You keep banging on about this new migrant every 5 minutes as the root cause of overstretched services. It simply isn't the case, if it were then the baby born every 100 seconds would be destroying our essential services.
Exactly. So the birth rate, increased life expectancy and non-eu immigration are causing a much higher impact to the population so why focus on an area of great financial benefit to the UK?
If we had an infrastructure designed to deal with 58m population which expands/contracts with the expected birth/death rate, then no problem. However, when you suddenly add 6 million people in 15 years then demand is likely to outstrip supply.
There may be a baby born every 100 seconds - but folk die too !
To keep the UK population to a sustainable level, we could outlaw/tax bigger families (China stylee) - no thanks For increased life expectancy we could enforce the Logan's Run system - no thanks
So there is not much we can do to make an impact, other than stem the flow - even if it's just a 5 year breather.
Non-EU migration is a fully controllable and visa based system for which the UK Government is accountable. Yes, I am sure there are abuses, but these folk do not have the free movement that EU citizens have.
As for the "area of great financial benefit to the UK" - it's not about the money, money, money. For me it's about the quality of life for the 66 million that live here now.
@Valiantphil, I admire your steadfast ability to just keep repeating the same thing with no additional evidence to support what you are saying. It is almost like you have been put into bat (nightwatchman?) by the Brexiteers on here, well done for keeping going.
The two most expensive periods of a persons life are when they are young and when they are old. Young because of the cost of medicine, birth and schooling and old because of the cost of care. The vast majority of migrants have finished schooling and are not near retirement age, they therefore cost the least and are in no way like the demographics of the people that are already here.
So we take the brightest and the best without paying for their education and early health costs. They are the brightest and the best because they have actually got off the backsides and moved to improve their lives. This will obviously have a negative effect on the countries they are leaving.
Most migrants then retire back to their country of origin saving us the costs of old age, but they continue to buy products that they got used to in whatever country they moved to.
What you say about the rapid increase in population in some areas is true but why haven't our government been using the additional tax receipts to expand the services that are needed. In fact in the last seven years they have been reducing services.
What you say about the average age may be true, but I don't know if there is any hard evidence of this. Maybe there is. The key point is: That maybe the case today but UK has no way of guaranteeing that the next migrant to arrive meets the demographic you describe, and worse is that should an EU country be deemed insufficient in its care of young or old - then what's stopping them coming to UK. The answer is nothing. We have no guarantee that a migrant will fit into any kind of category, intelligent, healthy, hard working or otherwise. This is what controlling immigration is all about for me. Anyone from a population of tens of millions is free to come anytime and settle anywhere. It can't go on.
The Gov't has had plenty of chances to take action as you say, but without the Tardis we can't change things.
I'm thinking of changing my handle to night watchman or joining the England cricket team in Oz - but I won't be needed there !
The figures on age of migrants are pretty consistent over decades and to all countries (not just the UK) so their is quite a lot of evidence and therefore there is no reason to believe that this will change. Older migrants are more likely to work in the highly skilled positions that we can't fill anyway so looking at past performance that might be desirable.
Stonemuse, dippenhall, chippy, valiantphil, and all the others who feel brexit isn't terrible are most welcome on this thread. All provide food for thought, all help sharpen my thinking, but so far none of them have persuaded me that there is anything good to come out of all this. As recently as yesterday in Parliament May talked about uniting the country after the UK leaves the EU. At the moment the idea of post brexit national unity is only about 2% of the debate, but as far as I can tell unity after brexit will be because the 48% will be expected to love the outcome for no particular reason at all. How does anybody on any side of this debate think our divided society can possibly come together?
Why do you need persuading? You have your view, others have theirs. People's views on this matter are firmly established and it would be more or less impossible for one to flip another.
One of the main things I've seen this thread is useful for, is to highlight a lot of the myths around what is the EU's fault and what is our own fault. Contrary to popular belief, not all the problems we have in this country are related to immigration or EU bureaucracy, and it's important that people realise that. I personally couldn't care less about the immigration situation. It's not a crisis and it's unlikely to be even after Brexit, because as many have pointed out, there will still be immigration, from all over the world, including the EU, there just may be a few more hurdles to jump through. But those that are keen to come and live and work in this country will do whatever it takes.
Brexit is a step into the unknown, and it's likely that there will be some suffering, but we will have to adapt. There are many countries out there in the world who are doing pretty well who are not part of the EU, and there's no reason we cannot be one of those countries, but change is going to be required. Our government put two options on the table, leave or remain. Voters made a choice, now it's up to the government, not the individual voter, to find a solution to the problems we have.
