Because like it or lump it- the failiure of the Euro will bring us down with it. Not that we are particularly up in the first place!
Maybe, but if before it collapsed I transferred my euros into pounds, would I have time to transfer those pounds back into 'new francs' before the collapse of the pound!?
I've got a couple of thousand or so Euros tucked away for business trips to Europe, for example I'm doing an exhibition in Frankfurt in February. I was wondering should I cash them in for Sterling?
Not a really big deal but I was wondering if any of you have (or are about to) exchange any Euros you may have knocking around?
When in Greece this summer I was advised to get rid on any "Greek" euros that I had. Apparently the serial number (The Pre-fix) on all notes signifies which country issued them & if Greece goes bust the notes will be unusable. Anybody confirm this please ?
I can confirm that it is utter, utter bullshit. Whilst there is no 'agreed' mechanism for leaving the Euro (it was never envisaged (either deliberately or short-sightedly) that a country would ever exit the euro) so there isn't any hard and fast plan on how to do it, serial numbers on banknotes is the most ludicrous idea imaginable. Even without getting into the (complicated) ins and outs of such a method, two immediate things should come to mind.
Firstly, probably around 20% of Euro notes in circulation in Greece are non-Greek (massive tourism industry means the proportion of 'foreign' serialled Euros are likely to be much higher in volume there than in a lot of other Euro countries.
Secondly, the vast majority of what we're talking about when we talk about 'money' isn't actualy, physical money - but exists in financial instruments and systems. How would refusing to take Greek serialled banknotes in Germany work then?
I've seen this rumour out about by at least two 'news'papers (Telegraph and Mail) - both of whom have a vested interest in panicking people about the collapse of the Euro, and thus use every opportunity to both attempt to put euro withdrawal into terms that the layman can understand, and sensationalise any problems it encounters. The Euro is undoubtedly utterly fucked, but suggestions that Greek printed Euros will become worthless if Greece exits the Euro is utter tosh.
Well the fact that I have all U's makes sense as I live in France. I might start surprising people by checking that they don't give me a a Greek or even Italian one.
Heard an expert talking and saying that it was always known this sort of financial crisis would happen and when it did the only solution to stopping it happening again would be to turn the Eurozone into a single country. It was no secret that Greece did a deal with Goldman Sachs to hide the Greece debt with artificial swap instruments. The eurocrats didn't care if a weak country was brought in because if it failed it would bring forward their agenda for a State of Europe so they went along with the pretence that Greece met the standards, it was a win win for them. A conspiracy theory I'm prepared to believe.
Sounds like the worst conspiracy ever. Europe is falling apart not coming closer together. A few years ago it looked like a United States of Europe might actually happen. Now it is absolutely certain that it will not.
The Common Market only existed as a result of having to re-build Europe after WWII and was designed to ensure France and Germany were on the same side in future. The logic is that if Europe collapses financially and falls apart it will have to be re-built and will be the same sort of catalyst for protective alliances that WWII was. If Europe retains a single currency, and having proved that without a Central European State Bank running a single currency and controlling interest rates and inflation, it doesn't work, the United States of Europe will emerge as the solution to preventing another financial WWII.
The common market didn't come into existence until 1957. It had nothing to do with rebuilding Europe after WW2 (you may be getting mixed up with teh Marshall plan). It was a trading block. Although I agree one of the aims was to ensure France and Germany wouldn't fall out again, it was never a military/protetcive alliance (that was/is NATO).
I honestly don't understand your second sentence save the bit about a Central European State Bank. The ECB already sets interest rates.
The common market didn't come into existence until 1957. It had nothing to do with rebuilding Europe after WW2 (you may be getting mixed up with teh Marshall plan). It was a trading block. Although I agree one of the aims was to ensure France and Germany wouldn't fall out again, it was never a military/protetcive alliance (that was/is NATO).
I honestly don't understand your second sentence save the bit about a Central European State Bank. The ECB already sets interest rates.
Part of the rationale behind the EEC was to develop closer cross-border economic ties that would make war difficult if not all but impossible. The EEC grew out of the European Coal and Steel Community, the idea behind that treaty was to ensure that if nations across Europe relied on a common market for coal and steel production it would be materially impossible to go to war.
There were also greater concerns about developing West Europe as a stronger economic bulwark against the threat from the USSR. In that regard it tied in with Marshall Aid.
As the Euro note etc is issued by the European Bank I would be very surprised if the idea that Greek notes had any different value post any collapse held any water
As the Euro note etc is issued by the European Bank I would be very surprised if the idea that Greek notes had any different value post any collapse held any water
They don't and won't, even if Greece withdraws from the Euro you'll be able to exchange any Greek Euro notes at parity with other Euro notes or into Sterling etc. As Leroy points out it was a scare story run only in two Eurosceptic papers and has been repeated by other Eurosceptics since.
