I wonder if the six teams who will be competing for promotion come the end of the season have now risen to the top?
Looking at the table tonight, it seems about right, doesn't it?
Bournemouth are outside the top six and Soton are in there, which has to be correct.
And despite still narrow points margins, I can't see anyone from below joining the promotion contenders.
A few days ago I’d have said Shef Wed, but they looked like a team with problems at the Valley, and they had another very poor result at home tonight.
Swindon can't stop leaking goals. And the rest are really nothing teams . Carlisle, Dons, Bournemouth, Notts County, Oldham, Bristol Rovers? Hard to see any of them displacing the current top six, I'd say.
Can't remember how early the final top six emerged last season. They were certainly in position before Xmas and the same six were still there come May...
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Posh may be the weakest link, but no one below looks currently capable of sustaining the pace.
Should we dispense with PP now? (Oh dont start...)
We'll see about Peterborough next league match.
Two weeks ago, more people were looking down than up. Bit early to assume anything about ourselves, even if it was a great result.
Last season, I think Colchester dropped out of the top six late on in the season, in March or April. Swindon cemented their place last season with a run that started around now. Millwall something similar.
werent swindon and millway way outside the top six this time last yr??
League 1 - 1/11/09
Some differences in there, but you can see the teams on the rise
the top eight teams were all in the mix right up until the end of the season. I remember playing colchester at the Valley last year fully aware of how important that match was.
we could take a punt and say that the top eight this year will all be in the final mix come the end of this season, look who's in 5th then and now..
But otherwise, on Dec 5 2009, the top six contained five who would still be there five months later - the one exception being Millwall replacing Colchester...
Can see pretty much the same this season. Although it is all still very tight , it's unlikely to change much. Wednesday and Plymouth for Colchester and Peterborough (or even Charlton!) is possible. But I definitely get the feeling that one-third of the way through the season (which is where we are after 15 matches), the pattern has now been set.
Interesting how quickly things can begin to crystalise, because only 2-3 weeks ago, it all looked very fluid and unpredictable...
As for the rest, Peterborough have a great manager and much of their CCC squad so they will be there and Brighton are unlikely to slide out of the top six given their start.
I am not sure about Colchester - don't know enough about them - but I would be surprised if Sheffield Wednesday don't make a run, they have a decent squad and manager.
I think we deserve our top six place. Look at our bench tonight, as someone wrote in the post match thread. Most people acknowledged that Parky can bring in good players at this level. There'd been a big question mark about whether he can mould them into a team. But after tonight, the question mark looks a lot smaller.
I think we deserve our top six place. Look at our bench tonight, as someone wrote in the post match thread. Most people acknowledged that Parky can bring in good players at this level. There'd been a big question mark about whether he can mould them into a team. But after tonight, the question mark looks a lot smaller.[/quote]
Not sure about that Prague Addick, don't forget that Parkinson is "tactically inept" according to some of our keyboard experts on here :)
I wonder if Brighton will do a Leeds, their short pasing game works now but not so sure once the weather turns and some of the somme like pitches that we get in this league,coulddowith themlosing a couple now just to keepit interesting.
Poyet only wants them to play that way, but sometimes you have a game where it is better to go more direct. With the players we have we can do that if we have to.
Will be interesting to see if Brighton keep their form going over the winter. I think they will but perhaps not so many comfortable wins.
But there is a lot more football to be played yet (around two thirds) and as Charlton have shown teams that are written off can turn things around (or drop away).
Rochdale didn't finish their game, Plymouth could do well, Sheff Wed may get taken over.
Long long way to go yet. With the points so close two or three wins can move a team from bottom half to play-offs and three winless games do the opposite.
People in general and oddly experts in particular always fall into the trap of assuming that despite there being three quarters of a season to play, that things that happen in the first part of the season are a rock solid indicator of how they'll go later. Everyone is operating with fairly small squads - injuries, sales or loss of form could make all the difference. More to the point managers coming in or out will change things. If Poyet or Clark were to be tempted up a step or Sheff Wed were to bring someone sparkling in, it could all change. I think the only certainty is that the top six now will not be the top six at the end of the year.
Agree with that but relegated teams - as we know all too well - can be very fragile mentally and the longer they struggle then the more the pressure will build. Alan Irvine will be coming under a lot of pressure if they are not in the top six by the New Year.
As I see it;
I think Brighton's tippy tappy will come unstuck when the pitches cut up a little bit - you heard it here first
Colchester's small squad could work against them - don't know much about their reserves team to know if there is strength in depth
Southampton under their new gaffer are likely to be very strong now with their squad and money
Peterboro have money and a pretty decent squad but their unpredictability is their issue
I just don't get how certain teams being up there is "right" or "correct". Blackpool anyone?
And the question is if you were placing a bet, do you think the top six will still be there at the end of the season and , if not, which teams, do you expect to replace them?
My view is that , like last season, a patttern has established itself. Most of the sides with the best players, the best managers and the best resoures, have now risen to where you would more or less expect them to be. The top six who have emerged also now have momentum and are the sides to catch.
If I was putting money on it, I'd expect at least five of the current top six to be in the mix come the season's end. Colchester may be the biggest question mark and at the start of the season, you would certainly have backed Shef Wed to be up there. Swindon you would also have expected to be pushing after their good work last season.
However, Colchester may have learnt much from last season and I wouldn't bank on them falling away at the last hurdle again.
Swindon are terrible, by all accounts. And Shef Wed will have to up their game considerably because they were disappointing at the Valley, with no attacking threat and a panic-prone defence. They went the whole of September without a win (including four defeats) and are now without a win in their last three. The two Wednesday fans I spoke to on Saturday reckoned there was something seriously not right. Which isn't to say they won't fix things, of course.
Anyway, it will be interesting to return to this in five months and see if anyone has shot up the league and if any of the current leaders have fallen away. It could happen. Of course it could, and one would be foolish to deny it. Nevertheless, my money is on the top six looking very similar come the end of the season to what it is now. With Charlton in first or second place, natch.
People in general and oddly experts in particular always fall into the trap of assuming that despite there being three quarters of a season to play, that things that happen in the first part of the season are a rock solid indicator of how they'll go later. Everyone is operating with fairly small squads - injuries, sales or loss of form could make all the difference. More to the point managers coming in or out will change things. If Poyet or Clark were to be tempted up a step or Sheff Wed were to bring someone sparkling in, it could all change. I think the only certainty is that the top six now will not be the top six at the end of the year.[/quote]
Spot on.
No we didn't it has already been mentioned in this thread ;-)
To win the league Charlton are 22/1 (5th favs) and Sheff Wed 36/1
But for promotion Wednesday are a shorter price than us
Paul Benson still fifth fav for top goalscorer at 16/1 might be worth a punt!
A fair point, but pre-season I expected Charlton, Saints, Huddersfield, Brighton, Peterborough to be in the play-offs/direct promotion spots come the end of the season so to see them there now suggests that the bigger teams have started to sort out the shape of the league. The other team I thought would in that group is Swindon.
For Wednesday, it depends on how long they stick with Irvine if he can't turn things around. Big defeat for them at home to Huddersfield last night.
Then i reckon it is any from the next 5 to go with them
Charlton
Sheff Weds
Plymouth
Brighton
Huddersfield
I think the main contenders are beginning to emerge although any of MK Dons, Oldham or Bristol Rovers could come through as well as Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth as already mentioned above.
However we have to concentrate on our own performance and hope and pray that we avoid injuries, suspensions and January offers to and for our key players.
If we can do all that then we have half a chance but there is a long way to go so my feet are firmly planted on the ground.