I voted to leave for business reasons. I import and export goods to and from countries that are mostly outside of the EU. The EU wheels turn very slowly and hoping for trade deals with China, India, South American and African countries, any time soon, is folly. I took a gamble in that if the UK is outside of the EU, they will have to work quickly to get as many deals with other nations as possible, to offset any loss that may arise as a result of a less lucrative deal with EU countries. This could be a boost to my business. Time will tell, but I'm happy with my decision and am willing to accept short term pain for (hopefully) long term gain. Within the EU my business was never going to progress, outside I have a chance.
One thing people are going to have to accept, is that a deal with the EU is going to come at a cost. Just like every trade deal in the world comes at a cost. This might be signing up regulatory framework or accepting certain conditions, we aren't going to have it all our way. There is a very long way to go in these negotiations, and there will be lots of twists and turns, and we are not going to be able to have our cake and eat it, that was never, ever going to happen. But we can get a workable deal, even if it's not going to be as beneficial as the one we have now. Both sides NEED a deal, and all this bluster we hear from our government and EU officials is ridiculous. I wish they would all just shut up and get on with it.
Whether there will be unity after Brexit remains to be seen. It's likely that both leavers and remainers will have some bitter pills to swallow. But ultimately what are people going to do, cry into their milk for the remainder of their days or try to look forward and make the best of what is to come?
Thank you for this answer. I probably, no definitely qualify as a milk cryer for what ever days I have left because the money and the finance means as little to me as immigration does to you. There can never be any kind of good deal in my view because we will have split from our EU neighbours, and all kinds of unfortunate genies out of the bottle, the damage now done cannot be undone. I am sorry, but there is nothing to look forward to or make the best of for me. Can you help me out by suggesting anything?
Well I'm the eternal optimist so there is always so much to look forward to. On a personal level, things like watching my kids grow up (or grand-children if you are of a certain age), enjoying life with my family in general, holidays, hobbies, getting rid of Roland, our rise again to the Premier League, etc etc. There's more to life than politics.
I was speaking politically. In the political sense where I once thought the UK had made a positive political move forward in my lifetime, I must now watch it get thrown away. I have relatives in Ireland and Germany so on a personal level that does have an impact, as well as the rise of low level casual racism towards my son since the referendum. In that context a 'deal' means little to me, and I can see no benefits at all, especially when contemplating the practicalities that the UK politicians are supposed to deal with. If you can persuade me that brexit will be any good on a non personal level I am all ears, because on a personal level it is already damaging.
It goes back to what I said previously I guess. Both sides are going to have some bitter pills to swallow. Remainers because the referendum result went against them and leavers because it was tight and the 48% needs to be recognised. I believe that during the negotiations, the UK will need to soften their approach to Brexit if they want a satisfactory deal that our parliament will ratify. It's about compromise, which people hate to do, but sometimes it's necessary. There are often many things in our lives that are beyond our control, and this is one of those situations.
I feel for you and more particularly for your son as nobody should be subjected to that type of behaviour, but unfortunately I don't have the answers you need. I can't tell you how to cope going forward, it's something that the individual is going to need to work out for themselves. Clearly the first thing we all need to do is to wait and see how the next phase of negotiations go, so we can build up a picture of what our future is going to look like. Only then can we understand what it all means for each of us personally.
This is much more elegant than the abridged version: 'you lost get over it', so thank you for taking the trouble. I am very much aware that I am the loser, and in order to cope with the disappointment of losing I won't swallow the bitter pill until I have thoroughly examined it's ingredients.
I really didn't mean to give a fluffy version of 'you lost get over it' so I apologies if I offended, it wasnt my intention. But I guess the reality of the situation is that there will be far more losers than winners.
I mean how many leave voters are going to be happy at the end of all this with the obvious conclusion that it's not all going to go the way they want?
I'm struggling to think of a similar situation in which large parts of the electorate, no matter which way they voted, are unhappy with a final outcome. It must be unprecedented.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
Fudge and ultimately independence which will lead to greater prosperity over time.
But we were/are already an independent sovereign state? We just happen to be in a trade agreement that requires regulatory alignment, not a colony.
And the myth that we would be more prosperous outside the EU has been well and truly dispelled by more or less every credible professional. The countries lining up for a trade deal post-Brexit as UKIP and Boris promised simply hasn't materialised and all predictions point to is returning to the 1970s status we had on the continent. Already we are not seeing the levels of growth the rest of the world is currently enjoying and the Treasury has had to concede several times that Brexit is damaging and will continue to damage our economy for the foreseeable future.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
Fudge and ultimately independence which will lead to greater prosperity over time.
