It's like asking the man in the street whether the acquisition of a non-zero vacuum expectation value spontaneously breaks electroweak gauge symmetry. Unless that man happens to be Stephen Hawking you really can't expect him to have an informed opinion.
I'd like to think that most people know that the Higgs mechanism is the simplest mechanism capable of giving mass to the gauge bosons that is also compatible with gauge theories.
Will Greece default? My prediction is yes. And they'll drop the euro.
Will the euro collapse ? My prediction is definitely no.
I might not be good at football predictions but we've been discussing this subject for over a year in the numismatic circles and things are developing as
as we had predicted. It's a bit like the bookies, they usually know a little bit more than the others.
It's possible that if Greece pull out, people from other countries who come under the "PIGS" category (Portugal, Italy and Spain) will become worried about the saftey of their money in banks, withdrawing it and putting it into foreign banks; which could be calamitous, causing their banks to colapse and economies to crumble; which could lead to the colapse of the Euro. Of course there's so many 'coulds' in this; as noone really knows what will happen.
This is the point. I am one of those people and I have been considering this. We have also been planning to buy a property for a while or moreover do a new-build (we live in a region of France where this makes sense). I've stepped this up and have looked at ten plots of land in the last two weeks because I believe having land will be better than our savings in the bank.
I've thinking today that it's best to envisage the collapse of the euro. I don't think it's unrealistic. It's perhaps a case of 7/1 against but I'm not willing to risk those odds. If I assume that the euro will collapse then I know that our savings will be converted to 'new francs.' But at what rate will that be? It could be the 6.55 to 1 euro they used back in 2001 but it could also be only 5 or less. Could it be more?
This is my (and any others Lifers living in the EU) problem at the moment (although I feel those around me and naive about it) but soon after it will become a UK problem. Would it even be worth transferring my money into pounds? Perhaps I should buy Chinese money (or even land in Indonesia as an Indonesian miner friend of mine suggested!)
as long as it's just the 5/6 richer nations - suits me. I may even be allowed to vote in France unlike now! Or more likely my British passport will be worthless (to stay in France) as it will no longer be one of the EU nations.
as long as it's just the 5/6 richer nations - suits me. I may even be allowed to vote in France unlike now! Or more likely my British passport will be worthless (to stay in France) as it will no longer be one of the EU nations.
I think we could see a tighter union of the "in" members ie those in the Euro with the "outs" (UK, Sweden?, Denmark, some of the new Eastern European members) left on the fringes.
But who can say? It's changing so fast and the politicians can't keep up with the pace set by the markets.
as long as it's just the 5/6 richer nations - suits me. I may even be allowed to vote in France unlike now! Or more likely my British passport will be worthless (to stay in France) as it will no longer be one of the EU nations.
I think we could see a tighter union of the "in" members ie those in the Euro with the "outs" (UK, Sweden?, Denmark, some of the new Eastern European members) left on the fringes.
But who can say? It's changing so fast and the politicians can't keep up with the pace set by the markets.
Heard an expert talking and saying that it was always known this sort of financial crisis would happen and when it did the only solution to stopping it happening again would be to turn the Eurozone into a single country. It was no secret that Greece did a deal with Goldman Sachs to hide the Greece debt with artificial swap instruments. The eurocrats didn't care if a weak country was brought in because if it failed it would bring forward their agenda for a State of Europe so they went along with the pretence that Greece met the standards, it was a win win for them. A conspiracy theory I'm prepared to believe.
Sounds like the worst conspiracy ever. Europe is falling apart not coming closer together. A few years ago it looked like a United States of Europe might actually happen. Now it is absolutely certain that it will not.
How we have got from a common market (which was an excellent thing) to a European super state beggars belief. Surely, if you are going to share a currency - you need to ensure the countries doing so have similar economies and are not basket cases like Greece. The Germans have got this thing in their heads about a European superstate stopping wars which has always been rubbish.
You will never have a single European country as the German and French People won't accept anything that lowers their standards - which a single country full of basket cases most definitely would. They are not particularly happy about having to bail out Greece!!!!
How we have got from a common market (which was an excellent thing) to a European super state beggars belief. Surely, if you are going to share a currency - you need to ensure the countries doing so have similar economies and are not basket cases like Greece. The Germans have got this thing in their heads about a European superstate stopping wars which has always been rubbish.
You will never have a single European country as the German and French People won't accept anything that lowers their standards - which a single country full of basket cases most definitely would. They are not particularly happy about having to bail out Greece!!!!
The whole idea about the EU was to get the thing established in the first place which happened with the Treaty of Rome in 1957. That allowed for tariffs between the nations to be first frozen then reduced to the point where they could be abolished. Over-time other elements of what was then the EEC were introduced such as free movement of labour and capital. The Euro was the longterm objective and to be fair it's still a good idea, but the problem has been allowing nations like Greece in before they were ready and as we can see they are dragging the whole thing down. Having one monetary policy is a big enough problem in the UK where there are disparities in wealth from say London and the South East to the north, doing this across a continent makes it even harder.
