taken out of the play-off equation, because even if they lose to Carlisle/Stevenage they will still be ahead of them so don't factor into the fight for 6th place.
This would give Carlisle 84pts and Stevenage 83pts.
Then consider the three possible outcomes of the Carlisle v Stevenage game, and you have the following:-
Carlisle win: Carlisle 87, Stevenage 83
Draw: Carlisle 85, Stevenage 84
Stevenage win: Carlisle 84, Stevenage 86
So the highest possible points total for 7th place is 84. Therefore, to guarantee 6th place we need 85 pts, so one more win will do it.
All this is irrelevant, of course, because we are going to win the league :-)
We have 82 points
Maximums if Carlisle win against Stevenage : Stevenage 83, Carlisle 87
Maximums if Stevenage win - Stevenage 86, Carlisle 84.
Maximums if draw - Stevenage 85, Carlisle 86
In order to overhaul us, Carlisle can only afford one defeat and a draw and stevenage can only afford one defeat or two draws. But everyone else can afford at least three defeats and still theoretically finish above us.
So, assuming Stevenage win all the rest of their games and Carlisle win all (except the Stevenage game), then Utd, Hudds, Weds and Dons could win lose or draw all the rest of their top seven clashes and still only drop a maximum of 6 points (or two defeats.)
Assuming they win all their games against 'non-top-seven', they'll all finish above us.
The latest E# table may clarify (or not!):
E# thread
Also, you have to remember.
This just ain't gonna happen.
:-)
If Carlisle win all their remaining games (apart from Stevenage), then deduct 3 points from the total points possible from each of Charlton, Huddersfield, Sheff Weds and MK Dons ....!
EDIT: And thank you too, Lord Romford ...... your post has arrived out of sequence, for some reason!
3rd ....87 points
4th ....84 points
5th ....?
6th ....79 points
Please correct me if you can access records.
Obviously, the past is no guarantee of the future, but it can give a pretty reasonable idea of what to expect.
Is this season going to be one where the League One records tumble?
5th and 6th is 82 points
Charlton - current 82
United - max 97
Wednesday/Huddersfield - max 95
So we need 14 more points from the final 8 games to mathematically guarantee promotion, that's exactly what we've had from the last 8 games as it happens.
Twelve more points will 99% do it, I'll happily see us win the next 4 then lose the final 4.