Depends how you define prosperity. The UK is already independent.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
Except for the clear line from the EU that services will not form part of any FTA (or at least any more part than in other FTAs recently or currently being ratified), and that most, if not all, of what has been agreed in principle can fall by the wayside (the commitment on the Irish border is actually more restricting for the UK than what is suggested should there be a deal), you might be right.
PS. The methodology for calculating commitments, rather than any bill, has been agreed.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
You were never going to get away with using the 'okay' or 'satisfied' bombs without the cavalry charging in
Stay strong and tell them to just trust you. It's a valid line that should not be questioned.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
Fudge and ultimately independence which will lead to greater prosperity over time.
While not always a terribly serious individual, I am not sure I would vote for anything on the basis of confectionary cravings....
Don't get me wrong, I quite like fudge, but it does get a bit sickly in a very short space of time, and I'm not sure that there is enough of a world market in it to claim that it will eventually lead to greater prosperity (unless you happen to be a confectioner).
But I suppose it does make a change from some of the other reasons for voting, one way or the other, in the referendum.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
Fudge and ultimately independence which will lead to greater prosperity over time.
While not always a terribly serious individual, I am not sure I would vote for anything on the basis of confectionary cravings....
Don't get me wrong, I quite like fudge, but it does get a bit sickly in a very short space of time, and I'm not sure that there is enough of a world market in it to claim that it will eventually lead to greater prosperity (unless you happen to be a confectioner).
But I suppose it does make a change from some of the other reasons for voting, one way or the other, in the referendum.
How outrageous that these low information, naive people were taken in by Labour. They were obviously too stupid to read the manifesto and therefore their votes should not really count as they really did not know what they were voting for. In fact, why should they have the vote anyway as they were prepared to betray the old generation who do read manifestos. The voting age should be raised to 45 until these young, stupid, naive voters grow up enough to leave their youthful delusions behind and become Leavers, like all sensible grown up people.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
Fudge and ultimately independence which will lead to greater prosperity over time.
While not always a terribly serious individual, I am not sure I would vote for anything on the basis of confectionary cravings....
Don't get me wrong, I quite like fudge, but it does get a bit sickly in a very short space of time, and I'm not sure that there is enough of a world market in it to claim that it will eventually lead to greater prosperity (unless you happen to be a confectioner).
But I suppose it does make a change from some of the other reasons for voting, one way or the other, in the referendum.
The divorce bill The Irish border solution The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
If you're okay with paying £40b and our economy not doing as well as it could, our trade deal not being anywhere near as good as now and the Irish border solution which looks like no divergence from EU law and therefore the rest of the UK also following suit, what exactly did you vote Leave for?
Fudge and ultimately independence which will lead to greater prosperity over time.
While not always a terribly serious individual, I am not sure I would vote for anything on the basis of confectionary cravings....
Don't get me wrong, I quite like fudge, but it does get a bit sickly in a very short space of time, and I'm not sure that there is enough of a world market in it to claim that it will eventually lead to greater prosperity (unless you happen to be a confectioner).
But I suppose it does make a change from some of the other reasons for voting, one way or the other, in the referendum.
How outrageous that these low information, naive people were taken in by Labour. They were obviously too stupid to read the manifesto and therefore their votes should not really count as they really did not know what they were voting for. In fact, why should they have the vote anyway as they were prepared to betray the old generation who do read manifestos. The voting age should be raised to 45 until these young, stupid, naive voters grow up enough to leave their youthful delusions behind and become Leavers, like all sensible grown up people.
From a questionnaire of c. 1000 students. With 130 universities in the UK that is less than 8 students per university. Clearly a robust methodology.
As he said there is a lot of hysteria about the place.
Lots of other issues in the Uk that are more significant than brexit and I look forward to an optimistic future.
Some of us will never agree.
Do we need to even agree? brexit won. The winners can impose anything on the losers and it doesn't need any agreement between winners and losers if that's what you mean. I asked yesterday about May saying that the country needs to unite, to come together, and if anybody had any idea how that might happen. One idea is for remainers like me to shut up and learn to love big brother brexit whatever it is like, to stop complaining, or do what one of the brexit mantras says, to stop talking the country down. Is that the only option, shut up and put up?
How outrageous that these low information, naive people were taken in by Labour. They were obviously too stupid to read the manifesto and therefore their votes should not really count as they really did not know what they were voting for. In fact, why should they have the vote anyway as they were prepared to betray the old generation who do read manifestos. The voting age should be raised to 45 until these young, stupid, naive voters grow up enough to leave their youthful delusions behind and become Leavers, like all sensible grown up people.
Good to see that you agree with what a lot of us have been saying about the EU referendum.