Don't believe the Euro is finished - too much resting on it and the combined GDP / debt of all countries fairly healthy - last I heard is that the real issue is 30 years down the road with pension commitments
As someone said Greece is only 2% of GDP BUT locally they have no hope of paying back their own debt for many reasons ... Only call I would make is that central currency needs central fiscal government with strict local limits... and that there may need to be a mechanism for ejecting countries?
As for a Greek referendum - great idea but needs to be soon and not wait until 2012 - the markets tend to force panic - a referendum will give the Greek people a clear choice highlighting solutions helped by French and other Banks forgiving 50% of their debts ( can I try this with my mortgage?)
I hear that the biggest issue with an unstructured default is that it will cause flight from Italy, Spain and Belgium(!) and trigger those infamous Credit Default Swaps - who knows who is holding what but it could exceed £1Trillion... then again someone is going to make a killing
Posting without reading: I can't see the Euro outliving this storm. I'm surprised its lasted this long. Black Wednesday showed us back in 92 that it was a dangerous game to play, and we have probably done far better out of it than if we were in it. One country can't continue to prop up Greece and all the others for very long, its ridiculous. I tihnk there's far too much reliance on loans as well, how is loaning Greece the millionth bail out fund going to help them in the long run? If it had taken one fund then it might've made sense, but now they're just creating more debt for Greece in the long run and damaging their own economy in the first place. I give the Euro two years maybe. The political unionship between the EU members wont be crushed (I hope, or that could be very worrying) but I think the Euro will certainly go, trading benefits will still be in place but the whole economic union will come crashing down.
As for a Greek referendum - great idea but needs to be soon and not wait until 2012 - the markets tend to force panic - a referendum will give the Greek people a clear choice highlighting solutions helped by French and other Banks forgiving 50% of their debts ( can I try this with my mortgage?)
No, or they would take your house that is secured on it, but there is a very good chance that you would get away with it with credit cards or unsecured loans. This would be, especially, true if you'd managed to borrow way more than you could ever hope to pay back, and in the case of credit cards, if you'd been borrowing from one to pay the interest on an other for months and months.
Ultimately if an individual goes bankrupt this is exactly what happens, save for the 50% bit. You lose all your assets and all your debts are waived. If does cause problems getting credit for a couple of years, but if you don't own much that can be liquidated (like Greece) then you have little to lose, apart for your honour, of course.
I must admit that the Greeks have really put a hand grenade into the arrangements of the Eurozone arrangements, I expected a two tier Euro zone out of all of this, and had to smile when I heard about this, when it was proposed, letting the Greek people have a say about the measures to be imposed on them, left the politicians with a stunned silence for about 48 hours, especially with the Chinese making noises that they might not buy into this arrangement, at least as far as helping out?. Cameron's '3 line whip' now looks so wide of the mark that, the Greeks will be handed the chance to vote, on this who are one of the prime reasons we are in this state, or should I say the Euro is?......... but give the UK a chance to decide on this, no way, what do you think this is a democracy !......... Now to use a saying "What did the greeks ever do for us?"
Your post would make a lot of sence, apart from the fact we chose not to join the EuroZone, yet still ended up bailing out the Irish for how much....?
Make the right call but but pay the same price.... makes sense....
We pulled out of what would then become the EuroZone after Black Wednesday, and that whole palava was due to us being in the first step towards the EuroZone, the ERM. Up until that point we were as involved as any other country could be at that time, albeit with fierce disagreement from some factions in the country.
Can anyone explain what would happen if governments agreed to declare illegal and cancel forthwith all existing and future credit default swaps? They do seem a particularly toxic ingredient of the whole dish of poison that the bankers have cooked up for us.
Unfortunatly Greece had themselevs to blame because they over spent which got themselves into this mess. So basically they spent more than they gained. I know they spent a lot on the Olympics but never really recovered from that. They should of not joined the Euro in the first place.
As for the Euro itself , It was obvious when the Euro was launched that there were Countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal that won't going to fit into the Euro properly and it was orginally launched for political reasons and not for ecomonic reasons. What these countries need now desperatly is to get there own Countries back, de-value and get there own ecomony's back and as soon as this happens the better.
I am so glad we did not join the Euro and kept the pound but why on earth can we not hold a referendum when we pay most of our taxes to the EU and yet they dictate what we should and should not do. Why can we not have our own laws and just use europe as good next door neighbour's we can get along with? Unfortunatly for us, we have a lot of big european companies based in the UK and we don't have many british companies in Europe, so to us Europe would still use our country for buisness even if we left the European union altogether. If do what Norway and Switzerland are doing, which is free trade agreement with Europe but not part of the political union that would be so much better for us economically and we can have our own taxes spent on UK and not on Europe.