I can see the Euro being reduced to Germany, Benelux, France, maybe Italy and perhaps a couple of other nations.
I think they should consult two sheds myself. If he did invest in gold when he said we all should he should be appearing onthe TimesRich list any time now.
They should face facts now - the greeks have effectively defaulted already. Harsh but we should cut em lose and put the effort into proping up economies that are still viable not pumping more cash into a doomed experiment. Walk away from the table, dont keep chasing your losses in the hope that your lucks got to change!
1. Too little detail - "generate first steps towards fiscal & political union" is very warm & fuzzy but doesn't mean anything without detail. How are they going to achieve it?
2. The most important part is the extension of the EFSF and the creation of a firewall around Italy & Spain. A run on either is unthinkable (although there are obviously those thinking it!). The current plan is for the EFSF to absorb the first 10/20% of losses, but with Greek debt writedown likely to be 50% (or more) this number obviously sounds inadequate. In short €1TRN is too low, but Germany and others have refused to put more in or offer indefinite support from the ECB.
NOTE: Greek GDP is c.€340BN whereas Italy is at €2TRN! Italy currently have debt of €1.9TRN with €200BN due next year alone.
3. The other scheme to bolster the EFSF is to create Special Funds financed by investors and Sovereign Wealth funds. Firstly, each fnd is directed to one country or fund which is hardly spreading risk and secondly, if Germany are not prepared to commit more funds...why should they! Hence the pretty fruitless trip to China last week.
4. Back to Greece. The "haircut" must be voluntary to maintain the illusionthat there is no default. If not, the Credit Default Swap (insurance premium) will be triggered and no-one has a clue what chaos that will cause!
As many have said...the scandal is that Greece and many others were allowed in in the first place. There was never a prayer that they could be confined to the narrow parameters which the powerhouse of Germany set!
It's like asking the man in the street whether the acquisition of a non-zero vacuum expectation value spontaneously breaks electroweak gauge symmetry. Unless that man happens to be Stephen Hawking you really can't expect him to have an informed opinion.
But I'd bet there are a few on here who would have one!
Ha ha spot on.
Just been watching the BBC and Bloomberg coverage of the greatest financial minds in Europe scratching their heads as to the consequences and solution to the Euro crisis.
Presenter literally just cut away and said "....sorry to interupt but we have breaking news as Dave from Bexleyheath has just posted something on a football forum in between his contributions on the Would Ya and FIFA 12 threads that is quite possibly the answer!"
Any country that struggles with passing bog paper around a U bend needs to be treated with doubt.
This. But do they actually have U bends?
While I was there in May the pool service guy (English) told me he'd just had his water bill - for 2009! He went to try to pay it and they told him to go away as they weren't geared up to take the money yet. The local post office had run out of stamps too.
But why does it matter? Why are the markets worried? The Greek GDP is about 2% of the EU's and is absolutely miniscule in World terms - probably producing about the same as a small town in China. Just tell them they are not getting any more money, chuck them out of the Eurozone and tell them to do what they like. A few banks will write off a few billion and the rest of us can get back to reality. Despite our contribution to their economy through tourism the UK is neither a major exporter to or importer from Greece.
As already stated Italy is likely to be the real issue down the line.
Question i want to ask is why do people let things get to this point? making popular promises /spending money they haven't got etc, these are people who are supposed to be the brightest minds in the country, and purport to be some of the most educated , what hope is there for the rest of us? educated idiots ( no offence meant to anyone on here who is highly educated!!)
If any of us understood it we could make a pile of dosh.
The banks lent Greece money because they knew being in the EU meant any tin pot country will get a large pile of cash to do anything they want with. How strange they have (but could never afford) retirement at 55 yet in the UK where we pay £65 BILLION a year to the EU our retirement age is 65 (and now going up) ? how does that work then? We not in the EuroZone but lent Eire £7 Billion , how does that work ?
Brown promised us a vote on the EU when he was Blairs pup----------we never got it. Cameron promised us one----- we never got it.Ireland had a vote on the Mastrich Treaty(sic) -------------we never got one. UK is the second biggest net contributer to the EU yet we get no say ?
This is a basic question but one that I just cannot fathom. If the euro is in such crisis which of course cannot be denied then why is Sterling still doing so poorly against the euro.
I've got a couple of thousand or so Euros tucked away for business trips to Europe, for example I'm doing an exhibition in Frankfurt in February. I was wondering should I cash them in for Sterling?
Not a really big deal but I was wondering if any of you have (or are about to) exchange any Euros you may have knocking around?
When in Greece this summer I was advised to get rid on any "Greek" euros that I had. Apparently the serial number (The Pre-fix) on all notes signifies which country issued them & if Greece goes bust the notes will be unusable. Anybody confirm this please ?
Perhaps they would officially be unusable but I can hardly see that everyone will be checking them. Will everyone in the future be checking the serial number on every note they receive? Do you even know what it is?
I currently have 2 x 20 euro notes starting U3 and 7x10 euro notes starting U6 (x5), U17 & U5.