A phrase that seems to be a favourite of MPs at the moment is 'keep the benefits of'
E.g. leave the single market but keep the benefits of it
Or out of the customs union but keep the benefits of it
Is this just meaningless shit?
Not at all! The Labour Manifesto spoke to accepting the manifesto result and putting the national interest first. They talked of "ending Theresa May's reckless approach" and rejected "no deal" as a viable option. Whilst at the same time they committed to a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union. From the Trade section "The EU accounts for 44 per cent of our current exports and will continue to be a priority trading partner. As our trading relationship with the EU changes it is vital that we retain unrestricted access for our goods and services."
That was politically acceptable at the time. The Lib Dems tried to object to the referendum without much electoral success. That is the outcome they were always looking for and they subsequently committed to staying in the SM and CU during the transition period around August time. In contrast the government have said diddly squat about what they want!
What we have all been waiting for is the recent statement from M.Barnier suggesting that there are no arrangements for services in an FTA. 2018 will shed yet more light on the real options available. Public opinion and MPs will then be able to assert themselves. Not on Leave/Remain where polls are still close but on the three options available, namely Abort the Process (Remain), Norway (+CU) and Canada. At present the polls suggest a majority for staying in the SM/CU and it is only hard line leavers who object.
Hard Brexit, even with an FTA has minority support in the country and quite possibly in Parliament. "Canada+++" does not exist and nor does a parallel customs union, i.e., the options you mention. We are either in or out of the Single Market and Customs Union. Either the UK wants frictionless trade for 44% of its exports plus all of the FTAs which have been agreed between the EU and around 50 countries or it doesn't. If any group wants an alternative to the SM/CU option then they have 2018 to scope it out and agree it with the EU27. At the same time MPs who wish to "keep the benefits of the SM/CU" arrangement will have to align with one of the choices are on the table.
One could describe the entire process as meaningless bullshit and a pointless waste of time but it's something that our country has had to do because of a campaign run by Farage, Johnson and the Mail / Telegraph for decades, which Cameron allowed to develop into a 50%+1 referendum. None of this can be put back in the box easily. Only as we approach deadlines do minds become focussed and we move away from the slogan on the bus.
However the EU27 just sigh and continue to roll out statements about the path and where we are going. Ultimately one can hope that Parliament or even a second referendum will settle the options question. Now that will be taking back control!
As he said there is a lot of hysteria about the place.
Lots of other issues in the Uk that are more significant than brexit and I look forward to an optimistic future.
Some of us will never agree.
Do we need to even agree? brexit won. The winners can impose anything on the losers and it doesn't need any agreement between winners and losers if that's what you mean. I asked yesterday about May saying that the country needs to unite, to come together, and if anybody had any idea how that might happen. One idea is for remainers like me to shut up and learn to love big brother brexit whatever it is like, to stop complaining, or do what one of the brexit mantras says, to stop talking the country down. Is that the only option, shut up and put up?
I think we could probably agree that refererenda are divisive.
I would probably describe myself as a very soft even (fudgier) brexiteer. If Parliament reject the final deal and if ultimately there is to be a second referendum I would accept the outcome if it were greater than 52/48 to remain in the eu. If not it goes to a third and final playoff with extra time and penalties.
As he said there is a lot of hysteria about the place.
Lots of other issues in the Uk that are more significant than brexit and I look forward to an optimistic future.
Some of us will never agree.
Do we need to even agree? brexit won. The winners can impose anything on the losers and it doesn't need any agreement between winners and losers if that's what you mean. I asked yesterday about May saying that the country needs to unite, to come together, and if anybody had any idea how that might happen. One idea is for remainers like me to shut up and learn to love big brother brexit whatever it is like, to stop complaining, or do what one of the brexit mantras says, to stop talking the country down. Is that the only option, shut up and put up?
Another option is to never miss the opportunity to highlight each and every negative impact of Brexit for the next few decades and never give up campaigning to get the UK back into the EU.
Comments
The figures on age of migrants are pretty consistent over decades and to all countries (not just the UK) so their is quite a lot of evidence and therefore there is no reason to believe that this will change. Older migrants are more likely to work in the highly skilled positions that we can't fill anyway so looking at past performance that might be desirable.
I mean how many leave voters are going to be happy at the end of all this with the obvious conclusion that it's not all going to go the way they want?
I'm struggling to think of a similar situation in which large parts of the electorate, no matter which way they voted, are unhappy with a final outcome. It must be unprecedented.
E.g. leave the single market but keep the benefits of it
Or out of the customs union but keep the benefits of it
Is this just meaningless shit?