Have any of you listened to Nigel Farage on his issues on the EU because I personally think he is spot on.
Greece has rendered my office useless on a personal point of view. No European deals since July. But We all need an answer somehow to move on else its detrimental to all of us.
The problem with the €uro is that it was fundamentally flawed before it was ever introduced. It was a political dream and never a serious economic answer. The trouble with politics is politicians. The trouble with ambitious politicians is that they are obsessed with legacy and their own places in history.
From de Gaulle to Delors via Mitterrand and Kohl these figures fudged and budged their way to force and bully their dream of monetary union to Europe, the first step to the ultimate ambition of total integration amongst Europe. In financial terms, political terms and in defence.
The first mistake was not to get everyone onside before going ahead. Countries like the UK, Sweden and Denmark all opted out. Some countries like Germany refused to put the question of the €uro to the people on the basis that they knew that it would be rejected. France's referendum on the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty was widely questioned for its reliability. It was carried by about 500k votes only. They would never have got the people to vote out the beloved Franc.
Then within the first period of the new currency the €urozone let large member states break strict rules on borrowing levels against their respective GDP's. This wasn't small economics like Greece and Portugal, oh no this was France and Germany! All conveniently forgotten today.
However, the main reason for the trouble the €uro and its members find themselves in is that it was never a true monetary union. It was a currency, it had a central bank (ECB) and a nice flag. But to have true monetary union you need fiscal union too. It's no good having one common currency with one common interest rate if you then have 11, 12...now 17 members who have their own fiscal policy. ie 17 governments setting their own Tax rates and collecting, or not collecting them as is a major problem, in different ways. 17 different Public Sector Spending/Borrowing budgets. It just can't work unless you do everything economically together as one.
But of course we have 17 different member states with different economies, different GDP's, different balance of payments, different employment rates etc etc. Moreover 17 different cultures. So you cannot have one single total economic policy for every country in Europe, so you cannot have a single currency with a Central Bank that has no more power than to set interest rates and inflation targets. Well you can but then you have what we have now: A beaten and battered €uro.
Tonight in Cannes the EU has suspended the €8 Billion due to Greece in a couple of weeks until after their referendum. They didn't actually say what happens if the Greeks vote no!
The Greek PM is however standing firm. He says nothing will be decided by anyone but the Greek people. Brave words but the consequences of a no vote doesn't bear thinking about .
Comments
Firstly, probably around 20% of Euro notes in circulation in Greece are non-Greek (massive tourism industry means the proportion of 'foreign' serialled Euros are likely to be much higher in volume there than in a lot of other Euro countries.
Secondly, the vast majority of what we're talking about when we talk about 'money' isn't actualy, physical money - but exists in financial instruments and systems. How would refusing to take Greek serialled banknotes in Germany work then?
I've seen this rumour out about by at least two 'news'papers (Telegraph and Mail) - both of whom have a vested interest in panicking people about the collapse of the Euro, and thus use every opportunity to both attempt to put euro withdrawal into terms that the layman can understand, and sensationalise any problems it encounters. The Euro is undoubtedly utterly fucked, but suggestions that Greek printed Euros will become worthless if Greece exits the Euro is utter tosh.
The common market didn't come into existence until 1957. It had nothing to do with rebuilding Europe after WW2 (you may be getting mixed up with teh Marshall plan). It was a trading block. Although I agree one of the aims was to ensure France and Germany wouldn't fall out again, it was never a military/protetcive alliance (that was/is NATO).
I honestly don't understand your second sentence save the bit about a Central European State Bank. The ECB already sets interest rates.
Part of the rationale behind the EEC was to develop closer cross-border economic ties that would make war difficult if not all but impossible. The EEC grew out of the European Coal and Steel Community, the idea behind that treaty was to ensure that if nations across Europe relied on a common market for coal and steel production it would be materially impossible to go to war.
There were also greater concerns about developing West Europe as a stronger economic bulwark against the threat from the USSR. In that regard it tied in with Marshall Aid.
They don't and won't, even if Greece withdraws from the Euro you'll be able to exchange any Greek Euro notes at parity with other Euro notes or into Sterling etc. As Leroy points out it was a scare story run only in two Eurosceptic papers and has been repeated by other Eurosceptics since.