This doesn't sound right to me. A euro is a euro like any other I would say, regardless of where it was printed.
Comments
You weren't top of the list of suspects Dave but you were certainly on it!
;-)
Fair play!
I've thinking today that it's best to envisage the collapse of the euro. I don't think it's unrealistic. It's perhaps a case of 7/1 against but I'm not willing to risk those odds. If I assume that the euro will collapse then I know that our savings will be converted to 'new francs.' But at what rate will that be? It could be the 6.55 to 1 euro they used back in 2001 but it could also be only 5 or less. Could it be more?
This is my (and any others Lifers living in the EU) problem at the moment (although I feel those around me and naive about it) but soon after it will become a UK problem. Would it even be worth transferring my money into pounds? Perhaps I should buy Chinese money (or even land in Indonesia as an Indonesian miner friend of mine suggested!)
But who can say? It's changing so fast and the politicians can't keep up with the pace set by the markets.
How we have got from a common market (which was an excellent thing) to a European super state beggars belief. Surely, if you are going to share a currency - you need to ensure the countries doing so have similar economies and are not basket cases like Greece. The Germans have got this thing in their heads about a European superstate stopping wars which has always been rubbish.
You will never have a single European country as the German and French People won't accept anything that lowers their standards - which a single country full of basket cases most definitely would. They are not particularly happy about having to bail out Greece!!!!
The whole idea about the EU was to get the thing established in the first place which happened with the Treaty of Rome in 1957. That allowed for tariffs between the nations to be first frozen then reduced to the point where they could be abolished. Over-time other elements of what was then the EEC were introduced such as free movement of labour and capital. The Euro was the longterm objective and to be fair it's still a good idea, but the problem has been allowing nations like Greece in before they were ready and as we can see they are dragging the whole thing down. Having one monetary policy is a big enough problem in the UK where there are disparities in wealth from say London and the South East to the north, doing this across a continent makes it even harder.
I can see the Euro being reduced to Germany, Benelux, France, maybe Italy and perhaps a couple of other nations.
They should face facts now - the greeks have effectively defaulted already. Harsh but we should cut em lose and put the effort into proping up economies that are still viable not pumping more cash into a doomed experiment. Walk away from the table, dont keep chasing your losses in the hope that your lucks got to change!
Good old Greeks, trying to make a Drachma out of a crisis.........
A few problems with the current plan...
1. Too little detail - "generate first steps towards fiscal & political union" is very warm & fuzzy but doesn't mean anything without detail. How are they going to achieve it?
2. The most important part is the extension of the EFSF and the creation of a firewall around Italy & Spain. A run on either is unthinkable (although there are obviously those thinking it!). The current plan is for the EFSF to absorb the first 10/20% of losses, but with Greek debt writedown likely to be 50% (or more) this number obviously sounds inadequate. In short €1TRN is too low, but Germany and others have refused to put more in or offer indefinite support from the ECB.
NOTE: Greek GDP is c.€340BN whereas Italy is at €2TRN! Italy currently have debt of €1.9TRN with €200BN due next year alone.
3. The other scheme to bolster the EFSF is to create Special Funds financed by investors and Sovereign Wealth funds. Firstly, each fnd is directed to one country or fund which is hardly spreading risk and secondly, if Germany are not prepared to commit more funds...why should they! Hence the pretty fruitless trip to China last week.
4. Back to Greece. The "haircut" must be voluntary to maintain the illusion that there is no default. If not, the Credit Default Swap (insurance premium) will be triggered and no-one has a clue what chaos that will cause!
As many have said...the scandal is that Greece and many others were allowed in in the first place. There was never a prayer that they could be confined to the narrow parameters which the powerhouse of Germany set!
Ha ha spot on.
Just been watching the BBC and Bloomberg coverage of the greatest financial minds in Europe scratching their heads as to the consequences and solution to the Euro crisis.
Presenter literally just cut away and said "....sorry to interupt but we have breaking news as Dave from Bexleyheath has just posted something on a football forum in between his contributions on the Would Ya and FIFA 12 threads that is quite possibly the answer!"
This. But do they actually have U bends?
While I was there in May the pool service guy (English) told me he'd just had his water bill - for 2009! He went to try to pay it and they told him to go away as they weren't geared up to take the money yet. The local post office had run out of stamps too.
But why does it matter? Why are the markets worried? The Greek GDP is about 2% of the EU's and is absolutely miniscule in World terms - probably producing about the same as a small town in China. Just tell them they are not getting any more money, chuck them out of the Eurozone and tell them to do what they like. A few banks will write off a few billion and the rest of us can get back to reality. Despite our contribution to their economy through tourism the UK is neither a major exporter to or importer from Greece.
As already stated Italy is likely to be the real issue down the line.
I currently have 2 x 20 euro notes starting U3 and 7x10 euro notes starting U6 (x5), U17 & U5.
This doesn't sound right to me. A euro is a euro like any other I would say, regardless of where it was printed.