(From news night)
The divorce bill
The Irish border solution
The agreement on Eu citizens and British citizens
I'm ok with the proposed transition period and associated terms outlined by barnier and
If we get a sensible Canada plus deal inc services which is in the best interests of European citizens numbering 600m including us then I will be satisfied my leave vote was the right one.
And the myth that we would be more prosperous outside the EU has been well and truly dispelled by more or less every credible professional. The countries lining up for a trade deal post-Brexit as UKIP and Boris promised simply hasn't materialised and all predictions point to is returning to the 1970s status we had on the continent. Already we are not seeing the levels of growth the rest of the world is currently enjoying and the Treasury has had to concede several times that Brexit is damaging and will continue to damage our economy for the foreseeable future.
The real price of Brexit begins to emerge
FT research shows that the weekly hit to the British economy could be the same £350m that Leave campaigners promised to claw back
The UK is already independent.
PS. The methodology for calculating commitments, rather than any bill, has been agreed.
As he said there is a lot of hysteria about the place.
Lots of other issues in the Uk that are more significant than brexit and I look forward to an optimistic future.
Some of us will never agree.
Stay strong and tell them to just trust you. It's a valid line that should not be questioned.
Don't get me wrong, I quite like fudge, but it does get a bit sickly in a very short space of time, and I'm not sure that there is enough of a world market in it to claim that it will eventually lead to greater prosperity (unless you happen to be a confectioner).
But I suppose it does make a change from some of the other reasons for voting, one way or the other, in the referendum.
55% of students who voted Labour in The General election thought that Labour was anti-Brexit.
How outrageous that these low information, naive people were taken in by Labour. They were obviously too stupid to read the manifesto and therefore their votes should not really count as they really did not know what they were voting for. In fact, why should they have the vote anyway as they were prepared to betray the old generation who do read manifestos. The voting age should be raised to 45 until these young, stupid, naive voters grow up enough to leave their youthful delusions behind and become Leavers, like all sensible grown up people.
shisugar stirrers.The blue button on this page radfordsfinefudge.co.uk/ would seem to meet at least part of @Imissthepeanutman's referendum "urges"....
brexit won.
The winners can impose anything on the losers and it doesn't need any agreement between winners and losers if that's what you mean.
I asked yesterday about May saying that the country needs to unite, to come together, and if anybody had any idea how that might happen.
One idea is for remainers like me to shut up and learn to love
big brotherbrexit whatever it is like, to stop complaining, or do what one of the brexit mantras says, to stop talking the country down.Is that the only option, shut up and put up?
I'm still not actually sure what the current position on this is?
May has also confirmed we are leaving Euratom, which experts have warned will jeopardise our ability to treat cancer patients.
That was politically acceptable at the time. The Lib Dems tried to object to the referendum without much electoral success. That is the outcome they were always looking for and they subsequently committed to staying in the SM and CU during the transition period around August time. In contrast the government have said diddly squat about what they want!
What we have all been waiting for is the recent statement from M.Barnier suggesting that there are no arrangements for services in an FTA. 2018 will shed yet more light on the real options available. Public opinion and MPs will then be able to assert themselves. Not on Leave/Remain where polls are still close but on the three options available, namely Abort the Process (Remain), Norway (+CU) and Canada. At present the polls suggest a majority for staying in the SM/CU and it is only hard line leavers who object.
Hard Brexit, even with an FTA has minority support in the country and quite possibly in Parliament. "Canada+++" does not exist and nor does a parallel customs union, i.e., the options you mention. We are either in or out of the Single Market and Customs Union. Either the UK wants frictionless trade for 44% of its exports plus all of the FTAs which have been agreed between the EU and around 50 countries or it doesn't. If any group wants an alternative to the SM/CU option then they have 2018 to scope it out and agree it with the EU27. At the same time MPs who wish to "keep the benefits of the SM/CU" arrangement will have to align with one of the choices are on the table.
One could describe the entire process as meaningless bullshit and a pointless waste of time but it's something that our country has had to do because of a campaign run by Farage, Johnson and the Mail / Telegraph for decades, which Cameron allowed to develop into a 50%+1 referendum. None of this can be put back in the box easily. Only as we approach deadlines do minds become focussed and we move away from the slogan on the bus.
However the EU27 just sigh and continue to roll out statements about the path and where we are going. Ultimately one can hope that Parliament or even a second referendum will settle the options question. Now that will be taking back control!
I would probably describe myself as a very soft even (fudgier) brexiteer. If Parliament reject the final deal and if ultimately there is to be a second referendum I would accept the outcome if it were greater than 52/48 to remain in the eu. If not it goes to a third and final playoff with extra time and penalties.
But a lot more fudge between then and now.