Don't believe the Euro is finished - too much resting on it and the combined GDP / debt of all countries fairly healthy - last I heard is that the real issue is 30 years down the road with pension commitments
As someone said Greece is only 2% of GDP BUT locally they have no hope of paying back their own debt for many reasons ... Only call I would make is that central currency needs central fiscal government with strict local limits... and that there may need to be a mechanism for ejecting countries?
As for a Greek referendum - great idea but needs to be soon and not wait until 2012 - the markets tend to force panic - a referendum will give the Greek people a clear choice highlighting solutions helped by French and other Banks forgiving 50% of their debts ( can I try this with my mortgage?)
I hear that the biggest issue with an unstructured default is that it will cause flight from Italy, Spain and Belgium(!) and trigger those infamous Credit Default Swaps - who knows who is holding what but it could exceed £1Trillion... then again someone is going to make a killing
Yet they seem able to bail out the US and the EU, bang goes your theory.....
Your post would make a lot of sence, apart from the fact we chose not to join the EuroZone, yet still ended up bailing out the Irish for how much....?
Make the right call but but pay the same price.... makes sense....
I bought 2 500g packs of feta cheese in Asda yesterday and got 1 Rhodes free.
More to the point, are the old Drachmas I've got in my sock drawer worth anything now?
If you've not seen this before, it sets out some comment on part of the previously agreed solution.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CZr17HLH5U&feature=youtu.be
Scary stuff. Anyone want to join in? Having one's own currency is an absolute essential, whatever happens to the Euro.
As for the Euro itself , It was obvious when the Euro was launched that there were Countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal that won't going to fit into the Euro properly and it was orginally launched for political reasons and not for ecomonic reasons. What these countries need now desperatly is to get there own Countries back, de-value and get there own ecomony's back and as soon as this happens the better.
I am so glad we did not join the Euro and kept the pound but why on earth can we not hold a referendum when we pay most of our taxes to the EU and yet they dictate what we should and should not do. Why can we not have our own laws and just use europe as good next door
neighbour's we can get along with? Unfortunatly for us, we have a lot of
big european companies based in the UK and we don't have many british
companies in Europe, so to us Europe would still use our country for
buisness even if we left the European union altogether.
If do what Norway and Switzerland are doing, which is free trade agreement with Europe but not part of the political union that would be so much better for us economically and we can have our own taxes spent on UK and not on Europe.
Have any of you listened to Nigel Farage on his issues on the EU because I personally think he is spot on.
Greece has rendered my office useless on a personal point of view. No European deals since July. But We all need an answer somehow to move on else its detrimental to all of us.
The problem with the €uro is that it was fundamentally flawed before it was ever introduced. It was a political dream and never a serious economic answer. The trouble with politics is politicians. The trouble with ambitious politicians is that they are obsessed with legacy and their own places in history.
From de Gaulle to Delors via Mitterrand and Kohl these figures fudged and budged their way to force and bully their dream of monetary union to Europe, the first step to the ultimate ambition of total integration amongst Europe. In financial terms, political terms and in defence.
The first mistake was not to get everyone onside before going ahead. Countries like the UK, Sweden and Denmark all opted out. Some countries like Germany refused to put the question of the €uro to the people on the basis that they knew that it would be rejected. France's referendum on the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty was widely questioned for its reliability. It was carried by about 500k votes only. They would never have got the people to vote out the beloved Franc.
Then within the first period of the new currency the €urozone let large member states break strict rules on borrowing levels against their respective GDP's. This wasn't small economics like Greece and Portugal, oh no this was France and Germany! All conveniently forgotten today.
However, the main reason for the trouble the €uro and its members find themselves in is that it was never a true monetary union. It was a currency, it had a central bank (ECB) and a nice flag. But to have true monetary union you need fiscal union too. It's no good having one common currency with one common interest rate if you then have 11, 12...now 17 members who have their own fiscal policy. ie 17 governments setting their own Tax rates and collecting, or not collecting them as is a major problem, in different ways. 17 different Public Sector Spending/Borrowing budgets. It just can't work unless you do everything economically together as one.
But of course we have 17 different member states with different economies, different GDP's, different balance of payments, different employment rates etc etc. Moreover 17 different cultures. So you cannot have one single total economic policy for every country in Europe, so you cannot have a single currency with a Central Bank that has no more power than to set interest rates and inflation targets. Well you can but then you have what we have now: A beaten and battered €uro.
********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
Tonight in Cannes the EU has suspended the €8 Billion due to Greece in a couple of weeks until after their referendum. They didn't actually say what happens if the Greeks vote no!
The Greek PM is however standing firm. He says nothing will be decided by anyone but the Greek people. Brave words but the consequences of a no vote doesn't bear thinking about
.
Don't go making a habit of it now.....