Unemployment Figures. Worst for 17.5 years at 2.64 million. How much higher ?

ShootersHillGuru

Just how much higher will the unemployment figures get ? Given the economic outlook I can see them hitting at least 5 million. Lots of very knowledgable posters on here and I would be fascinated to read what CL thinks.

I'll qualify my reason for posting and its not to instigate another political slanging match as enjoyable as that is. I have living with me my newly married daughter and son in law both early twenties and currently both in employment with decent prospects. Given the latest figures and particularly unemployment in the under twenty fours I am worried that if things get a lot worst it could actually pull me under. My job is about as safe as it gets but my salary is already stretched and not getting better any time soon.

redcarter

I don't think they will get anywhere near 5 million

Off_it

Oh God, cue the political shenanigans episode 1,534.

EastStand

Oh God, cue the political shenanigans episode 1,534.

I 'ATE THATCHER ME!

Leroy Ambrose

I reckon around 3.5 million by the end of next year, then plateau for about 18 months before slowly getting back down to around the 2 million mark by 2015/16. We'll never go below 2 million unemployed again.

carly burn

 my salary is already stretched and not getting better any time soon.

Would asking them politely to 'bugger off' help matters? Or is that out of the question?

Addickted

How many people are there now in paid employment compared to 17.5 years ago?

Kap10

I winder what the real unemployment figures are,probably closer to 5 mill than the official figures 

Chunes

I feel for people with houses, bills and families that can't find work. It's a horrendous situation that I wouldn't wish upon anyone.

As for youth unemployment, and people without those commitments, I'm not convinced.

JaShea99

These figures only tell half the story. Eg. what isn't taken into account is the thousands of graduates taking jobs in supermarkets etc or staying in their part time jobs because they can't find graduate jobs.

Kap10

These figures only tell half the story. Eg. what isn't taken into account is the thousands of graduates taking jobs in supermarkets etc or staying in their part time jobs because they can't find graduate jobs.

mature married out of work middle management who don't get benefits after six months, there are many who cannot be bothered to be patronised on a bi weekly basis,just to get their stamp.  There are many out there, I was one and could well be again soon.

les_says

we put a media runner job advertisement on gumtree a few weeks ago and got over 200 applications. the girl i picked had 5 a levels and the money is absolute pittance. says it all really.

LonelyNorthernAddick

We'll never go below 2 million unemployed again.

I find this bit a tad strong Leroy. There's peaks and low points in every economy, we had a long peak so will probably have a long slump too. Hopefully we'll come out of the low-point sooner than i expect us to though

LenGlover

Just how much higher will the unemployment figures get ? Given the economic outlook I can see them hitting at least 5 million. Lots of very knowledgable posters on here and I would be fascinated to read what CL thinks.

I'll qualify my reason for posting and its not to instigate another political slanging match as enjoyable as that is. I have living with me my newly married daughter and son in law both early twenties and currently both in employment with decent prospects. Given the latest figures and particularly unemployment in the under twenty fours I am worried that if things get a lot worst it could actually pull me under. My job is about as safe as it gets but my salary is already stretched and not getting better any time soon.

I think as parents it is and will be increasingly necessary to help "grown up" children for longer one way or the other...

Leroy Ambrose

We'll never go below 2 million unemployed again.

I find this bit a tad strong Leroy. There's peaks and low points in every economy, we had a long peak so will probably have a long slump too. Hopefully we'll come out of the low-point sooner than i expect us to though

I'm aware of that - but the game has changed significantly since the last trough. We don't make anything any more, our financial services industry is going to be decimated over the next few years, we've had no investment in technology industries in the past two decades, and can't compete with the slave labour in China if we try to start mass-producing anything. Meanwhile, millions of people are getting further into debt paying for useless degrees, with increased lobbying from business to relax rules on bringing 'skilled' (read 'cheap') labour in from abroad to do jobs that anyone could do with a month's training.

All Western economies are f***ed, but ours is especially vulnerable.

