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Lowest league position we can finish

LenGloverLenGlover
edited February 2012 in General Charlton
mathematically is 23rd, assuming that we can maintain a better goal difference than Wycombe Wanderers, whom are able to achieve 68 points should they win every game.

If we win these next two home games we may even be mathematically safe from relegation!
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Comments

  • stackitstevestackitsteve
    I tried working this out the other day but didn't know the complications with 'not every team can get all the points' as they play each other so while each team in their own right can still finish above us not all of them can at the same time if that makes sense.
  • Big WilliamBig William
    I'll tell my Wycombe mate it's us or them
  • lordromfordlordromford
    This site:

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/LeagueOne.html

    works out the permutations. I haven't studied it in real depth, so there may be flaws in the system. (One of which is that it's run by an american with american sports in mind, so it's always slightly behind, unfortunately)
    If you look at the table that shows "Chance team will finish season in position", you'll see that our chance of finishing 13th is listed as 0%, but hover over that 0 and you'll see it's 0.0000294% and requires us to lose our last 17 games (before Tranmere was played).
    14th and below have no percentage at all, so presumably, it was impossible for us to finish below 13th.
    Now we've got another point and other teams have dropped points, I daresay we're guaranteed 12th by now.

    Hope that helps!
    :-)
  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    See it has us at 99% to be promoted!
  • eaststandpetereaststandpeter
    we will be champions
  • StigStig
    I guess one of the flaws of the system is that it is only working on the probabilities of certain results occurring at random; it doesn't seem to be taking account of form. That being the case, I think that the 99% chance of promotion and 87% chance of being promoted as champions may actually be underestimates :-)
  • L BlockL Block
    1st
  • SaladSalad
    we've only got a 6 point lead on Sheffield Utd, so I'd reckon our chance of being champions is actually less than 87% - if I had to pick a figure today I'd say 70%.
  • bristoladdickbristoladdick
    If we get 6 points this week and the Wendies win on Sunday, it could be 87%.
  • lolwraylolwray
    and we wonder why millwall call us anoraks ?
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  • redmanredman
    bookies make us 4/1 on so based on that we are about 80% champions although actually I reckon that's too strong

    For promotion it's 1/25 which means about 96% chance
  • LenGloverLenGlover
    I'm going to take a wild risk and state that today we mathematically avoided relegation!

    Exeter can achieve 72 points but, being the gung ho kind of guy I am, I reckon our goal difference will remain better than theirs!

    Therefore 20th is the lowest we can finish. Relegation avoided before the end of February.
  • CallumcafcCallumcafc
    I'm going to take a wild risk and state that today we mathematically avoided relegation!

    Exeter can achieve 72 points but, being the gung ho kind of guy I am, I reckon our goal difference will remain better than theirs!

    Therefore 20th is the lowest we can finish. Relegation avoided before the end of February.
    Quite right, gain a point on Tuesday night and we can no longer be relegated.
  • lordromfordlordromford
    I'm going to take a wild risk and state that today we mathematically avoided relegation!

    Exeter can achieve 72 points but, being the gung ho kind of guy I am, I reckon our goal difference will remain better than theirs!

    Therefore 20th is the lowest we can finish. Relegation avoided before the end of February.

    We already are safe mathematically.
    We're already out of reach of the bottom three, but in addition, Exeter still have to play Walsall - If Exeter Draw or Lose, they can't catch us. If they win, Walsall can't catch us.

    :-)

  • MuttleyCAFCMuttleyCAFC
    That's a relief!!!
  • SE7toSG3SE7toSG3
    On tuesday can we sing " we are staying up" it was an old favourite that often backfired so to sing it and mean it would be good
  • CH4RLTONCH4RLTON
    Dont't count your chickens just yet, we could still go into admistration and have 10 points knocked off.
  • NossNoss
    Our current total of 72 points would have been good enough to finish 6th last season
  • NumbersNumbers
    Our current total of 72 points would have been good enough to finish 6th last season
    yes, and also if you take into account everyone below us cant win all their games as they are playing against each other quite a bit our lowest poistion is quite high (cant/cant be bothered to work it out exactly though)
  • LenGloverLenGlover
    edited February 2012
    Our current total of 72 points would have been good enough to finish 6th last season
    yes, and also if you take into account everyone below us cant win all their games as they are playing against each other quite a bit our lowest poistion is quite high (cant/cant be bothered to work it out exactly though)
    You are right but I reckon it is quite an achievement, in absolute terms, to have avoided relegation with almost a third of the season left.

    Reverting back to the relative terms point you make, I don't think a team has failed to make the play-offs with 75 points so 3 away....
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  • RothkoRothko
    lowest we're going to finish is first
  • smsm
    Dont't count your chickens just yet, we could still go into admistration and have 10 points knocked off.
    You're not the bloke who said to me it's going to be like this all season after the Rochdale game by any chance ;)
  • LenGloverLenGlover
    15th
  • SaladSalad
    if we lose every game from now on we'd still finish in the play offs.
    As a comparison we're on 78points, Bournemout made the play-offs last year with just 71.
  • Charlton and onCharlton and on
    Dont't count your chickens just yet, we could still go into admistration and have 10 points knocked off.
    You're not the bloke who said to me it's going to be like this all season after the Rochdale game by any chance ;)
    We would still be top :-)


  • LenGloverLenGlover
    edited March 2012
    12th

    Better than last season with 10 games to go.
  • Oggy RedOggy Red
    edited March 2012
    Although in reality, Len .....only about 4 or 5 of the division are capable of exceding our present 78 points.

    So in a worst case scenario of losing every single one of our remaining 10 games (!!!!!), we've probably already qualified for the playoffs.

    ;o)
  • LenGloverLenGlover
    edited March 2012
    Yes my "rule of thumb" target for the play-offs is 75 points. I don't remember a side getting that many points and not qualifying.

    We want automatic promotion though don't we?!
  • Oggy RedOggy Red
    Too right we do ..... let alone the prospect of finishing on 78 points, losing the final 12 games on the spin (Curbs-speak).
  • LenGloverLenGlover
    11th

    However as I'm in a risk taking, devil may care, living on the edge mood I'm going to say 10th!

    Oldham can get 78 points but we have a superior goal difference which should stand us in good stead.

    I hope I'm not being complacent.
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