MattD

Must be good to be a footballer and not give a shit

24 Red

I'm aware of that - but the game has changed significantly since the last trough. We don't make anything any more, our financial services industry is going to be decimated over the next few years, we've had no investment in technology industries in the past two decades, and can't compete with the slave labour in China if we try to start mass-producing anything. Meanwhile, millions of people are getting further into debt paying for useless degrees, with increased lobbying from business to relax rules on bringing 'skilled' (read 'cheap') labour in from abroad to do jobs that anyone could do with a month's training.

All Western economies are f***ed, but ours is especially vulnerable.

Agree with that. The 'recovery' from this recession is unlikely to create as many jobs as have been lost. I'm not sure that living standards will recover for many of us either. Makes me wonder whether democratic capitalism is a busted model; we've got unelected Governments in Greece and Italy, China operating a sort of free market dictatorship and an international market and financial system that no national government has a hope of controlling. Strange times.

sralan

Once upon a time the West used to seek out cheap production in the East. I can well imagine in 20-30 years time the roles will be reversed

Lincsaddick

very soon there will be different schemes and statistical methods to 'massage' the unemployment figures. The problem is not so much the number but the make up of the unemployed population. Mostly young, fairly well educated and keen to work. How recent govts have made laws allowing 'old people' to stay at work until they drop dead at the monitor or lathe or cashtill is ridiculous .. saving money on OA Pensions at the expense of dole money for young people .. Historically the state sector, including the NHS has invented jobs to provide both employment and the vital first work rung on the ladder of working life .. given the soon to take effect swathing cuts, that outlet is now blocked .. I have said this before on here ad nauseum .. manufacturing is the ONLY WAY to create mass jobs. Put huge tariffs on Chinese goods and if the UK population doesn't like the fact that their cheap rubbish becomes too expensive, tough, it's either that or a lost generation or two who may never work. Washing machines, TVs, cars, computers .. made in the UK goods for UK consumers .. there is NO other way out of this mess unless 5 million unemployed becomes 'acceptable'.  Unfortunately a government that needs to be reelected every 5 years will not have the political will to carry out the necessary measures. Perhaps a benign dictatorship is required to make the necessary social, political and economic changes that are desperately needed. As Aristotle said : 'democracy is an interesting stepping stone on the path to anarchy' ... there must be a better way .. suggestions ?

Lincsaddick

 

Once upon a time the West used to seek out cheap production in the East. I can well imagine in 20-30 years time the roles will be reversed

let us hope so !!!!!!!!!!!

sralan

Are you suggesting we become self sufficient? One major problem is that cheap labour will always be a priority with employers, either to "get rich quick" or to just stay competitive. Years ago we relied  on heavy industry but invested nothing in more efficient and modern machinery. The results can be seen today... we have no heavy industry to speak of. All of our job markets are being flooded with cheap labour to the detriment of our own and as you point out, we are being asked to work till we die.

The world is becoming over populated and the resources are just not there.

HarryHutchens

A well known bank which has an office near Manchester was recently trying to recruit people on a short term contract (my girlfriend is helping to manage the associated project). The pay is average and the work is basic clerical, so they lined up five people for interview - only ONE turned up and even she turned the job down. There are a lot more jobs out there than sections of the media will have us believe, but at the same time our welfare system makes it too easy for many people not to bother.

 

Also, when we hear these stories like '100 graduates for every graduate job', this does not mean that 99 out of every 100 grads are unemployed. The internet nowadays makes it very easy to apply for jobs, so for many of these jobs it's the same 100 graduates who are applying for all of the jobs, so if for example there are 95 jobs then it's effectively only 5 grads who are unemployed.

Leroy Ambrose

A well known bank which has an office near Manchester was recently trying to recruit people on a short term contract (my girlfriend is helping to manage the associated project). The pay is average and the work is basic clerical, so they lined up five people for interview - only ONE turned up and even she turned the job down. There are a lot more jobs out there than sections of the media will have us believe, but at the same time our welfare system makes it too easy for many people not to bother.

 

Also, when we hear these stories like '100 graduates for every graduate job', this does not mean that 99 out of every 100 grads are unemployed. The internet nowadays makes it very easy to apply for jobs, so for many of these jobs it's the same 100 graduates who are applying for all of the jobs, so if for example there are 95 jobs then it's effectively only 5 grads who are unemployed.

This still doesn't hide the fact that there are nearly three million people OFFICIALLY unemployed in this country - with the 'real' figure being closer to eight million. There certainly aren't three million vacancies out there are there?

PL54

There are the 500k that the previous government hired into office jobs in the NHS to be made redundant yet.

Lincsaddick

A well known bank which has an office near Manchester was recently trying to recruit people on a short term contract (my girlfriend is helping to manage the associated project). The pay is average and the work is basic clerical, so they lined up five people for interview - only ONE turned up and even she turned the job down. There are a lot more jobs out there than sections of the media will have us believe, but at the same time our welfare system makes it too easy for many people not to bother.

 

Also, when we hear these stories like '100 graduates for every graduate job', this does not mean that 99 out of every 100 grads are unemployed. The internet nowadays makes it very easy to apply for jobs, so for many of these jobs it's the same 100 graduates who are applying for all of the jobs, so if for example there are 95 jobs then it's effectively only 5 grads who are unemployed.

This type of story is not uncommon. I agree that 'welfare' (an Americanism that is superceding 'Social Security' as the lexicon for 'state handout') is often too high to encourage many people to take up employment. The answer is to withdraw benefits if a 'reasonable' job' is turned down. Equally, the benefits system is all or nothing. A more fluid and relevant system is required, for example, 50% OF BENEFITS IS PAYABLE FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS AT WORK, 25% FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS .. a bit like that. At the moment it's all carrot and no stick or all stick and no carrot, not to suggest that the UK workforce is composed of a huge herd of donkeys.

guinnessaddick

Once upon a time the West used to seek out cheap production in the East. I can well imagine in 20-30 years time the roles will be reversed

It will be Africa or South America's turn before it comes round to Europe.

Harry Gregory

Globalisation benefits only  the greedy capitalist billionaire shareholders in the longterm. Moving manufacturing constantly east meansthat  their wages will have to rise eventually to western levels to buy the goods that unemployed westerners can no longer afford. Western politicians need to stop pandering to the "markets" and show some interest in the poor sops that voted for the fuckers!

Leroy Ambrose

Globalisation benefits only  the greedy capitalist billionaire shareholders in the longterm. Moving manufacturing constantly east meansthat  their wages will have to rise eventually to western levels to buy the goods that unemployed westerners can no longer afford. Western politicians need to stop pandering to the "markets" and show some interest in the poor sops that voted for the fuckers!

Never going to happen. 50 million people more interested in which talentless c***'s autotuned rendition of someone else's song than in the fact they've had the wool pulled over their eyes for thirty years and are destined to live unfulfilled lives of pointless meandering towards a depressing, meaningless death. Religion is no longer the opiate of the masses - ennui is.

mistrollingin

Agree with every word of that, Leroy.

The older I become, the more I appreciate that I grew up in the late 1950's and 60's.

Lincsaddick

Globalisation benefits only  the greedy capitalist billionaire shareholders in the longterm. Moving manufacturing constantly east meansthat  their wages will have to rise eventually to western levels to buy the goods that unemployed westerners can no longer afford. Western politicians need to stop pandering to the "markets" and show some interest in the poor sops that voted for the fuckers!

Never going to happen. 50 million people more interested in which talentless c***'s autotuned rendition of someone else's song than in the fact they've had the wool pulled over their eyes for thirty years and are destined to live unfulfilled lives of pointless meandering towards a depressing, meaningless death. Religion is no longer the opiate of the masses - ennui is.

make that Corrie, EEnders, XFactor, (errrr whisper it but football and other major sports), shopping, McDonalds, pornography, any expensive item prefixed with an 'i',  any nuovo quasi drug to keep us all working hard in order to get cash to buy rubbish/stuff that is unnecessary and more often than not unaffordable....

Addickted

with the 'real' figure being closer to eight million.

What a load of old bollocks. And you have a go at the 'Tory press' for peddling falsehoods and propoganda.

I'd guarantee you 1million of the unemployed figure, either don't want to work, can't be arsed to work when they can survive on benefits or are unemployable for various reasons from illeteracy through to criminal records.